Tuesday, August 28th 2018

AMD Chip Manufacturing to Lay Solely With TSMC On, After 7 nm - And Why It's not a Decision, but a Necessity

It's been a tumultuous few days for AMD, as the company has seen Jim Anderson, Computing and Graphics Group leader after the departure of Raja Koduri, leave the company, at a time of soaring share value for the company (hitting $25.26 and leaving short positions well, short, by $2.67 billion.) However, there's one particular piece of news that is most relevant for the company: Globalfoundries' announcement to stop all ongoing development on the 7 nm node.

This is particularly important for a variety of reasons. The most important one is this: Globalfoundries' inability to execute on the 7 nm node leaves AMD fully free to procure chips and technology from competing foundries. If you remember, AMD's spin-off of GlobalFoundries left the former with the short end of the stick, having to cater to GlobalFoundries' special pricing, and paying for the privilege of accessing other foundries' inventories. Of course, the Wafer Supply Agreement (WSA) that is in place will have to be amended - again - but the fact is this: AMD wants 7 nm products, and GlobalFoundries can't provide.
To the forumites: this piece is marked as an editorial

AMD's CTO Mark Papermaster wrote thus in a blog post:
AMD's next major milestone is the introduction of our upcoming 7nm product portfolio, including the initial products with our second generation "Zen 2" CPU core and our new "Navi" GPU architecture. We have already taped out multiple 7nm products at TSMC, including our first 7nm GPU planned to launch later this year and our first 7nm server CPU that we plan to launch in 2019. Our work with TSMC on their 7nm node has gone very well and we have seen excellent results from early silicon. To streamline our development and align our investments closely with each of our foundry partner's investments, today we are announcing we intend to focus the breadth of our 7nm product portfolio on TSMC's industry-leading 7nm process.
The thing is, AMD going solely with TSMC for 7 nm isn't a decision: it's a necessity. It's a necessity of increasing need for AMD to bank on its powerful forward momentum against Intel on the CPU wars. It's essential for AMD's continued push in the professional, server field. And it's of utmost importance for AMD's relevance in graphics technologies against NVIDIA's frankly dominating position (despite AMD controlling all high-performance games consoles, a strategy that will only increase its fruits for AMD, should they be able to maintain this exclusivity - and all points towards that). Zen 2, EPYC 2, Vega 20, Navi - those are not only sizeable pieces of AMD's product portfolio, these are its bread and butter.
As great as that part of the deal is for AMD, there's an obvious drawback of yet another foundry being left in the dust of new node developments: the weight of the world's semiconductor manufacturing capability on the 7 nm node - and AMD's efforts in it - stand solely on the shoulders of one player. And that's not even looking into actual output for TSMC's 7 nm node, how many customers will want to manufacture their chips on it, and whether or not TSMC has the ability to satisfy demand from all players.

Should anything befall TSMC, should the silicon giant trip, AMD will have all of its product portfolio endangered. Consumer and professional GPU and CPU products will all be manufactured under TSMC's 7 nm process, as AMD has stated time and again - and in quite an aggressive manner. Here's hoping other players step up to the 7 nm manufacturing task, or, that being as hard as it is, that nothing affects TSMC's ability to deliver, lest one giant brings down others with it.
Sources: AMD Blogs, via TechSpot
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87 Comments on AMD Chip Manufacturing to Lay Solely With TSMC On, After 7 nm - And Why It's not a Decision, but a Necessity

#26
TheoneandonlyMrK
Samsung are the biggest chip maker now,, yet no one's mentioned them, they have 7nm parts out in memory ASICS at least with tape outs of others and they have worked with Amd before.
It's not that big an issue.

Also Gf were partnered with ibm afaik on gate all around at 5nm, something euv would make more doable, they made no announcement regarding it, I would not count GF out yet they may plan to leapfrog the 7nm node and it's tortuous introduction to Euv until a more stable manufacturing plant is available.
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#27
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
Samsung's biggest chip has how many transistors? 1 billion? AMD/Intel/NVIDIA need in the 10s of billions.
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#29
Assimilator
FordGT90ConceptSamsung's biggest chip has how many transistors? 1 billion? AMD/Intel/NVIDIA need in the 10s of billions.
GP107 / GTX 1050 is 3.3 billion transistors, and it doesn't seem like NVIDIA has had any issues with those chips. I'm sure AMD and Samsung have talked before, and now that GloFo has thrown in the towel there will be more than talking going on.

