Wednesday, November 1st 2023
NVIDIA is Rushing GeForce RTX 4090 Orders to China Before Export Restrictions
NVIDIA is reportedly rushing shipments of GeForce RTX 4090 GPUs to China in anticipation of expected export restrictions. We have already reported that NVIDIA might be canceling 5 billion US Dollars worth of orders. The US government will require an export license for shipping RTX 4090s to China, effectively restricting sales to the country. NVIDIA's add-in-board (AIB) partners are reportedly working at full capacity to produce as many RTX 4090 products for the Chinese market as possible before the potential restriction on November 17. While it remains unclear whether the export restrictions will ultimately be implemented, the anticipation of such measures has prompted NVIDIA and its partners to accelerate their production.
The Tweet that feeds this information is coming from Zed Wang, a well-known hardware leaker with historically accurate insights into NVIDIA's operations, who claims that "NVIDIA has been shipping tons of AD102 for AICs this week to manufacture as much RTX 4090 as possible before the original restriction date of RTX 4090 in China. It is still unclear whether the restriction will become true or not. But all AICs are at their full power in producing RTX 4090, regardless of that."
Source:
@Zed__Wang (X/Twitter)
The Tweet that feeds this information is coming from Zed Wang, a well-known hardware leaker with historically accurate insights into NVIDIA's operations, who claims that "NVIDIA has been shipping tons of AD102 for AICs this week to manufacture as much RTX 4090 as possible before the original restriction date of RTX 4090 in China. It is still unclear whether the restriction will become true or not. But all AICs are at their full power in producing RTX 4090, regardless of that."
58 Comments on NVIDIA is Rushing GeForce RTX 4090 Orders to China Before Export Restrictions
As for lithography
www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/09/china-makes-huge-chip-breakthrough-7-nanometers-with-euv-lithography-machines.html
They can make 7nm at 30-50% inflated cost. Good luck with that. What China does here is where TSMC never wanted to go because economically it just doesn't work out. The business case is a net loss, even with major chip price increases.
Meanwhile,
www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-august-new-home-prices-fall-fastest-pace-10-months-2023-09-15/
And that crisis has a lasting and direct effect on the workforce, especially younger workforce that is now far less likely to move out from parents' home into the cities where the tech development happens. Covid-after effects are on top of that. China is likely heading for a major crash, which they'll be hiding for the next decade while it plays out.Pretty unlikely, the key parts in ASML EUV machines are lenses and the tolerances for producing those correctly are near zero. There just aren't many companies that can physically even make them, the world over, and they're definitely not situated in China. Even Karl-Zeiss isn't succeeding with every batch/delivery of glass at ASML - sporadically, the quality is below par and it all gets returned. This is what the cutting edge looks like. EUV is a world first for good reasons.
Even the block on DUV isn't without an effect. ASML's DUV machines are also several steps ahead of the competition. And none of these machines will keep working indefinitely without maintenance. For maintenance you need parts. Very specific parts.
Unless export restrictions apply to every country with a border with China they'll fail totally.
Like the Russia sanctions, Russian trade collapsed with most countries but surged with China and some other countries they share a border with.
That being said, I agree about today with regards to modern China, and no my school system did not hide me from our own pretty horrible history, some of which still costs us to this day.