Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[dragontamer5788]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/coronavirus-maryland-virginia-dc/2020/07/22/1055de24-cc25-11ea-bc6a-6841b28d9093_story.html

In Baltimore, Mayor Bernard C. “Jack” Young (D) signed an executive order suspending indoor dining at bars and restaurants beginning at 5 p.m. Friday. The city’s health commissioner is also mandating that residents wear masks when they are outdoors and when social distancing of six feet is not possible.

Baltimore is the first jurisdiction in Maryland to restrict activities that were permitted under its reopening plan. The order reverts activity back to outdoor dining and carryout services only.

Maryland's biggest city, Baltimore, has suspended indoor dining. Baltimore has one of the higher %Positive rates according to the chart from earlier.

Hospitalizations continue to track upwards now.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49150 confirmed infected --- 252 more
- 33999 recovered --- 230 more
- 1702 fatalities --- 5 more
- 425124 suspected cases --- 2084 more
- 1480458 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 20th
- 1606 waiting for test results --- 10 less
- 35040 under watch from authorities --- 37 less
- 439 hospitalized --- no change
- 59 in ICU --- 3 less

 

[W1zzard]

Post auto-merge has been disabled for this thread

 

[lexluthermiester]

Post auto-merge has been disabled for this thread

Out of curiosity, was it glitching?

 

[W1zzard]

Out of curiosity, was it glitching?

nope, just unexpected mechanics

Technical Issues - TPU Main Site & Forum (2020)

Attachment thumbnails don't work in comments to news posts. Photos appear in full size no matter what.

www.techpowerup.com

 

[dragontamer5788]

Hmm, with hospitalizations tracking up in Maryland despite a positivity rate of 4.5% (more or less constant), clearly relying upon positivity numbers was a mistake in my logic earlier in this thread.

Another +23 hospitalizations in a day. I guess tracking hospitalizations alone is the main "gold standard" metric. But positivity rate and/or confirmed cases are both much quicker than hospitalization. So I still seek a "quicker" statistic that I can rely upon to predict trends.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49379 confirmed infected --- 229 more
- 34369 recovered --- 370 more
- 1705 fatalities --- 3 more
- 427203 suspected cases --- 2079 more
- 1496925 tests taken --- 16467 more - last updated July 21th
- 1545 waiting for test results --- 61 less
- 34966 under watch from authorities --- 74 less
- 431 hospitalized --- 8 less
- 59 in ICU --- no change

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 15 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was July 8th.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49692 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 34687 recovered --- 318 more
- 1712 fatalities --- 7 more
- 429254 suspected cases --- 2051 more
- 1512972 tests taken --- 16047 more - last updated July 22th
- 1544 waiting for test results --- 1 less
- 34870 under watch from authorities --- 96 less
- 420 hospitalized --- 11 less
- 52 in ICU --- 7 less

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 16 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

 

[Caring1]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:

- 49692 confirmed infected --- 313 more
- 34687 recovered --- 318 more
- 1712 fatalities --- 7 more
- 429254 suspected cases --- 2051 more
- 1512972 tests taken --- 16047 more - last updated July 22th
- 1544 waiting for test results --- 1 less
- 34870 under watch from authorities --- 96 less
- 420 hospitalized --- 11 less
- 52 in ICU --- 7 less

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 16 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

It doesn't look good once they reach ICU. 7 less but 7 more deaths.

 

[HTC]

It doesn't look good once they reach ICU. 7 less but 7 more deaths.

Coincidence: there were many times where, despite X deaths, ICU number increased or had no change.

 

[Tatty_Two]

There are at least a number of medications available now that reduce the likelihood of a bad ending, some of which are quite cheap, just not sure if countries still with high fatality rates are using them.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 49955 confirmed infected --- 263 more
- 35010 recovered --- 323 more
- 1716 fatalities --- 4 more
- 431111 suspected cases --- 1857 more
- 1528600 tests taken --- 15628 more - last updated July 23th
- 1564 waiting for test results --- 20 more
- 34980 under watch from authorities --- 110 more
- 410 hospitalized --- 10 less
- 50 in ICU --- 2 less

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 17 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th.

