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Am I the only one dreading 2021 hardware availability, pricing, etc.?

Do you think you'll be able to buy the hardware for any planned upgrades in 2021?

  • Of course, I don't expect any notable price or availability issues

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • Yes, but at raised prices and a bit of luck finding stock

    Votes: 9 11.4%
  • Yes, but at raised prices

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • Yes, but only by obsessively monitoring stocks

    Votes: 2 2.5%
  • Maybe, but I really can't tell at this point

    Votes: 14 17.7%
  • No, due to pricing

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • No, due to availability

    Votes: 4 5.1%
  • No, pricing, availability, Covid-19 and everything else has made upgrades highly unlikely for me

    Votes: 18 22.8%
  • No upgrades planned, thankfully

    Votes: 23 29.1%

  • Total voters
    79
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So I guess we're all intimately familiar with the hardware shortages of the past few months, with both CPUs and GPUs hardly ever in stock and at prices far above MSRP, as well as Asus' recent announcement of (very noticeably) increased MSRPs, and so on. There are obviously some reasons - it's the first time in history where we only have a single cutting-edge process node (Samsung and Intel are clearly behind TSMC, GloFo dropped out years ago), we have new consoles just launched, selling at record numbers with large APUs made on the same node as AMD's CPUs and GPUs, there's unprecedented PC hardware demand due to people suddenly staying home a lot more, and so on. And there seems to be a new (but more hush-hush) crypto boom happening, which may or may not be causing GPU manufacturers to allocate stocks directly to this highly profitable high volume market (b2b sales with zero software support and tiny warranties sounds like an ideal scenario for raking in profits) rather than to end users, which given the fab squeeze makes broad GPU availability even more precarious. Are we seeing a repeat of the 2017 GPU shortage, just exacerbated by a heap of new complicating factors?

Do you expect any upgrades you might have planned for 2021 to go smoothly?

Me, I've been planning a (likely) full system upgrade, but especially my now more than 5-year-old GPU is really in desperate need of replacing. I've been holding off waiting for RDNA 2, and have my sights set on a 6800 XT, but now I don't really see it as likely that I'll be able to get one - at least not in the first half of 2021, and maybe not at all.
 
2021 is a full year. Q1 looks obviously problematic but beyond that it depends. by all indications things should normalize after a little while, especially with saturation slowly creeping in on both CPU and GPU fronts.
 
SFX psu is also a nightmare to get. And Seasonic that takes FOREVER to release their higher end sfx line up...
 
I'm not planning to upgrade in 2021, this laptop is good enough for 2021.
 
I snagged an RTX2060 for €300 so I'm basically set for a whole sleuth of years. The 2600x will last long too. I have been thinking about getting a 1TB M2 SSD but 1TB is not enough for the games actually and 2TB drives are really expensive. The PSU isn't very good and I even think it's group regulated which means it's not very good at handling my new GPU, so I am looking out for a deal on something more modern. But other than that my computer will last me a very long while.
 
2021 is a full year. Q1 looks obviously problematic but beyond that it depends. by all indications things should normalize after a little while, especially with saturation slowly creeping in on both CPU and GPU fronts.
Is there actually any indication that things will improve past Q1, though? I guess console production volumes will drop off somewhat, and depending on the effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines we might see a drop-off in hardware demand and a gradual return to normal logistics costs/timeframes, but there's no way that's happening before the summer. If the crypto scene gets even close to 2017 levels I don't see GPUs being widely available at reasonable prices for the coming year. There are no new 7nm fabs coming online, and while TSMC has had 5nm in volume production for a while now, there are no GPUs coming on that node for at least a year, with CPUs possibly showing up in late 2021 but also more likely in 2022. If AMD moves the majority of their CPU production to 5nm in Q4 in preparation for a 2022Q1 Zen 4 launch that will free up some 7nm capacity, but we won't be seeing that until 2022 no matter what. And there are no other major 7nm customers likely to move forward to 5nm that haven't already done so.

I snagged an RTX2060 for €300 so I'm basically set for a whole sleuth of years. The 2600x will last long too. I have been thinking about getting a 1TB M2 SSD but 1TB is not enough for the games actually and 2TB drives are really expensive. The PSU isn't very good and I even think it's group regulated which means it's not very good at handling my new GPU, so I am looking out for a deal on something more modern. But other than that my computer will last me a very long while.
That's some good timing! SSDs are cheaper than ever though, and projected to keep dropping, so I don't think you have too much to worry about there. 2TB drives won't hit $100 any time soon (silicon isn't that cheap), but as they creep downwards sales volumes pick up, making them easier to sell at lower margins. So it might not be that bleak for SSDs, thankfully. RAM is also (finally!) back to sensible pricing after years of inflated nonsense pricing.
SFX psu is also a nightmare to get. And Seasonic that takes FOREVER to release their higher end sfx line up...
I completely forgot about that, but I'll also be needing one of those. Yay.
I'm not planning to upgrade in 2021, this laptop is good enough for 2021.
Added an option to the poll for no planned upgrades :)
 
Prices were pretty bad already even before all this.
 
