TrendForce's latest notebook industry research reveals that the primary risk facing the market in 2027 is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of rising costs on demand. Global notebook shipments are currently projected to decline by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027. However, if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated, brands may be forced to pass more of these costs on to consumers. These higher retail prices could further extend replacement cycles, potentially pushing the full-year shipment decline into the high-single-digit range.

In 2026, improved CPU availability, early procurement by brands, and the pull-forward of some replacement demand helped support notebook shipments. However, this does not indicate a meaningful recovery in end-market demand. With some purchases originally expected in the second half of 2026 and beyond already brought forward, replacement momentum in subsequent periods is likely to weaken. Furthermore, as lower-cost inventories are gradually depleted, brands will face more direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices.

If you thought consumer graphics card prices were bad, the situation isn't much better on the workstation front. According to an update on NVIDIA's marketplace, the company's flagship workstation card—the RTX PRO 6000 "Blackwell"—is now retailing for $16,000. This makes it the most expensive GPU that NVIDIA sells outside of its server offerings like the B200/B300, which come in the SXM form factor. Even for a graphics card equipped with 24,064 CUDA cores and 96 GB of GDDR7 memory, this price is astonishing and show just how much memory shortages are impacting GPU pricing. For a SKU that features 32 GDDR7 memory modules, each with a 3 GB capacity, any increase in supply chain costs is instantly multiplied by 32 for this very expensive component.

On the RTX PRO 6000 "Blackwell" GPU, there are 16 GDDR7 modules on the front side with the GPU die and 16 GDDR7 modules on the back of the PCB, effectively sandwiching the PCB. This results in 32 modules spread across the GPU. Back in late July, each 3 GB GDDR7 module cost about $60 to $70, so the total cost of the GDDR7 alone ranged from $1,920 to $2,240. This is the price of what is essentially a raw material, crucial for manufacturing this SKU. Considering that there might be additional GDDR7 price increases now, NVIDIA has priced its flagship workstation SKU at $16,000, accounting for many other component costs, such as MLCCs, which are also in tight supply.

Motherboard manufacturers are currently facing a challenging situation where declining sales are impacting their revenue, and rising component costs are eroding their margins. According to the latest update from Board Partners, major motherboard manufacturers, including ASUS, GIGABYTE, and MSI, are expected to introduce a series of planned price increases to maintain their margins. Taiwanese motherboard makers are experiencing price increases across their supply chain, with the cost of bare PCBs used in manufacturing these motherboards expected to rise by at least 50% this year, significantly impacting component costs. Raw materials used in manufacturing, such as copper, are also in high demand, leading to price increases. Other electronic components like control chips, power devices, and surface-mount capacitors, such as MLCCs, are experiencing significant bottlenecks.

As a result, motherboard manufacturers are facing substantial price increases from their supply chain and are being forced to implement price hikes this quarter. The total bill of materials (BOM) for each motherboard design varies, as every platform uses a different number of capacitors, power components, and control chips. Additionally, each motherboard uses a different number of PCB layers, affecting the BOM. This means we are not yet certain how much motherboards will be impacted by the component shortage, as only motherboard manufacturers know exactly how much they need to adjust their pricing percentage-wise, likely on a per-motherboard SKU basis.

With the course of the COVID-19 pandemic constantly changing, China is sticking with its "Dynamic Zero-COVID Policy" and has been slow to lift the lockdown on its cities that have been recently affected by the outbreaks of the disease. Hence, the manufacturing industries of the major Chinese cities are facing delays in the resumption of normal operation, and a production gap has emerged in 2Q22. For the electronics ODMs, this production gap will be difficult to bridge in 2H22. Additionally, the ongoing global inflation is keeping prices of goods at a very high level, and this trend will dampen the peak-season demand surge during the second half of the year. The effect of the inflationary pressure has been especially noticeable in the demand for consumer electronics such as smartphones, notebook computers, and tablet computers. This, in turn, is also impacting the MLCC market in terms of demand and inventory. Currently, the general inventory level has risen above 90 days for MLCCs of all sizes. Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that prices of consumer-spec MLCCs will fall further by 3-6% on average in 2H22.