As can be seen on the pic, they mistakenly swapped hospitalized and ICU, not only in number but also the chart.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50164 confirmed infected --- 209 more
- 35217 recovered --- 207 more
- 1717 fatalities --- 1 more
- 432390 suspected cases --- 1279 more
- 1528600 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 23th
- 1429 waiting for test results --- 135 less
- 35157 under watch from authorities --- 177 more
- 403 hospitalized --- 7 less
- 48 in ICU --- 2 less

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 18 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th. We've also crossed 50K infected

 

[dragontamer5788]

A lot more specifics are going on the Governor's twitter page.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1287046348026580992

58.3% of today’s new cases are Marylanders under the age of 40. The positivity rate among Marylanders under 35 is now 92.8% higher than the positivity rate for Marylanders age 35 and older. We are continuing to monitor the increase in hospitalizations statewide.

Therefore, the surge in new cases is probably due to the 35-and-under crowd here in Maryland.

 

[Tatty_Two]

Maybe the Governor needs to do a full lockdown for 2 weeks unless he has the courage to target that age group only, it's not surprising that under 35's are likely to have more "social" needs when freedom's are restored however unless it's restrained the trend is likely to continue.

 

[dragontamer5788]

Maybe the Governor needs to do a full lockdown for 2 weeks unless he has the courage to target that age group only, it's not surprising that under 35's are likely to have more "social" needs when freedom's are restored however unless it's restrained the trend is likely to continue.

There's talk of at least closing down eat-in restaurants / bars. Which is kind of insane that we're keeping those open right now as cases rise.

 

[HTC]

Portugal's numbers have been updated:



On the left, yesterday's numbers and on the right, today's numbers (click for full picture):

- 50299 confirmed infected --- 135 more
- 35375 recovered --- 158 more
- 1719 fatalities --- 2 more
- 433461 suspected cases --- 1071 more
- 1528600 tests taken --- no change - last updated July 23th
- 1397 waiting for test results --- 32 less
- 35120 under watch from authorities --- 37 less
- 414 hospitalized --- 11 more
- 45 in ICU --- 3 less

We've been having single digit daily death toll for the last 19 consecutive days: last time we reached double digits was on July 8th. Though with some "hiccups", both hospitalized and ICU continue their dropping trend.

Those 19 parishes that had stricter restrictions VS the rest of the country are having improvements in their numbers: though the majority of new cases is STILL in those parishes, continuing this improvement will see them having the stricter restrictions lifted, thus "enjoying" what the rest of the country currently has.

That said, we can't get complacent just because our numbers are looking better because we may find ourselves with a situation where we're forced to go back and impose heavier restrictions again, and NOBODY wants that. What's currently happening in Spain is a big enough example of that.

 

[EarthDog]

There's talk of at least closing down eat-in restaurants / bars. Which is kind of insane that we're keeping those open right now as cases rise.

If only there was a coordinated National response.

Ohio has been rising as well, but at least saturday we didn't break a record. Here is to hoping that trend continues.

 

[dragontamer5788]

If only there was a coordinated National response.

Indeed. I may sound like a broken record over this... but I95 and a major Railroad connects Maryland and Florida (and all states in between) together. What happens in Florida will inevitably spread to here. I guess Ohio has the Ohio Turnpike, which implicitly connects Chicago / Washington DC and Chicago / New York together. Any COVID uptick that happens here (or in Chicago...) will probably spread to your place too.

Lots of roads and connections between our cities. What happens in one spot in America will spread to others.

 

[Vayra86]

Hmm, with hospitalizations tracking up in Maryland despite a positivity rate of 4.5% (more or less constant), clearly relying upon positivity numbers was a mistake in my logic earlier in this thread.

View attachment 163189

Another +23 hospitalizations in a day. I guess tracking hospitalizations alone is the main "gold standard" metric. But positivity rate and/or confirmed cases are both much quicker than hospitalization. So I still seek a "quicker" statistic that I can rely upon to predict trends.

You won't find it, countless virologists and epidemiologists have gone before you.

The whole point of this pandemic has been, from the beginning until today and even going forward, that you will always be too late, or you will be too strict too early and lose motivation among the populace too early as well.

You can only hit this responsively, really, I think many countries are slowly starting to figure that out. Maybe we already know it, but really don't want to.

We Humans simply cannot fathom the basic principle of exponential growth. It doesn't work in our brain. You can find a similar problem with our climate discussion. It will go very wrong before we start taking it seriously, and really, it has already gone quite wrong as it is, look at us. Its practically January 2020 for climate and we still act like it only happens in China Overwhelming evidence says we won't catch either ghost before things turn to shit massively. India is a good example right now, of that... The society simply has no mechanisms to truly provide a solution to push the curve down, and out. Other countries have all the tools, but refuse to use them, or use them too late, or too little.

