Following in the wake of an earthquake that struck on April 3rd, TrendForce undertook an in-depth analysis of its effects on the DRAM industry, uncovering a sector that has shown remarkable resilience and faced minimal interruptions. Despite some damage and the necessity for inspections or disposal of wafers among suppliers, the facilities' strong earthquake preparedness of the facilities has kept the overall impact to a minimum.

Leading DRAM producers, including Micron, Nanya, PSMC, and Winbond had all returned to full operational status by April 8th. In particular, Micron's progression to cutting-edge processes—specifically the 1alpha and 1beta nm technologies—is anticipated to significantly alter the landscape of DRAM bit production. In contrast, other Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers are still working with 38 and 25 nm processes, contributing less to total output. TrendForce estimates that the earthquake's effect on DRAM production for the second quarter will be limited to a manageable 1%.

TrendForce reports a 29.6% QoQ in DRAM industry revenue for 4Q23, reaching US$17.46 billion, propelled by revitalized stockpiling efforts and strategic production control by leading manufacturers. Looking ahead to 1Q24, the intent to further enhance profitability is evident, with a projected near 20% increase in DRAM contract prices—albeit with a slight decrease in shipment volumes to the traditional off-season.

Samsung led the pack with the highest revenue growth among the top manufacturers in Q4 as it jumped 50% QoQ to hit $7.95 billion, largely due to a surge in 1alpha nm DDR5 shipments, boosting server DRAM shipments by over 60%. SK hynix saw a modest 1-3% rise in shipment volumes but benefited from the pricing advantage of HBM and DDR5, especially from high-density server DRAM modules, leading to a 17-19% increase in ASP and a 20.2% rise in revenue to $5.56 billion. Micron witnessed growth in both volume and price, with a 4-6% increase in each, resulting in a more moderate revenue growth of 8.9%, totaling $3.35 billion for the quarter due to its comparatively lower share of DDR5 and HBM.

TrendForce investigations reveal a significant leap in the DRAM industry for 3Q23, with total revenues soaring to US$13.48 billion—marking 18% QoQ growth. This surge is attributed to a gradual resurgence in demand, prompting buyers to re-energize their procurement activities. Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13-18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.

Three major manufacturers witnessed Q3 revenue growth. Samsung's revenue increased by about 15.9% to US$5.25 billion thanks to stable demand for high-capacity products fueled by AI advancements and the rollout of its 1alpha nm DDR5. SK hynix showcased the most notable growth among manufacturers with a 34.4% increase, reaching about US$4.626 billion and significantly narrowing its market share gap with Samsung to less than 5%. Micron's revenue rose by approximately 4.2% to US$3.075 billion—despite a slight drop in ASP—supported by an upswing in demand and shipment volumes.

Winbond Electronics Corporation, a leading global supplier of semiconductor memory solutions, has unveiled a powerful enabling technology for affordable Edge AI computing in mainstream use cases. The Company's new customized ultra-bandwidth elements (CUBE) enable memory technology to be optimized for seamless performance running generative AI on hybrid edge/cloud applications.

CUBE enhances the performance of front-end 3D structures such as chip on wafer (CoW) and wafer on wafer (WoW), as well as back-end 2.5D/3D chip on Si-interposer on substrate and fan-out solutions. Designed to meet the growing demands of edge AI computing devices, it is compatible with memory density from 256 Mb to 8 Gb with a single die, and it can also be 3D stacked to enhance bandwidth while reducing data transfer power consumption.

TrendForce reports that rising demand for AI servers has driven growth in HBM shipments. Combined with the wave of inventory buildup for DDR5 on the client side, the second quarter saw all three major DRAM suppliers experience shipment growth. Q2 revenue for the DRAM industry reached approximately US$11.43 billion, marking a 20.4% QoQ increase and halting a decline that persisted for three consecutive quarters. Among suppliers, SK hynix saw a significant quarterly growth of over 35% in shipments. The company's shipments of DDR5 and HBM, both of which have higher ASP, increased significantly. As a result, SK hynix's ASP grew counter-cyclically by 7-9%, driving its Q2 revenue to increase by nearly 50%. With revenue reaching US$3.44 billion, SK hynix claimed the second spot in the industry, leading growth in the sector.