Me, I've been planning a (likely) full system upgrade, but especially my now more than 5-year-old GPU is really in desperate need of replacing. I've been holding off waiting for RDNA 2, and have my sights set on a 6800 XT, but now I don't really see it as likely that I'll be able to get one - at least not in the first half of 2021, and maybe not at all.

My staggered upgrade cycle should have had me updating my 1070 when the RTX 30 series / RX 6000 series launched but with the lack of stock and uncertainty of new/revised models possibly just over the horizon (again probably with stock issues) I just don't know what to do... it's getting a real struggle for the 1070 to run my ultrawide at a decent framerate, I've had to resort to dropping down to 16:9 in some games just to keep a constant 60fps.
 
Prices were pretty bad already even before all this.
Oh, absolutely. GPU pricing has been stupidly high essentially since the 2017 crypto wave (it's just that 2018 GPUs had silly high MSRPs rather than being inflated later in the distribution chain), with Ampere MSRPs promising a return to a vague semblance of normalcy, but that sure doesn't seem likely to come true any time soon.

Makes me wonder if something has gone seriously wrong in the economics of the GPU production chain. It's well known that margins in hardware production are tight, but are they so tight that manufacturers need 20-30% markups to not lose money? If so, something is very wrong.
 
Is there actually any indication that things will improve past Q1, though? I guess console production volumes will drop off somewhat, and depending on the effectiveness of the Covid-19 vaccines we might see a drop-off in hardware demand and a gradual return to normal logistics costs/timeframes, but there's no way that's happening before the summer. If the crypto scene gets even close to 2017 levels I don't see GPUs being widely available at reasonable prices for the coming year. There are no new 7nm fabs coming online, and while TSMC has had 5nm in volume production for a while now, there are no GPUs coming on that node for at least a year, with CPUs possibly showing up in late 2021 but also more likely in 2022. If AMD moves the majority of their CPU production to 5nm in Q4 in preparation for a 2022Q1 Zen 4 launch that will free up some 7nm capacity, but we won't be seeing that until 2022 no matter what. And there are no other major 7nm customers likely to move forward to 5nm that haven't already done so.
Maybe I am an optimist :)

Console production doesn't so much drop off as it levels out. Covid is gradually becoming more handled.
Ryzen 5000 availability - and related to that, pricing - is starting to normalize. RTX 3000 cards (except 3080) are fairly well available now. Samsung 8nm seems to have been a reasonable choice.
Mining is the big unknown when it comes to GPUs, it is currently back to being profitable :(

Apple M1 is on 5nm but it is also an early bird on that, other SoCs and then other stuff will follow in a year or so.
 
No upgrades unless something breaks.
 
Maybe I am an optimist :)

Console production doesn't so much drop off as it levels out. Covid is gradually becoming more handled.
Ryzen 5000 availability - and related to that, pricing - is starting to normalize. RTX 3000 cards (except 3080) are fairly well available now. Samsung 8nm seems to have been a reasonable choice.
Mining is the big unknown when it comes to GPUs, it is currently back to being profitable :(

Apple M1 is on 5nm but it is also an early bird on that, other SoCs and then other stuff will follow in a year or so.
I think you are ;)

I was hoping it was clear that console production would level out after dropping off (they'll probably get a 5nm refresh in 2022-23, but current-gen consoles will stick around in one form or another for the next decade), my point was that there might be some fab capacity opening up after pre- and launch window production volumes taper off to a more steady-state level - but not that much given that the consoles are still nowhere near in stock.

You're right that Ryzen 5000 supply seems to be leveling out, but that's both the lowest volume product of these (GPU upgrades are far more common than CPU upgrades), and the one that's been out the longest. There's little reason to believe this means production will be going down any time soon, so it won't help alleviate anything else. Also, prices still seem to be distinctly higher than MSRP for CPUs.

I'm wondering where you're seeing RTX 30-series cards in stock though. If by "fairly well available" you mean "don't sell out in a couple of hours after restocking", that's ... nowhere near good enough. I still can't find any in stock anywhere from the quick look-around I just did. That's obviously not representative, but ...
 
I'm wondering where you're seeing RTX 30-series cards in stock though. If by "fairly well available" you mean "don't sell out in a couple of hours after restocking", that's ... nowhere near good enough. I still can't find any in stock anywhere from the quick look-around I just did. That's obviously not representative, but ...
When it comes to MSRP-like prices there is almost no stock although you can snipe one with some effort.
But with inflated prices - things like 550€ 3060Ti's, 700€ 3070's or 1700€ 3090's are regularly or sometimes constantly available. 1000€ 3080 is easy enough to get as well.
Unfortunately that stock also moves in and out pretty fast so people are very obviously buying cards with these inflated prices.
 
