Thursday, November 15th 2012

PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst

Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Barclays, slashed his already grim outlook for PC sales, and cautioned that demand for PCs could drop for "years to come." In his report, Reitzes writes "We are lowering our 2012-2016 PC forecasts due to weak macro conditions, confusion around Windows 8, ongoing cannibalization from tablets, and an elongation in replacement cycles," adding "Also, a long-running belief by PC leaders is that emerging markets are destined to reach the 100% PC-penetration rate (per person) that exists today in the U.S., however, we believe that key markets may only reach a fraction of the U.S. penetration rate as consumers now realize a balance between tablets and smart phones – at a far earlier stage in development."

A major factor in declining PC sales could be slow PC replacement rate, "with analysis pointing toward a 1-2 year extension in the replacement rate from 2010-2015 due to income diverted to 'disruptive' mobile products like tablets and smart phones across the globe." Among the companies whose price targets and estimates Reitzes cut are HP and Dell.Source: Forbes
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58 Comments on PC Industry Stares Faces Years Long Recession: Analyst

#1
ensabrenoir
nnnaaaahhhhh,,,,,,

As soon as the pc market is about to breathe its last, Apple will release a revolutionary large and non mobile device called an ibox. It will achieve sales beyond your imagination. Every home will have an ibox i tell you.... everyone....
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#2
SaltyFish
by: Chevalr1c
If I built this desktop of mine from scratch now, I had also been choosing for a form factor of mATX or less. Times are changing. The desktop won't die (there will be a time during which saving on the battery will be an important economic factor) but they will get smaller. A lot smaller.
Yay for technological convergence?
We need something like this back again...

Posted on Reply
#3
Super XP
Long Live the Gaming Desktop :toast:
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#4
alucasa
Well, yeah, I am starting to think that I am not gonna build my next home PC in 1 or 2 years. I feel like I am just going to buy a semi-powerful 17inch laptop to replace it and just rely on consoles for gaming. I already have a pretty good gaming laptop and it's actually adequate enough.
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#5
The Jedi
I like the lines of thinking about smart TVs becoming more popular. I think you still have to have an OS behind the TV with a usable web browser. In that regard Google with Chrome and the Google TV Android based OS is in the lead, although I guess any company can make their own WebKit browser.

M$ was poised to be lead a while back with smart TVs with built-in Media Center Extenders from Acer and HP, but they gave up and pulled out of the market. I think MS had plans with like a Windows 7 Embedded powered TV platform. This was referred as codename Pika. I think they were going to go with the Media Center ecosystem which had their own apps system. They didn't have a ton of apps and MS didn't really take charge, but now with Metro they're coming out and taking charge of this new alternative app system. And now they're putting IE 10 on the Xbox, so that's their new play.

Technology has to be powerful but with some level of simplicity. I think there is still a market for a high-quality powerful PC, and if your Dells and HPs aren't willing to sell a tower PC at retail with a good GPU, good memory, and an SSD, people can look to other companies on the Internet. And also in that regard buying a PC at retail may become unfashionable, or something like what your parents might do since they don't appreciate a good PC. My argument is that as younger people in general become more tech savvy, more people will appreciate actually spending for good PCs. They'll value paying for good gear that does things better. I think also as technologically literate people get older and busy with family life, they may skip the effort to figure out what parts to buy and how to build the latest socket 3000 PC, and just buy a good custom built PC from someplace online.

I'm pleased that I have a dual-core smartphone with Android 4.0, but I find myself tending not to look up stuff on my phone because I get such a better experience with more capability going to the site on my PC. With a browser like Firefox or Chrome I can bookmark something with my phone and then later visit the site on my PC. I think like netbooks, tablets are a lot of hype, and they just aren't as good.
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#6
nt300
by: alucasa
Well, yeah, I am starting to think that I am not gonna build my next home PC in 1 or 2 years. I feel like I am just going to buy a semi-powerful 17inch laptop to replace it and just rely on consoles for gaming. I already have a pretty good gaming laptop and it's actually adequate enough.
If you dont care bout graphics than you dont need a PC for gaming, but if you do care then build yourself a PC for gaming. Laptops may mimic desktops, they will never have ability to replace because desktops can be upgraded over and over again for years to come.
by: The Jedi
I think like netbooks, tablets are a lot of hype, and they just aren't as good.
The only thing I like about tablets is the convenience and speed I have to check internet and e-mail. Much faster than powering up my desktop, but that is about it. Desktops are supreme imo.
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#7
mediasorcerer
For a market that's supposed to be going the way of the dinosaur, sure is a lot of new products coming out lately, if it's so grim, why am i seeing more products in online stores than ever before??

Weve been hearing this for years, not happeninig, i'm sure some corporations wish it was, but, nah, anyone who needs to do real work, needs a lappy or desktop.

Wait till less tech savvy folks realise tablets are a hamstrung experience.
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#8
alucasa
by: nt300
If you dont care bout graphics than you dont need a PC for gaming, but if you do care then build yourself a PC for gaming. Laptops may mimic desktops, they will never have ability to replace because desktops can be upgraded over and over again for years to come.
It's more like I don't have a choice. Most of games I see for PC are FPS lately. I want RPGs.
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