Samsung, with its DDR5 process still at 1Ynm and limited shipments in the second quarter, experienced a drop in its ASP by around 7-9%. However, benefitting from inventory buildup by module houses and increased demand for AI server setups, Samsung saw a slight increase in shipments. This led to an 8.6% QoQ increase in Q2 revenue, reaching US$4.53 billion, securing them the top position. Micron, ranking third, was a bit late in HBM development. However, DDR5 shipments held a significant proportion, keeping their ASP relatively stable. Boosted by shipments, its revenue was around US$2.95 billion, a quarterly increase of 15.7%. Both companies saw a reduction in their market share.

TrendForce reports a dramatic 21.2% QoQ decline in Q1 revenues for the DRAM industry, bringing total revenue down to US$9.663 billion. This significant dip represents the third consecutive quarter where revenues have fallen. A closer look reveals that increased shipment volumes were exclusive to Micron, with other suppliers noting a decrease. The ASP fell for all three major suppliers. An enduring oversupply issue, which has led to an ongoing slump in prices, is the chief culprit behind the decline. Nevertheless, the industry expects a gradual slowing in the rate of price decline following planned production cuts. TrendForce's Q2 forecast suggests a rise in shipments, but the ongoing price fall might limit potential revenue growth.

Each of the three major suppliers—Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix—reported a drop in quarterly revenue. Samsung saw a decline in both shipment volumes and ASP due to fewer orders for its newly launched devices, resulting in a QoQ decrease in revenue of 24.7%, amounting to about US$4.17 billion. Benefiting from its earlier financial reporting and the tail-end orders of the previous year, Micron climbed to the second position in 1Q23. Despite being the only supplier among the big three to record positive shipment growth, Micron couldn't avoid a minor 3.8% revenue decline, taking its total down to US$2.72 billion. SK hynix faced the steepest decline, with more than a 15% drop in both shipment volume and ASP, leading to a drastic 31.7% plunge in revenue, amounting to approximately USD$2.31 billion.

Last October, the US Department of Commerce imposed semiconductor restrictions on Chinese imports of equipment for processes of 18 nm and below. SK hynix's Wuxi fab was granted a one-year production license, but geopolitical risks and weak demand prompted the company to reduce wafer starts by about 30% per month in 2Q23, according to TrendForce's latest research.

TrendForce reports that SK hynix had planned to transition its Wuxi fab's mainstream process from 1Y nm to 1Z nm, decreasing the output of legacy processes. However, due to limitations imposed by the US ban, the company instead opted to increase the share of its 21 nm production lines, focus-ing on DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb products. SK hynix's long-term strategy involves shifting its capacity expansion back to South Korea, while the Wuxi fab caters to domestic demand in China and the legacy-process consumer DRAM market.

According to TrendForce's research, global DRAM revenue fell by 32.5% QoQ to US$12, 281 million for 4Q22. The QoQ decline for 4Q22 is larger than the QoQ decline of 28.8% for 3Q22 and comes close to the QoQ decline of 36% for the final quarter of 2008, when the global economy was in the midst of a major financial crisis. The main cause of the steep revenue drop in 4Q22 was the plummeting overall ASP. DRAM suppliers experienced a rapid accumulation of inventory in 3Q22 due to a freeze in buyers' demand. Subsequently, suppliers were much more energetic in price negotiations for 4Q22 contracts as they were struggling for market share. Among the major categories of DRAM products, server DRAM suffered the sharpest price drop in 4Q22. Contract prices of DDR4 and DDR5 server DRAM products registered QoQ drops of 23~28% and 30~35% respectively.

Winbond has joined the UCIe (Universal Chiplet Interconnect Express) Consortium, the industry Consortium dedicated to advancing UCIe technology. This open industry standard defines interconnect between chiplets within a package, enabling an open chiplet ecosystem and facilitating the development of advanced 2.5D/3D devices.