...there's unprecedented PC hardware demand due to people suddenly staying home a lot more, and so on.
I doubt that's it at this time of uncertainty, I don't think that anyone rational would buy a heavily overpriced GPU unless they're very stable financially. Can't say I wasn't tested for an ASUS Rog Strix RTX 3080 that was selling for 700€ on ebay though this isn't overpriced. I was thinking of getting it for the new build, but I gave up, and the total of 8 pieces were sold in like 15 minutes. I decided to wait more, enticipating AM5 platform with DDR5 support, and I'm still hoping that GPU and overall hardware prices will return to something reasonable by then, if they don't well, I'll just wait another year. :P
Pretty stupid times to get back into gaming, like me after a 1 year pause.
 
I always plan my upgrades to go smoothly. Availability and price are a non issue in that sense.

If the price isn't right and/or the product isn't available, I'm not planning an upgrade. Pretty simple really. I'm not a slave to commerce and the level of PC I'm upgrading for is far beyond 'needs' and firmly in the 'wants' category.

The 'needs' category is what an employer is for. I think much the same applies to small and 1 man businesses... so bottom line I really don't see any problems tbh, except #firstworldproblems.
 
Put me in the maybe category. As I stated in before I was planning an upgrade this spring. Perhaps that was a bit optimistic may summer I hope.
Interestingly (to me) I've seen two people who run msfs on x99 with butter smooth results. So if I don't mind running at 1920x1080 for awhile (or I can at least get a new graphics card) it may keep me happy enough.
 
im not playing there game, id like a new gpu but i can wait untill i can get one on my terms, my 1080 is still very usable i dont need the latest and greatest honist.
 
Anyone want a 3090? Still some stock here...
 
I want to upgrade my 3080
 
Nah, i'm good for a while.
 
I voted "No upgrades planned, thankfully". Speaking as someone who's been PC gaming 33 years, I think I've reached the stage where if 99.5% of my +2,000 games will run on a GTX 1660 and it's just that last 0.5% that don't, and due to ongoing circumstances prices for making the latter work are spiralling to absurd degrees combined with frame-rates in newer games disproportionately falling off 75% compared to even fairly recent 2016-2017 titles like Doom or Prey often with not that much to show for it, then they have to be pretty damn special to convince me they are worth upgrading for and to be honest CyberBug 2077 and a few other 2018-2020 titles like Control simply aren't. I don't hate them, but for some reason they just don't "click" with me anywhere near what older titles like Witcher 3, Skyrim or Deus Ex did.

I've lost all interest in Call of Duty 723 and "Far Cry 3: Annual Retexture Pack 6" due to "Franchise Fatigue", and looking through my collection, everything bought post 2018 were were Indie's like Dusk, DARQ, The Pedestrian, Supraland, Desperados 3, etc. I've already upgraded everything else (new monitor, laser printer, 2TB SSD, etc, last year). Needless to say, this has allowed me to step outside of the mindless upgrade rat-race, and here I am playing games I actually enjoy the most like The Talos Principle on a lowly GTX 1660 with smooth +100 frame-rates, and am increasingly seeing "I need a £1,000 GPU for playable frame-rates at 1080p on the newest unfinished buggy as hell AAA" as far more of a software than hardware problem (as in "games devs can't optimise for sh*t and I'm done with 'rewarding' that even without hardware availability / pricing issues").
 
Despite what I voted, I dread there being insanely high prices, and insane lack of availability!
 
I always plan my upgrades to go smoothly. Availability and price are a non issue in that sense.

If the price isn't right and/or the product isn't available, I'm not planning an upgrade. Pretty simple really. I'm not a slave to commerce and the level of PC I'm upgrading for is far beyond 'needs' and firmly in the 'wants' category.

The 'needs' category is what an employer is for. I think much the same applies to small and 1 man businesses... so bottom line I really don't see any problems tbh, except #firstworldproblems.
While I see where you're coming from, that's a rather odd understanding of "planning", necessarily including changing your plans dramatically and on relatively short notice depending on market conditions. How can you know well in advance if pricing is going to be right or availability will be there? Of course previously we have been able to assume this to be okay at most times, but that's obviously changed now. A lot of people were planning to buy a $699 3080 after it was announced (or a $499 3070), yet have been entirely unable to do so. There are clear limits to how much one can plan for, after all. Saying "If the price isn't right and/or the product isn't available, I'm not planning an upgrade." assumes these things can be known beforehand, and I assume you aren't actually prescient, so either you would then be retroactively denying having ever made a plan, or you would have been forced to change your plans by outside forces. Obviously starting from a privileged position like what you describe makes being flexible with planning easier, but it doesn't negate the effects of outside forces on planning and decisionmaking.

