NVIDIA is Rushing GeForce RTX 4090 Orders to China Before Export Restrictions

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

It's just that ASML doesn't supply them these machines.

And is not the only manufacturer involved.

They have supplier's, they don't make all they're own optics for example.
That optics company took time to develop it's IP and guards it.

They don't soley own all the IP in their fab machine's.

And even the EUV light source took years and millions of investment to develop.

Yes China has it's ways to "innovate" but they are bound by physics.

 

[Vayra86]

That should not be a problem for China. They will just do what they do best. Making copies of rtx 4090 as they do with so much else.

Oh yeah sure

As for lithography

China Makes Huge Chip Breakthrough - 7 Nanometers Without EUV Lithography Machines | NextBigFuture.com

Huawei's Kirin 9000S system-on-chip powers Huawei's new Mate 60 Pro smartphone reportedly is using 2nd generation 7nm-class fabrication process and stacking

www.nextbigfuture.com

They can make 7nm at 30-50% inflated cost. Good luck with that. What China does here is where TSMC never wanted to go because economically it just doesn't work out. The business case is a net loss, even with major chip price increases.

Meanwhile,

China's property slump worsens, clouding recovery prospects

A slump in China's property sector worsened in August, with deepening falls in new home prices, property investment and sales, despite a recent flurry of support measures, adding pressure to the world's second-largest economy.

www.reuters.com

And that crisis has a lasting and direct effect on the workforce, especially younger workforce that is now far less likely to move out from parents' home into the cities where the tech development happens. Covid-after effects are on top of that. China is likely heading for a major crash, which they'll be hiding for the next decade while it plays out.

yep, copy and paste. I am guessing they already are back engineering ASML machines from the Netherlands faster than anyone expected too.

Pretty unlikely, the key parts in ASML EUV machines are lenses and the tolerances for producing those correctly are near zero. There just aren't many companies that can physically even make them, the world over, and they're definitely not situated in China. Even Karl-Zeiss isn't succeeding with every batch/delivery of glass at ASML - sporadically, the quality is below par and it all gets returned. This is what the cutting edge looks like. EUV is a world first for good reasons.

Even the block on DUV isn't without an effect. ASML's DUV machines are also several steps ahead of the competition. And none of these machines will keep working indefinitely without maintenance. For maintenance you need parts. Very specific parts.

 

[Kapone33]

There is so much in the narrative surrounding China that it is good to have context. This is an interesting thread on how entrenched we are in the business World. The fact that they have sent to all of their AIB partners as many 4090 chips as they can make is a real slap in the face for Gamers that were told that AI was going to be the focus. I know we are not supposed to be political but it is hard to pretend that technology is not playing a huge part in every aspect of life, in some ways China is like Japan in November 1941. No one can deny that if (when) the conflict Grows Taiwan would be an Ace in the Deck of whoever had control of the Fabs and factories. There is a reason that everyone is gearing up. Did you see that the US has added Women to the Draft?

 

[mb194dc]

Chinese companies will easily be able to buy the 4090 in other markets and then just import them without Nvidia being involved in it.

Unless export restrictions apply to every country with a border with China they'll fail totally.

Like the Russia sanctions, Russian trade collapsed with most countries but surged with China and some other countries they share a border with.

 

[R-T-B]

Things only get worse for your argument the more you go back in history.

Honestly, does it though? The part of Chinese history I remember reading is england winning a war against them (waged solely because england was consuming too much opium which they blamed on China) and royally screwing them in the peace terms.

That being said, I agree about today with regards to modern China, and no my school system did not hide me from our own pretty horrible history, some of which still costs us to this day.

 

[Terry79]

USA is creating their own enemies. China isn't interested in being enemy to anyone.

LOL

 

[JustBenching]

So USA is fighting China by banning intel and nvidia products, forcing them to use amd. That's freaking genius.

 

[PapaTaipei]

literally every country is based on war and conquest, including your darling China.
MSM and schools do nothing else than demonize our own countries for what everyone else has done.
China is currently, yes RIGHT NOW, enslaving and genociding parts of their population while building a colonial empire in Africa.
Things only get worse for your argument the more you go back in history.

Building a colonial empire in Africa? Says a white man. Let's see how it goes.

 

[小黑子]

I am Chinese and I can tell you that minors in China are verified with adult ID cards, so the government ban is useless