Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Tatty_Two]

What can clearly be seen is from a number of European countries, when the 2nd wave comes, if the starting point is already higher infection rates than when lockdowns were imposed back in the spring, the finishing point (peak) of the 2nd wave will likely cause more deaths than the 1st wave, possibly significantly more, some of that of course is down to the winter and the higher ICU demand in any case.

Only time will tell who is right, in terms of the US, a lot has been said in the UK media today about the them having around 1000 deaths yesterday, I would argue if that is the case that the UK is at least as bad if not worse, the US has 5 - 6 times the population than the UK and we are getting 150 - 200 deaths each day, albeit that is a very recent upwards move, the only significant factor to mitigate those UK numbers is that we have 7 or 8 times the population density of the US, but the UK has acknowledged that it is well into a 2nd wave.

 

[the54thvoid]

The US never left the first wave. The term is a visible analogy to a sine graph of amplitude (nothing more, IMO, it's a semantic term useful for description but in reality it has zero meaning). The US has been rolling under a consistent tsunami of 1000 deaths/day for a long time. It never got it under control (due to mixed messages and perceptions of the meaning of freedom). But then again, countries with low population density, such as the US, Russia, Canada, etc, should have lower incidence. Anyway, Europe got a grip on it and then re-opened - the effect is now plain to see. Choose your poison: lockdown, look good, recover and BAM! - or have a constant 'death of a thousand paper cuts'. What is abundantly clear is that this virus will continue unabated until we beat it with a vaccine or it mutates into something (hopefully) less contagious.

Frankly, I believe countries that politicise and/or downplay the virus cannot be trusted with stats. For TPU reasons, I shall not list them here.

 

[lexluthermiester]

What is abundantly clear is that this virus will continue unabated until we beat it with a vaccine, people develop resistance to it or it mutates into something (hopefully) less contagious.

You left one out.

The thing stateside is that most people feel it's best to let things run it's course, taking simple precautions for the vulnerable. This is why infection rates have remained somewhat steady.

 

[the54thvoid]

You left one out.

Fingers and toes crossed.

 

[Vayra86]

The US never left the first wave. The term is a visible analogy to a sine graph of amplitude (nothing more, IMO, it's a semantic term useful for description but in reality it has zero meaning). The US has been rolling under a consistent tsunami of 1000 deaths/day for a long time. It never got it under control (due to mixed messages and perceptions of the meaning of freedom). But then again, countries with low population density, such as the US, Russia, Canada, etc, should have lower incidence. Anyway, Europe got a grip on it and then re-opened - the effect is now plain to see. Choose your poison: lockdown, look good, recover and BAM! - or have a constant 'death of a thousand paper cuts'. What is abundantly clear is that this virus will continue unabated until we beat it with a vaccine or it mutates into something (hopefully) less contagious.

Frankly, I believe countries that politicise and/or downplay the virus cannot be trusted with stats. For TPU reasons, I shall not list them here.

I don't think we'll defeat it. We'll add it to a long and growing list of possible ways to die, like cancer, or indeed much more samey: the flu.

The issue now is getting those numbers and the knowledge on a similar level as we have it on flu, so we can feel the same way about it and go about our business in the same way as we do with that 'constant threat' present. All early vaccine results (failures) show the same thing. This thing will mutate and it already has, it can reinfect and it will keep doing its business.

its either that or we'll all become plugged in to the mainframe because going outside might cause death and destruction. I don't think that'll fly. Already you're seeing the resistance in all layers of society - you can't keep people on a leash for too long, and certainly not on this one of constantly changing measures and restrictions. On the other end we suffer the danger of those measures becoming our new reality. Its happening, and slowly but surely I'm seeing common sense slip away from us.

Still today the biggest danger isn't the virus, its what we do with it and that is a direct result of the way we manage our societies.

 

[dragontamer5788]

As has been proven again and again, when COVID19 spikes, it largely follows an exponential curve.