Ultimately the winner here is Intel. GloFo bowing out of the Nanometer Wars means that the pressure on the remaining fabricators just eased massively, and Intel's the one feeling that crunch the most with their 10nm woes. The chase after Moore's Law is going to slow down out of necessity as there just isn't enough supply from the smaller and newer nodes, and I'm betting that we're going to see some interesting tweaks of 12nm, 14nm and maybe even 16nm to compensate for that... and if there's one thing Intel has got right, it's iterating that bloody 14nm++++++++++ process of theirs.

We can only hope that, perhaps, this breathing room will lead to stakeholders having time for another look at silicon alternatives.
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#30
notb
FordGT90ConceptLOLNOPE. Foundries are too much risk. That's why that rumor not long ago surfaced of Intel going fabless too. To shrink processes further requires crazy amounts of R&D. It's getting to a point where for profit corporations are struggling to justify the cost. AMD sold GloFo back when foundries were a less risky venture. Now it's severe risk.
This theory is maybe true for an elastic market with many suppliers. It isn't true here.
As @Raevenlord mentioned in his yet another AMD fan letter, GloFo had a deal with AMD. This meant AMD had limited choices, but also that they actually had a Fab available.

I think we agree that at this point AMD's future depends on delivering a product on 7nm. However, at TSMC they'll have to compete with Nvidia, who has higher margins and is likely a more attractive partner.
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#31
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
With no more GloFo, AMD will be TSMC's #1 customer. Guesstimates for 2014 (28nm GPUs and console APUs if memory serves):

Can't find newer data but it's going to be out of date the moment AMD starts bulk ordering CPUs.
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#32
Zubasa
FordGT90ConceptWith no more GloFo, AMD will be TSMC's #1 customer. Guesstimates for 2015:
Also CPUs dies are significantly smaller than most GPUs these days, so much higher yields especially on new nodes.
So the same wafer can provide much higher volume of chips on Zen2 dies compare to nVidia GPUs.
I am pretty sure both TSMC and AMD would benefit from higher yields.
And also the fact that how Zen is designed, these dies can be used to make EPYC and Threadripper, while all GPUs right now are monolithic thus high end parts would suffer on yields.
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#34
Zubasa
FordGT90Concept32-core Epyc has 19 billion transistors, more than GT102, and AMD sells them by the pallet to power data centers and super computers.
And the most ingenious part of that is it is split across 4-dies, highly beneficial on new nodes for yield.
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#35
R-T-B
IceShroomMaybe it is time for AMD to buy back it foundary form GlobalFoundaries.
StrayKATMaybe they'll bring back jobs to the US (or my locale specifically.. Texas). :\
I mean if these two things happened, I'm pretty sure you'd have an empty warehouse in texas full of homeless people within 1 year. Sorry guys, pipedream.
StrayKATHow could so much change within a decade? It's very strange. I think the economic crisis/2008 warped people's thinking a bit.
More like as you get smaller, science works against you. Because of Moore's law, it did not take long.
JossLies, we're surrounded by lies and useful idiots that propagate them.
I mean, without a design you ain't got much.
Posted on Reply
#36
StrayKAT
R-T-BI mean if these two things happened, I'm pretty sure you'd have an empty warehouse in texas full of homeless people within 1 year. Sorry guys, pipedream..
This is better compared to the tech wasteland created when they left? Austin is known for jack shit now.. except broken MMOs.
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#37
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
ZubasaAnd the most ingenious part of that is it is split across 4-dies, highly beneficial on new nodes for yield.
Navi was supposed to do the same for GPUs but that plan apparently got scratched.
Posted on Reply
#38
R-T-B
StrayKATAs opposed to tech wasteland it created? Austin is known for jack shit now.. except broken MMOs.
Fallen Earth? :p

Sorry I always think of that when I hear the word "wasteland" and "broken MMO" in the same sentence.

But it's irrelevant. The point stands. That type of job? It's gone, and buying a dying fab won't bring it back (if anything can).
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#39
StrayKAT
R-T-BFallen Earth? :p

Sorry I always think of that when I hear the word "wasteland" and "broken MMO" in the same sentence.

But it's irrelevant. The point stands. It's gone, and buying a dying fab won't bring it back (if anything can).
Companies leave because of crisis and taxes. Both of these are things of the past for the time being.

