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Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

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As this discussion topic keeps coming up in other threads it seemed wise to give this particular aspect of cryptocoins a thread to call home. The focus and scope of this thread is to track the values and market trends of cryptocoins of all varieties. Please limit discussion to that topic focus. Other cryptocoin related discussion likely belongs in the General Cryptocoin Discussion thread. Have fun and let's remember to be friendly and civilized!
 
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I did quite a bit of research recently, and from what I can see, crypto is not going away. Ever. It is too late now and it will be here to stay. Too many big players, banks, companies, hedge fund are already in it, and collectively they won't let it fail. The only roadblock would be government intervention but I think it won't derail it completely. Wife asked me to invest 1-2% of the portfolio into crypto when it crashed (she is a green environmentalist, so go figure :rolleyes:), so I did transfer some money and will do so when it crashes. Studying the pattern it seems bitter coin does not drop below $30k so that is probably when I will go in. I only look for 10-15% profit, then I will put a stop sell on it. If it starts dropping again I will sell. In others word, I will be just flipping it, and rinse and repeat. I don't think bitter coin can breach $40k again for several months at least.

This will be a very high risk investment for me, but only 1-2% of my portfolio and I am looking for quick profit. Rinse and repeat. Bitter coin and Ethereum both seem to be on this 10-20% drop and then rebound lately.
 
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I did quite a bit of research recently, and from what I can see, crypto is not going away. Ever. It is too late now and it will be here to stay. Too many big players, banks, companies, hedge fund are already in it, and collectively they won't let it fail. The only roadblock would be government intervention but I think it won't derail it completely. Wife asked me to invest 1-2% of the portfolio into crypto when it crashed (she is a green environmentalist, so go figure :rolleyes:), so I did transfer some money and will do so when it crashes. Studying the pattern it seems bitter coin does not drop below $30k so that is probably when I will go in. I only look for 10-15% profit, then I will put a stop sell on it. If it starts dropping again I will sell. In others word, I will be just flipping it, and rinse and repeat. I don't think bitter coin can breach $40k again for several months at least.

This will be a very high risk investment for me, but only 1-2% of my portfolio and I am looking for quick profit. Rinse and repeat. Bitter coin and Ethereum both seem to be on this 10-20% drop and then rebound lately.

Just a suggestion but, put trend channels on BTC. If you are going to buy, buy at the bottom of the channel. Sell at the top. If it breaks the channel, you know the trend has changed either good or bad and can stop loss if it is declining or hang on if it is rising outside the trend lines.

Short term I think it will fall. Medium term, I'm thinking it will go higher than now. Longer term, I think BTC has much further to fall in the next year.

Short term trend :

1623460649672.png


Medium term projection :

1623461402774.png


30 min chart showing BTC at the top of the daily and hourly trend channels drawn above :

1623461493634.png
 
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RandallFlagg...

Your medium term projection chart...:).

Has the upper trendline on that channel you've drawn really developed a strong enough secondary point to call that a channel? I'm not seeing it. Second, this market has fallen to the primary breakout point from late January 2021. Seems like a normal BTTB, or back to the breakout correction and volume is drying up. If I was still trading markets, I'd be buying this area for a trade with a stop just below 30k. It's what happens at the next peak that would matter to me.

From my perspective...twin peaks around 55k and I'd be long gone. Lastly...you're using a 5 wave pattern which usually signifies that you believe were not in just a pullback...or a-b-c correction, correct? Are you using elliott wave? If you'd point out which method of analysis you're using it would be easier to follow along.

From my perspective...If we do five waves(in a retest of the lows)..we're truncating the fifth and holding 30k. Why? Because the "average complete" decline of BTC has been 48% or so from the very beginning and even in 1929, the first wave of the crash was the same percentage...expecting more than 48% seems a little...much? Perhaps a counter-trend bounce is in order?

Your longer term projection? I'm very much in agreement.

With all of that said...I am enjoying your posting of charts...please continue to do so.

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool
 
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RandallFlagg...

Your medium term projection chart...:).

Has the upper trendline on that channel you've drawn really developed a strong enough secondary point to call that a channel? I'm not seeing it. Second, this market has fallen to the primary breakout point from late January 2021. Seems like a normal BTTB, or back to the breakout correction and volume is drying up. If I was still trading markets, I'd be buying this area for a trade with a stop just below 30k. It's what happens at the next peak that would matter to me.