Now true: all diseases follow a logistic curve (aka: the S-curve) in the long run. But the logistic-curve's "left side" looks extremely similar to an exponential one, and we can simplify the math if we focus on the short-term exponential-looking side of the graph. (Besides, no one is really arguing that 20-billion will be infected: everyone understands that the #of humans is the hard cap on the number of infected). Given the size of COVID (ie: 10s of millions infected), we're still very far away from anything looking like an S-curve.

In the meantime: hospitalizations are spiking upwards in 38/50 states in the past week.

------

USA is complicated. I think its best to see the USA as a collection of 50 different locations, instead of aggregating the data. What happens in Nebraska says almost nothing about what's going on in Florida. Though Florida has correlations to far away locations like Maryland / New York, due to the location of railroads and highways: these sorts of facts are probably hard for non-locals to understand. Regardless, its safe to say that something like Nebraska is so far away from Florida that there's nothing those two states really say about each other, with regards to this disease.

The thing stateside is that most people feel it's best to let things run it's course, taking simple precautions for the vulnerable. This is why infection rates have remained somewhat steady.

Depends on the State, depends on the number of infections.

Arizona was proudly proclaiming that they were willing to let things run its course, then hospitals filled up and then the lockdowns happened anyway. For the most part, people are willing to "let things run its course" when the disease is many states away, but if a state was in fact hit (and hit hard)... such as Texas or Arizona, they change their tune almost immediately.

That gives you the worst of both worlds: if you lockdown late, then you have to lockdown for a longer period of time to compensate for the exponential growth. Just a week extra time of growth can double, or triple, the instances of the virus. If you are going to lockdown, you should decide earlier, rather than later.

 

[HTC]

If you are going to lockdown, you should decide earlier, rather than later.

Exactly: the longer the delay, the harder it is to drive the numbers down to a much more manageable level.

 

[harm9963]

Knew this would happen.

 

[dragontamer5788]

More data showing the usefulness of masks.

 

[harm9963]

C

ome on!

 

[Vayra86]

View attachment 173103

More data showing the usefulness of masks.

Well, we're (finally - I'm not, mind... unless its unavoidable which is barely the case over here) using masks and still going straight into a second wave no matter what. Masks are a good way to keep dragging things out and postpone the inevitable, at best. It won't cure or help anyone, on the contrary... because any time you wait with initiating 'the Hammer' (lockdown)... you're trying some weird dance you'll never win, because exponential growth is still happening. Its bringing sand to the beach.

Its just that simple and the coming period will bear that out crystal clear. Mask won't be helping or stopping anything, merely slowing it down and allowing us to look the other way and live in denial. Meanwhile, protests are also starting to happen everywhere in Europe because measures are being dragged out for too long. Long term (mental) damage is being done as we speak.

For EU, the reality is we should've straight up initiated lockdowns in early September, because we already had the data we're seeing now. It was ignored, because 'muh economy'... its a repeat of the affair in March. Now the economy will suffer regardless because soon we can't deny a forced lockdown anyway. Its very human, its very stupid, and history repeats.

Btw, I'm not seeking to reopen the mask debate. I just observe the numbers and conclude the above - the more you zoom out, the clearer it becomes. Worldwide we're still gaining infected %, so the simple reality is, mask isn't helping at all. You can't micromanage this at all, either - you can only do that, if you've successfully hammered it down to a manageable number which it hasn't been since this whole thing began in January. What all the micromanagement does do for us, is slowly drive us insane.

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until today's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 47493 active cases --- 8763 more --- 1251.9 more per day
- 68877 recovered --- 9877 more --- 1411 more per day
- 2316 fatalities --- 135 more --- 19.3 more per day
- 118686 confirmed infected --- 18775 more --- 2682.1 more per day

- 3156991 tests taken --- 159945 more --- 26657.5 more per day but was last updated October 22nd
- 58759 under watch --- 3908 more ---558.3 more per day
- 1574 hospitalized --- 488 more --- 69.7 more per day
- 230 in ICU --- 75 more --- 10.7 more per day

There are two pics dated Oct 24th but the 1st actually has data from the 23rd.

Our new infected cases rose significantly VS last week, yet again, with nearly 42%: nearly 2700 new daily cases per day. Also had a DOUBLING in hospitalized, with just over 102% increase and over 140% increase in average daily ICU, when compared to last week, as well as 34% increase in average daily fatalities.

