Sunday, September 25th 2011

Sunday Special: PC Gaming On the Rise, Set To Outsell Consoles by 2014 - NVIDIA

Some claim that PC gaming is dying. However, recent trends as explained by NVIDIA, disagree and it is in fact console gaming that will soon decline, as PCs have some compelling advantages such as ever improving graphics and moddability, to keep the gaming scene thriving. Techgage held a conference call with NVIDIA, where the company explained why PC gaming is on the up and up. PC gaming software sales are growing fast, according to this comparative graph and the predicted crossover point is 2014:

PC processing power is increasing rapidly and is now estimated to be around ten times that of consoles - a compelling advantage and one that will only increase:

So, how long can consoles hold out with their static, aging technology? Not much longer, one would expect.

Another way to measure PC game sales success, is to look at the continuing rise of online digital distribution. As you can see, sales of retail boxed copies have declined, while online sales have shot up:

While not shown on this graph, there's no arguing that the biggest online platform, Steam, is extremely successful and shows no sign of slowing down. PC hardware can now render near photo-realistic graphics that could only be dreamed of a few years ago, making them a much better platform for gaming from a technical perspective. Also, the PC platform is very amenable to modding, which can build huge fanbases for a particular game which helps to drive sales, something consoles sorely lack. Many gamers much prefer the control offered by a keyboard and mouse too. So, console gamers have long mocked PC gamers for the "decline" of their platform, but for how much longer? All this is excellent news for PC enthusiasts who like to play graphically intensive games and gives them a reason to upgrade their hardware regularly to the latest and greatest. No doubt, it makes hardware manufacturers equally happy.

Note that this is NVIDIAs take on it and they have an interest in selling ever more powerful graphics cards, so it's a good idea to watch market trends from various different sources. However, their information seems reasonable enough.

Head on over to the original Techgage article for more details and some comparative screenshots between Battlefield 2 and Battlefield 3. The improvement in realism is really quite amazing and makes BF2 look a bit dated now.Source: Techgage
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64 Comments on Sunday Special: PC Gaming On the Rise, Set To Outsell Consoles by 2014 - NVIDIA

#1
Kreij
Senior Monkey Moderator
I agree with that, RejZoR.
Posted on Reply
#3
caleb
Looks like Digital Sales saved the PC.
I think they earn a lot of cash with older titles at lower prices and it wasn't possible without the ability to sell it via web.
Posted on Reply
#4
RejZoR
Plus its a good way for those who missed a title to play it. Either because you haven't noticed it or because you were too young to play that. Or you haven't even been born... So yeah, services like GOG are really cool in fact.
Posted on Reply
#5
laszlo
irrelevant statement from nvidia

as the new consoles reach market the games for these will be made and again the chart will switch

unfortunately we'll have less&less 1st pc game releases only stupid ports with endless patches...
Posted on Reply
#6
Benetanegia
This is just a marketing stunt by Nvidia, and should be taken as that. Of course their conclusions are optimistic, it's the typical marketing BS. As a PC gamer I'd like it to be true though.

However it should be noted that the data comes from DFC (as is specified in the charts), which is a market research and consulting firm centered on the gaming bussiness since 1993 (I googled DFC to see what it is). Nvidia is just basing these charts in DFC's forecasts released recently, just like I supose many other companies whose bussines is centered around gaming are doing at least to a degree, I guess they use many sources.

http://www.dfcint.com/wp/?p=311
http://www.dfcint.com/wp/?p=48

My point is that Nvidia is not "smoking anything" or doing anything like that as it has been suggested more than once, they are just using which is (probably) the most optimistic forecast out there, because it benefits them. But the forecast is legit and is out there for anyone to use. I think it is important to be accurate on this, a market research firm has published these results, it's not wishful thinking on Nvidia's part. Whether DFC is smoking anything or not, that's a different thing, but I guess that if they are in the bussiness since 1993 it means they do their work as well as any other market research firm.


EDIT: I'd like to also point out that the decrease on concole games makes a lot of sense to me. Next-gen consoles are expected sometime around 2014 or 2015 last time I heard. So I expect far lower console games sales from 1 year prior to the release to 1 year after the release. The reasons are

1- No more Xbox360/PS3 consoles sold in anticipation of the new gen, which means no growth in that market. In part is this influx of new consoles which drives a large proportion of games sales. People with new consoles need to build up a portfolio of games. People with a good portfolio tend to buy a lot less.

2- People will save up for a new console, so that will prevent them from buying games other than the most anticipated ones.

