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Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-05-25 14-14-44.png Screenshot from 2020-05-26 14-20-38.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31007 confirmed infected --- 219 more
- 18096 recovered --- 274 more
- 1342 fatalities --- 12 more
- 313886 suspected cases --- 2663 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change yet again ... STILL ...
- 1815 waiting for test results --- 84 less
- 26392 under watch from authorities --- 57 less
- 513 hospitalized --- 18 less
- 71 in ICU --- 1 less
 

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Tuesday weekly update on total deaths (highest 5 + Brazil - 6th anyway).
Rounding is: < .5% down, >.5% up

USA - 100,371 -- 8% up (was 12%)
UK - 37,048 -- 5% up (was 8%)
Italy - 32,955 -- 2% up (was 4%)
France - 28530 -- 6% up (was 4%)
Spain - 27,117 --1% up (was 3%) -- technically, 0.007% up

Brazil - 23,622 -- 35% up (was 45% up)


Six weeks ago, New York accounted for half of the US death total. Now it's less than a third, so in evolution of the spread, the brakes are well and truly on. I think from now on, it'll be a more gradual climb but it'll still climb.
France's figure was the only one of the top 6 to get a higher climb this week.
Brazil's rate has dropped but it's still on a crazy trajectory. But, in context, its got a huge population and a basket load of poverty.

It'll take another two weeks to see if the relaxation measures in the larger EU countries have any effect on deaths. If people use common sense and new cases are traced and tracked, it can be controlled.
 
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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-05-26 14-20-38.png Screenshot from 2020-05-27 14-02-29.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31292 confirmed infected --- 285 more
- 18349 recovered --- 253 more
- 1356 fatalities --- 14 more
- 316364 suspected cases --- 2478 more
- 689705 tests taken --- no change yet again ... STILL ...
- 1886 waiting for test results --- 71 more
- 27141 under watch from authorities --- 749 more
- 510 hospitalized --- 3 less
- 66 in ICU --- 5 less

Of today's 285 new cases, 271 were in Great Lisbon and Tejo Valley areas: this is our current biggest headache regarding this virus, with a few hot spots detected which, though not big in numbers, still add up.

A news channel was reporting earlier that Portugal has conducted over 750K tests but i can't find that number anywhere in the official DGS site (Portuguese health site), which is why that number has, in the pics i've posted, remained the same for many days now.
 
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Unfortunately, the Hospitalization numbers in Maryland have begun to rise for two days in a row.

May 15th was the "Phase 1 easing of lockdown" for most of Maryland. That marks today as day 12 after the lockdown has been lifted. I don't believe this is a good sign. I'm hoping this is a temporary blip, but given the correlation with the phase-1 easing, it is quite possible that Maryland opened up too quickly.
 
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Unfortunately, the Hospitalization numbers in Maryland have begun to rise for two days in a row.

May 15th was the "Phase 1 easing of lockdown" for most of Maryland. That marks today as day 12 after the lockdown has been lifted. I don't believe this is a good sign. I'm hoping this is a temporary blip, but given the correlation with the phase-1 easing, it is quite possible that Maryland opened up too quickly.

2 days in a row doesn't mean much: if it were 4 or 5, then you'd have "a situation" on your hands.

Portugal eased restrictions on May 4th. Here's Portugal's hospitalizations (blue) and ICU (orange) numbers:

Screenshot from 2020-05-27 23-35-15.png


As you can see, we also had a few "blips" along the way, though we had them sooner than you, apparently.
 

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That's true. But you gotta have 2 days in a row before you have 4 days in a row. We'll see on Friday where things go from here. Hopefully its a temporary blip.

You do have a point.

Hope so!

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-05-27 14-02-29.png Screenshot from 2020-05-28 13-57-53.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31596 confirmed infected --- 304 more
- 18637 recovered --- 288 more
- 1369 fatalities --- 13 more
- 318810 suspected cases --- 2446 more
- 778698 tests taken --- 88993 more but this is several days worth of tests taken
- 1310 waiting for test results --- 576 less
- 27563 under watch from authorities --- 442 more
- 512 hospitalized --- 2 more
- 65 in ICU --- 1 less

Portuguese health site messed up, having hospitalized and ICU numbers switched.

