Maps, science, data & statistics tracking of COVID-19

[64K]

People do dumb things like last Spring Break they were all crowded together and most weren't wearing masks. The masks don't protect you from Covid. They protect other people around you if you are carrying Covid but only get a minor case of it. A lot of people in my city don't even wear a mask anymore. That's probably why the new cases went way up.




Spring Break 2021: College students return to beaches amid pandemic
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[Space Lynx]

Pfizer vaccine second dose has ‘sweet spot’ after eight weeks, UK scientists say

Longer schedule led to more Covid antibodies and higher proportion of helper T-cells, supporting immune memory – researchers

www.theguardian.com

I'm glad I waited to get my second shot at 8 weeks apart, just as I said weeks ago when France and Germany confirmed this.

I'm going to better off than those who got the shot after 3-4 weeks.

CDC makes me lulz, they probably won't even confirm this for another year cause they work so slow.

 

[Space Lynx]

People do dumb things like last Spring Break they were all crowded together and most weren't wearing masks. The masks don't protect you from Covid. They protect other people around you if you are carrying Covid but only get a minor case of it. A lot of people in my city don't even wear a mask anymore. That's probably why the new cases went way up.

N95 masks do protect you from it. Be careful with your wording lad.

 

[Vayra86]

No worries boys, in the Netherlands, we know how to make policy.

Look here. Government only needed one press conference to fuck it up so badly, we lost our Summer holidays. They figured 'oh, the first jabs have gone out, why not reopen *nightclubs and bars* again, matter of fact, while we're at it, let's just open everything! Including party-inducing statements from several members of gov. alongside it. Oh yeah, they did mention to us 'but keep social distancing'"

This only took two days:

If Germany didn't have such shitty water management I'd emigrate. Fucking hell.

 

[64K]

That 6 foot social distancing is a myth. I read where a sneeze can cause droplets to go as far as 27 feet depending on conditions. Once someone sneezes around you you can't outrun the droplets. If you get part of the sneeze cloud of droplets in your eyes you can be infected.

 

[dragontamer5788]

That 6 foot social distancing is a myth. I read where a sneeze can cause droplets to go as far as 27 feet depending on conditions. Once someone sneezes around you you can't outrun the droplets. If you get part of the sneeze cloud of droplets in your eyes you can be infected.

I'd estimate that ever since the 6-foot policy was implemented, people were spaced about twice apart. So lines are 2x longer than before. Which means that if someone coughed up COVID19, they'd infect 1/2 the number of people rather than the original. (ex: If a sneeze really travels 27 feet: you'd infect maybe 9 people under normal conditions, but only 4 people under a 6-foot policy).

The 6-foot or 2-meter distance is just completely arbitrary. The important thing is to just keep people separated, so that any particular cough and/or sneeze infects 1/2 the number of people it would have before. Now 1/2 is not good enough: COVID19 originally had R0 of 3 (and Delta is even higher), but cutting down the spread in any way possible is helpful.

There was a rather nasty "choir" case early in 2020 where everyone was standing close together. A single person had COVID19 (likely asymptomatic / presymptomatic) and then 100+ people got infected because the choir practice had everyone so packed closely together. Slowing these kinds of "superspreader" events by having a 6-foot policy isn't about preventing the spread entirely, its about cutting the "100 people infected" number down to 50, 25, or smaller.

 

[Vayra86]

That 6 foot social distancing is a myth. I read where a sneeze can cause droplets to go as far as 27 feet depending on conditions. Once someone sneezes around you you can't outrun the droplets. If you get part of the sneeze cloud of droplets in your eyes you can be infected.

The exact cause of that peak I posted there is because people cuddled up in clubs again for one or two nights.

The whole R-number is based on a game of chance. 6 foot distancing is one of the bigger influences on that number.

 

[HTC]

The last time Portugal had double-digit daily fatalities was back in April 1st, i believe. That is, until 2 days ago when we had 13 ... and 16 both yesterday AND today ...

We've been having 3K new daily cases for some time and, though our hospitalized is a fraction of what it was the last time we had such numbers of new daily cases, it STILL requires hospitals to re-shuffle their available beds in order to accommodate so many people.

The R number is dropping but not fast enough because our case numbers per 100K people are still climbing.

 

[dragontamer5788]

The last time Portugal had double-digit daily fatalities was back in April 1st, i believe. That is, until 2 days ago when we had 13 ... and 16 both yesterday AND today ...

We've been having 3K new daily cases for some time and, though our hospitalized is a fraction of what it was the last time we had such numbers of new daily cases, it STILL requires hospitals to re-shuffle their available beds in order to accommodate so many people.

The R number is dropping but not fast enough because our case numbers per 100K people are still climbing.

That R-number suddenly increasing by 50%ish because of the Delta variant isn't helping at all :-(

 

[Space Lynx]

That R-number suddenly increasing by 50%ish because of the Delta variant isn't helping at all :-(

i think you are worrying to much still. similar to UK cases may be skyrocketing, but hospital and deaths are not. small increase sure, but its very very small, and only people who refused vaccine.

 

[dragontamer5788]

and only people who refused vaccine.

I happen to know a lot of those people.

 

[Space Lynx]

I happen to know a lot of those people.

i learned a long time ago you have to stop caring about people that aren't willing to care for themselves. i tried getting my mom to go to doctor for ten years, several fights, yelling matches, and so forth. eventually you got to give up and move on with your life though.

 

[64K]

I have a family member that refuses to get vaccinated because she believes it's a Government Conspiracy but then she's also convinced that the Moon Landing was faked by the Government.

