Friday, October 12th 2018

Prices for DRAM and NAND flash Will Drop in 2019, DRAMeXchange Says

Good news for consumers: prices for DRAM memory and NAND flash chips will start falling in the fourth quarter "ending nine straight quarters of growth", and that downward trend will continue throughout 2019 according to DRAMeXchange. Their data shows that average DRAM price will drop by 15~20% YoY in 2019 due to several reasons. Smartphones won't see remarkable shipments next year, for example, but there is also uncertainty in server shipments and the shortage of Intel CPUs could affect notebook and PC shipments. DRAM manufacturers expect a high possibility of oversupply, and DRAM expects the annual bit output to increase by nearly 22%, with the 1X/1Y processes going mature and the wafer starts increasing.

The trend will also affect NAND flash chips, which dropped 10% in price in the third quarter and are expected to fall another 10-15% in the fourth quarter. In 2019 the price decline will be around 25-30% due to increased 3D NAND production capacity, specially since enterprise SSD suppliers will fiercely compete next year. DRAMeXchange mentions the impact of China-US trade war, and alert about the gap between the supply and demand, that "may be moderated if the NAND Flash manufacturers postpone their capacity expansion and transition to 96-layer 3D NAND devices".
Source: DigiTimes
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20 Comments on Prices for DRAM and NAND flash Will Drop in 2019, DRAMeXchange Says

#1
Th3pwn3r
Not likely, tariffs will kick in soon and ruin that for everyone. Yes the tariffs are on US customs BUt they're going to have an effect on everyone sadly.
Posted on Reply
#2
TheinsanegamerN
"Th3pwn3r said:
Not likely, tariffs will kick in soon and ruin that for everyone. Yes the tariffs are on US customs BUt they're going to have an effect on everyone sadly.
People have been screaming "ZOMG TARRIFFS" for months now. A 5% increase from a tariff is not going to erase the collapsing price of NAND.

Prices will still go down, and moving yet more manufacturing out of the US begins to look unappealing.
Posted on Reply
#3
Th3pwn3r
5%? From what I have heard 25% is the number. Some tariffs just kicked in when October started, more on the way in 2019.
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#4
R0H1T
"TheinsanegamerN said:
People have been screaming "ZOMG TARRIFFS" for months now. A 5% increase from a tariff is not going to erase the collapsing price of NAND.

Prices will still go down, and moving yet more manufacturing out of the US begins to look unappealing.
Yeah & people have been hearing about DRAM or NAND prices going down, for ages, as well. Except the other day Sammy said they'd cut production if that happened, or something to that effect. The only way DRAM & NAND prices go down substantially is if the demand drops significantly & the manufacturers don't cut production.
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#5
The Quim Reaper
"R0H1T said:
The only way DRAM & NAND prices go down substantially is if the demand drops significantly & the manufacturers don't cut production.
The trouble is production of this stuff is set months in advance, what was predicted to be needed in Q1/Q2 2019 is probably already being manufactured and stored somewhere, if predicted demand fails to materialise in Q1/Q2 2019 then prices will drop very quickly as they try and cut their losses.

..should see $25-$50 off the price of 16GB, pretty soon.
Posted on Reply
#6
TheinsanegamerN
"R0H1T said:
Yeah & people have been hearing about DRAM or NAND prices going down, for ages, as well. Except the other day Sammy said they'd cut production if that happened, or something to that effect. The only way DRAM & NAND prices go down substantially is if the demand drops significantly & the manufacturers don't cut production.
Well, NAND prices HAVE been going down, or have you not paid attention to SSD prices? DRAM is the bigger issue, but even here the prices are not at their peak anymore.
Posted on Reply
#7
R0H1T
"The Quim Reaper said:
The trouble is production of this stuff is set months in advance, what was predicted to be needed in Q1/Q2 2019 is probably already being manufactured and stored somewhere, if predicted demand fails to materialise in Q1/Q2 2019 then prices will drop very quickly as they try and cut their losses.

..should see $25-$50 off the price of 16GB, pretty soon.
OR you know they could divert some/most of their production to enterprise sector where it fetches higher rate & their demand is completely insatiable atm.

I doubt DRAM or NAND is stored in huge quantities such that the NAND/DRAM makers will have trouble offloading them. They're the chip makers after all, unlike say Nvidia who contract TSMC or Sammy for bulk manufacturing of their piece of Silicon.
"TheinsanegamerN said:
Well, NAND prices HAVE been going down, or have you not paid attention to SSD prices? DRAM is the bigger issue, but even here the prices are not at their peak anymore.
That's a bit different, hint look for TLC & QLC.
Posted on Reply
#8
bonehead123
Need I say it again....