From my perspective...twin peaks around 55k and I'd be long gone. Lastly...you're using a 5 wave pattern which usually signifies that you believe were not in just a pullback...or a-b-c correction, correct? Are you using elliott wave? If you'd point out which method of analysis you're using it would be easier to follow along.

From my perspective...If we do five waves(in a retest of the lows)..we're truncating the fifth and holding 30k. Why? Because the "average complete" decline of BTC has been 48% or so from the very beginning and even in 1929, the first wave of the crash was the same percentage...expecting more than 48% seems a little...much? Perhaps a counter-trend bounce is in order?

Your longer term projection? I'm very much in agreement.

With all of that said...I am enjoying your posting of charts...please continue to do so.

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool

In this forum, I'm trying to keep it simple. Yes, that's an Elliott Wave pattern - and it's also a Dow Theory pattern 3 legs down with 2 counter trend moves - implying that this is a large impulsive wave down and not a complete corrective, or to Dow Theory - that this is the primary trend.

However, I'm not just assuming that it is not an A-B-C corrective, I'm using some other methods mostly revolving around momentum indicators like RSI / MACD. I've read Rhea's The Dow Theory, and Prechters "The Elliott Wave Principle". I will say, I don't much care for Prechter's group. They are kind of a cult, so I take Elliott Waves with a huge grain of salt. The patterns are fractal but they are also infinite, but some patterns are more common than others and I look for those.

Having said that, the 5-wave impulse is not just an Elliott Wave. It's also part of Dow Theory. What's more, if you traded much at all, impulse waves appear all the time at all degrees of trend and they tend to have certain characteristics. The middle is the strongest part, which can be seen on momentum indicators. Finding the bottom or top of a 5 wave, is a matter of finding momentum divergences and determining how far from the 50 line they are at various time frames.

Internals of correctives - nah, I've never seen anyone who could figure those out. This is where trend channels come in.

My favorite method is very simple and one that Richard Russell put forth on thedowtheory.com That is simple trend lines, and a break of the trend lines has to be >3% of the total value of whatever it is you're looking at to be meaningful. That's for longer term investments ofc. Using their method, a BTC owner would have exited this market in Mid-April at around 55K.

If I were to use that method here, at this moment the trend line I have on daily is about 38000 so a buy signal would be at 39140, I'd call it >39200.

And you're right those trend lines may not work out, but I just comment two things. Trend lines can be redrawn when more information is available, however they provide discipline, which was really my point. Without a plan, you got nothing but feelings, and as you said in another post the market feeds on people who trade on feelings.

The other thing is, if you truly draw a trend line 'correctly' then the pattern is usually almost over. This makes them useless for many people as the trend is about to be broken the moment you can identify it 'correctly'.

You can, however, use a combination patterns and momentum indicators to identify the important price points, which is what I've tried to do here. i.e., the "3" or middle is the strongest move, and the expectation is a momentum divergence on the "5" or last wave.

Here's the current trend line chart, I added the slope divergence on RSI / MACD.

The black line is from the daily chart, the purple trend lines are from hourly Let's see if those trend lines signify something when they're broken, keeping in mind Russell's 3% rule for the daily. The lower daily channel is pretty low though ;)



1623469374038.png
 
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Just a suggestion but, put trend channels on BTC. If you are going to buy, buy at the bottom of the channel. Sell at the top. If it breaks the channel, you know the trend has changed either good or bad and can stop loss if it is declining or hang on if it is rising outside the trend lines.

Short term I think it will fall. Medium term, I'm thinking it will go higher than now. Longer term, I think BTC has much further to fall in the next year.

Short term trend :

View attachment 203471

Medium term projection :

View attachment 203473

30 min chart showing BTC at the top of the daily and hourly trend channels drawn above :

View attachment 203474
Yeah, this is what I'm seeing. Trog might be right, prices may very well settle higher than they were 18months ago.
 
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This is at 5 minute scale, it's zoomed in, showing what I believe is a nearly complete 5-wave pattern down on BTC.

This is more or less what I think the big *daily* chart will look like in the short term, staggering down with less and less downward momentum and then a reversal, upwards 'counter trend' move. That's the 19-22k target range, though target range is just an educated guess - the momentum divergence and trend lines will tell us when it happens. All it really needs to do right now is meet or slightly exceed its recent low, to make a complete impulse wave down.



1623476579762.png
 
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What fundamentals are there in different crypto to consider? Other than who will buy in after me and be the bag holder?

