Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[Devon68]

For the last two weeks we seem to be going up and down in number of infected. Almost every day there are over 7000 new infected depending on the number of tested which ranges from 15000-23000.
And the daily number of dead is over 50.
Restriction wise. Most of the shops and restaurants are open till 6.00 in the afternoon, although you cant sit in a restaurant (only order the food and eat it at home or order takeout. On weekends only grocery stores that sell food are open. Hairdresser, nail salons, and everything that does not have anything to do with food is closed.
I mean it does hurt the economy but if you dont want to have lockdowns and people complaining about being locked inside their own homes you can lock up most of the shops so people dont have where to go anyway.
This might not be the thread to ask this but what is your opinion on the vaccines?
I personally dont want to be first in line to receive it, since even they dont really know what the side effects might be.
Regarding the vaccines I hard a lot of conspiracy theories that made me laugh. Not to belittle some of my friends but some of the theories they keep spreading because they read it online are so out there. I'm in shock as to how can a grown man/woman believe something like that in 2020. I dont want to call them stupid because I dont want to be a smartass, but sometimes I'm just speechless.

 

[dragontamer5788]

For the last two weeks we seem to be going up and down in number of infected.

Where do you live, if you don't mind me asking? You can keep it vague if you don't want to give any specifics.

I personally dont want to be first in line to receive it, since even they dont really know what the side effects might be.

I'd be willing to be first in line even with a "Plan D" vaccine (a hypothetical "dangerous" vaccine). The long-term side effects of COVID19 are likely worse than anything a vaccine can do to you. I mean... COVID19 has a long-term "side effect" of death... but also of months-long lungs damage and breathing problems. We don't really know how long those effects last. Obviously, not everyone gets those chronic conditions... but almost nobody gets sick from a vaccine.

"Plan D" was enacted in case safe-vaccines weren't found. Fortunately, three safe vaccines have been found (where "safe" was tested on over 30,000 people). There's always the risk of a major issue with some strange medication or medical condition, but we're well into 1/30,000 chance or 0.003% chance of that being the case, given the large sample size of phase3 testing.

Obviously, we have to keep track of any strange situations / medical histories / etc. etc. that would cause a serious side effect. But 30,000+ people tested per vaccine (over 40k on Pfizer IIRC), and no issues found yet. That's the standard that means its safe to distribute and "test" on the general public now. There was that one Oxford case that paused the trial: but it turned out to be unrelated to the vaccine.

 

[Devon68]

Where do you live, if you don't mind me asking? You can keep it vague if you don't want to give any specifics.

I dont mind posting. I'm from Serbia. Regarding the words first in line. I would personally skip it since I do have a chronic disease. Will have to consult with my doctor first. But yeah getting covid19 would definitely mean 6ft underground in my case. Stay safe everyone.

 

[dragontamer5788]

1711 was the last peak of hospitalizations in my region. With 1715 hospitalized, we're officially in the "worst its ever been" territory today.

 

[harm9963]

We need this !

 

[Tatty_Two]

We need this !

My Mother in law gets her first jab this Thursday and already has an appointment booked for 7th January for her second. Will be interesting to see who will be first from TPU, I am old so I may be in the running!

 

[Vayra86]

So, tonight, shortly after Germany announced it, we're going into lockdown. Probably prolonged, because we waited about 1-2 months too long with it. Yay!

Oh, what a wonderful Christmas... *polishes crystal ball again*

 

[EarthDog]

So, tonight, shortly after Germany announced it, we're going into lockdown. Probably prolonged, because we waited about 1-2 months too long with it. Yay!

Oh, what a wonderful Christmas... *polishes crystal ball again*

Weren't you already in a lockdown? I have a friend I talk to daily who lives in Cologne... they were in lockdown/still are(?). This is just tightening things down or was it let up and put back into place again?

I know this because my buddy travels to the Netherlands every other week (he has MS and THC helps him - now has a medical card in Germany).