As much as our political leaders try to deny going back to full lockdown, unless our situation improves AND SOON, i see no other way to escape that, in this 2nd wave. That said, i seriously doubt we can afford it, from an economic point of view.

 

[lexluthermiester]

Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge. Most areas of the US and Canada seem to be holding more or less steady. This is getting interesting..

As much as our political leaders try to deny going back to full lockdown, unless our situation improves and SOON, i see no other way to escape just that, in this 2nd wave.

The problem is that world leaders are looking at history for lessons to be learned and history tells us that precautions will only slow things down a bit. We, as a whole civilization, need to accept the fact that this virus is going to run it's course whether we like it or not. We are powerless to stop it. So instead of focusing efforts on tactics and attempted precautions that will have little to no effect, we need to focus on treatment & recovery both medically and economically. The world economy and society as a whole can not continue the "shutdown madness" that has gripped us. It's time to reopen everything and get back to living instead of cowering in fear of anything and everything that might cross our path.

 

[HTC]

The problem is that world leaders are looking at history for lessons to be learned and history tells us that precautions will only slow things down a bit. We, as a whole civilization, need to accept the fact that this virus is going to run it's course whether we like it or not. We are powerless to stop it. So instead of focusing efforts on tactics and attempted precautions that will have little to no effect, we need to focus on treatment & recovery both medically and economically. The world economy and society as a whole can not continue the "shutdown madness" that has gripped us. It's time to reopen everything and get back to living instead of cowering in fear of anything and everything that might cross our path.

But that's a "good case scenario". The problem is that we need to hope for the best WHILE preparing for the worst.

 

[EarthDog]

Well, we're (finally - I'm not, mind... unless its unavoidable which is barely the case over here) using masks and still going straight into a second wave no matter what. Masks are a good way to keep dragging things out and postpone the inevitable, at best. It won't cure or help anyone, on the contrary... because any time you wait with initiating 'the Hammer' (lockdown)... you're trying some weird dance you'll never win, because exponential growth is still happening. Its bringing sand to the beach.

Its just that simple and the coming period will bear that out crystal clear. Mask won't be helping or stopping anything, merely slowing it down and allowing us to look the other way and live in denial. Meanwhile, protests are also starting to happen everywhere in Europe because measures are being dragged out for too long. Long term (mental) damage is being done as we speak.

For EU, the reality is we should've straight up initiated lockdowns in early September, because we already had the data we're seeing now. It was ignored, because 'muh economy'... its a repeat of the affair in March. Now the economy will suffer regardless because soon we can't deny a forced lockdown anyway. Its very human, its very stupid, and history repeats.

Btw, I'm not seeking to reopen the mask debate. I just observe the numbers and conclude the above - the more you zoom out, the clearer it becomes. Worldwide we're still gaining infected %, so the simple reality is, mask isn't helping at all. You can't micromanage this at all, either - you can only do that, if you've successfully hammered it down to a manageable number which it hasn't been since this whole thing began in January. What all the micromanagement does do for us, is slowly drive us insane.

Lets look at the data when we didnt wear masks and what happened...there is one dataset... the start of the pandemic and where it was trending. The problem now isn't so much community spread as it is the small gatherings where people eschew use. Sturgis... blatant disregard was a part of the surge in recent weeks. Schools went back...all a part of it. You simply cannot disregard the FACT that masks work glossing over other reasons for the surge. It isnt the people in retail and in grocery stores where (in ohio) masks are mandatory. But unmasked situations, indoor eating, for one small example is a part of it.

But yeah... the problem is any health care system not being able to cope with a "f it all" no masks and THAT surge. Its that mentality that takes it from manageable to overwhelmed health systems and unnecessary deaths. Im certainly not condoning lockouts... we at least need to get these 'f all' anti maskers, herd immunity, college/youth to takes things a bit more seriously.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge. Most areas of the US and Canada seem to be holding more or less steady. This is getting interesting..