Can't see the past entire thing simply being a technology obfuscated pyramid scheme. New entrants come via social media and covid stimulus provided the recent catalyst.
 
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if you traded much at all

I was a professional trader for a couple of decades, then I moved on to managing Trusts/Foundations until I retired in 2010. I'm also familiar with Dow Theory, our office had a subscription to the Letters for quite a few years. We enjoyed Richards writing, but never used his methods of Analysis. We had our own in house method which primarily relied on Patterned Analysis & Behavioral Psychology combined with something akin to using cycles...even going there, might be a little over the top for a tech forum. Although, I will mention none of us used indicators.

As a previous instructor of Technical Analysis..."Trendlines can be redrawn when more information is available" brought a smile to my face. Thanks.

I agree with your analysis of Prechter's group...although, the word that came to my mind was...creepy...and while I usually avoid them altogether...I do remember them for their strict adherance to rules.

I'm an artist type...I don't do well with rules.

Again, enjoy viewing the charts. I look forward to seeing the "Pattern" as it unfolds...

Best Regards,

Liquid Cool
 
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put trend channels on BTC

So I would really like to know if your Trendlines could have predicted BTC falling to $3.5K last year and then rocketing to $64K this year. Could your charts have picked that up?

Also, I was Just wondering why you guys are predicting that BTC has no end value? Like saying its a "Bubble" for instance.

I would just like to say this:
I was reading something very interesting one day. It was all about a guy who said that he was trying to promote/talk about BTC at some conferences stipulating that the technology was fantastic and everybody said he was crazy. That was a few years ago now. That same guy was the same person trying to promote the Internet way back in 1995 and the same thing happened. Everybody said he was mad.

Edit: Unsure which thread this belongs in now..??
 
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well bitcoin and eth has just taken a smallish 5% dip.. one that caught me by surprise i wasnt expecting it..

eth is doing slightly less well than bitcoin.. altcoins are crashing..

are we gonna have another go at going below that 30K level ??.. f-cked if i know but the recent little dip did surprise me.. i was expect it to go higher not lower..

my nicehash mining returns are also looking pretty abysmal.. he he..

did we peak at 64K ??.. i hope not but maybe we did.. time will tell..

trog
 
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well bitcoin and eth has just taken a smallish 5% dip.. one that caught me by surprise i wasnt expecting it..

eth is doing slightly less well than bitcoin.. altcoins are crashing..

are we gonna have another go at going below that 30K level ??.. f-cked if i know but the recent little dip did surprise me.. i was expect it to go higher not lower..

my nicehash mining returns are also looking pretty abysmal.. he he..

did we peak at 64K ??.. i hope not but maybe we did.. time will tell..

trog

convert it to USDT and then buy back BTC when it drops further. I would do that but I have my BTC, ADA and others staked so nothing I can do but accept the dip.
 
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convert it to USDT and then buy back BTC when it drops further. I would do that but I have my BTC, ADA and others staked so nothing I can do but accept the dip.

i cant be arsed to mess about i just hold what i have and add to my bitcoin stash via nicehash mining.. i do closely follow what is going on and like to think my predictions are as good as any..

i am in it long term and still think long term the only way is up.. short term who knows cos i dont and thats for sure.. he he

trog
 
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i cant be arsed to mess about i just hold what i have and add to my bitcoin stash via nicehash mining.. i do closely follow what is going on and like to think my predictions are as good as any..

i am in it long term and still think long term the only way is up.. short term who knows cos i dont and thats for sure.. he he

trog

I just converted what I had into USDT in Nicehash (about $160 CAD from about 5 days mining) and waiting till BTC goes down to about $40K if it does, then I will convert back to BTC as I should get a bit more BTC back.
 
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I just converted what I had into USDT in Nicehash (about $160 CAD from about 5 days mining) and waiting till BTC goes down to about $40K if it does, then I will convert back to BTC as I should get a bit more BTC back.
I believe USDC may be a better choice in the future. It's got the same stable coin nature and you earn a small return on it to match inflation, like interest at a bank.
 
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So I would really like to know if your Trendlines could have predicted BTC falling to $3.5K last year and then rocketing to $64K this year. Could your charts have picked that up?

Also, I was Just wondering why you guys are predicting that BTC has no end value? Like saying its a "Bubble" for instance.