While most of the country is doing fairly well, Lisbon and Tejo River Valley is cause for concern because the vast majority of new cases are in this region: it has several small hot spots with infected cases, though none big in numbers, for now. They still add up, though :(

They finally updated tests taken numbers, after several days without doing so. This is something that actually makes me proud because a small country like Portugal actually manages to be current #17 worldwide in tests taken per 1M people. To put this number in perspective, Portugal has just under 100K tests less taken than Brazil but Brazil has over 20 times our population, which is why we have over 74K tests per 1M people VS Brazil's 4.1K per 1M people, and we're ahead of countries like UK, Italy, Germany, Russia and Belgium, to name just a few.
 
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So, the "2 days in a row" is as far as that blip got, with -4 hospitalized today. Not enough to reverse the blip, but not enough to continue it. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

On the other hand, the coronavirus.maryland.gov site is now reporting volume-tested over time and % positive. With a +16353 tests done yesterday (!!), Maryland's %positive rate has dropped to 12.5%. I did hear that some COVID19 testing centers opened up in my area (at currently closed amusement parks and fairgrounds). But I didn't realize that we've increased testing capacity so much.
 
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Pretty sure it isn't. Heart disease and cancer kill about 50,000 per month and COVID-19 is about 33,000 per month.

That is with all the measures that were in place, and without a health care system that got overburdened. In many countries where they are, the numbers are very likely much higher.

There is no question that if you leave this unchecked, you will simply lose a good 5-9% of the world population, most notably elderly. That is a vast majority of everybody's parents and maybe grandparents we are talking about. Perhaps yours.

I think, the order of things here should be different when we consider such things.
First. You have a discussion in the public space about what the people prefer and in what measure. Right now, the motivation behind lockdown and re-opening is purely economical and healthcare based. Is that broad enough? What sacrifices are we willing to make, when are we willing to 'stop caring'? Those questions remain unanswered, and until we have those answers, we have, all, together supported and paid for a system that said every life was to be saved to our best ability.

That is the principle at work here and that is why these lockdowns were initiated. The worldwide consensus is that health and safety are regarded as higher value than anything else (even if that is not available to every person, note). Its not strange either, because that is the basis for economic growth and prosperity; a healthy workforce. Turning around on that without careful deliberation is a pretty big thing, and to me reads as kneejerk response, or, the real panic of losing what you once had. I'm not saying you didn't think it through, but did you?

In my view, the inescapable reality here is that we will be in limbo for several years or until an effective treatment that is low cost and can be applied to large part of the population is available. And/or a vaccine can be widely distributed. Anything else, such as this talk of a 'new normal' where we avoid physical contact and keep social distancing, is just not normal and never will be. Society and all of its functions will be rendered economically broken for a loooong time. Everything we do now in the public space will be much more costly and not viable. You can find very creative solutions around that, but none of them will return a normal of any kind. So its either a harsh discussion on what sacrifices we want to make, or its just waiting it out with minimal physical contact and maximum distance - ie partial lockdown.

There are tons of ridiculous examples of this new normal too, as we are reopening over here, and a lot of them don't even seem to make sense. Its like fighting the obvious. If you release the crowds you will get crowds, its just that simple, and I don't think everyone is responsible or capable enough to recognize for themselves when they need to get their test and apply self quarantine. Heck, not even our own leaders were capable enough to see that. That seems to be our 'exit strategy'. Its gonna be bumpy for sure. And if its not, we have overestimated the threat after all, let's hope so...
 
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In my view, the inescapable reality here is that we will be in limbo for several years or until an effective treatment that is low cost and can be applied to large part of the population is available. .

There is, unless you are in the at-risk population or with a pre-existing condition it's called bed rest. Ask me how I know.
 

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In undeveloped parts of the world, sure. In USA? 0.4% or less:

Reason is a very biased source. Case in point, lets look at the table from the CDC page directly: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

1590743648445.png


As you can see, the CDC scenarios in the table suggest anywhere from 0.2% to 1% death rates, depending on assumptions. The 0.4% rate is actually what the CDC expects is the "likely" scenario, but they include 1% fatality rates because its a possibility (since so many parameters of this disease remain unknown).

