Possibly the First AAA Game That Will Require a Ray Tracing GPU

[64K]

Morgan McGuire, a spokesperson for Nvidia, says that the first game requiring a Ray Tracing enabled GPU will be coming in 2023 and it's going to be for ray tracing enabled GPUs only and will not run on non ray tracing GPUs. tbh I expected something AAA coming that way before 2023 but it can still happen before then.

NVIDIA's Morgan McGuire: "First triple-A game to require a ray tracing GPU will be released in 2023"

While real-time ray tracing is a tech that NVIDIA is currently trying to push, it appears that the first triple-A game that will require a Ray Tracing graphics card will not be coming out anytime soon. According to NVIDIA’s Morgan McGuire, the first triple-A game that will not run on non-Ray...

www.dsogaming.com

 

[dirtyferret]

Four years to upgrade for anyone that wants to play it...

 

[rtwjunkie]

Which means it won’t be long after that most new games will follow suit. So five years is a long time for anyone to keep a GPU, 7 years if we are talking Pascal. I’m betting RTX will be something everybody who buys Nvidia will have, as well as AMD’s take on RTRT. If for no ither reason than every GPU by then is RTRT capable. Thankfully they will still be able to play older games too.

 

[eidairaman1]

And watch all of the flack they get and eventually antitrust

 

[danbert2000]

There would really have to be some sort of raytracing gameplay to make this a requirement. Otherwise, developers could just start doing barebones alternatives to raytracing effects like shadows/lighting or ambient occlusion or reflections. Honestly, this is probably going to be an outlier even 10-15 years from now. Why would you *require* RTRT on a game, shrinking your customer base even by a little, unless it is required for game mechanics?

 

[EarthDog]

Because both amd amd nv will have rtrt cards in the market by then. In four years, many will have rtrt cards as even the budget cards will be able to run it.

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

I’m curious what future GPUs will look like if we move to a RTRT world? Current GPUs are built around rasterization. Will cards 10 years from now even be able to play today’s games without them being remastered?

 

[TheoneandonlyMrK]

Because both amd amd nv will have rtrt cards in the market by then. In four years, many will have rtrt cards as even the budget cards will be able to run it.

I don't know about that, will there even be a budget card in four years both Amd and intel will hopefully have a useable igpu by then or the cost won't be budget in any normal sense.

 

[AsRock]

Well 4 years time or not, for games to require such feature is foolish. It's just not needed, sure nice i guess i realllllllY missing not having NOT.

Not high on my list now and it well not be in 4 years time either.

 

[Shihab]

Technically, many GPUs today are "ray tracing GPUs." If you read that no differently than you'd take API level support in cards. If an executable "requires" a specific shader model, it'll "run" as long as the card can understand the instructions, regardless of whether it does so in 16ms or 16 hours.

As for what would make a game require one, for the same reason a game ends up requiring D3d10, 11 or 12 support: Gamedevs can't invest in coding for every API out there!

Personally, I'm dissappointed by the fact that we'd have to wait until 2034 to see real-time path tracing. 15 more years of hackjob AO and GI?

 

[Darmok N Jalad]

I think it comes down to transistor budget. Will the transistors needed to properly ray trace a game at the same resolution eventually catch up to the transistors needed for rasterization? If it eventually becomes 1:1, or even remotely close, why not go to the more accurate solution?

 

[advanced3]

Morgan McGuire, a spokesperson for Nvidia, says that the first game requiring a Ray Tracing enabled GPU will be coming in 2023 and it's going to be for ray tracing enabled GPUs only and will not run on non ray tracing GPUs. tbh I expected something AAA coming that way before 2023 but it can still happen before then.

NVIDIA's Morgan McGuire: "First triple-A game to require a ray tracing GPU will be released in 2023"

While real-time ray tracing is a tech that NVIDIA is currently trying to push, it appears that the first triple-A game that will require a Ray Tracing graphics card will not be coming out anytime soon. According to NVIDIA’s Morgan McGuire, the first triple-A game that will not run on non-Ray...

www.dsogaming.com

He "predicts"......big difference.

 

[EarthDog]

I don't know about that, will there even be a budget card in four years both Amd and intel will hopefully have a useable igpu by then or the cost won't be budget in any normal sense.

whatever is budget $ by then..

 

[eidairaman1]

I don't know about that, will there even be a budget card in four years both Amd and intel will hopefully have a useable igpu by then or the cost won't be budget in any normal sense.

Amd already has it, intel wont

 

[ratirt]

I think it is a trick to scare people they won't be able to play games because their gpu doesn't support Ray Tracing. NV is telling you to buy RTX. Bull crap it is. NV and AMD can give features and make game developers use it but they can't say this will be only for RT cards because it is not for them to decide. Besides, in 4 years time, who knows what will happen and what the gaming market and gpu market will look like. There's plenty of time still to make adjustments. All cards we use now, including RTX will be obsolete if this is true (which I'm almost 100% sure it isn't)

 

[Vayra86]

Four years to upgrade for anyone that wants to play it...

It?

What?

So we have a guy from Nvidia saying he predicts some sort of game will be out by then. Yawn. We've seen that before, haven't we... those are the most forgettable games ever, glorified tech demo material.

I think it is a trick to scare people they won't be able to play games because their gpu doesn't support Ray Tracing. NV is telling you to buy RTX. Bull crap it is. NV and AMD can give features and make game developers use it but they can't say this will be only for RT cards because it is not for them to decide. Besides, in 4 years time, who knows what will happen and what the gaming market and gpu market will look like. There's plenty of time still to make adjustments. All cards we use now, including RTX will be obsolete if this is true (which I'm almost 100% sure it isn't)

They can (and probably will or already have) fund a developer or two to make them a marketing game. A bit like Ashes, which is real fun for five minutes. Game =/= content you need to buy because its good.