3 rules of Capitalism101:

A. Supply & demand
B. Supply & demand
C. Supply & demand

When/if rule A fails you, please refer to rule B.

When/if rule B fails you, refer to rule C....

Yadayadayada....
Posted on Reply
#9
TheLostSwede
"Th3pwn3r said:
Not likely, tariffs will kick in soon and ruin that for everyone. Yes the tariffs are on US customs BUt they're going to have an effect on everyone sadly.
Yes, exactly, that would ONLY affect the US and it would only affect products that are made in China. Luckily, most DRAM modules are made in Taiwan still...
Kingston, Corsair, Gskill, Adata and more are all making their DRAM modules in Taiwan, so this will have ZERO effect by any trade war between the US and China.
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#10
kapone32
I can say that I have seen it already in real time. The Samsung 970 Evo 1 TB has gone from over $500 at launch (cheaper than the 960 Evo) to $399 on sale. Even better though is the AData SX8200 960GB which was $439.99 then dropped to 369.99 and is right now on sale at Newegg for $289.99. Hopefully RAM prices will do the same too soon.
Posted on Reply
#11
Venger
"Th3pwn3r said:
Not likely, tariffs will kick in soon and ruin that for everyone. Yes the tariffs are on US customs BUt they're going to have an effect on everyone sadly.
For Samsung only 2 out of their 7 Fabs are located in China. Do the tariffs effect South Korea as far as DRAM goes?
Posted on Reply
#12
Vayra86
"bonehead123 said:
Need I say it again....

3 rules of Capitalism101:

A. Supply & demand
B. Supply & demand
C. Supply & demand

When/if rule A fails you, please refer to rule B.

When/if rule B fails you, refer to rule C....

Yadayadayada....
There is another factor to demand and also to supply though.

For demand: Elasticity of goods - not sure if its the correct term - which basically means people can still choose nót to buy something because price is too high. For consumers, DRAM is very much such an item. And even companies will postpone upgrades when and where they can if the timing can be better in the foreseeable future.

For supply: there is a much more complex chain at work here and any change will take time, but production can be adjusted to lower supply, creating relatively higher demand.

Trade tariffs are not that much of an influence until it cuts heavily into margins up to a net loss, and we know margins on DRAM are very high at the moment.
Posted on Reply
#13
Th3pwn3r
"Venger said:
For Samsung only 2 out of their 7 Fabs are located in China. Do the tariffs effect South Korea as far as DRAM goes?
Well Steve from GamerNexus had some good info and he mentioned Asia several times when discussing the tariffs. The list on things that are going to be affected is too long to read if you hold a steady job.

https://www.gamersnexus.net/industry/3368-manufacturers-on-tariff-impact-to-pc-prices

No specific mention of ram BUT there's always a domino effect. Companies don't want to lose any profits and try to make up ground where they can to keep shareholders happy. Personally I don't see memory dropping in price but we shall see.
Posted on Reply
#14
Athlonite
DRAM manufacturers expect a high possibility of oversupply

I find that statement to be absolute bollocks there wont be any oversupply they'll just drop the rate of production to keep demand and prices high it's the law of Supply and Demand
If supply is high and demand is low increase price
If demand is high and supply is low increase price
Posted on Reply
#15
timta2
"Venger said:
For Samsung only 2 out of their 7 Fabs are located in China. Do the tariffs effect South Korea as far as DRAM goes?
When it's all shipped back to China, for assembly, it does.
Posted on Reply
#16
micropage7
drop? i dont think that, maybe the DRAM is dropped but the whole package that must be paid mostly the same
Posted on Reply
#17
lynx29
gamersnexus said prices will only drop by 5% or so. clickbait articles, time to move on
Posted on Reply
#18
Object55
What are you saying price of DDR4 will come down, right before introduction of new overpriced DDR5 ? "Noooo, that couldn't be true"
Posted on Reply
#19
Readlight
I just take from old pc and put in my one because of price always too high.
Posted on Reply
#20
bonehead123
"Object55 said:
What are you saying price of DDR4 will come down, right before introduction of new overpriced DDR5 ? "Noooo, that couldn't be true"
Yes but not before they give it 1 final, huge markup.....

That way it appears to be a great deal, but in reality is just more consumer milking & bilking by the greedy sob's that make the stuff...
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