 

[Vayra86]

Weren't you already in a lockdown? I have a friend I talk to daily who lives in Cologne... they were in lockdown/still are(?). This is just tightening things down or was it let up and put back into place again?

I know this because my buddy travels to the Netherlands every other week (he has MS and THC helps him - now has a medical card in Germany).

Nah we weren't in lockdown really, just some restrictions here and there. Schools open and everything.

Only entertainment/bars etc are closed and going to work is 'only if necessary' - which in practice means anyone who feels like it. They gradually built up restrictions over the past month's curve. Total fail policy and a perfect way to get everyone sick and tired of it all.

 

[Tatty_Two]

I wouldn't worry, we had a 4 week lockdown that ended on 2 December, it helped, we then went in to pretty tight restrictions, 12 days after that lockdown followed by tight restrictions we are almost back to the point we were when we went into lockdown.

Rumour has it that London is about to go into our tier 3 measures (they are currently in tier 2), in essence all hospitality will close along with no mixing indoors or out etc.

 

[Vayra86]

I wouldn't worry, we had a 4 week lockdown that ended on 2 December, it helped, we then went in to pretty tight restrictions, 12 days after that lockdown followed by tight restrictions we are almost back to the point we were when we went into lockdown.

Rumour has it that London is about to go into our tier 3 measures (they are currently in tier 2), in essence all hospitality will close along with no mixing indoors or out etc.

That is also good for perspective, thanks. Maybe its just shite everywhere anyway.

 

[Tatty_Two]

That is also good for perspective, thanks. Maybe its just shite everywhere anyway.

I can confirm it is! I really do think we in Europe/US are at the point that apart from a Winter long full lockdown, whatever we do will be at best a temporary reprieve, the biggest factor in us getting to this point is that most of our leaders thought the worst was over in late summer, everyone was saying we know more, have better treatments etc, we still have 500 - 600 a day dying and whilst it was higher at the peak of the first wave, lets see how high it gets this winter once all the non ventilator beds in hospitals are full let alone the ITU's.

#RantOver

 

[HTC]

Here's Portugal's updated numbers this week:



The above pics are, in order, last day updated numbers and every day since then until yesterday's numbers (click for full picture), and the below numbers are current totals, week totals and daily averaged this week:

- 71863 active cases --- 2593 less --- 370.4 fewer per day
- 271322 recovered --- 28267 more --- 4038.1 more per day
- 5559 fatalities --- 596 more --- 85.1 more per day
- 348744 confirmed infected --- 26270 more --- 3752.9 more per day

- 4939014 tests taken --- 217001 more --- 31000.1 more per day but was last updated December 10th and it includes antigen tests as well
- 74012 under watch --- 3408 less --- 486.9 fewer per day
- 3157 hospitalized --- 111 less --- 15.9 less per day
- 513 in ICU --- 1 less --- 0.1 less per day

Was forced to use yesterday's situation report because the "usual report" wasn't published, @ least until before i went to work today.

New cases have dropped by slightly over 400 per day VS last week, hospitalized decreased roughly 3%, and ICU was virtually unchanged. Unfortunately the fatalities increased more VS last week, this time more substantially: we had our highest ever daily death toll yesterday, with 98 deaths

The measures we have in place aren't bringing the numbers down fast enough thus forcing the prolonging of the measures, with the economic consequences they bring

 

[Tatty_Two]

It's official, London going into tier 3 this week, hospitality closed AND we have a mutation of the virus in the London area, 1000 positive cases of it in the last week so the original virus is still around but it is thought that the new strain is more infectious but no more (maybe even slightly less) harmful, apparently the first evidence of this "mutation" showed around 3 weeks ago albeit in very small numbers initially.

Apparently the 3 vaccine's we know about in detail remain as effective against either variation so I can only guess they have been given samples of the mutation to study in order to come to that conclusion.

I came across this basic vaccine comparison whilst looking at our daily numbers...………….

 

[dragontamer5788]

I wouldn't worry, we had a 4 week lockdown that ended on 2 December, it helped, we then went in to pretty tight restrictions, 12 days after that lockdown followed by tight restrictions we are almost back to the point we were when we went into lockdown.