Of course, now they've become addicted to the Crack that is Asian slave labor (much like other US companies), perhaps you're right.
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#40
R-T-B
I believe that I am, but so does everyone, so who knows? I just don't bet on America out-sweatshopping Asia.
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#41
AlwaysHope
Looking forward to Navi, my next gpu upgrade.
Give Nvidia & Intel.... THE SMACK DOWN! :nutkick:

On another note but related, what happens after 7nm fab? my guess is probably one more shrink then it's.... hello, quantum computers!
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#42
StrayKAT
R-T-BI believe that I am, but so does everyone, so who knows? I just don't bet on America out-sweatshopping Asia.
America's population definitely wouldn't stand for it.. we already had a war over roughly the same thing (cheap and/or free labor).

This personality type never truly went away though. We still had to introduce better labor laws over the years. I think we only had a few decades of a truly happy working force (in certain industries) during the 20th century... until these same personality types tasted the forbidden fruit of slavery again overseas. Not sure what would stop them once they have tasted. It's like a mad dog that has to be put down. At best, you have to bribe them with these low tax laws (and even that may not be a big enough carrot. Here's hoping). If it was easy to get them to all line up (like the Civil War), then you wouldn't have to do that. "We don't negotiate with terrorists!"
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#43
AlwaysHope
StrayKATAmerica's population definitely wouldn't stand for it.. we already had a war over roughly the same thing (cheap and/or free labor).

This personality type never truly went away though. We still had to introduce better labor laws over the years. I think we only had a few decades of a truly happy working force (in certain industries) during the 20th century... until these same personality types tasted the forbidden fruit of slavery again overseas. Not sure what would stop them once they have tasted. It's like a mad dog that has to be put down. At best, you have to bribe them with these low tax laws (and even that may not be a big enough carrot. Here's hoping). If it was easy to get them to all line up (like the Civil War), then you wouldn't have to do that. "We don't negotiate with terrorists!"
Presuming labor is human, what about the development of bots? In accelerated R&D as I type this...
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#44
StrayKAT
AlwaysHopePresuming labor is human, what about the development of bots? In accelerated R&D as I type this...
If by regular bots (not AI), I guess we'll have to cope with being obsolete or jobs for only the highly specialized. This is probably the only way I'd support Communism. lol. What else are people going to do?
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#45
TheGuruStud
StrayKATIf by regular bots (not AI), I guess we'll have to cope with being obsolete or jobs for only the highly specialized. This is probably the only way I'd support Communism. lol. What else are people going to do?
Quit breeding and enforce eugenics worldwide like a sane society would. But humans are trash.
Posted on Reply
#46
StrayKAT
TheGuruStudQuit breeding and enforce eugenics worldwide like a sane society would. But humans are trash.
I'm not very social, but I still love people. The idea of them anyway. :love:
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#47
Assimilator
TheGuruStudQuit breeding and enforce eugenics worldwide like a sane society would. But humans are trash.
Easy there, Goebbels.
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#48
R-T-B
AssimilatorEasy there, Goebbels.
Yeah, I was gonna say...
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#49
TheGuruStud
R-T-BYeah, I was gonna say...
No room for SJWs. The stupid have to go.

Do you know who the only reliable/competent people are in my life are? Fast food workers and delivery drivers. Do you know what that means? Anything that requires more intelligence is impossible to achieve among that vast majority of the population. Idiots have bred us down to Idiocracy levels already. I literally have to do everything myself or I get screwed on time, money or both. Before long I'll have to purchase larger and larger machines to fabricate everything.

You would assume there's at least one field I could rely on like medical, right? Nope. I have to diagnose my family, too, because even after a year of specialists and testing they can't figure out what I can in 15 mins of googling. People are worthless. Fix everyone unless they can prove their worth to breed.
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#50
R0H1T
FordGT90Concept32-core Threadripper has 19.2 billion transistors, more than GT102 (18.9 billion), and a 64-core EPYC is coming which is sold by the pallet to power datacenters and super computers.
I didn't realize next gen EPYC is gonna be even more EPIC, I might be wrong but the singular chiplet(?) could feature 45~50 billion transistors in a single package, assuming AMD do more with Zen2 than they did with Zen+ & it'll dwarf other monolithic monstrosities from IBM & Oracle.
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