Cryptocoin Value and Market Trend Discussion

[trickson]

What happened to my Crypto?

Just look at this guy would you ever loan him a penny? Somehow this stooge and his cohorts took over 32 BILLION in money they never had to begin with OMFG!
Just goes to show you just how STUPID PEOPLE REALLY ARE!

 

[R-T-B]

What happened to my Crypto?

Just look at this guy would you ever loan him a penny? Somehow this stooge and his cohorts took over 32 BILLION in money they never had to begin with OMFG!
Just goes to show you just how STUPID PEOPLE REALLY ARE!

I mean yeah, on one hand you can argue not to judge a book by it's cover, but in most "cryptobro" cases it seems not to bad a metric so far.

That being said, there were plenty of red flags about FTX (and Mt. Gox before it) besides the owners apearance. People are indeed willfully blind in the hopes of "getting rich quick."

 

[Totally]

Time and time again, you see this incredibly wealthy, successful people going all out on something that is the biggest pile of dog shit, and i wonder how are they so successful and rich.

And sure some could trick a lot of people, but this are people that are well connected, that have research teams of specialists, and yet we have them backing charlatans, pyramid schemes, snake oil vendors, etc... and at the same time we always find out someone that isn't particularly special, not einstein level smart, not rich, don't have a team of specialists, etc.. and have called this crap out for some time.

Those questionable people even though they know what's up are getting paid enough to look the other way a not ask questions. Case in point, take a look at Interpol's most wanted man, Jho Low, if it wasn't for a whistleblower he wouldn't have made off with just 4.6 billion USD if he didn't have the countries leader and Goldman Sachs in his pocket. This FTX scandal is no different from the hundreds of crypto scams that preceded it except this one has a face, I guess that's what makes it a scandal.

 

[RandallFlagg]

This continues to get funnier, or worse, or something. I don't see how FTX can even afford to pay their new CEO\bankruptcy manager anymore. There's nothing there.

• "A particularly jarring disclosure is that the total fair value of crypto held by FTX International was just $659,000 as of the end of September, compared to claims from its founder Sam Bankman-Fried's that the company held $5.5 billion in "less liquid" crypto tokens."

A new bankruptcy filing shows the value of FTX's crypto holdings is just $659,000, after Sam Bankman-Fried said they were worth $5.5 billion

FTX's new CEO John Ray III oversaw the liquidation of Enron and said: "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls."

news.yahoo.com

 

[R-T-B]

"less liquid" is just a word for "might be worth a ton more someday. It's BS really. Especially when they themselves are tanking the value that counts on.

 

[trickson]

WOW you people just think of this for one second, Would you give this FTX money at all? and just what did anyone get from that investment? RIPPED OFF!
The guy is a THIEF nothing more than a scum bag thief!
I hope that Hell has a special hole for people like this! Sick SCUM BAG!

 

[Bomby569]

Just like the Luna dude, i think it was just a kid that lost any notion of reality. For crypto bros money is an abstract concept.

But there is a lot more older people to blame for all this, they should go down with them. They didn't even had accounting, the bankruptcy lawyer is the same of the Enron case and he said he never seen anything like it.

 

[Vario]

Here is an interview with Sam Bankman Fried from a few days ago, I don't know how anyone could read this and not get the impression he is a sociopath.

Sam Bankman-Fried tries to explain himself

The fallen crypto CEO on what went wrong, why he did what he did, and what lies he told along the way.

www.vox.com

View attachment 270486

 

[lexluthermiester]

Folks we're off-topic again. This thread is about Cryptocoin Value and Market Trends.
General discussion about Cryptocoin can be found at the link below. Please take your discussion there. Thank You.

General Cryptocoin Discussion

As many threads seem to get side-tracked with general discussion about cryptocoin, we need a thread where discussion about the subject that can meander from any one aspect as the users need it too. This is a general discussion about cryptocoin and all topics about this subject are welcome...

www.techpowerup.com

 

[R-T-B]

WOW you people just think of this for one second, Would you give this FTX money at all?

Nope, but I do more homework then their typical customer.