The problem is that world leaders are looking at history for lessons to be learned and history tells us that precautions will only slow things down a bit. We, as a whole civilization, need to accept the fact that this virus is going to run it's course whether we like it or not. We are powerless to stop it. So instead of focusing efforts on tactics and attempted precautions that will have little to no effect, we need to focus on treatment & recovery both medically and economically. The world economy and society as a whole can not continue the "shutdown madness" that has gripped us. It's time to reopen everything and get back to living instead of cowering in fear of anything and everything that might cross our path.

The courses of action most countries are taking, rightly or wrongly is to try and minimise loss of life along with trying to mitigate the economic effects until a vaccine(s) becomes widely available, I do agree though that by putting all the eggs in one basket could be hugely risky. Looking at your stats, since the middle of this month you have had the highest daily infection rates that you have had for months and according to the CDC almost half a million new infections in the last week.

There was a guy on one of our news channels this morning, he is an ex Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government and apparently has been instrumental globally for contributing significantly to vaccine development over the last 30 years, he said something quite simple, I am not totally sure that I would agree with him but he said that if we had had no lockdowns or restrictions at all but everyone in the country back in early February kept 2 metres distance, wore a decent quality face mask and washed their hands regularly the virus would have been defeated in 10 weeks in so much as the infection rates, whilst still in existence would have been of the proportion that it would have just died out, he went on to say though in order for that to work the people would have to buy in with a greater commitment than they did for lockdown in order to be successful.

 

[blobster21]

Me at work:
-Wear mask at any given time
-Rub hydroalcoolic gel on my hands whenever a dispenser is available
....
then goes to the campus restaurant during lunch time, together with 600 others youngsters, sitting next to each others / in front of each others like there was no pandemy.

What a mess...

 

[the54thvoid]

Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge.

That's because the surge is an effect of having initially suppresed it, something the states never managed to do.

What the graph shows is no significant reduction in cases, rather a very minor drop before a large swell in July. From then, it dipped again and has once again risen higher.
The deaths graph bears out this constant onlsaught of cases.

The current 7 day average for UK is 167 deaths, US is 824 (which equates to the exact same multiple of population: x5). But, we're a small island and you guys have acres of space. The US, with a population density that's 7.5 times lower than the UK, shouldn't be seeing so many deaths.

Most EU countries brought deaths down to very low figures. We're now seeing a slight upick in deaths as we better manage treatment. However, the hospital cases are getting too high, as is the case in some US states, putting immense pressure on resources. This whole 'let it run its course' stance seems to ignore the logistical nightmare of hospitals at capacity and reduction in other treatments causing other co-morbidities.

The virus needs to be controlled for that purpose alone, logistical resource management. As you've said before Lex, we need to see immunity appear and a vaccine, unfortunately, that appears to be the long game and this Winter things appear to be getting far worse than thought.

 

[lexluthermiester]

The problem is that we need to hope for the best WHILE preparing for the worst.

While that is good advice conceptually, in practice it's a bit doggy. The precautions being taken currently are not working as effectively as people/governments want them to. The only way to use isolation to stamp out this virus is to fully and completely shut the world down and force everyone and their dog to stay at home for a year. That can not and will not happen. So the only alternative is to just face facts and accept that this thing is going to run it's course and there is no stopping it.

The courses of action most countries are taking, rightly or wrongly is to try and minimize loss of life

But that's not happening. This thing is continuing on regardless of what we do. Full shutdowns slowed it down, but didn't stop it at all.

along with trying to mitigate the economic effects

Another thing that has, is and will continue to fail. It's already been disastrous.

until a vaccine(s) becomes widely available

And if that never happens? We can not afford to lean on the crutch of hope for a vaccine that may never come.

There was a guy on one of our news channels this morning, he is an ex Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government and apparently has been instrumental globally for contributing significantly to vaccine development over the last 30 years, he said something quite simple, I am not totally sure that I would agree with him but he said that if we had had no lockdowns or restrictions at all but everyone in the country back in early February kept 2 metres distance, wore a decent quality face mask and washed their hands regularly the virus would have been defeated in 10 weeks in so much as the infection rates, whilst still in existence would have been of the proportion that it would have just died out

Like you, I disagree with what he said. The epidemiology of how a virus works strongly works against those notions.

he went on to say though in order for that to work the people would have to buy in with a greater commitment than they did for lockdown in order to be successful.

