Your medium term projection chart...
Has the upper trendline on that channel you've drawn really developed a strong enough secondary point to call that a channel? I'm not seeing it. Second, this market has fallen to the primary breakout point from late January 2021. Seems like a normal BTTB, or back to the breakout correction and volume is drying up. If I was still trading markets, I'd be buying this area for a trade with a stop just below 30k. It's what happens at the next peak that would matter to me.
From my perspective...twin peaks around 55k and I'd be long gone. Lastly...you're using a 5 wave pattern which usually signifies that you believe were not in just a pullback...or a-b-c correction, correct? Are you using elliott wave? If you'd point out which method of analysis you're using it would be easier to follow along.
From my perspective...If we do five waves(in a retest of the lows)..we're truncating the fifth and holding 30k. Why? Because the "average complete" decline of BTC has been 48% or so from the very beginning and even in 1929, the first wave of the crash was the same percentage...expecting more than 48% seems a little...much? Perhaps a counter-trend bounce is in order?
Your longer term projection? I'm very much in agreement.
With all of that said...I am enjoying your posting of charts...please continue to do so.
In this forum, I'm trying to keep it simple. Yes, that's an Elliott Wave pattern - and it's also a Dow Theory pattern 3 legs down with 2 counter trend moves - implying that this is a large impulsive wave down and not a complete corrective, or to Dow Theory - that this is the primary trend.
However, I'm not just assuming that it is not an A-B-C corrective, I'm using some other methods mostly revolving around momentum indicators like RSI / MACD. I've read Rhea's The Dow Theory, and Prechters "The Elliott Wave Principle". I will say, I don't much care for Prechter's group. They are kind of a cult, so I take Elliott Waves with a huge grain of salt. The patterns are fractal but they are also infinite, but some patterns are more common than others and I look for those.
Having said that, the 5-wave impulse is not just an Elliott Wave. It's also part of Dow Theory. What's more, if you traded much at all, impulse waves appear all the time at all degrees of trend and they tend to have certain characteristics. The middle is the strongest part, which can be seen on momentum indicators. Finding the bottom or top of a 5 wave, is a matter of finding momentum divergences and determining how far from the 50 line they are at various time frames.
Internals of correctives - nah, I've never seen anyone who could figure those out. This is where trend channels come in.
My favorite method is very simple and one that Richard Russell put forth on thedowtheory.com That is simple trend lines, and a break of the trend lines has to be >3% of the total value of whatever it is you're looking at to be meaningful. That's for longer term investments ofc. Using their method, a BTC owner would have exited this market in Mid-April at around 55K.
If I were to use that method here, at this moment the trend line I have on daily is about 38000 so a buy signal would be at 39140, I'd call it >39200.
And you're right those trend lines may not work out, but I just comment two things. Trend lines can be redrawn when more information is available, however they provide discipline, which was really my point. Without a plan, you got nothing but feelings, and as you said in another post the market feeds on people who trade on feelings.
The other thing is, if you truly draw a trend line 'correctly' then the pattern is usually almost over. This makes them useless for many people as the trend is about to be broken the moment you can identify it 'correctly'.
You can, however, use a combination patterns and momentum indicators to identify the important price points, which is what I've tried to do here. i.e., the "3" or middle is the strongest move, and the expectation is a momentum divergence on the "5" or last wave.
Here's the current trend line chart, I added the slope divergence on RSI / MACD.
The black line is from the daily chart, the purple trend lines are from hourly Let's see if those trend lines signify something when they're broken, keeping in mind Russell's 3% rule for the daily. The lower daily channel is pretty low though