The 1% fatality rate implicitly assumes that hospitals will NOT be overrun. Italy had 8%+ death rates for example as their hospitals were overrun. This could happen if say... we run out of ventilators. Under a ventilator shortage, the 5% of people who need ventilators would die. True, nearly 0.5% to 1% of people will die no matter what you do with COVID19, but really think about how the hospitalization system works. Every ICU case is basically a life saved (and the hospitalization rate is a life somewhat saved: they may have not died from the disease, but the hospital visit almost certainly treated the person and made them feel better somewhat).

If that hospital system is overrun, the disease gets much much worse.
 

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The problem is undercounting of asymptomatic cases. Even with Italy's mess, it was 8% of those tested. The more people you test, the more you find are asymptomatic or mild, the lower the fatality rate drops.


Hospitals?
"...preparing for a COVID-19 surge that never came..."
 
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The problem is undercounting of asymptomatic cases. Even with Italy's mess, it was 8% of those tested. The more people you test, the more you find are asymptomatic or mild, the lower the fatality rate drops.

Italy's testing-per-capita is on-par with the USA's.

Hospitals?

Do you recognize that you change subjects whenever your points aren't sticking?
 

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Italy's testing-per-capita is on-par with the USA's.
That doesn't really mean anything when you're testing the sick repeatedly and the not sick rarely. Countries are inconsistent with who gets tested and how much they're tested. Nevermind the fact the tests have accuracy problems.

Do you recognize that you change subjects whenever your points aren't sticking?
You asserted that hospitals are being overrun. It maybe only happened in 2 or 3 cities out of hundreds. The article is talking about the opposite actually happening: they are being overstaffed and underrun with cases. Your assertion, for the vast majority of the United States anyway, is focusing on the <1% while the >99% are bleeding money/resources.
 
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Do you recognize that you change subjects whenever your points aren't sticking?

Yeah, its annoying isn't it. Its a well known fact by now that densely populated areas get struck hard and the rest of the country scaled up based on that prognosis, so yes, you will find hospitals overstaffed in the countryside while around population hubs they get swamped. That is what you get when POTUS tells the states to figure everything out for themselves...

But its easier to focus on a misguided 'fact' than to face the truth. Happens a lot and not just with him - it is very human. Truths do not change for it though.
 

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Yeah, its annoying isn't it. Its a well known fact by now that densely populated areas get struck hard and the rest of the country scaled up based on that prognosis, so yes, you will find hospitals overstaffed in the countryside while around population hubs they get swamped. That is what you get when POTUS tells the states to figure everything out for themselves...

But its easier to focus on a misguided 'fact' than to face the truth. Happens a lot and not just with him - it is very human. Truths do not change for it though.
Let me tell you a story. A sleepy county of 20,000ish people had about 150 cases of COVID-19. But they have a dirty little secret...they slaughter 17,250 pigs a day (3.5% of US pork production) for the greater good. The company behind that tested all their staff for COVID-19 and discovered 555, or 22% of their workers, tested positive! And then there was 702 cases in the county:
Iowa.png

They never stopped working throughout the pandemic and they've had no reported deaths. That's over 2.5% of their population and they haven't even begun testing the greater public!

I was in the town with the meatpacker a week ago.

Don't patronize me.
 
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Let me tell you a story. A sleepy town of 10,000ish people had about 150 cases of COVID-19. But they have a dirty little secret...they slaughter 17,250 pigs a day for the greater good. The company behind that tested all their staff for COVID-19 and discovered 555, or 22% of their workers, tested positive! And then there was 702 cases in the county:
View attachment 157072
That's over 5% of their population and they haven't even begun testing the great public!

I was in that town a week ago.

Don't patronize me.

And what conclusions do you draw from that? Help me understand your madness here. Isn't that a confirmation that you need to keep the lid on this?
 

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No, the only reason why it is particularly lethal is because of the fact it is novel. You're looking at the fifth strain of known coronavirus to become the common cold. The first hill is painful to climb but what we're doing to ourselves now is worse.

SARS-CoV-2 isn't the black plague. It's time to move on and that means regulating local populations against local hospital capacity to handle it.


