No way.
Pricing sucks and TSMC's another record profit quarter might hint at to why.
But
AMD did innovate this gen.
FSR4 beats expectations. Nobody thought it would beat DLSS 3.
And so is 9070XTs RT performance. 15% behind 5070Ti at RT, most of it recoverable via OC? Wow.
Impressive perf/watt of 9070.
AMD basically got to near parity on "teh fichers".
NV's lineup is lazy. No RT leap.
The only outstanding thing about 5000 lineup is the "5070=4090" lie.
From der8auer the card is good at undervolting but a mess at overclocking , and if you're OCing on card you can also OC the other so that point is mute.
It's not TSMC, we know the price of wafers 16k$ for D:300mm. Navi 48 is around 13mmx27,5mm, a bit less even, looking at TSMC defect rates if you get every single defect to trash a die you would get a 2/3 wield. At minimum they get 160 dies total that makes 150$ a die in an unrealistically bad situation.
And I speculate that this is even a bigger overestimation. The die is more than twice as long as wide that makes no sense if you want to maximise wafer area, unless Navi 44 is literally a Navi 48 die, this might be pure speculation on my part but if true this should give them a dozen plus 44 dies and in the situation above 60 plus.
Gddr6 memory is known 2,5$ GB is on the higher end of what's it selling for normally it's lower, so 40$ at most for the vram.
Now the hard part:
PCB, don't have the faintest idea but I would think that it's reasonable to assume it costs less than a cheaper mobo to make.
Cooling, I remember the he arctic acclero extreme 4, it use to be the best aircooler for GPUs on the market, and was rated for 300w, 6 years ago I bought one for a friend to repair is 1080ti, costed me 55€, now it's an end of line product and the MSRP at arctic is 63€.
Now some math:
I will always account for vat by converting 1 $ to 1,2 € which is overpring compared to a 23% vat.
After this I'll round values up.
Die: 240€. let's give AMD a 33% profit which considering their market position and the abysmal productivity capabilities of the cards is a lot higher than the they should be expecting especially when they claim their plan is to make affordable cards to get market share. Considering that the cos of the die is inflated I'll no add any cost for packaging.
Vram: 60€. 20% profit just in case.
The rest is based on retail prices so aconts for distribution and already has profits for retailers.
PCB: 50€. Just went to the site I use to compare prices, and the cheapest ones AM 4 mobos are sub 50€.
Cooling: 100€. The arctic cooler is bare bones and in end of life, so in case tha plastic they useis sprinkled with gold and the 4w difference in sepec accounts for 1kg of aluminium let's add 60% to the price and round up.
Total: 450€
But the die and vram don't have a part to account for retailers and distribution profits, considering that the retailers that I deal withe have an average profit of 5% ... Let's make it 50% to a grand total of 600€.
MSRP cards were 700€, so comparing to an arguably overpriced estimation it's 100€ overpriced, and I bet that a good part of this difference is that AMD is taking profit margins very close to Nvidia even in their situation.
Plus there are rumours that the next batch in Europe is going to be more expensive even if at the time the euro had gained significantly over the dollar.
