Friday, December 4th 2020
1 Hour Power Outage at Micron Manufacturing Plant Could Mean Increased DRAM Prices Throughout 2021
Semiconductor manufacturing is a risky business. Not only is it heavily capital-intensive, which means that even some state-backed would-be players can fail in pooling together the required resources for an industry break-in; but the entire nature of the manufacturing process is a delicate balance of materials, nearly-endless fabrication, cleanup, and QA testing. Wafer manufacturing can take months between the initial fabrication stages through to the final packaging process; and this means that power outages or material contamination can jeopardize an outrageous number of in-fabrication semiconductors.
Recent news as covered by DigiTimes place one of Micron's fabrication plants in Taiwan as being hit with a 1-hour long power outage, which can potentially affect 10% of the entire predictable DRAM supply for the coming months (a power outage affects every step of the manufacturing process). Considering the increased demand for DRAM components due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated demand for DRAM-inside products such as PCs, DIY DRAM, laptops, and tablets, industry players are now expecting a price hike for DRAM throughout 2021 until this sudden supply constraint is dealt with. As we know, DRAM manufacturers and resellers are a fickle bunch when it comes to increasing prices in even the slightest, dream-like hint of reduced supply. It remains to be seen how much of this 10% DRAM supply is actually salvageable, but projecting from past experience, a price hike seems to be all but guaranteed.
Sources:
DigiTimes, via reddit
Recent news as covered by DigiTimes place one of Micron's fabrication plants in Taiwan as being hit with a 1-hour long power outage, which can potentially affect 10% of the entire predictable DRAM supply for the coming months (a power outage affects every step of the manufacturing process). Considering the increased demand for DRAM components due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated demand for DRAM-inside products such as PCs, DIY DRAM, laptops, and tablets, industry players are now expecting a price hike for DRAM throughout 2021 until this sudden supply constraint is dealt with. As we know, DRAM manufacturers and resellers are a fickle bunch when it comes to increasing prices in even the slightest, dream-like hint of reduced supply. It remains to be seen how much of this 10% DRAM supply is actually salvageable, but projecting from past experience, a price hike seems to be all but guaranteed.
86 Comments on 1 Hour Power Outage at Micron Manufacturing Plant Could Mean Increased DRAM Prices Throughout 2021
Micro sux anyway
Samsung a-die is going to be wicked :-)
It doesn't really matter in the end, I have my eyes set on Ampere, but I'm not paying a cent over MSRP. And I can wait till that happens, since clearly a Christmas gift is out of the question.
There's 8760 hours in a year so.... I guess we could expect 0.0114% cost increase?
Explains the price raise really.
That said, Samsung B-die is the way to go anyways.
But for an unexpected utility power outage, you usually have a few minutes of battery power, in which the generators should be able to start and take the load. If they don't start, or they start but there is some kind of problem switching to them, it's over. Of course, they should be tested properly regularly, be of good quality depending on the risk, but even then there is a risk something will fail when the time comes.
Of course, in the end it's a matter of costs. With more money you can have a more reliable system. I'm sure they had something, but clearly it was not enough, or there was human error involved. Or both.
That's one way to increase demand for your product.
Capitalism can waste labor just as well as communism.
I feel like the government should just tell them "no too bad, so sad, eat the cost."
The problem with backup plans is that backup plans are rarely tested. It could be as simple as "backup generator's gasoline went busted" or "not enough oil to start the engine", and bam, you have actual downtime.
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Or if its a battery-backup system, then "batteries couldn't hold a charge as long as expected", or similar effect that you won't figure out until you actually experience a mains outage. An aged battery will have a lower amperage for output, and that alone can cause an outage and/or issues. (Ex: you get 110V @ 50Hz instead of @60, so you have 18% less power than expected).