Right now in Netherlands I think we're slowly creeping towards a second wave of some sort, and you can see the public push for more measures to keep pretending all is well. You know what I mean. I'm going to predict that by next Tuesday we will have a limited mask requirement in public spaces beyond public traffic. All in an effort to keep an economy going that is rotten to the core to begin with... and counterpart to our other major problems. We just don't want to know the harsh reality of it all, that Is what I'm seeing.

 

[dragontamer5788]

We Humans simply cannot fathom the basic principle of exponential growth. It doesn't work in our brain.

Nah. Anyone who plays with diodes or BJT transistors understands I = C * exp(V). Throw down an op-amp, and you can start playing with logarithms (reverse exponents), or multiplication with this.

Exponential growth is really easy. Its estimated as "all efforts don't matter" vs "all efforts matter". If everything you deploy works, then it it mattered. If everything you deploy didn't work, then nothing mattered. Its a hard cutoff function.

A diode will "not conduct" at 0.5V (it actually does conduct, but EEs assume it doesn't), but typically lets through a (near infinite) current at 1V or so (at least, until the diode burns itself out). Similarly, this virus will grow exponentially if our efforts keep R > 1.0. But as soon as our efforts drop the R value < 1.0, then the virus retreats.

Its actually really simple. Get R below 1.0, and we're gold. But if R > 1.0, we die. Hard-cutoff is how electrical engineers understand exponential growth, and its good enough understanding to create the computers you and I are using to communicate with. So somebody out there (electrical engineers) got this exponential growth fully understood man .

Or to put it into EE terms: the exponential growth of a diode is commonly estimated as "Diode is off below 0.7V" and "Diode is on above 0.7V" (+/- a bit due to internal variance). Similarly, growth of the virus is above R > 1.0, while decline of the virus is R < 1.0. That's it.

 

[Vayra86]

Nah. Anyone who plays with diodes or BJT transistors understands I = C * exp(V). Throw down an op-amp, and you can start playing with logarithms (reverse exponents), or multiplication with this.

Exponential growth is really easy. Its estimated as "all efforts don't matter" vs "all efforts matter". If everything you deploy works, then it it mattered. If everything you deploy didn't work, then nothing mattered. Its a hard cutoff function.

A diode will "not conduct" at 0.5V (it actually does conduct, but EEs assume it doesn't), but typically lets through a (near infinite) current at 1V or so (at least, until the diode burns itself out). Similarly, this virus will grow exponentially if our efforts keep R > 1.0. But as soon as our efforts drop the R value < 1.0, then the virus retreats.

Its actually really simple. Get R below 1.0, and we're gold. But if R > 1.0, we die. Hard-cutoff is how electrical engineers understand exponential growth, and its good enough understanding to create the computers you and I are using to communicate with. So somebody out there (electrical engineers) got this exponential growth fully understood man .

Or to put it into EE terms: the exponential growth of a diode is commonly estimated as "Diode is off below 0.7V" and "Diode is on above 0.7V" (+/- a bit due to internal variance). Similarly, growth of the virus is above R > 1.0, while decline of the virus is R < 1.0. That's it.

And yet in multiple countries R numbers are royally above 1, even in the Netherlands, but we still refuse to switch quickly to lockdown again. Gotta keep those rats runnin'

 

[dragontamer5788]

And yet in multiple countries R numbers are royally above 1, even in the Netherlands, but we still refuse to switch quickly to lockdown again. Gotta keep those rats runnin'

That's true. I think part of the reason however, is because people over-complicate the explanation of this disease. I've shared with you my "hard cutoff explanation". Hopefully more people can utilize this method to explain COVID19 to others.

We don't have to be "technically correct", even in the EE-terms, to do useful things. A diode is NOT a hard-cutoff function. We just "estimate" the hard-cutoff function because its easier to understand than exponential growth. By describing the problem as hard-cutoff (everything either matters, or everything doesn't matter), many more people can come to understand what is going on here. These simpler models can be useful, even if they're less accurate than the reality.

 

[harm9963]

Undocumented wont get check out and keep on working sick, underbelly uncheck uncounted and spreading .

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[dragontamer5788]

Undocumented wont get check out and keep on working sick, underbelly uncheck uncounted and spreading .

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

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Well, if they go to the hospital, there is a chance that ICE will pick them up and deport them. Better to stay sick at home than be separated from your family...