GeForce value over time and 40-series pricing.

[AusWolf]

The node Nvidia is using is essentially 5nm+, same as how TSMC's 6nm is just 7nm+. If it does cost more, it's likely a very small amount. Otherwise it's not really worth it. Akin to TSMC 6nm, the density increase is extremely small with the upside that it's compatible with 7nm. In essence Nvidia could have taped out for 5nm and the design would have been compatible with TSMC's 4nm.

Here's TSMC's page for the 5nm which references 4nm: https://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/technology/logic/l_5nm

4nm doesn't have it's own section due to the reasons stated above and on TSMC's website.

Yes, the 5nm price estimate were in the $16,000 - $17,000 range. Current estimates at over 2 1/2 years later place that at around $10,000.

As you pointed out, even under the most generous circumstances it's hard to explain the price of the 4080.

The price of the 4080 has nothing to do with all that, imo. I think the price comes only from the fact that a huge amount of 30-series stock is still in stores due to the mining crash, which Nvidia didn't expect. If they sell the 4080 any cheaper than they currently are, it'll only be a guarantee that 30-series stock will never move. Any further 40-series card released will only cut into profits coming from 30-series cards.

 

[bug]

The price of the 4080 has nothing to do with all that, imo. I think the price comes only from the fact that a huge amount of 30-series stock is still in stores due to the mining crash, which Nvidia didn't expect. If they sell the 4080 any cheaper than they currently are, it'll only be a guarantee that 30-series stock will never move. Any further 40-series card released will only cut into profits coming from 30-series cards.

Here's the thing, at this point nothing cuts into Nvidia's profits from the 30-series. Those contracts have long been signed and most of the GPUs have shipped long ago. Nvidia may be helping AIBs to move their inventory, but that would be just a gesture of good-will trying to stay on their good side.
Ada GPUs are still big and using wide memory interfaces. Historically speaking, that never resulted in cheap video cards. So my hunch is 40-series would be expensive if if 30-series inventory wouldn't be in the picture. Which is kinda sad because I'm still not spending $500+ on a video card. Period.

 

[evernessince]

Well, if you must insist...

NVIDIA CMP 90HX Specs

NVIDIA GA102, 1710 MHz, 6400 Cores, 200 TMUs, 80 ROPs, 10240 MB GDDR6X, 1188 MHz, 320 bit

www.techpowerup.com

"Unlike the fully unlocked GeForce RTX 3090 Ti, which uses the same GPU but has all 10752 shaders enabled, NVIDIA has disabled some shading units on the CMP 90HX to reach the product's target shader count."

Disabled shaders - you don't do that with working dies.

Many Nvidia's GPUs have some shaders disabled. 3070, 3080, and 3090 for example. Saying you don't disable shaders on working dies is just plain wrong.

The mining GPU you linked does indeed have a lot of shaders disabled but then again if you look at the CMP 70HX, which uses the same die as the 3070, it actually has more shaders enabled then the 3070.

Furthermore: https://www.techpowerup.com/gpu-specs/?mfgr=NVIDIA&generation=Mining GPUs&sort=name
Mining-oriented SKUs dating back to Pascal. Thus, not something concocted during the past mining craze years.

Want a more direct confirmation CMP did not choke GPU supplies? Here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494555384719511554

$24m revenue when a card sells for $8k means a grand total of 3,000 units sold.

The linked tweet you posted was for $550 million for the year. $24m was the stated quarterly number, which knowing basic match means that compared to the other 3 quarters of the year is a massive drop and not-representative of the whole.

Mind you there was no reason for you to cherry pick the $24m number to begin with, it's a drop in the bucket compared to their total revenue. Given what I've seen it's unlikely that cypto specific cards had a significant impact on cards.

Given that this was a point you were making I'm just happy you were able to support the claim. That said for future reference twitter is not a valid source. I validated the numbers through other sources.

If I were a miner with $$$ to burn, the most straightforward way for me to get my hands on video cards would be from an AIB partner. Your theory where Nvidia somehow forces not one, but all partners to sell to miners to which Nvidia itself has no direct relation is... shall we say, way more far fetched and therefore way more improbable.

It's far fetched because I never said it. You are making a strawman argument. I stated that Nvidia had a lot of control over it's AIB partners but never once did I say they forced them to sell to miniers.

As for my other claims you'll what? Those earlier posts were from over a week ago with data and sources present. You've had plenty of time to dispute them beyond 1-line quips.