Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

Hospitalizations breaking the +1, +5, and +9 trend over the last three days with -20 today. %Positive increases by negligible 0.04%.

Hard to tell if Maryland is getting better or worse. "Plateau" is probably the best word.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 42782 confirmed infected --- 328 more
- 28097 recovered --- 299 more
- 1587 fatalities --- 8 more
- 384973 suspected cases --- 2155 more
- 1190384 tests taken --- unknown - would not load, and i tried several times
- 1380 waiting for test results --- 70 less
- 31274 under watch from authorities --- 115 less
- 510 hospitalized --- 7 more
- 77 in ICU --- 2 less

Single digit daily death toll for the 27th consecutive day. Yesterday, by mistake, i said the daily death toll increase was 8: it was in fact 3.

Whoever updates the Portuguese health site has messed up again: not only does the tests taken not load, on the country's map they placed Lisbon and Tejo River Valley region's cases in the center region ...

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 43156 confirmed infected --- 374 more
- 28424 recovered --- 327 more
- 1598 fatalities --- 11 more
- 386926 suspected cases --- 1953 more
- 1190384 tests taken --- unknown - not available in this report
- 879 waiting for test results --- 501 less
- 31433 under watch from authorities --- 159 more
- 495 hospitalized --- 15 less
- 72 in ICU --- 5 less

Single digit daily death toll reached double digits for the 1st time in 28 days: as i feared, 1st it was the climb in hospitalizations and ICU numbers and now comes the climb in the daily death toll.

Had to resort to have a couple of pics from our situation report with today's numbers because the Portuguese Health Site STILL hasn't been updated, despite the numbers having been released for over two hours now ...

Completely unrelated to the Portuguese situation, what's with UK's "sudden loss" of nearly 28K cases? I was updating that chart i made to yesterday's numbers and i had to re-do all of UK's data because it was all messed up. Perhaps @Tatty_One or @the54thvoid can shed some light on the situation

Here's how the chart currently looks (click for full picture):



While Brazil still has one of the worst curves, it's actually India that is doubling it's number of cases the fastest. OTOH, due to it's population VS the other "leaders", it's actually fairing much better.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I have no idea, not seen anything in the news, this gives quite a good picture of where the UK is at with England specific stuff too, quite informative, today Cafe's, restaurants, pubs and hairdressers open...…….. waiting for the spikes!

Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers

Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[the54thvoid]

….. waiting for the spikes!

Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers

Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

LIke the hairstyle? I had one in the eighties....

Up here in Scotty land we've still got restrictions even though it's estimated our incidence is 10x lower than England. Don't think our gyms are opening till late August. Which is unfortunate if true 'cos I'm off on holiday to Spain on the 31st Aug. My boss won't be happy (I be gym guy).

 

[trparky]

Ohio has seen a huge spike in COVID-19 cases. Cuyahoga county in North East Ohio is at Level 3 (Level 4 is the highest). Cleveland, which one of the biggest cities in Cuyahoga county, has declared that all citizens are to wear face masks from this point on. Armond Budish, executive of Cuyahoga county, has stated that he's going to be declaring a county-wide mask requirement soon. What the consequences will be of not wearing one is unknown but there's talk about making it a $100 misdemeanor charge with escalating fines if said person continues to defy the requirement.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 43659 confirmed infected --- 483 more
- 28772 recovered --- 348 more
- 1605 fatalities --- 7 more
- 388969 suspected cases --- 2043 more
- 1205593 tests taken --- 15209 more
- 1103 waiting for test results --- 224 more
- 31486 under watch from authorities --- 53 more
- 489 hospitalized --- 6 less
- 73 in ICU --- 1 more

Portuguese Health Site never did get updated yesterday, which is why i had to resort to the daily situation report (which had almost all the information: no tests taken). It was updated today but, as can be seen on the bottom right part of today's pic, yesterday's hospitalization and ICU numbers are missing.

Completely unrelated to the Portuguese situation, what's with UK's "sudden loss" of nearly 28K cases? I was updating that chart i made to yesterday's numbers and i had to re-do all of UK's data because it was all messed up.

This is what i was referring to:

Notice the spikes go almost up to 9K cases in a day and stay around 5K mark consistently and even had a "negative day", with over -500 cases.

Compare that to after the "revision" where it never reaches 5.6K in a day and the overall difference nears 28K (over 313K VS over 285K). It could have been some more recent day's numbers weren't adding up but it turned out it didn't match up since pretty much the beginning and i had to change the data since February, which i found quite odd TBH.