On the other hand, demand remains fairly strong in application segments such as high-performance computing solutions (which include servers), networking equipment, industrial automation solutions, and energy storage systems. Furthermore, IDMs in the semiconductor industry will be adjusting the allocation of production capacity as the market for consumer electronics continues to experience a slowdown in 2H22. As a result, the undersupply situation for certain ICs will ease. Moreover, demand will be propped up in the high-end segment of the MLCC market and other application segments (e.g., automotive electronics and industrial equipment). All in all, thanks to the demand related to automotive electronics, servers, networking equipment, etc., TrendForce forecasts that the annual total MLCC shipments will increase by 2% YoY to around 2.58 trillion pieces for 2022.

After all the reports of component shortages over the past few months, it now seems that the power related problems in China are having an effect on demand of passive components, such as MLCCs (Multilayer Ceramic Capacitor), various types of resistors and inductors among others. As such, manufacturers of said components in Taiwan are cautious about demand for the rest of this quarter, with even big players like Yageo - they're the third largest manufacturer in the world of passive components - being conservative, if somewhat positive about shipments this quarter, according to Digitimes.

As many of the Taiwanese makers of passive components have factories in China, the power cuts in several provinces are adversely affecting these companies. In the case of Yageo, they claim to be able to maintain their production at its largest facility in China, due to it not being located in one of the so far not affected provinces. Some of its competitors aren't as lucky and have already seen losses in production and aren't expecting things to improve. Besides the power outages, there are still issues with the logistics and shipping, which is further causing problems.

MSI became aware of reports from customers, reviewers, and system integrators that there may be instability when GeForce RTX 30 Series graphics cards core clocks exceeded a certain amount. The latest GeForce driver (456.55) includes fixes for the issue. As such, MSI recommends owners of GeForce RTX 30 Series graphics cards update to the latest driver release which can be downloaded from the NVIDIA GeForce website.

MSI stands behind its design decisions for its GeForce RTX 30 Series graphics cards catalog which consists of GAMING models and VENTUS models. MSI utilizes a mixed capacitor grouping in its designs to benefit from the strengths of both SP-Caps and MLCCs. All MSI GeForce RTX 30 Series cards that have shipped out since the beginning of production, which include media review samples, feature the PCB configurations as shown in the updated images below.

(UPDATE 28SEPT 16H31 GMT: Updated the MSI section with changes in the RTX 3080 Gaming X Trio store page).

Compounding the limited availability with the crash to desktop issues users have been experiencing with NVIDIA's recent RTX 3080/3090 graphics cards have led to rivers of digital ink being run on NVIDIA's latest RTX-30 series. After we've reported on NVIDIA's PG132 "Base Design" and manufacturer-specific capacitor choices and circuitry, we've now seen many of NVIDIA's AIC partners actually respond to this issue, clarifying their choices in this specific part of RTX 30-series board design, as well as the steps they've taken (if any) so as to help solve the issues (which are thus confirmed as being somewhat related to these capacitor choices, even if they are not the root cause.)

Igor's Lab has posted an interesting investigative article where he advances a possible reason for the recent crash to desktop problems for RTX 3080 owners. For one, Igor mentions how the launch timings were much tighter than usual, with NVIDIA AIB partners having much less time than would be adequate to prepare and thoroughly test their designs. One of the reasons this apparently happened was that NVIDIA released the compatible driver stack much later than usual for AIB partners; this meant that their actual testing and QA for produced RTX 3080 graphics cards was mostly limited to power on and voltage stability testing, other than actual gaming/graphics workload testing, which might have allowed for some less-than-stellar chip samples to be employed on some of the companies' OC products (which, with higher operating frequencies and consequent broadband frequency mixtures, hit the apparent 2 GHz frequency wall that produces the crash to desktop).

Another reason for this, according to Igor, is the actual "reference board" PG132 design, which is used as a reference, "Base Design" for partners to architecture their custom cards around. The thing here is that apparently NVIDIA's BOM left open choices in terms of power cleanup and regulation in the mounted capacitors. The Base Design features six mandatory capacitors for filtering high frequencies on the voltage rails (NVVDD and MSVDD). There are a number of choices for capacitors to be installed here, with varying levels of capability. POSCAPs (Conductive Polymer Tantalum Solid Capacitors) are generally worse than SP-CAPs (Conductive Polymer-Aluminium-Electrolytic-Capacitors) which are superseded in quality by MLCCs (Multilayer Ceramic Chip Capacitor, which have to be deployed in groups). Below is the circuitry arrangement employed below the BGA array where NVIDIA's GA-102 chip is seated, which corresponds to the central area on the back of the PCB.