Rumour has it that London is about to go into our tier 3 measures (they are currently in tier 2), in essence all hospitality will close along with no mixing indoors or out etc.

County-level is beginning to look like that here in Maryland: its a case-by-case basis for what gets shutdown. Without a national strategy to fund the hurt businesses (stimulus checks and/or temporary eviction bans), the local leaders are hesitant to call for a shutdown. But our cases got bad enough that its looking like we're going to be closing dine-in options at least, maybe more.

Okay, I recognize that Christmas is just around the corner and will probably result in another major spike upwards. But for now, I think the hospitalization numbers are inflected downward (2nd derivative negative). We had +300 hospitalizations/week in late November, but we're now only getting +150 hospitalizations/week (now that some patients are leaving the hospital, we're not growing quite as quickly as before). We're still at over +2000 cases /day, and deaths are anywhere from 20-deaths/day to 50-deaths/day.

So at best, we're doing "better than some other states". But I wouldn't say we're doing "good", just "not as bad" as we were a week or two ago.

It's official, London going into tier 3 this week, hospitality closed AND we have a mutation of the virus in the London area, 1000 positive cases of it in the last week so the original virus is still around but it is thought that the new strain is more infectious but no more (maybe even slightly less) harmful, apparently the first evidence of this "mutation" showed around 3 weeks ago albeit in very small numbers initially.

I wouldn't be too worried about most variations. There's at least 6 variants in the USA last time I checked... but all of them seem to have the same spike-protein that these vaccines have targeted. Most mutations seem unlikely to change the spike protein (or something: I'm not a biologist, so I don't really understand it). So its unlikely for most mutations to become "immune to the vaccine" so to speak.

If anything, most mutations are positive news for tracking the disease. The London-variant will be able to be tracked, and allow us to better understand how the disease spreads. We can see if London's measures are effective for example, which cities (or countries) the London variant manages to get to, etc. etc. Its actually a good thing and very useful at this stage of the game (as long as it remains under the same vaccine).

IIRC, a lot of our understanding of how this disease spread in the USA came from a Boston mutation: https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...8/25/boston-coronavirus-superspreading-event/

With luck, yall across the pond can get a grasp on what super-spreader event caused the London-variant to grow. And then you can use that information to better inform future lockdown procedures.

 

[Tatty_Two]

County-level is beginning to look like that here in Maryland: its a case-by-case basis for what gets shutdown. Without a national strategy to fund the hurt businesses (stimulus checks and/or temporary eviction bans), the local leaders are hesitant to call for a shutdown. But our cases got bad enough that its looking like we're going to be closing dine-in options at least, maybe more.

View attachment 179599

Okay, I recognize that Christmas is just around the corner and will probably result in another major spike upwards. But for now, I think the hospitalization numbers are inflected downward (2nd derivative negative). We had +300 hospitalizations/week in late November, but we're now only getting +150 hospitalizations/week (now that some patients are leaving the hospital, we're not growing quite as quickly as before). We're still at over +2000 cases /day, and deaths are anywhere from 20-deaths/day to 50-deaths/day.

So at best, we're doing "better than some other states". But I wouldn't say we're doing "good", just "not as bad" as we were a week or two ago.



I wouldn't be too worried about most variations. There's at least 6 variants in the USA last time I checked... but all of them seem to have the same spike-protein that these vaccines have targeted. Most mutations seem unlikely to change the spike protein (or something: I'm not a biologist, so I don't really understand it). So its unlikely for most mutations to become "immune to the vaccine" so to speak.

If anything, most mutations are positive news for tracking the disease. The London-variant will be able to be tracked, and allow us to better understand how the disease spreads. We can see if London's measures are effective for example, which cities (or countries) the London variant manages to get to, etc. etc. Its actually a good thing and very useful at this stage of the game (as long as it remains under the same vaccine).