EDIT

Changed from logarithmic base 2 scale to a linear one, for better visibility.

 

[Vayra86]

Ohio has seen a huge spike in COVID-19 cases. Cuyahoga county in North East Ohio is at Level 3 (Level 4 is the highest). Cleveland, which one of the biggest cities in Cuyahoga county, has declared that all citizens are to wear face masks from this point on. Armond Budish, executive of Cuyahoga county, has stated that he's going to be declaring a county-wide mask requirement soon. What the consequences will be of not wearing one is unknown but there's talk about making it a $100 misdemeanor charge with escalating fines if said person continues to defy the requirement.

Masks and no lockdown then? Curious.

Here in NL we're down to a stable trickle of daily cases even with the country mostly reopened for several weeks now - there have been several massed events among those, and mask requirement still exists (non-medical, mind) only in public transport. You don't really see people with one outside of it either, bar some rare exceptions - which I can fully understand by the way; if you have some sort of immune system disorder or weak state, I definitely understand the fear and willingness to mitigate all risk.

The key to stopping the curve is a lockdown of about a month, and then controlled reopening. It will be interesting to see how states fare with just mask enforcement, but I'm not holding my breath tbh... Social distancing alone is much more important to curtail the infection spread once you reopen (or stay open, even). So far the States seem to be all over the place, they're effectively using regional measures for a nationwide problem - that is how Italy failed. The only thing the US has going for it is the immense distance between population hubs.

 

[lexluthermiester]

What the consequences will be of not wearing one is unknown but there's talk about making it a $100 misdemeanor charge with escalating fines if said person continues to defy the requirement.

Criminal penalties can not be enforced with out proper legislation. Constitutionality of such would be very iffy at best.

 

[harm9963]

The State of Texas, $250 fine !

 

[Tatty_Two]

I think it may vary from State to State, for example the Governor of Massachusetts called a state of emergency which gives him significant additional powers, whether enforcement of any form of emergency law is included I do not know, I would assume so in some cases at least and these emergency laws can override existing law ...…….

The Governor Declared A State Of Emergency. What Does That Mean?

 

[HTC]

I think it may vary from State to State, for example the Governor of Massachusetts called a state of emergency which gives him significant additional powers, whether enforcement of any form of emergency law is included I do not know, I would assume so in some cases at least and these emergency laws can override existing law ...…….

The Governor Declared A State Of Emergency. What Does That Mean?

This happened in Portugal: when we went in to "Emergency State", our Government was given powers it doesn't normally have and certain steps were taken because of it. Once we left "Emergency State" in to "Calamity State", it became illegal to continue some of the steps taken to curb our infection problem.

An example: the Government barred people from crossing counties for certain periods, except people specifically authorized to do so, and they were giving non-compliant people fines. This became illegal once we left "Emergency State".

 

[Tatty_Two]

This happened in Portugal: when we went in to "Emergency State", our Government was given powers it doesn't normally have and certain steps were taken because of it. Once we left "Emergency State" in to "Calamity State", it became illegal to continue some of the steps taken to curb our infection problem.

An example: the Government barred people from crossing counties for certain periods, except people specifically authorized to do so, and they were giving non-compliant people fines. This became illegal once we left "Emergency State".

We had/have the same, under our Emergency powers act laws can be written to support the emergency, for example it is mandatory to use face coverings on public transport, however these actions still require a majority vote in our House of Commons, the only time anything does not need to go for a vote is when the powers are invoked because war is declared.

 

[tabascosauz]

Straight into 2-week+ quarantine I go. I went to see two friends today, and despite all the obsessive precautions and cleaning I do and the fact that I really haven't actually gone outside to anywhere other than straight to my parents' houses and back for the past 8 months due to other reasons, a friend's friend's friend tested positive after arriving at a foreign airport (the fact that he went travelling abroad for non-family reasons is already ????????). The person in question was in close contact last week with the other friend (who I do happen to know), who in turn met up with my close friend on Wednesday, and we met up today but we only found out after we had all gone home.

All this is just really frustrating, because I know full well that Canada's numbers don't nearly reflect the reality on the streets, yet Vancouverites love to swear by the "official scientific numbers" given to them. That's not to discredit the scientific and medical communities, which have done an admirable job, but the fact that they are still testing only the severely sick who need to go to the hospital, should tell us all that our official numbers only exist for the sake of having something to refer to.

At this rate, I'm going to spend a whole 12 months entirely cooped up indoors. I hope that for me and my friends (who I haven't seen for pretty much that aforementioned period), this is only going to turn out to be an inconvenience of staying at home.