A leader in high-performance memory ICs, Winbond is an established supplier of known good die (KGD) needed to assure end-of-line yield in 2.5D/3D assembly. 2.5D/3D multichip devices are needed to realize the exponential improvements in performance, power efficiency, and miniaturization, demanded by the explosion of technologies such as 5G, Automotive, and Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Global market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that for 3Q22, the revenue of the whole DRAM industry dropped by 28.9% QoQ to US$18.19 billion. This decline is the second largest to the one that the industry experienced in 2008, when the global economy was rocked by a major financial crisis. Regarding the state of the DRAM market in 3Q22, the QoQ decline in contract prices widened to the range of 10~15% as the demand for consumer electronics continued to shrink. Server DRAM shipments, which had been on a relatively stable trend compared with shipments of other types of DRAM products, also slowed down noticeably from the previous quarter as buyers began adjusting their inventory levels.

Turning to individual DRAM suppliers' performances in 3Q22, the top three suppliers (i.e., Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) all exhibited a QoQ drop in revenue. Samsung posted US$7.40 billion and a QoQ drop of 33.5%, which was the largest among the top three. SK hynix's revenue fell by 25.2% QoQ to around US$5.24 billion. As for Micron, its revenue came to around US$4.81 billion. Since Micron marks its fiscal quarters differently, its DRAM ASP showed a QoQ decline that was smaller than the ones suffered by the two Korean suppliers. And as a result of this, Micron's QoQ revenue decline was also the smallest among the top three. TrendForce points out that the top three are still maintaining a relatively high operating margin at this moment. Nevertheless, the inventory correction period that has started this year will last through the first half of next year, so they will experience a continuing squeeze on profit.

Winbond Electronics Corporation, a leading global supplier of semiconductor memory solutions, today announced that its new package 100BGA LPDDR4/4X had achieved the JEDEC JED209-4 standard to ensure energy conservation and carbon reduction. The LPDDR4/4X is now available in a space-saving 100BGA package measuring only 7.5X10mm2. The device is ideal for IoT applications requiring higher throughput in a small package to allow designers to reduce the PCB size for more compact IoT designs.

Winbond's LPDDR4/4X memory is available in density of 1Gb and 2Gb, supporting speeds of up to 4267 Mbps. It is available in both Single-Die-Package (SDP) with a 2Gb density and Dual-Die-Package (DDP) with a 4Gb density. The higher speed of LPDDR4 1CH x16 4267 Mbps offers improved performance over previous DDR4 x16 3200 Mbps devices, which is especially useful for consumer applications.

Based on a report from IC Insights, it appears that the demand for semiconductors and memory is starting to slow down. The slowdown is industry wide, with most major players having seen a reduction in sales in June compared to May. Although the report is focused on Taiwanes semiconductor companies, it also mentions Micron, who is expecting a slowdown in the third quarter of this year. Micron is reportedly expecting a drop in sales by as much as 17 percent, although this past quarter the company saw an increase in sales by 11 percent compared to the previous quarter, or 19 percent compared to last year, so it could simply be that the market is starting to normalise.

As for the Taiwanese semiconductor companies, TSMC saw a reduction in sales of five percent in June, although its competitor UMC saw an increase of two percent. Two other Taiwanese foundries, Powerchip and Vanguard, saw a decrease of four percent and an increase of three percent respectively, which shows that the foundry businesses are seeing change based on the type of chips they make. Apart from Winbond and Macronix, the other four companies in the report saw a decrease in sales by anything between two and 26 percent. Novatek, a manufacturer of semiconductors for the display industry saw the biggest dip in sales, with memory manufacturer Nanya seeing a drop of 16 percent. It should be pointed out that Novatek saw an increase in sales of 78 percent during the pandemic, which suggests their customers might not be seeing the same demand for their end products as they did over the past two years. For now, this could just be a slowdown over the summer months, when demand is usually quite low, but it could also be an indication of a return to a more normalised market.