But again at what cost? Whether we lose lives to the virus or we lose lives to the long term effects of isolation, we're going to lose lives. So the next question becomes, do we want to continue to destroy the world economy in the process?

That's because the surge is an effect of having initially suppressed it, something the states never managed to do.

Fair point.

This graph shows what I was talking about, as an overall trend. Sure there are ups and downs, but things have been effectively steady on since May. What this clearly shows is that we're not stopping it.

 

[HTC]

Me at work:
-Wear mask at any given time
-Rub hydroalcoolic gel on my hands whenever a dispenser is available
....
then goes to the campus restaurant during lunch time, together with 600 others youngsters, sitting next to each others / in front of each others like there was no pandemy.

What a mess...

In order for us to beat this pandemic, we ALL need to "work for it" @ ALL TIMES: "just @ work" isn't enough, as much as just "@ school" also isn't.

Last Monday was my sister's birthday and the main family got together just for the "cake and presents ceremony" (7 people in total, from 4 different households): we wore masks indoors @ all times, except when eating the cake, avoided any hugs and tried to keep some distance between us.

While that is good advice conceptually, in practice it's a bit doggy. The precautions being taken currently are not working as effectively as people/governments want them to. The only way to use isolation to stamp out this virus is to fully and completely shut the world down and force everyone and their dog to stay at home for a year. That can not and will not happen. So the only alternative is to just face facts and accept that this thing is going to run it's course and there is no stopping it.

We may not be able to stop it but i'll be damned if i can't contribute to slow it down as much as possible, until a safe vaccine is found and distributed across the world, however long that takes.

 

[lexluthermiester]

We may not be able to stop it but i'll be damned if i can't contribute to slow it down as much as possible

That is a personal choice no one should be discouraged from making, but it should not be forced.

until a safe vaccine is found and distributed across the world, however long that takes.

As I said above, we can not afford to put all our hopes into a vaccine that might never come. That is a fools errand.

 

[EarthDog]

What we see in the chart is panic... control and lockdown. Then, reopening... then, Memorial day holiday (surge), then 4th of July (big surge)... then 'zomg look at the numbers' (lower trend), then labor day (surge) plus schools start to open and here we are. If we didn't wear masks and social distance it would be exponentially worse and healthcare systems overrun (akin to NYC in the early days) Masks work. Social distancing works. Its science... even Zod believes.

 

[lexluthermiester]

even Zod believes.

Zod?

 

[EarthDog]

General Zod. It was (an attempt at) a joke.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Weird thing though is that stateside we're not seeing the same surge. Most areas of the US and Canada seem to be holding more or less steady. This is getting interesting..

What? The USA has reached an all-time COVID daily-count high just this past week, at +80,000 cases / day.

The Third Wave of COVID-19 in the U.S. Is Officially Worse Than the First Two

As of Oct. 23, there was a weekly average of 21.2 infections per 100,000 residents in the U.S.

time.com

As of Oct. 24, there was a weekly average of 23.0 infections per 100,000 residents, up from 20.5 on July 19 and ticking rapidly upward. The country also set a new single-day record on Oct. 23 with 83,757 new cases.

This "third peak" is already worse than the 1st and 2nd waves, and there's no sign of it slowing down yet.

------

I mean, NYC, Maryland, California, etc. etc. are wearing masks and keeping things low for now. But... as a country, our numbers are pretty terrible. And unlike the 1st wave or 2nd wave, the 3rd wave is hitting widespread parts of the country. Its not just NYC / California (aka: 1st wave), or Texas/Florida/Arizona (2nd wave), but instead... 10+ midwestern states are all getting hit. We won't be able to focus our resources in just one area to make things better (or have isolated shutdowns in just one area) for this 3rd wave.

Even if a few midwestern states got hit... its not like we can move our hospital ships to those land-locked states. I'm not even sure how we get more hospital resources there. Like, how are we supposed to build up hospital infrastructure with the massive spike going on in North Dakota / South Dakota right now?