That was true when Xbox360 and PS3 were released* and it will be true again in the future, and that's without accounting for the fact that PC gaming is becoming much stronger (awareness, digital distribution, stronger IGP/basic GPU) and that mobile devices such as phones or tablets may steal a large part of casual gamers off consoles.

* And even then sales were probably better than they could have been if both consoles had been released at the same time, since PS2 games still sold a lot more than XB360 or PS3 games most probably will in the coming years, because the past generation sold a lot more consoles than this one, specifically the PS2.
Posted on Reply
#7
Recus
by: THRiLL KiLL
the thing that keeps the console market going is piracy.

looking at the overall picture, consoles have less piracy then pc based titles do.
But it has second hand resellers.
Quantic Dream потеряла от 5 до 10 млн. евро от продаж Heavy Rain на вторичном рынке.

В качестве примера можно привести Heavy Rain, мы продали примерно 2 млн. копий игры, а по данным системы трофеев выходит, что ее купили и поиграли в нее более 3 млн. человек.

Получается, что более 1 млн. человек играли в Heavy Rain, не заплатив нам за это ни цента.

http://www.gametech.ru/cgi-bin/show.pl?option=news&id=23548
http://www.tweakguides.com/Piracy_5.html
Because they are noobs. How many years took to release PS3 Jailbreak? Ubisoft PC DRM hacked in seconds.
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#8
Regenweald
by: EastCoasthandle
I have to wonder if next gen consoles will use or exclude their hardware?
This. 3 next gen consoles. 3 AMD design wins. Hence Nvidia's new mantra.
Posted on Reply
#9
pantherx12
by: Swansen


that said, i think this issue still stands that purchasing PC hardware is much more expensive vs a console, as well, while PC games are developed for ever expanding hardware, consoles obviously do not change. )
Naw it isn't most people have a PC and a console anyway. So for example buy a £300 pc as normal.

Instead of spending up to £200 pounds on a console, buy a £100 graphics card and a controller if you're playing 3rd person games and bam, a device that does everything.

Lets not forget all the £20 savings you get from buying pc games vs console games ( typical retail price for console games is £50 at launch here, PC games are 29.99 typically )


Regarding longevity, if you run your games at console settings then no need to upgrade. at all.
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#10
Recus
by: Regenweald
3 AMD design wins.
According TessMark future games won't have insane tessellation. Not sure if win. :shadedshu
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#11
nt300
by: Regenweald
This. 3 next gen consoles. 3 AMD design wins. Hence Nvidia's new mantra.
Fully agree, it all has do to with the screwup of the original XBOX overheating and such. AMD won all the design wins for the PlayStation 4, XBOX 720 and the Wii 2HD......
Posted on Reply
#12
qubit
Overclocked quantum bit
by: nt300
Fully agree, it all has do to with the screwup of the original XBOX overheating and such. AMD won all the design wins for the PlayStation 4, XBOX 720 and the Wii 2HD......
What, nvidia engage in marketing fud? Never!

/nvidia fanboy here. :p
Posted on Reply
#13
AsRock
TPU addict
by: newtekie1
Ok, maybe it is just me but this slide makes no sense at all to me. WTF is nVidia smoking to even try to pass that off. I mean I get that they just lost bids for both next gen consoles to AMD and want to downplay consoles, but this slide is just stupid.

So for the past 3 years PC sales have gone up, so they assume that for the next 3 years they will continue to go up. Ok, that is fine. However, for the past 3 years console sales have been going up too. So why, for any reason, would they assume that console sales will go down for the next 3 years? What sense does that make?

So

Past growth in PCs = Future Growth in PCs

but

Past growth in Consoles = Future decline in Consoles

I want what they're smokin'.

http://www.techpowerup.com/img/11-09-25/nvidia_trends_01.png
Big fat doobies

by: Mussels
because the rate of growth is slowing, and no new consoles are due til 2015
Yes but that chart as this year 2011 went up and their predicting it's going go down every year from next year. There is no fact that this will happen, in fact more might buy console games thinking there console will be good for another 2-3 years before the next gen console is out.
Posted on Reply
#14
yogurt_21
by: AsRock
Big fat doobies



Yes but that chart as this year 2011 went up and their predicting it's going go down every year from next year. There is no fact that this will happen, in fact more might buy console games thinking there console will be good for another 2-3 years before the next gen console is out.
obviously you didn't read beneteneiga's post above.
Posted on Reply
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