Monday, November 14th 2022
Zen 4 X3D Limited to 8-Core and 6-Core, No Meteor Lake in 2023: Frosty Year Expected for CPU Market
A reliable source with CPU and platform leaks, ECSM_Official, made some new predictions about release timelines of upcoming desktop processors, and how 2023 could play out for Intel and AMD. 2022 is done, with no new desktop processor SKUs expected to launch from either brands. Intel is expected to flesh out its 13th Gen Core "Raptor Lake" desktop processor family in Q1 2023, with the addition of "locked" non-K SKUs spanning all four brand extensions (i3/i5/i7/i9). Besides these, Intel is expected to launch its new flagship, the Core i9-13900KS, with boost frequencies hitting the 6 GHz mark, in an attempt to ward off the threat from "Zen 4" with 3D Vertical Cache, a technology that springboarded "Zen 3" gaming performance to match that of "Alder Lake."
Both the i9-13900KS and AMD Ryzen 7000X3D processors are expected to launch toward the middle of H1-2023 (March-April). AMD is only expected to launch 6-core/12-thread and 8-core/16-thread SKUs with the 3DV cache technology. These would be single-CCD packages. There's no word on dual-CCD ones with 12-core or 16-core counts, so a Ryzen 9 7950X3D is not on the horizon. AMD is expected to debut its entry-level A620 motherboard chipset in Q2-2023. This chipset reportedly lacks CPU overclocking capability, is expected to lack PCIe Gen 5, and caps memory speed to DDR5-4800.Intel is expected to refresh its 13th Gen Core processor lineup with new SKUs in Q3-2023. For now, all that's known about these "Raptor Lake Refresh" processors is that they come with 100-200 MHz speed bumps over existing 13th Gen Core SKUs of the time. This would also mean that the LGA1700 platform and "Raptor Lake" will be Intel's mainstay throughout 2023, and the 14th Gen "Meteor Lake" isn't launching until 2024.
While "Meteor Lake" will dominate Intel's mobile processor lineup, it will have a limited presence on the desktop side, due to its core-count of 6P+16E, despite IPC uplifts on both the P-cores and E-cores. These processors will, however, debut the next-generation Socket LGA1851 platform. 2024 will see Intel launch both the "Meteor Lake" and 15th Gen "Arrow Lake" processors. The "Arrow Lake" SoC will restore core-counts to the familiar 8P+16E, with IPC uplifts for at least the P-cores, over those on "Meteor Lake." In summary, 2023 will be a lukewarm year for new processor/platform launches, mainly due to the downturn in the PC industry. Intel and AMD will want to make less-risky bets.
Sources:
ECSM_Official (bilibili), ECSM_Official (bilibili), VideoCardz
Both the i9-13900KS and AMD Ryzen 7000X3D processors are expected to launch toward the middle of H1-2023 (March-April). AMD is only expected to launch 6-core/12-thread and 8-core/16-thread SKUs with the 3DV cache technology. These would be single-CCD packages. There's no word on dual-CCD ones with 12-core or 16-core counts, so a Ryzen 9 7950X3D is not on the horizon. AMD is expected to debut its entry-level A620 motherboard chipset in Q2-2023. This chipset reportedly lacks CPU overclocking capability, is expected to lack PCIe Gen 5, and caps memory speed to DDR5-4800.Intel is expected to refresh its 13th Gen Core processor lineup with new SKUs in Q3-2023. For now, all that's known about these "Raptor Lake Refresh" processors is that they come with 100-200 MHz speed bumps over existing 13th Gen Core SKUs of the time. This would also mean that the LGA1700 platform and "Raptor Lake" will be Intel's mainstay throughout 2023, and the 14th Gen "Meteor Lake" isn't launching until 2024.
While "Meteor Lake" will dominate Intel's mobile processor lineup, it will have a limited presence on the desktop side, due to its core-count of 6P+16E, despite IPC uplifts on both the P-cores and E-cores. These processors will, however, debut the next-generation Socket LGA1851 platform. 2024 will see Intel launch both the "Meteor Lake" and 15th Gen "Arrow Lake" processors. The "Arrow Lake" SoC will restore core-counts to the familiar 8P+16E, with IPC uplifts for at least the P-cores, over those on "Meteor Lake." In summary, 2023 will be a lukewarm year for new processor/platform launches, mainly due to the downturn in the PC industry. Intel and AMD will want to make less-risky bets.