I doubt that's it at this time of uncertainty, I don't think that anyone rational would buy a heavily overpriced GPU unless they're very stable financially. Can't say I wasn't tested for an ASUS Rog Strix RTX 3080 that was selling for 700€ on ebay though this isn't overpriced. I was thinking of getting it for the new build, but I gave up, and the total of 8 pieces were sold in like 15 minutes. I decided to wait more, enticipating AM5 platform with DDR5 support, and I'm still hoping that GPU and overall hardware prices will return to something reasonable by then, if they don't well, I'll just wait another year. :p
Pretty stupid times to get back into gaming, like me after a 1 year pause.
That is definitely the case for a lot of people, but sales numbers definitely say otherwise. As an example, unemployment in the US has been between 7-8% in recent months. That's high, but that still leaves >90% of the workforce employed. A lot of those still employed will of course either be suffering a lot of insecurity due to the possibility of losing their jobs or from others around them doing so (or just from reduced hours etc.), but in a high income country like the US where a large portion of the population has a lot of disposable income and is suddenly in lockdown, it's still reasonable to predict an uptick in high-cost at-home devices. That obviously doesn't change just how horrible this situation has been and continues to be for the still large proportion of the population that have been struck by this in some way, but another depressing part of this equation is that low-income households are by far the most likely to be harmed by this, as they typically have both the least job security, the highest risk of falling ill, and the worst healthcare. But they are also the least likely to be buying DIY PCs to begin with. If anything, crises like the current one highlights and exacerbates class distinctions and economic disparity.

im not playing there game, id like a new gpu but i can wait untill i can get one on my terms, my 1080 is still very usable i dont need the latest and greatest honist.
I've been in that boat since ... 2018? I bought my Fury X planning for a 3+ year life-span and have continuously found good reasons to hold off - and I'm extremely happy with how long it's lasted me - but obviously this supply crunch is coming at pretty much the worst possible time. I've been holding off playing a few games for a year or more in anticipation of a GPU upgrade (I want Control and Metro Exodus with RT, among other things), so the pieces were finally coming together for me ... until they suddenly disappeared :p

I voted "No upgrades planned, thankfully". Speaking as someone who's been PC gaming 33 years, I think I've reached the stage where if 99.5% of my +2,000 games will run on a GTX 1660 and it's just that last 0.5% that don't, and due to ongoing circumstances prices for making the latter work are spiralling to absurd degrees combined with frame-rates in newer games disproportionately falling off 75% compared to even fairly recent 2016-2017 titles like Doom or Prey often with not that much to show for it, then they have to be pretty damn special to convince me they are worth upgrading for and to be honest CyberBug 2077 and a few other 2018-2020 titles like Control simply aren't. I don't hate them, but for some reason they just don't "click" with me anywhere near what older titles like Witcher 3, Skyrim or Deus Ex did.

I've lost all interest in Call of Duty 723 and "Far Cry 3: Annual Retexture Pack 6" due to "Franchise Fatigue", and looking through my collection, everything bought post 2018 were were Indie's like Dusk, DARQ, The Pedestrian, Supraland, Desperados 3, etc. I've already upgraded everything else (new monitor, laser printer, 2TB SSD, etc, last year). Needless to say, this has allowed me to step outside of the mindless upgrade rat-race, and here I am playing games I actually enjoy the most like The Talos Principle on a lowly GTX 1660 with smooth +100 frame-rates, and am increasingly seeing "I need a £1,000 GPU for playable frame-rates at 1080p on the newest unfinished buggy as hell AAA" as far more of a software than hardware problem (as in "games devs can't optimise for sh*t and I'm done with 'rewarding' that even without hardware availability / pricing issues").
I agree with a lot of what you're saying here, though as mentioned above there are still some AAA titles I want to play. I'm also in the bind of having a 1440p monitor (which looks terrible at 1080p, for the record - it likely has a garbage scaler given that it's from 2011) which does somewhat force my hand into higher end GPUs (or playing at 720p for 4:1 scaling). I'm actually hoping to get a 4k monitor in part due to the ability to run it at 1080p with 4:1 scaling - I use my monitor for work (lots and lots of on-screen text) so going below 1440p 27" is out of the question due to that, though for a pure gaming setup I'd probably want something like a 32" 1080p monitor. I bought my current GPU planning to keep it for a long time, and I plan for the same with the next upgrade, it's just that the timing right now couldn't be much worse for me, as I've reached the point where my GPU is very clearly a hindrance. I could of course upgrade to a lower-end GPU, which would still dramatically outperform my current one, but I don't want to mostly due to the much worse longevity of such a purchase.
 
Its a hard say. While part of me wants to get a new GPU, the other part of me says that my gtx 1070 is still good enough and that GPU's are just too expensive (3060ti I dont think should be costing $550 CAD).
 
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