I would just like to say this:
I was reading something very interesting one day. It was all about a guy who said that he was trying to promote/talk about BTC at some conferences stipulating that the technology was fantastic and everybody said he was crazy. That was a few years ago now. That same guy was the same person trying to promote the Internet way back in 1995 and the same thing happened. Everybody said he was mad.

Edit: Unsure which thread this belongs in now..??

Trend lines do not tell you price targets, and I never said they did. They are there to identify a change in trend. They also tell you where within current trend the price action is, and give you a probability of a downwards move if price is at the top of the trend channel or up if it is at the bottom.

This is all they do, they don't provide price targets. You need more sophisticated techniques to find price targets, and I've said before I don't like price targets but they are popular because that is what everyone wants.

I will tell you, my 19-22K price target is based on the 5-wave impulse pattern, where wave 5 = wave 1 in price movement. I will also say, 5=1 is probably around 20% likely - but it is a lot more likely than anything else. It also just so happens, that 19-20K is the top of the 2017 BTC market, so you have a natural support line there too.

But really, all the wave 5 has to do is touch the recent low which is around 34K. Moreover, wave 5 can and often is = wave 3 in length. IF that were to happen, BTC would be sub $10000 at the bottom.

So really what you have, is a 5 wave complete somewhere between about 9K and 34K. I would say that is about 80%+ probable right now. That is a big range, you don't tell the market what to do though you let it tell you what it is doing, and trend channels help you interpret that.

This is why you need trend lines, to know when to go long, when to go short, and most importantly - when you are wrong and to minimize losses. It's that simple.
 
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Picked up some more during the dip last night.
 
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Here is the bullish case, daily chart.

The daily trend lines sit around 10-15K at the bottom and ~36k at the top.

The RSI at the bottom, 50 is the midpoint, this is an indicator of momentum. It has been below 50 for some time, but is trending up meaning less negative momentum. This is a momentum divergence. It needs to get above 50 for most of the days it is charting for the market to start going up. It is currently very near that 50 line, I think it has one more good pop down - probably hitting the purple trend line on the RSI chart - soon and then it will be solidly above 50.

So I don't think that it will hit the lower trend line on the price chart, but it can. I think it will find a lot of support around 20K.

1623520725318.png
 
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Market trend. No idea, hopefully up in a week.

Coin value, crypto value is whatever you can buy or sell it for. As anything else on this planet.

Value of stuff is for how much is someone willing to buy it.

If you make a good photo, offer it for 10k USD and someone buys it, then it had at least value of 10k. Same applies to everything.
 
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Here is the bullish case, daily chart.

I really appreciate your charts and I am trying to understand them but unfortunately for me I have not been into trading very long (if at all) but I can tell you I think it's going down as I'm seeing less and less buying power with lower highs. I suppose you could say I am short.

Are you a firm believer of the Death Cross that is vastly approaching? It doesn't seem to bode well for BTC history says.

Thanks.
 
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I really appreciate your charts and I am trying to understand them but unfortunately for me I have not been into trading very long (if at all) but I can tell you I think it's going down as I'm seeing less and less buying power with lower highs. I suppose you could say I am short.

Are you a firm believer of the Death Cross that is vastly approaching? It doesn't seem to bode well for BTC history says.

Thanks.


The crossing of the 50 and 200 DMA?

Just remember, no market moves in a straight line. BTC will rally eventually, it might even be from people who are short covering, taking profits, doesn't really matter what starts it though. A rally will create a small self-reinforcing feedback loop and people will jump in, afraid of 'missing out'.

As far as price action - yes it is in a downward trend right now but the downward momentum is waning. i.e. the buyers are slowly gaining traction. The longer it stays in this price band of 30-37K, the more likely it is to rally.

Those trend lines I drew, they don't have much life left in them. Usually the lines are hit 2, 3, or 5 times. The 1hr trend lines I drew the top has been hit 3 times and the bottom twice.
 
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Yes. Any input or is it all BS?

Thanks again.

Taken alone I think it is BS. In fact, most indicators taken alone are BS ;)

Back test it, look at the NASDAQ for example, with 50 and 200 MA on a daily chart. Price crossing the 50 and then 200DMA is actually more meaningful. But the 50 and 200 crossing in a bearish way, that has happened on an uptrend.

This is the one most people refer to - supposedly it would have saved one from the 2008 crash. But, a simple rule of selling on a >3% price drop below the 200DMA would have done that too.

There are 3 death crosses here, two of them would have incurred losses.

1623550424468.png
 
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