Intel and AMD will be releasing new CPUs that support DDR5 DRAM solutions for PCs and servers this year. In response, the DRAM industry led by South Korean suppliers is developing solutions to complement the arrival of the new CPUs. In the midst of the gradual shift to DDR5, DRAM suppliers will also scale back the supply of DDR3 solutions, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. With Korean suppliers accelerating their withdrawal from DDR3 production, Taiwanese suppliers yet to kick off mass production using newly installed capacities, and Chinese suppliers falling short of their expected yield rate, the global supply of DDR3 solutions will undergo an impending decline. With respect to the demand side, however, not only has the supply of networking chips been ramping up, but material shortage issues are also gradually easing. As such, buyers are now procuring DDR3 solutions ahead of time, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in the DDR3 market. TrendForce therefore expects DDR3 DRAM prices to recover from a bearish first quarter and undergo a 0-5% QoQ increase in 2Q22.

Despite the forecasted 18.6% YoY growth in total DRAM bit supply next year, the global DRAM market is still expected to shift from a shortage situation to an oversupply, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. This shift can primarily be attributed to the fact that, not only are most buyers now carrying a relatively high level of DRAM inventory, but DRAM bit demand is also expected to increase by only 17.1% YoY in 2022. On the price front, the oversupply situation will result in a drop in DRAM ASP in 2022 but not a major decline in annual DRAM revenue, thanks to the oligopolistic nature of the DRAM industry. Annual DRAM revenue for 2022 is expected to reach US$91.54 billion, which represents a slight YoY increase of 0.3%.

Based on an analysis of DRAM sufficiency ratio (which refers to the surplus of supply in comparison with demand) for each quarter in 2022, TrendForce forecasts a 15% YoY decrease in DRAM ASP for 2022, with prices undergoing the more noticeable declines during the first half of the year. Heading into 2H22, however, owing to the rise in DDR5 penetration rate, as well as the arrival of peak seasonal demand, the decline in DRAM ASP will likely narrow. TrendForce does not rule out the possibility that DRAM ASP may even hold flat or undergo an increase in 2H22.

DRAM contract prices are likely to exit a bullish period that lasted three quarters and be on the downswing in 4Q21 at a QoQ decline of 3-8%, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. This decline can be attributed to not only the declining procurement activities of DRAM buyers going forward, but also the drop in DRAM spot prices ahead of contract prices. While the buying and selling sides attempt to gain the advantage in future transactions, the DRAM market's movement in 2022 will primarily be determined by suppliers' capacity expansion strategies in conjunction with potential growths in demand. The capacity expansion plans of the three largest DRAM suppliers (Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) for 2022 are expected to remain conservative, resulting in a 17.9% growth in total DRAM bit supply next year. On the demand side, inventory levels at the moment are relatively high. Hence, DRAM bit demand is expected to grow by 16.3% next year and lag behind bit supply growth. TrendForce therefore forecasts a shift in the DRAM market next year from shortage to surplus.

After DRAM prices made a rebound into an upward trajectory in 1Q21, buyers expanded their DRAM procurement activities in 2Q21 as they anticipated a further price hike and insufficient supply going forward, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. Not only was demand robust from clients in the notebook segment, which benefitted from ongoing WFH and distance learning applications, but CSPs also sought to gradually replenish their DRAM inventories. Furthermore, demand for products that are relatively niche, including graphics DRAM and consumer DRAM, remained strong. Hence, DRAM suppliers experienced better-than-expected QoQ increases in their DRAM shipment for 2Q21. At the same time, DRAM quotes grew by a greater magnitude compared to the first quarter as well. With both shipment and quotes undergoing growths in tandem, DRAM suppliers registered remarkable growths in their revenues in 2Q21. Total DRAM revenue for 2Q21 reached US$24.1 billion, a 26% QoQ increase.