 

[Bomby569]

more bad news for crypto value. And lending was one of the most absurd ideas the crypto bros ever had.

Crypto lenders are suffering as bitcoin miners are unable to pay back gigantic loans

As miners fail to pay back loans, crypto lenders are stuck with a bunch of mining rigs as collateral.

www.pcgamer.com

 

[lexluthermiester]

more bad news for crypto value. And lending was one of the most absurd ideas the crypto bros ever had.

Crypto lenders are suffering as bitcoin miners are unable to pay back gigantic loans

As miners fail to pay back loans, crypto lenders are stuck with a bunch of mining rigs as collateral.

www.pcgamer.com

The values haven't changed much in the last few weeks.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The values haven't changed much in the last few weeks.

Price hasn't changed too much. But BTC difficulty has changed.

Difficulty - BTC.com

btc.com

The higher the difficulty, the more electricity (and miners) it takes to make a BTC.

EDIT: looks like December 5th was the last difficulty change, downards. So its cheaper to make BTC now. Interesting... I guess miners really are going offline?

 

[lexluthermiester]

EDIT: looks like December 5th was the last difficulty change, downards. So its cheaper to make BTC now. Interesting... I guess miners really are going offline?

That's what I'm seeing.

 

[trog100]

bitcoin thrives the rest not so much..

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

trog

 

[lexluthermiester]

bitcoin thrives the rest not so much..

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

trog

Nonsense. BTC hasn't moved significantly since the crash. That's not called "thriving". It's called holding steady. Big difference there.

 

[Chomiq]

US bank Silvergate hit with $8bn in crypto withdrawals

The bank has had to sell $5.2bn in assets to cover two-thirds of its customers withdrawing their deposits.

www.bbc.com

Ouch

 

[cvaldes]

bitcoin thrives the rest not so much..

Incorrect.

Here is a graph showing TTM of BTC (blue), the S&P 500 (red) and ETH (green).

This is a typical example of how dangerous it is to mindlessly accept random stuff posted on the Internet, in this case from a site called Zero Hedge.

Note that overall, ETH has actually kept up with BTC. In fact, ETH is far less volatile after its transition to proof-of-stake on September 6th. Other cryptotokens may not exhibit the same performance.

This is a good moment to remind thread participants that crypto isn't an island. Crypto -- especially the big tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum -- are heavily tied to the greater financial markets. Mining activities are no longer a strong influence on daily valuation for these major tokens.

Here's another chart showing TTM performance of BTC, ETH, and QLD (orange), the latter is a 2x leveraged fund tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index.

Clearly both cryptotokens follow market trends. Using a 2x or 3x leveraged fund makes the association easier to see.

As a long-term investment in January 2023, cryptotokens are poor performers.

Here's another graph of BTC (blue), ETH (green), Apple (AAPL in red), Berkshire-Hathaway Class B shares (BRK-B in light blue), and Wal-mart (WMT in purple).

Only the two non-tech bellwethers have performed well TTM. Even AAPL has underperformed the S&P 500 (see chart #1 in post 1318 above).

Cryptotokens collectively have utterly sucked as an investment instrument over the past year.

 

[RandallFlagg]

Incorrect.

Here is a graph showing TTM of BTC (blue), the S&P 500 (red) and ETH (green).


View attachment 278059

This is a typical example of how dangerous it is to mindlessly accept random stuff posted on the Internet, in this case from a site called Zero Hedge.

Note that overall, ETH has actually kept up with BTC. In fact, ETH is far less volatile after its transition to proof-of-stake on September 6th. Other cryptotokens may not exhibit the same performance.

This is a good moment to remind thread participants that crypto isn't an island. Crypto -- especially the big tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum -- are heavily tied to the greater financial markets. Mining activities are no longer a strong influence on daily valuation for these major tokens.

Here's another chart showing TTM performance of BTC, ETH, and QLD (orange), the latter is a 2x leveraged fund tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index.

View attachment 278069

Clearly both cryptotokens follow market trends. Using a 2x or 3x leveraged fund makes the association easier to see.