 

[Vayra86]

This happened in Portugal: when we went in to "Emergency State", our Government was given powers it doesn't normally have and certain steps were taken because of it. Once we left "Emergency State" in to "Calamity State", it became illegal to continue some of the steps taken to curb our infection problem.

An example: the Government barred people from crossing counties for certain periods, except people specifically authorized to do so, and they were giving non-compliant people fines. This became illegal once we left "Emergency State".

Yeah, its slowly becoming clear over here that the 'Covid fines' people got for grouping up with more than two people are not going to hold in court, because quite simply there is no law that supports them anywhere. It did do its job though, people listened.

Recently the gov tried to push the emergency measures into legislation and quickly got stopped by a mass of concerns and senate itself. The whole thing is a little bit in limbo right now. Its interesting to see how this all works in practice. Encouraging, too to see how those checks and balances are working to protect us from sudden, radical changes.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 43897 confirmed infected --- 238 more
- 29017 recovered --- 245 more
- 1614 fatalities --- 9 more
- 390400 suspected cases --- 2043 more
- 1205593 tests taken --- no change - last update June 30, according to tests taken chart
- 1167 waiting for test results --- 64 more
- 31457 under watch from authorities --- 29 less
- 504 hospitalized --- 15 more
- 73 in ICU --- no change

Portuguese Health Site was updated (the missing day). Out of the last 30 days, we had single digit daily death toll in 29 of them, with only 2 days ago having had it with 2 digits.

Something that is giving me cause for concern: apparently the numbers "on the field" for the various counties aren't matching the reported numbers, or so claim some hospital sources: if this is true, i HOPE it's corrected as soon as possible and those responsible are JAILED because of it, and for quite some time too. This is too important a subject to falsify data.

 

[Tatty_Two]

As of today there have been a further 22 deaths and 516 new infections in the UK, although it being the weekend it is often lower due to data capture delays.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Straight into 2-week+ quarantine I go. I went to see two friends today, and despite all the obsessive precautions and cleaning I do and the fact that I really haven't actually gone outside to anywhere other than straight to my parents' houses and back for the past 8 months due to other reasons, a friend's friend's friend tested positive after arriving at a foreign airport (the fact that he went travelling abroad for non-family reasons is already ????????). The person in question was in close contact last week with the other friend (who I do happen to know), who in turn met up with my close friend on Wednesday, and we met up today but we only found out after we had all gone home.

All this is just really frustrating, because I know full well that Canada's numbers don't nearly reflect the reality on the streets, yet Vancouverites love to swear by the "official scientific numbers" given to them. That's not to discredit the scientific and medical communities, which have done an admirable job, but the fact that they are still testing only the severely sick who need to go to the hospital, should tell us all that our official numbers only exist for the sake of having something to refer to.

At this rate, I'm going to spend a whole 12 months entirely cooped up indoors. I hope that for me and my friends (who I haven't seen for pretty much that aforementioned period), this is only going to turn out to be an inconvenience of staying at home.

The good news is that hospitalization numbers should be well reported as long as your hospital system remains functional. Canada probably still has plenty of hospital space and therefore tracking your hospital numbers will be the best measure of your locality.

As I've said throughout this thread: the actual COVID cases number is a terrible measurement. Instead, focus your attention on %Positive, hospitalizations, and #Deaths.

Note: Because Houston, Texas is at over 80% hospital capacity, their hospitalization numbers are no longer valid (Doctors start to turn away COVID19 patients, saving room for the sickest of patients). The argument is similar to your "testing" problem: once you run out of resources, the statistic is basically invalid. But as long as hospitals are below capacity, you should track hospitalization numbers as the #1 reliable statistic for your locality.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 44129 confirmed infected --- 232 more
- 29166 recovered --- 149 more
- 1620 fatalities --- 6 more
- 391651 suspected cases --- 1251 more
- 1205593 tests taken --- no change - last update June 30, according to tests taken chart
- 1182 waiting for test results --- 15 more
- 31485 under watch from authorities --- 28 more
- 513 hospitalized --- 9 more
- 74 in ICU --- 1 more

A local retirement home has had 25 cases discovered between residents and staff: for now, all without symptoms but, due to the resident's average age, that will likely not last for long

 

[harm9963]

New mutated strain of coronavirus spreads faster but may not be more severe, Baylor College of Medicine doctor says

Researchers at Baylor College of Medicine said a new mutated strain of coronavirus may spread more easily but does not appear to be any more severe.

www.click2houston.com

Several Texas cities worry hospitals may run out of beds in two weeks or sooner

Local officials and experts in Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth have expressed concerns in recent days that increasing coronavirus hospitalizations could overwhelm their intensive care capacities, with some saying it could happen in less than two weeks.

www.click2houston.com

 

[Tatty_Two]

A further 352 people tested positive in the UK in the last 24 hours along with a further 16 fatalities.

