RDNA4 Prediction Time Part Deux!!!

[alwayssts]

While we have no clear information about rdna4, what we know from the die data is that the 5070 will be awful compared to its TI variant, performing below the 4070 super, while the 9070 will follow the Rx570 , 5700 non XT and 6800 non XT fate of being a much more cost and power efficient variant for only 10% less performance on average, with a 16gb framebuffer for longevity. The only thing nvidia can do and seem to be doing about that is to rethink that card or make sure it's so widely avaiable that they can make margins on quantity and keep it close to msrp. Their strategy is having the poor buy a very shitty card with either no performance or too little vram to make sure they will have to spend again earlier.

We do (know it will perform <4070 super)? It was likely planned to be pretty close, but they may buff it up at stock (or discount it) depending upon how 9070 is received (and where AMD prices it), I think.

The thing has bandwidth for days, and likely will clock pretty high. Extra bandwidth (that isn't 'needed' per se') doesn't add a *ton* of performance, but it does add some...especially to averages (not mins).
Again, absolute (overclocking) performance I expect to be *similar* to a 4070ti's, at stock close to a 4070 super (perhaps slightly less, because again they want parts with more SPs to retain value).
At stock, yes, slower-ish maybe/sometimes...but who knows to what degree depending on if they change stock clock and/or try to sell it through models with higher clock than reference (which W1zard often reviews).

Also, yeah...if there's one card nVIDIA will sell on volume (not margin), it will be that. How, when it has <45TF/12GB and it can be pretty clearly shown as a limitation (especially with DLSS4), I don't know.

They will try, though. Likely through recommending reviewers use up-scaling (960p->1440p and 1080p->4k). I think that's bullshit, but also people can make up their own minds.

At least they improved DLSS4 image quality so up-scaling to that degree (1080p->4k) doesn't look as pitiful as before.
Surely some publications, you know the ones and we don't need to say them, will compare DLSS/FSR4 upscaling quality at 1080p->4k and may try to sell nVIDIA parts on that.
The buffer and compute performance still just ain't enough for even the remote-soon future, and was a really bad call on nVIDIA's part to sell at this premium/level.
Maybe they will revamp it with 18GB/higher stock clock...but no matter what it's compute ability is going to be a limiting factor; it'll age like 4070ti did (not well), just in a different way to a different market.
Similar is true for 7800xt/9070, but at least those cheap/16GB and may become (for similar performance) even cheaper. While FSR3 is 'ok', FSR4 may be good-enough on 9070 to be worth celebrating.
There's no way they can excuse even $550 this time for 12GB though, just as they couldn't the $800 (or attempted $900) before. I think they know that, and it truly is an 'up-sell'.

I'll explain it to you simply:

People that have common sense know the 5070 is not a very fast card with enough ram, so the '5070 is a 4090' becomes an obvious marketing ploy. He wants those people to buy 5070ti etc.
People that are more normies and/or less-informed on the subject WILL be sold on that nonsense, unfortunately.

So that's what they do...and the "5070 is a 4090...with the power of AI" upscaling/FG bullshit will be what sells cards one way or another...but it truly is nonsense. Even if you're sold on it, it just won't hold up.
There is a minimum level of pure hardware grunt/buffer for at least decent gaming long-term, and that ain't it, in either respect. At least (7800xt and) 9070 has 16GB for native rez gameplay, and is cheaper.

EVERYTHING nVIDIA does is about having to buy cards more-often. It just depends in which area you prioritize, and which segment. If you want it to last, you need to buy a whole segment above what you need.

I'm hoping 9070xt will hold up okay to the next gen, if only slightly-compromised in some situations. I think it will (purposely) be right on the edge.
If there's a faster card, less-compromised, but still potentially <60TF and 16GB become a limitation for some users, where 3nm >60TF/18GB will have noticeable advantages (and these current cards replaced by 128-bit 16GB cards on the low-end). I think nVIDIA will make this exact same (6144sp) config on 128-bit with 16GB of ram and just make sure it has over 45TF at stock, which is for all intents and purposes would then be similar to what 9070xt is...and that's LOW-END. That's how important those barriers are, and why 4070ti/7800xt/5070/9070 don't and likely won't pass them in different respects. It is truly that small of a difference that changes the market segment and/or can 'outdate' cards from what people want them to do.

 

[Bomby569]

EVERYTHING nVIDIA does is about having to buy cards more-often. It just depends in which area you prioritize, and which segment. If you want it to last, you need to buy a whole segment above what you need.

i don't think that's necessary, just wait for the super versions.
But i do agree with you nvidia is doing this on purpose so they can sell more cards. Seemed more reasonable to me to release for example the 4060 16gb and only later release the 4060 8gb for the cheap crowd, not the other way around.

 

[Scattergrunt]

I'm expecting the 9070XT to be somewhere right between the 5070 and 5070Ti, the 9070 to be just matching the 4070Ti or surpassing it slightly. 9060 and 9060XT.. not sure.

As for price, I expect they're doing at least a decently higher undercut under NVIDIA than they normally do. Not Polaris levels of value but still more value than AMD usually offers, instead of doing a tiny undercut and then dropping price further as they were doing before.

I think they will certainly have more stock available than NVIDIA, especially considering they already had a launch ready for January but backpedaled to March. Don't expect it to be much better than NVIDIA"s paper launch but hopefully okay enough. Of course, demand is a big part of that too, and the demand of the 90xx AMD cards will depend on whether or not they're actually worth their price to performance, which is what they're hyping. If they REALLY are, I can expect that stock to dissipate fast.

 

[dj-electric]

What do i get if i predict accurately? any prizes for the winners?

 

[Daven]

What do i get if i predict accurately? any prizes for the winners?

You get the love and adoration of your peers.

 

[Scattergrunt]

You get the love and adoration of your peers.

And maybe a grill cheese if I feel like making one for him. /j

Msrp are just fake news in 2025.
They could say $299 it wouldn't mean shite.
So until I see in store pricing idgaf what they announce as the msrp on the 28th if they even announce a price.

Yea, street price and store price is whats actually out there anyway, I'm hoping the AIB's don't rugpull people again by making their cards cost a ton more (but I wouldn't be surprised if they did, especially cause there's no reference models for the RX 90xx series iirc)