As a long-term investment in January 2023, cryptotokens are poor performers.

Here's another graph of BTC (blue), ETH (green), Apple (AAPL in red), Berkshire-Hathaway Class B shares (BRK-B in light blue), and Wal-mart (WMT in purple).

View attachment 278072

Only the two non-tech bellwethers have performed well TTM. Even AAPL has underperformed the S&P 500 (see chart #1 in post 1318 above).

Cryptotokens collectively have utterly sucked as an investment instrument over the past year.

Great post, some really good comparisons there.

Something I'll add, crypto and many other financial instruments (bonds and gold) are not behaving as independently of equity markets like SP500/NASDAQ as they did long ago.

I'm not going to say anyone really *knows* why, but one idea I think is valid is that it has to do with *how* they are traded today. Most who invest in bonds for example, do so buy buying a bond fund not the individual bonds. Most who invest in gold, don't buy physical gold, they buy financial instruments like GLD.

Crypto, seems to be going the same way. More and more, people don't buy Crypto they buy a financial instrument that in some way to them represents crypto.

Because of this, they get traded in much the same way as equities by investors and traders. This makes the price movement patterns on these normally disconnected instruments look very similar, in shape at least if not in magnitude.

 

[Vario]

Great post, some really good comparisons there.

Something I'll add, crypto and many other financial instruments (bonds and gold) are not behaving as independently of equity markets like SP500/NASDAQ as they did long ago.

I'm not going to say anyone really *knows* why, but one idea I think is valid is that it has to do with *how* they are traded today. Most who invest in bonds for example, do so buy buying a bond fund not the individual bonds. Most who invest in gold, don't buy physical gold, they buy financial instruments like GLD.

Crypto, seems to be going the same way. More and more, people don't buy Crypto they buy a financial instrument that in some way to them represents crypto.

Because of this, they get traded in much the same way as equities by investors and traders. This makes the price movement patterns on these normally disconnected instruments look very similar, in shape at least if not in magnitude.

Hedge funds are probably using cryptocurrency indices as some kind of zero beta hedge strategy, however the resulting trades actually might induce an increase in correlation between crypto and equities.

 

[lexluthermiester]

US bank Silvergate hit with $8bn in crypto withdrawals

The bank has had to sell $5.2bn in assets to cover two-thirds of its customers withdrawing their deposits.

www.bbc.com

Ouch

Ouch indeed!!

 

[trog100]

things are trending upwards.. bitcoin now at 17.3k with eth up as well..

trog

 

[cvaldes]

things are trending upwards.. bitcoin now at 17.3k with eth up as well..

trog

Once again, BTC showing even on an intraday basis, it's following the financial markets, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Here's a chart of today's trading hours for New York financial markets including BTC (blue), the Nasdaq Composite (green), and Invesco QQQ (gold) which tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index.

When you comment about cryptotoken price changes these days, it's really just a reflection of the Nasdaq, at least for the major cryptos like Bitcoin.

The New York markets ended up mixed with the Dow 30 and S&P 500 slightly down, the Nasdaq Composite slightly up.

The big cryptos don't do their own thing anymore. They are susceptible to the same global financial pressures as the regular equity markets.

 

[trog100]

everything is trending upwards including gold which is odd..

trog

 

[RandallFlagg]

everything is trending upwards including gold which is odd..

trog

It's really not odd.

Even bonds went up. This is just money flowing into 'the markets'.

I think this is because all of these markets, be it gold / silver / bitcoin or the QQQs or SPDRs or bonds via a bond fund, more and more they all trade more or less the same way. Some symbol on a trading screen, basically.

So when money flows 'into' markets, it flows into all of them. The only question is what the mix is - what's getting more of the flow, what's getting less. The shape and direction of flow is the same.

But the size of the move, that may vary greatly, as @cvaldes chart on post 1318 shows. A lot of this effect shows up within an index, for example when Wal-Mart and Berkshire move with the same pattern, that is well known to be a result of the use of ETFs vs individual stock trades. ETFs literally dwarf individual stock trades. I think the same thing is happening with crypto and bonds.