70 Comments on Zen 4 X3D Limited to 8-Core and 6-Core, No Meteor Lake in 2023: Frosty Year Expected for CPU Market
And while Sapphire rapids’ volume ramp hasn’t been rapid whatsoever, it’s finally entering HVM. Intel is well underway at work on future Rapids like emerald and granite.
it’s not a frosty year for server where amd is asking for up to $11,000 for a cpu, and can’t make them fast enough.
I for one, appreciate just how much faster CPU's have got over the last 5 years, compared to the previous 14+ years of 1-3% "improvements" every two years, and not to mention that I love having more than 2 cores!
As far as the desktop is concerned, in Q3 2022 Intel did OK, revenue was up 3% and according to Mercury Research they increased desktop market share from 79.5% to 86.1%. Going forward the budget 13th gen (Raptor Lake) processors will launch in January 2023, except for the 12100 that will be replaced by a 'Raptor Lake refresh' 13100. I find the idea of some form of desktop Raptor Lake refresh a little surprising. I suspect that given the delay on 14th gen (Meteor Lake) mobile, that what this refers to is the release of a series of 'Raptor Lake refresh' CPUs in early 2023 for notebooks and laptops. I would expect Meteor Lake on the desktop to launch later in 2023. It seems unlikely to me that Intel would be launching both Meteor Lake and Arrow Lake in 2024. I would not be surprised if Meteor Lake mobile launched in 2024 and Arrow Lake was released in late 2024, but if conditions worsen might be pushed back to early 2025.
The notebook and laptop sector in terms of revenue has been pretty bad for Intel, revenue was down 26% in Q3 2022. Despite that Mercury Research say they increased market share in this sector in Q3 2022 from 75.2% to 84.3%. It's already known that the intended release of Meteor Lake mobile, originally scheduled for early 2023 will not happen. Given the overall situation it would make sense for Intel to release a 'Raptor Lake refresh' of the mobile CPUs they released in April 2022, and push Meteor Lake mobile back to 2024.
Looking at AMD, the financial figures for Q3 2022 are fairly well-known and there was a small loss for that quarter for the Desktop and Mobile sector. Part of that would have been due to the general downturn in the PC market, particularly notebooks and laptops but it was obviously compounded by the losses in market share to Intel for that quarter. AMD did increase its market share over Intel in the server market by around 4% in Q3 2022 according to Mercury, so it was not all bad news. Given that Intel seems to be delaying future releases, I think this is something that AMD may need to seriously consider. It would not surprise me if Zen 5 was delayed by a year or two.
What TPU does is test the real-world power draw - but up until the most recent round of testing they've only tested full-system power draw for CPUs, which is a severe methodological flaw, as it introduces far too much variance to produce reliable CPU power draw numbers. Depending on the application used to stress the system, full-system power draw can increase noticeably with a faster CPU at the exact same CPU-only power due to the faster CPU loading the RAM, PCIe, storage, or other subsystems more heavily. That TPU hasn't been using a clamp meter on the 12VEPS power cable for CPU power measurements until now is quite frankly baffling, and I'm extremely happy they've changed this.
Of course there are also questions of variability due to motherboards implementing different boost schemes, MCE, PBO, and so on differently for different chips. If you look at the most recent TPU CPU reviews, you'll see there's little variance between the 144W PPT Zen3 CPUs (5900X, 5950X), with the 138W 5800X sitting slightly below, and the 88W 5600X quite a bit below that again - though there is some variability due to this testing using a real world application (Blender) rather than a synthetic(-like) power virus/power draw generator like Prime95 or something else spawning nT of identical worker threads. Doing actual work will always differ somewhat from synthetics, but what you will see is that none of these exceed their PPT limits, which is AMD's spec. Those "platform limitations" are specifically the lack of a separate voltage plane for the cache die, and not something relating to overall power draw or anything like that. It's just the simple fact that the L3 cache on AM4 must be on the same voltage plane as the core, and when the 3D V-cache can't handle above 1.35V, then the cores can't be fed more than that either. It has nothing to do with the platform not handling the power draw of a higher clocked X3D CPU - heck, the 5800X3D consumes a lot less power than the regular 5800X. It's a drawback, sure, but "a big negative"? Nah. Just a minor annoyance that's extremely understandable when you introduce a brand-new feature like that on a 4th-gen product on the same platform. You don't design a platform with a bunch of spare voltage planes just because a future product might possibly need them at some point. This is a misunderstanding, see above. The 5800X3D is in no way held back due to power draw limitations of the platform. You seem to have missed out on some crucial information regarding these platform limitations which is leading you to think they are something entirely different from what they actually are.