 

[Space Lynx]

I have a family member that refuses to get vaccinated because she believes it's a Government Conspiracy but then she's also convinced that the Moon Landing was faked by the Government.

I don't think the moon landing was faked, but I do admit, I find it odd these computers that could barely calculate anything (compared to today) were able to go to the moon several times... and yet today we can barely service the space station, even though the computers have increased a thousand thousand fold in compute power...

 

[the54thvoid]

I don't think the moon landing was faked, but I do admit, I find it odd these computers that could barely calculate anything (compared to today) were able to go to the moon several times... and yet today we can barely service the space station, even though the computers have increased a thousand thousand fold in compute power...

Not true. Computers and human ingenuity are capable of great things. The Germans created the rocket technology in the 40's. The US gave some Nazi dudes (Braun) space to work for them. The rest is maths. And some very clever Americans did some very good maths.

I mean c'mon, they had already built computers.

 

[Space Lynx]

Not true. Computers and human ingenuity are capable of great things. The Germans created the rocket technology in the 40's. The US gave some Nazi dudes (Braun) space to work for them. The rest is maths. And some very clever Americans did some very good maths.

I mean c'mon, they had already built computers.

then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.

 

[dragontamer5788]

then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.

The space race was mostly about demonstrating ICBM capabilities: that we can send a rocket (with a nuclear weapon) anywhere on Earth. That's what Sputnik represented. The USA then went to the moon to prove dominance in space (sure, we reached space 2nd, but reached the moon 1st), so we proved that we were "better" at space launches and therefore our ICBMs were also to be feared.

We're still the dominant player in ICBM nuclear games. So what would going to the moon prove? There's no point. Maybe China, Iran, or North Korea want to go to the moon, to prove that their missiles are that good. But the USA has no real purpose going there again. Russia never needed to go to the Moon, because they were the first to launch Sputnik and prove the capabilities of ICBMs first.

 

[64K]

then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.

From what I've read the technology that took us to the moon is obsolete and mostly forgotten now. We would have to start all over and it would be expensive.

 

[the54thvoid]

then why is it so hard to go back to the moon with all the advancements we have now... just seems odd.

It's not hard. It's really, really, expensive.

 

[dragontamer5788]

From what I've read the technology that took us to the moon is obsolete and mostly forgotten now. We would have to start all over and it would be expensive.

I'm pretty sure modding Kerbel Space Program is more accurate and easier to program than messing with old Fortran punch cards. Seriously, no joke. KSP has an accurate Newtonian Physics model of near space (within the solar system).

And that's a video game. NASA's systems are accurate enough to land Rosetta (purple line) on a Comet (green line).

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Animation_of_Rosetta_trajectory.gif

The blue-line is Earth, the red-line is Mars. IIRC, the path required multiple gravity-assists off of both Earth and Mars to successfully reach the speed that Green (the comet) was traveling at. We're really, really, really good at this.

 

[R-T-B]

I'm pretty sure modding Kerbel Space Program is more accurate and easier to program than messing with old Fortran punch cards. Seriously, no joke. KSP has an accurate Newtonian Physics model of near space (within the solar system).

And that's a video game. NASA's systems are accurate enough to land Rosetta (purple line) on a Comet (green line).

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bd/Animation_of_Rosetta_trajectory.gif

View attachment 209525

KSP doesn't solve the n-body problem, which actually makes it massively limited in the real world, though there are mods for it that do (Principia). Those mods are surprisingly accurate. I play with it and it's damn hard.

NASA contracts with KSP on occasion for educational outreach. It's a very cool game. I actually maintain a major mod for it (Kopernicus) and have actually interacted with some very cool people, some of them involved in NASA via my work with it.

 

[dragontamer5788]

KSP doesn't solve the n-body problem, which actually makes it massively limited in the real world, though there are mods for it that do (Principia). Those mods are surprisingly accurate. I play with it and it's damn hard.

Traveling to the moon doesn't require solving the n-body problem though. At least, I don't think it does. Its just Earth + Moon, so 2-body at the most.

 

[R-T-B]

From what I've read the technology that took us to the moon is obsolete and mostly forgotten now. We would have to start all over and it would be expensive.

It's not so much that the tech is gone as is the willingness to spend that kind of money and human cost on such an endeavor.

Traveling to the moon doesn't require solving the n-body problem though. At least, I don't think it does. Its just Earth + Moon, so 2-body at the most.

You'd be surprised how wrong you'd be. Even a far away bodies influence like Jupiter can alter the orbit just enough to screw you up all that way from here if you need to hit x crater, or some other precise target.

If you're ok with just "hit the moon" you are probably fine.

Also everything in Kerbal is scaled down to be 10x smaller. This is an obvious issue, and my mod framework is actually able to address it. I play at real size, as such. It's friggin hard.

Traveling to the moon doesn't require solving the n-body problem though. At least, I don't think it does. Its just Earth + Moon, so 2-body at the most.

KSP doesn't even do 2-body. It's done as spehere's of influence 1-body problem, with obvious limitations when the Earth/Kerbin or Moon/Mun just suddenly stops tugging on you.

 

[the54thvoid]

Hey folks. This is the science Covid thread. Space things go elsewhere. I know I contributed but it's getting silly. Please, back on topic.

 

[R-T-B]

Hey folks. This is the science Covid thread. Space things go elsewhere. I know I contributed but it's getting silly. Please, back on topic.

Sorry. Somehow I just assumed this was a space thread. There were colorful orbits above my post.