 

[HTC]

New mutated strain of coronavirus spreads faster but may not be more severe, Baylor College of Medicine doctor says

Researchers at Baylor College of Medicine said a new mutated strain of coronavirus may spread more easily but does not appear to be any more severe.

www.click2houston.com

Several Texas cities worry hospitals may run out of beds in two weeks or sooner

Local officials and experts in Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth have expressed concerns in recent days that increasing coronavirus hospitalizations could overwhelm their intensive care capacities, with some saying it could happen in less than two weeks.

www.click2houston.com

If they haven't yet, they better start preparing extra hospital like environments because i wouldn't be surprised if it took LESS TIME than that (2nd link title).

A further 352 people tested positive in the UK in the last 24 hours along with a further 16 fatalities.

UK's doing as well if not better than Portugal, despite having over 6.5 times our population: UK started poorly but really turned things around.

 

[Tatty_Two]

If they haven't yet, they better start preparing extra hospital like environments because i wouldn't be surprised if it took LESS TIME than that (2nd link title).


UK's doing as well if not better than Portugal, despite having over 6.5 times our population: UK started poorly but really turned things around.

I would hope so but as I said, numbers often dip Saturday - Monday, if they don't spike upwards significantly in tomorrows reporting I will agree with you We are now pretty much out of lockdown, apart from the most vulnerable who have to wait until next month to have any degree of freedom and the odd sector that has not been allowed to return yet such as Swimming pools and Gym's, pretty much everything else is open for business. We are slowly getting better at data management and dissemination in as much as we have the information to see what's happening at the very local levels with potential spike's and close them down, our first was the city of Leicester at the weekend who went back into full lockdown for 2 weeks because the previous week saw 4 times the national average in people per population infections.

For me the jury is still out, as I have said before, generally Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have done better than England, it's easy to say they managed the outbreak more effectively and they did but in context, England has almost 90% of the UK's population and several times the population density. In the early days back in February & March seeing what Italy was going through I thought it cannot be that bad for us, then someone said to me it will be worse because we have the greatest population density in Western Europe, France is probably our closest neighbour in terms of population and they have done fairly well and most likely managed it better than us, however when you look more closely and see that France, with a similar population has almost twice the land mass and therefore around only 55% of our population density it almost led me to despair back in April.

 

[dragontamer5788]

If they haven't yet, they better start preparing extra hospital like environments because i wouldn't be surprised if it took LESS TIME than that (2nd link title).

Obviously, hospital capacity should be increased ASAP. But due to the nature of exponential growth, any increase in capacity will be quickly swamped unless the disease is under control. Back in March, the virus grew at a rate of +30% infections per day. Increasing your hospital capacity by 100% would only buy you 3 more days of exponential growth.

Now, the good news for Texas is that COVID19 is spreading slower than it once did. Perhaps a number of the population is taking precautions, or maybe the summer really is slowing the virus down... or maybe the rural nature of Texas... Whatever the reason, COVID19 is absolutely slower than March.

Total TMC Covid-19 Hospitalizations - Texas Medical Center

Located in the heart of Houston, Texas Medical Center campus is home to leaders in research, medicine, and innovation in healthcare.

www.tmc.edu

3-days starting from 6/23: 790 Hospitalizations
3-days starting from 6/30: 1013 Hospitalizations

That's a 28% increase every week or a daily increase of only 3.6% (1/10th the rate-of-increase compared to New York City in March).

------------

Under these conditions, +100% hospital capacity buys 19 days of 3.6% growth. (log(2.0) / log(1.036) == 19 days), just a rough estimate or so. The curve must be controlled. The problem isn't hospital capacity per se... its exponential growth. Under any exponential growth situation, hospital capacity becomes swamped in a matter of weeks or days... no matter how much hospital capacity you have. The effective measures are those that prevent exponential growth (ie: Lockdowns, masks ordinances, social distancing)

 

[Tatty_Two]

We faced a similar dilemma in late March, early April so we built a couple of 4000 bed Super Hospitals in 2 weeks within existing large buildings using the military for Logistical support, one a conference centre, the other an exhibition centre but both hardly got used in the end but are now starting to take some elective patients to get Cancer treatments going again but I appreciate we have a very different healthcare system.