 

[ratirt]

They can (and probably will or already have) fund a developer or two to make them a marketing game. A bit like Ashes, which is real fun for five minutes. Game =/= content you need to buy because its good.

Seems kinda risky from a developer point of view. Choosing sides isn't a good thing because you are supporting only a percentage of cards not all of them (I'm not talking about low end cards). If you want to place a bet than sure go for it but i would not risk it. Bad marketing unless it is just this one game and the rest is regular from that particular game developer. Growing doesn't mean choosing sides but instead be universal and support all kinds of GPUs, not just the one brand.

BTW. Ashes is different from what this post is all about. Ashes supports all cards and it is being used as a benchmark. From what I understand from this post, game is going to be and exception only to Ray Tracing support. That is totally different.

 

[64K]

My take on this is that McGuire isn't saying you won't be able to play games without a RTRT GPU after 2023. He is merely saying that the first AAA game requiring it will release in 2023. 4 years from now when most people on Maxwell or Pascal will have upgraded anyway. also I don't think Nvidia is trying to scare people into upgrading. For the other dozen or so AAA games that release in 2023 you can probably just turn RTX off if you are still running a GPU that is 6 or 7 years old.

The nextgen consoles will have hardware accelerated ray tracing effects.

For now it looks like we are pushing tech forward towards RTRT and it could fizzle out but I hope it doesn't. It's nothing to be fearful of. Probably the main fear seems to be the costs of GPUs geared towards RTRT but bear in mind that with any new hardware tech prices are usually very high. The early adopters pay the price for the R&D so that most of us don't have to. I think that is what we are seeing with Turings. Prices of the next couple of generations may be more affordable for the masses. If AMD can squeeze the tech into a $500 console then that is evidence that prices will probably come down for discreet GPUs as well.

 

[Frick]

If it's a good Jedi Knight (as opposed to a Jedi Knight) I'm fine with it.

 

[kurosagi01]

It come out in 4 years time but it probably will be another 2 years for any upcoming hardware that will be able to play it smoothly.
Crysis all over again yeah??

 

[dirtyferret]

It?

What?

Sorry, typed off my phone. "It" as in whatever game is launched then and yes it will probably be more a tech demo then anything else.

Crysis all over again yeah??

Funny thing about Crysis was it actually scaled better then people remembered. I played it on an Nvidia 8600GT at medium settings while my 9800GT had a hard time with it at higher settings.

 

[kurosagi01]

Funny thing about Crysis was it actually scaled better then people remembered. I played it on an Nvidia 8600GT at medium settings while my 9800GT had a hard time with it at higher settings.

I played it with ATI Radeon X800 on medium it worked alright, then upgraded to 9600 GT and managed to play the game with mixture of medium to high and same with 8800/9800GT.
High settings preset made it difficult to run indeed but yes I think whatever this game going to be I could see it being a Crysis saga.

 

[xtreemchaos]

trust Nvidia backwards thinking for moving forward or is it forwards thinking for moving backwards now ive gone and give myself a headache ...

 

[Flogger23m]

Doubt it. It may happen, but four years is not a long time. We'll see at least two generations of Nvidia video cards release by then but I still doubt it will be affordable down to $180-200. And if you skip that demographic you'll miss out on most PC gamers. I suppose if consoles have it (where most sales are made) it wouldn't be too bad, but still, you'll exclude yourself from maybe 30% of all PC gamers. Maybe more considering people are buying expensive ($300-400) AMD cards right now without ray tracing.

 

[John Naylor]

Morgan McGuire, a spokesperson for Nvidia, says that the first game requiring a Ray Tracing enabled GPU will be coming in 2023 and it's going to be for ray tracing enabled GPUs only and will not run on non ray tracing GPUs. tbh I expected something AAA coming that way before 2023 but it can still happen before then.

In other words "standard operating procedure". It's important to understand the difference between the words "capable" and "required". PCs cycle out every 3 - 5 years. So for a game developer to invest time, money and effort into a product ... he'd have to be a relative of the CEO to make a stoopid decision such as making it "required" thereby limiting potential sales in an era where the hardware was limiting.

Is this is any different from say 4k ? Primary display resolution of 3840 x 2160 accounts for just 1.61% of the market. How bright would a game dev be to **require** a reolution of 4k ? Would it be a smart move to have minumum system requirements that 98.39% of the potential market can not participate ? I'd call that the fast line to unemployment benefits. As with any new technology in gaming, hardware that is "new feature capable" is introduced ... making it required only makes sense when it's presence is near saturation.

As far as the technology being affordable ... it already is w/ support now available on the $200 1660 .

https://assets.rockpapershotgun.com/images/2019/05/GTX-1660-ray-tracing-Shadow-of-the-Tomb-Raider.png

he RTX cards are selling well

The 2060 (0.85%) showed the 6th largest (0.17%) month to month increase in market share in June, eclipsing the RX 570 (0.65%)
The 2070 (1.10%) showed the 7th largest (0.15%) month to month increase in market share in June
The 2080 (0.65%) showed the th largest (0.11%) month to month increase in market share in June

All three of them have more market share than all any AMD cards except the 580 which has 1.32%. And since the RTX cards release, it's all AMD can do to talk about their own ray tracing plans. It's a pretty safe bet that Ray Tracing will have more widespread usage by 2023 than 2160p will. ... or even 1440p for that matter.

Not to mention the fact that automitic ray tracing is a huge load of game developers who prior to, had to code all these effects manualy. Most of next gen cards will be RT enabled and next gen after that it will be ubiquitous.