Thursday, November 15th 2012
PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst
Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Barclays, slashed his already grim outlook for PC sales, and cautioned that demand for PCs could drop for "years to come." In his report, Reitzes writes "We are lowering our 2012-2016 PC forecasts due to weak macro conditions, confusion around Windows 8, ongoing cannibalization from tablets, and an elongation in replacement cycles," adding "Also, a long-running belief by PC leaders is that emerging markets are destined to reach the 100% PC-penetration rate (per person) that exists today in the U.S., however, we believe that key markets may only reach a fraction of the U.S. penetration rate as consumers now realize a balance between tablets and smart phones - at a far earlier stage in development."
A major factor in declining PC sales could be slow PC replacement rate, "with analysis pointing toward a 1-2 year extension in the replacement rate from 2010-2015 due to income diverted to 'disruptive' mobile products like tablets and smart phones across the globe." Among the companies whose price targets and estimates Reitzes cut are HP and Dell.
Source:
Forbes
A major factor in declining PC sales could be slow PC replacement rate, "with analysis pointing toward a 1-2 year extension in the replacement rate from 2010-2015 due to income diverted to 'disruptive' mobile products like tablets and smart phones across the globe." Among the companies whose price targets and estimates Reitzes cut are HP and Dell.
58 Comments on PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst
The products that don't suck - the XPS series, is doing better than all the other lines. I think they are ignoring quality a bit.
And the article is a little misleading. Sure PC companies may go bankrupt, but this is because the users are getting smarter and prefer to assembly the PC for themselves instead of buying an overpriced build.
with powerful tablets and even more powerful laptops, the desktop pc will no doubt be relegated to "power" users or those that simply like to tinker, which as mailman said is a tiny niche in the market.
But seriously I agree with you. Enthusiasts will have to turn to workstations, sooner or later. I'm guessing later. And if you've been saying it for years it can't be soon. :p
Don't touch my i7, dang kids!
Well, probably won't be that bad, if we get 28'' laptops ("Benchtops"?)
THe reason there has been a slow down in PC sales is because there has been a change for the need to buy some or every person in the house or family a new PC, where 1 PC can be replaced and the older PC is handed down, to either grandparents or young kids who don't need a brand new PC thus there is no need to Replace everything. This is prolonging the lifespan of a PC in general.
This does of course mean that the sales is losing steam and companies should adjust to that. Lower production rate to accommodate the lower demand. Due to the less sales made by the companies its starting to cost more to manufacture a product because its not selling, this does cause the initual product thats sold to be marked up pretty high to cover for already manufactured product thats not selling, thus covering losses. Any form of loss for a company looks bad for its shareholders.
Barcleys though.. bleh their opinions and research is like a fart on a windy day...
And yeah The MS win 8 Surface I'd call more of a Hybrid between a tablet/notebook/PC. Kinda like one of those mythological creatures. MS step is in the better direction for the company and the future of developing PCs for general use. The enthusiasts have become the endangered Specie but thats what makes us so special :-)
I am not happy about it, but the market will die. I am not sure how much power us enthusiasts have over the market, but hopefully it is enough for them to still remember us, and still be able to produce for us.
I can say that if anyone can save us, it will be Steam, but even then I think they would be more likely to go where the money is, and would rather have a steam platform on the tablet.
You heard it here first: Steam for Android.
So I do not agree that the PC enthusiast market will go away. Especially when the profit margin for tablets and mobile devices keeps getting lower and lower because of so much competition.
Right now why would Intel or Nvidia change over to making chips that they are only getting a 20% margin on when they can make the enthusiast chips can cards that they can mark up 200%?
However I don't think the 1% enthusiast market will grow in size either. It will stay about the size it is now.
TV's
yup tv's can now go on the net, be hooked to a wireless keyboard/mouse, hooked to netflix, and now google tv has gaming as well. Want cad/photoshop workstation beefy stuff? virtualization. Sign up for a service and get access to a beefy virtual desktop that can run all that stuff. While file transfer back and forth is still a bit problematic, its becoming less and less of an issue.
Soon all you'll need is the tv and a mobile device (phone, tablet, etc) to manage all needs.
While gaming might create an upgrade your expensive tv often issue, virtualization might solve that as well. Can you imagine, all the money we spend on hardware filtered into a monthly service fee? Might even come as a bundle with your net service.
you will always want the larger screen for gaming/photoshop/multi-tasking, etc.
Tv's are now beginning to come out as the aiw home solution while a large screen smartphone acts as the aiw on the go solution.
ad car docking stations with projectors onto the windshield (no that's not the future, 2000-2003 pontiacs had that for the speedometer/odometer/etc) and your phone becomes your on to go desktop. Virtualization links it all. No matter where you are you sign into the same virtual desktop.
consolitis isn't entirely gaming based. Most of my friends use them to get online/netflix, etc.
do you realize there is an average of 3 tvs per household in the U.S.?
do you realize that the U.S. average is less than 2 active smartphones per household? Do you also realize that tablets barely even show up on a per household margin?
a TV is something they would likely buy anyway. the prevalence of them in homes only supports this. right now apps are something novel but it will take a while before they are taken seriously and in turn before tvs are taken seriously as an alternative to a personal computing device of some sort.
The only desktop form factor I see with longevity is mITX. Just sayin. :p
Oh, and there will be "apps" that make those desktops necessary. Like, say...cable service? Game service? What is lacking right now is a proper amount of ingenuity and foresight in the market. All a device needs is ONE..JUST ONE killer app, that people MUST have. Win8...has nothing. However, if the XBOXtablet comes...soon...
WiiU plays an important role in user mindset when it comes to prolonging desktop longevity as a consumer device. If you do not understand how, well, oh well. :p