Anyway, derailed this thread enough. Further discussion should be here:
 

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Portugal's numbers have been updated:

Screenshot from 2020-05-28 13-57-53.png Screenshot from 2020-05-29 14-19-14.png

On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 31946 confirmed infected --- 350 more
- 18911 recovered --- 274 more
- 1383 fatalities --- 14 more
- 321290 suspected cases --- 2840 more
- 778698 tests taken --- no change
- 1568 waiting for test results --- 258 more
- 27917 under watch from authorities --- 354 more
- 529 hospitalized --- 17 more
- 66 in ICU --- 1 more

This isn't looking good: the situation in Lisbon and Tejo River Valley area is escalating, though slightly but with consistency and that isn't good @ all.

Compare the following, and pay close attention to "Lisbon", "Sintra" and "Loures" numbers, which are a snapshot from May 24th, yesterday and today, respectively:

Screenshot from 2020-05-29 14-15-45.png
Screenshot from 2020-05-28 13-57-53.png
Screenshot from 2020-05-29 14-20-20.png


Though there are areas with higher numbers, there's virtually no change in the other areas while the counties i mentioned have significant increases, when compared to daily new cases, country wide.
 
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I was in the town with the meatpacker a week ago.

Don't patronize me.

And now you're talking about meatpackers, changing the subject again. I'm not trying to be patronizing, but its not worth my time to omnislash your posts and do a point-by-point rebuttal when you're unable to even stick to one subject.

What do you even want to talk about? Hospitals? Meatpackers? Italy's death rate? I'm not going to discuss everything with you when its clear you just drop subjects whenever the facts on the ground become inconvenient. Literally every post of yours changes the subject this page.
 
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And now you're talking about meatpackers, changing the subject again.
Topics of conversation meander naturally. Everyone does it to one degree or another.
I'm not trying to be patronizing
It's coming off that way.
but its not worth my time to omnislash your posts and do a point-by-point rebuttal when you're unable to even stick to one subject.
Then let it go.
What do you even want to talk about? Hospitals? Meatpackers? Italy's death rate? I'm not going to discuss everything with you when its clear you just drop subjects whenever the facts on the ground become inconvenient. Literally every post of yours changes the subject this page.
Interestingly enough, he's actually trying to stay on topic. You are not. Let it go.
 

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In undeveloped parts of the world, sure. In USA? 0.4% or less:

Using your own source material, it's misleading to use a blanket figure of 0.4%.

From the article you linked:

If you focus on hard-hit areas such as New York and New Jersey, an IFR between 0.2 and 0.3 percent, as suggested by the CDC's current best estimate, seems improbably low. "While most of these numbers are reasonable, the mortality rates shade far too low," University of Washington biologist Carl Bergstrom told CNN. "Estimates of the numbers infected in places like NYC are way out of line with these estimates."

But the CDC's estimate looks more reasonable when compared to the results of antibody studies in Miami-Dade County, Santa Clara County, Los Angeles County, and Boise, Idaho—places that so far have had markedly different experiences with COVID-19. We need to consider the likelihood that these divergent results reflect not just methodological issues but actual differences in the epidemic's impact—differences that can help inform the policies for dealing with it.

The US is too big to consider as one country (in the sense of this pandemic). It's a whole bunch of very different places. Each state needs it's own methods. 0.4% doesn't wash with some states and no matter how much people want to blame governers for decisions, hindsight's a wonderful thing. Remember, the leaders of nations (yours and mine) were both saying early on how it wasn't a problem. That's leaders, and they're meant to lead.

“We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

That approach was taken by almost everybody apart from a few outliers (those that enacted immediate and strict track & trace, or those who went further with quarantine). So this isn't a Trump thing, so many world leaders had the same nonchalant approach.

But let's not massage numbers by quoting the lowest mortality rate that can't be applied to a populace dense area. The care home deaths are prevalent in all countries with high covid-19 cases. Florida made a wise decision but that was the exception (unfortunately), not the rule. Again, hindsight.
 
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That approach was taken by almost everybody apart from a few outliers (those that enacted immediate and strict track & trace, or those who went further with quarantine). So this isn't a Trump thing, so many world leaders had the same nonchalant approach.

and many still do even in the thick of it *looking at Brazil*
 
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