Again, 3 main reason i think we will not see multi CCD Ryzen X3D cpu
- Gaming is one of the few workload that really benefits it, the second CCD Could cause more problem than it solves in this case, you would want to ensure the OS cache all the data in a Single CCD than splitting it accross 2 CCD. It's as slow as going to ram to lookup the Other CCD cache so that defeat the purpose. By having only one CCD, you ensure all the data is cached there and can be reused.
- Workload that really benefits from a lot of core like video encoding, 3D rendering for VFX, etc do not benefits from the extra cache. The other application that could benefits from it are either very niche or professional simulation software that cost a fortune for each license and are better spend on a high core count EPYC with 3d v-cache.
The last one is important, I think this is a segmentation point here, pushing people needing a lot of cache to go to EPYC that is way more expensive. (but also way more powerful).
But at last, This is a rumors, we all know how last rumors were all over the place so lets wait and see. AMD could maybe prepare a 2 CCD with 3D v-cache to sell it to few whales that have too much money to spend.
One interesting possibility for AMD going forward, as a response to Intel's hybrid architecture: variable cache layouts, with only one CCD getting the V-cache. Other than the physical difficulty of having 3D cache on one CCD and not on the other (the other would then need a layer of "structural silicon" for flatness and thermal transfer), AMD could probably do this without too much difficulty. It would be a far simpler scheduler thing than separating Intel's P and E cores at least, as their capabilities are much more different than just Zen4 cores with different amounts of cache. And AMD has already worked with MS to ensure the scheduler keeps threads belonging to the same workload (such as games) on the same CCD as much as possible. I really doubt this would happen (there'd likely be a minor uproar among enthusiasts who want specs just for the sake of specs), but it would be possible.
I expect the new 7000X3D CPUs to have at least similar clocks to that of regular 7000 series processors. Now whether this "rumor" about only the two lower skus having 3D V-cache are true, who knows. Over on Reddit it's already been reported that this "leaker" has an extremely poor track record of hits on their rumors, so who knows. Speculation over there thinks that 8 core and 16 core make more sense to have the 3D V-cache as it'll give gamers and enthusiasts their own SKU to buy into the X3D processors. I like that train of thought, but this far out who knows? We still have a couple months to go.
As for the cache aware, it's true for what it know. If you have by example 12 thread that run and modify the same data set. And one of them get scheduled on the second CCD, the written data will be on the other CCD and it will need to be read probably from main memory by the first CCD to continue creating latency.
The core itself do not schedule and they are not aware of other thread.
In an ideal world the OS would schedule all those 12 thread on the same CCD and run them with SMT instead. There is still a lot of improvement to be made there.
So, AMD has a chance to grab even more market share but given AMD's recent quite conservative progress based on increasing the TDP from 105 to as high as 170 officially and over 200 watts in reality, things look grey for the market. Stagnation, Moore's law is indeed dead and buried years ago.
Customers can be happy - invest in a good setup these days (preferably by July 2023) and keep it for over 5 years with ease.
In my view, the top multi threaded chips now will still be good in 10 or more years.
There's simply no need for such performance for 95%+ of home computing use cases. CPU is largely irrelevant for 4k 60 gaming, for example.
It's servers that can really benefit and still hard to get cheap multi core chips. I imagine that will change.
You can try to port it to tsmc instead but it will take more time and will cost much more. I can't see any of this happening, but will see.
Intel Core i9-13900K review - Performance - Corona Ray Tracing (guru3d.com)