Demand for DRAM exceeded expectations in 1Q21 as the proliferation of WFH and distance education resulted in high demand for notebook computers against market headwinds, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. Also contributing to the increased DRAM demand was Chinese smartphone brands' ramp-up of component procurement while these companies, including OPPO, Vivo, and Xiaomi, attempted to seize additional market shares after Huawei's inclusion on the Entity List. Finally, DRAM demand from server manufacturers also saw a gradual recovery. Taken together, these factors led to higher-than-expected shipments from various DRAM suppliers in 1Q21 despite the frequent shortage of such key components as IC and passive components. On the other hand, DRAM prices also entered an upward trajectory in 1Q21 in accordance with TrendForce's previous forecasts. In light of the increases in both shipments and quotes, all DRAM suppliers posted revenue growths in 1Q21, and overall DRAM revenue for the quarter reached US$19.2 billion, an 8.7% growth QoQ.

Demand for PC, mobile, graphics, and special DRAM remains healthy in 2Q21. Furthermore, after two to three quarters of inventory reduction during which their DRAM demand was relatively sluggish, some server manufacturers have now kicked off a new round of procurement as they expect a persistent increase in DRAM prices. TrendForce therefore forecasts a significant QoQ increase in DRAM ASP in 2Q21. In conjunction with increased bit shipment, this price hike will likely drive total DRAM revenue for 2Q21 to increase by more than 20% QoQ.

Global DRAM revenue reached US$17.65 billion, a 1.1% increase YoY, in 4Q20, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. For the most part, this growth took place because Chinese smartphone brands, including Oppo, Vivo, and Xiaomi, expanded their procurement activities for components in order to seize the market shares made available after Huawei was added to the Entity List by the U.S. Department of Commerce. These procurement activities in turn provided upward momentum for DRAM suppliers' bit shipment. However, clients in the server segment were still in the middle of inventory adjustments during this period, thereby placing downward pressure on DRAM prices. As a result, revenues of most DRAM suppliers, except for Micron, remained somewhat unchanged in 4Q20 compared to 3Q20. Micron underwent a noticeable QoQ decline in 4Q20 (which Micron counts as its fiscal 1Q21), since Micron had fewer work weeks during this period compared to the previous quarter.

Driven by such factors as the continued development of autonomous driving technologies and the build-out of 5G infrastructure, the demand for automotive memories will undergo a rapid growth going forward, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. Take Tesla, which is the automotive industry leader in the application of autonomous vehicle technologies, as an example. Tesla has adopted GDDR5 DRAM products from the Model S and X onward because it has also adopted Nvidia's solutions for CPU and GPU. The GDDR5 series had the highest bandwidth at the time to complement these processors. The DRAM content has therefore reached at least 8 GB for vehicles across all model series under Tesla. The Model 3 is further equipped with 14 GB of DRAM, and the next-generation of Tesla vehicles will have 20 GB. If content per box is used as a reference for comparison, then Tesla far surpasses manufacturers of PCs and smartphones in DRAM consumption. TrendForce forecasts that the average DRAM content of cars will continue to grow in the next three years, with a CAGR of more than 30% for the period.

The last cyclical upturn in DRAM contract prices began at the start of 2020 and was led by server DRAM, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. In 2Q20, the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic shocked the global economy, but OEMs maintained or even stepped up procurement of components because they feared disruptions in the supply chain. As a result, DRAM suppliers' bit shipments surpassed expectations for the quarter, in turn widening the overall increase in DRAM ASP and raising the global DRAM revenue by 15.4% QoQ in 2Q20 to US$17.1 billion.

Nevertheless, TrendForce indicates that server OEMs are now carrying a rather high level of DRAM inventory after aggressively stocking up for two consecutive quarters. At the same time, customers of enterprise servers are holding back on procurement because the economic outlook is getting bleaker and more uncertain. Since server DRAM has the unique role of leading cyclical changes, this category is going to be first to experience price drop in the next downturn and thereby pull prices down for other types of DRAM products. As such, TrendForce forecasts at best a flattening of product shipments and decrease in DRAM prices in 3Q20, with DRAM suppliers suffering a decline in profitability.