IIRC, a lot of our understanding of how this disease spread in the USA came from a Boston mutation: https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...8/25/boston-coronavirus-superspreading-event/

With luck, yall across the pond can get a grasp on what super-spreader event caused the London-variant to grow. And then you can use that information to better inform future lockdown procedures.

I can tell you now, it's called the London Underground, even with restrictions and plenty working from home, the capital still has near to 1 million travelling to work in the morning packed into small carriages as well as 400,000 school children, plus of course being the capital there are lots travelling in and out for work related business, so that new variation is probably on it's way to me if not already (I am 125 miles away), happy days. At least in tier 3 the business traffic will reduce a bit and schools are now going to be off for 2 - 3 weeks.

 

[R-T-B]

since even they dont really know what the side effects might be.

There have been large scale clinical trials. They know the side effects by now (similar to flu shot, last I checked. Mild fever at worst).

Either way, receiving it first won't be an option unless you are essential healthcare or similar most likely. So you'll have plenty of data before you can get it.

 

[dragontamer5788]

There have been large scale clinical trials. They know the side effects by now (similar to flu shot, last I checked. Mild fever at worst).

Either way, receiving it first won't be an option unless you are essential healthcare or similar most likely. So you'll have plenty of data before you can get it.

To be frank: "phase 4" as it is sometimes called, is still fraught with difficulties. A 30,000+ person tests are the best method we got before large-scale distribution of a drug. But 100-million is more people by an order of magnitude. A degree of worry and caution should be kept in any trial as a drug or vaccine moves forward to mass consumption.

Simple things, like side-effects, are known and well studied in the 30,000 person test. But the issue is "rare interactions", the stuff of the literal 1-in-a-million chances. (Ex: someone with a 3rd kidney mutation + got into a car accident recently and is taking some obscure painkiller + then gets a vaccine). A rare genetic mutation + relatively rare medication + new vaccine could cause issues (probably not, but a combination like that would almost certainly not be tested in Phase 3).

Phase 3 is "a normal person who takes the vaccine", and what seems to happen to normal people.

------

Anyone who is in a rare or rare-ish situation should talk to their doctor about risks if they have any amount of doubt. I'm not talking about common people like me who have high-blood pressure, or diabetes, or obesity. Those are common conditions and are almost certainly tested for. But if you've got a rare disease, or are recovering from some experimental cancer treatment or something... yeah... you might want to hold off on the vaccine. And that's perfectly acceptable to feel cautious about that.

 

[Drone69]

I`m eligible for the vaccine(End stage emphysema) and don`t really have to worry about any long term side effects. Only problem my Dr is not giving the vaccine to their patients. I`ll have to travel to another town to get it.

 

[Ahhzz]

I`m eligible for the vaccine(End stage emphysema) and don`t really have to worry about any long term side effects. Only problem my Dr is not giving the vaccine to their patients. I`ll have to travel to another town to get it.

seriously?? .... Is there a reason he's not giving the vaccine?

 

[Drone69]

They didn`t say why. I was reading a story in the news yesterday about a number of Drs in England that wouldn`t be giving it out.

I can`t find the story to put a link to it. But when I called my Dr to make an appointment this morning I asked about the vaccine and was told they aren`t doing it at that surgery.

 

[dragontamer5788]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12/16/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/#link-KE2GP74B6JH75C5YQMJJVB4FEQ

A health-care worker in Alaska had a serious allergic reaction and was hospitalized after getting the new coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, and is in stable condition, according to two people familiar with the situation.

...

British authorities have advised people with a history of anaphylaxis — a serious and potentially fatal allergic reaction that can arrive quickly but also be rapidly reversed through medication — to consult with a doctor before receiving the vaccine.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has also issued guidance about potential anaphylactic reactions. People with a history of such severe reactions “may still receive vaccination, but they should be counseled about the unknown risks of developing a severe allergic reaction and balance these risks against the benefits of vaccination,” the CDC guidance states.

Yup yup. These are the things that come out of "Phase 4" that I was talking about.