Winbond Electronics Corporation, a leading global supplier of semiconductor memory solutions, today extended its record of leading the industry's innovation in specialty Flash memory with the introduction of a more flexible, high-speed read capability in its latest QspiNAND Flash products. Automotive and IoT device manufacturers are increasingly adopting high-performance Single-Level Cell (SLC) NAND Flash as a low-cost alternative at densities of 512 Mbits and higher to the NOR Flash traditionally used for code storage. Previous Winbond innovations in high-performance NAND Flash include the Quad SPI-NAND interface, which shares the same 6-pin signals and QSPI command set as Quad SPI-NOR, and the Continuous Read function, which achieves up to a 52 MB/s continuous data transfer rate at a 104 MHz clock frequency.

Panasonic, an electronics manufacturing giant, has today sold its silicon manufacturing business, marking the end of an era of Japanese semiconductor manufacturing. Once a big player in silicon manufacturing scene, particularly in the '80s and '90s era when Japan's silicon output was huge, Panasonic was considered one of the main players in the silicon manufacturing business. However, due to some difficulties like operating a business with a loss of over $215 million yearly, and having to compete with Chinese and Taiwanese silicon manufacturing firms, Panasonic is selling its silicon production lines.

The subsidiary of Panasonic called "Semiconductors Solutions" is being sold to Nuvoton Technology Corporation, a semiconductor company that spun-off from Winbond Electronics Corporation in 2008, where Winbond still owns 61% stake in Nuvoton despite the spinoff. Additionally, Panasonic forecasts a 27% drop in operating profit for this physical year, with the declining semiconductor manufacturing business counted. The reasoning behind this sale is that the company plans to exit all declining businesses that also include LCD manufacturing, as Chinese alternative manufacturers are stiff competition for Panasonic when it comes to pricing and panel output.

Winbond Electronics released a new line of serial peripheral interface flash (SPI Flash) memory chips designed to have tiny board footprints (sizes). 8-pin SPI Flash memory chips are in almost every part of today's computers, be it the chip that stores motherboard or VGA BIOS, the one that stores third-party controller firmware, or even boot ROM of network cards. Its applications get even broader with consumer electronics devices. Winbond launched new 8-pin SPI Flash chips in ultra-thin small-outline no-lead (USON) and wafer-level-ball-grid-array (WLBGA) form-factors, that have 20% smaller board footprints than common WSON and SOIC packages.

Winbond's new 6 mm² USON SPI Flash chips come in sizes of 512 Kb, 1 Mb, 2 Mb, 4 Mb, and 8 Mb, and with voltage options of common 2.5V and 3V. Low-power 1.8V options are available, too. The WLBGA SPIFlash chips will be available in 8 Mb and 16 Mb capacities, with package sizes of 3.4 mm² and 4.8 mm², respectively. Currently these chips are built on the more common 90 nm bulk manufacturing process, but Winbond expects to transition to 58 nm bulk process, driving down costs, in the future.

Elpida Memory, Inc., Japan's leading global supplier of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), today announced that it had completed development of a high-density, high-speed, low-power consumption 50nm process 2-gigabit GDDR5 using copper interconnects (product name: EDW2032BABG). The new GDDR5, the first graphics DRAM designed by Elpida, was developed at the company's Munich Design Center in Germany.

Applications for GDDR (GDDR: Graphics Double Data Rate) memory devices used with GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) are found not only in such graphic processing equipment as game consoles and PC graphics cards but also in equipment that require high-performance computing for use in such areas as science and technology, physical simulation, digital image processing and video conversion. Using 2-gigabit GDDR5 in these applications can double the frame buffer size of each GPU compared with 1-gigabit memory products.

Elpida Memory, Inc., Japan's leading global supplier of Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), and Winbond Electronics Corp. today announced that they have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) for DRAM foundry services that will see Winbond manufacture DRAMs under contract to Elpida. The outsourcing agreement is the first step of a business partnership the two companies intend to pursue further.

The agreement pertains to the supply of GDDR3 and GDDR5 graphic DRAMs for Elpida. Prior to this agreement Winbond and Elpida have been working together to commercialize GDDR3 and GDDR5 DRAM products. Winbond is preparing to begin commercial production of these products by the end of 2009 while Elpida plans to begin purchasing the output in the first half of 2010.