I'm still getting the vaccine when its available.(I've taken dozens of vaccines over the years and a yearly flu shot, never had an allergic reaction before. But there's too many edge-cases in the world, that even a 30,000+ person test won't be able to predict. Generally speaking, I always spend ~15 minutes walking around the hospital area after getting a flu shot just in case a reaction comes up (those anaphylaxis things kick in within minutes). So as long as you aren't like, driving in a car when it hits you (and you're close to a hospital ANYWAY if you're getting a vaccine), you'll be fine.

So that'd be my recommendation: take the vaccine, spend 15 minutes waiting for an allergic reaction (and stay close to medical care and/or in a public area with lots of people). After ~15 minutes, you're clear of that potential issue. (If you don't react within 15 minutes, you're probably not allergic to the vaccine that was injected to your veins)

EDIT: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-12/COVID-03-Mbaeyi.pdf

Apparently, the CDC recommendation is 30-minutes for anaphylaxis, not 15-minutes. Good to know...

Vaccine providers should observe patients after vaccination to monitor for the occurrence of immediate adverse reactions:
• Persons with a history of anaphylaxis: 30 minutes
• All other persons: 15 mins

 

[HTC]

I'm still getting the vaccine. (I've taken dozens of vaccines over the years and a yearly flu shot, never had an allergic reaction before). But there's too many edge-cases in the world, that even a 30,000+ person test won't be able to predict. Generally speaking, I always spend ~15 minutes walking around the hospital area after getting a flu shot just in case a reaction comes up (those anaphylaxis things kick in within minutes). So as long as you aren't like, driving in a car when it hits you (and you're close to a hospital ANYWAY if you're getting a vaccine), you'll be fine.

So that'd be my recommendation: take the vaccine, spend 15 minutes waiting for an allergic reaction (and stay close to medical care and/or in a public area with lots of people). After ~15 minutes, you're clear of that potential issue. (If you don't react within 15 minutes, you're probably not allergic to the vaccine that was injected to your veins)

EDIT: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-12/COVID-03-Mbaeyi.pdf

Apparently, the CDC recommendation is 30-minutes for anaphylaxis, not 15-minutes. Good to know...

Not always.

When i was very young, i got a penicillin test shot and, after a VERY long wait, i got the 1st penicillin dose. All seemed well but, when it was time for the 2nd dose, the arm i took the 1st dose in was nearly twice as thick as the other arm, as i was having an allergic reaction.

Afterwards, the hospital ended up changing it's rules regarding the waiting period after penicillin test shots because of me, or so my mother tells me since i was too young to remember.

 

[Tatty_Two]

They didn`t say why. I was reading a story in the news yesterday about a number of Drs in England that wouldn`t be giving it out.

I can`t find the story to put a link to it. But when I called my Dr to make an appointment this morning I asked about the vaccine and was told they aren`t doing it at that surgery.

There are actually very few Doctor's Surgeries that have the vaccine currently, in my County (Worcestershire) there are only 5 surgeries that have it, lucky for us though the nearest one that has is only 3 miles away and my Mother in law (88 years old) has hers tomorrow, by the 2nd week of January there will be a lot more that have it but because of the storage limitations along with the throughput of patients all surgeries will never have the Pfizer vaccine, if and when we get the other 2 vaccine's once approved (hopefully) then every surgery and pharmacy should get them as shelf life is much less of a problem.

 

[Space Lynx]

There are actually very few Doctor's Surgeries that have the vaccine currently, in my County (Worcestershire) there are only 5 surgeries that have it, lucky for us though the nearest one that has is only 3 miles away and my Mother in law (88 years old) has hers tomorrow, by the 2nd week of January there will be a lot more that have it but because of the storage limitations along with the throughput of patients all surgeries will never have the Pfizer vaccine, if and when we get the other 2 vaccine's once approved (hopefully) then every surgery and pharmacy should get them as shelf life is much less of a problem.

Does anyone know yet if the two shot vaccine spaced a month a part is one and done vaccine like the shots we get when we are babies? Or will it be needed every 6-12 months to maintain antibodies? Or do we just not know yet?