Thursday, March 29th 2018

AMD Corrects Analyst's Cryptomining Revenue Estimate in Defense of Its Share Value

AMD has gone on to publicly call attention to what it considers to be erroneous information put forward by Susquehanna analyst Christopher Roland. The analyst's report, which prompted the reclassification of AMD and NVIDIA's share targets - and investment ratings. Looking to stem what could translate to lower confidence from investors in its share outlook for the future, AMD has now gone on to clarify that mining revenue actually accounts for single-digit amounts entering the company's coffers, and not the 20% previously mentioned by the analyst.

AMD was dealt a worse hand than NVIDIA on Cristopher Rolland's analysis, since the perceived AMD exposition to a negative downturn on the GPU cryptocurrency mining market (kickstarted by the expected entrance in the market of Ethereum-specific ASICs) was double that of NVIDIA (20% on the former versus 10% on the latter). As such, the company has tried to remind customers, investors, and would-be investors that they appreciate the time and attention that investors continue to pay to Blockchain and cryptocurrency, but "(...) we [AMD] would also like to keep it in perspective with the multiple other growth opportunities ahead for AMD." You can read the AMD statement in full after the break, under the title "The View from Our Corner of the Street".
"Yesterday a report was published on AMD which hypothesized very high revenue for Ethereum-related GPU sales. As a reminder, on our Q4'17 earnings conference call we stated that the percentage of annual revenue related to Blockchain was approximately mid-single digit percentage in 2017. We had significant growth in the GPU business outside of Blockchain in Q4'17 as we ramped our Radeon Vega products, our GPU compute products, and our Apple business. We also spoke about strength across the rest of our business with AMD Ryzen and AMD EPYC product momentum. We have very compelling long-term drivers for the company including PCs, servers and graphics and our Q1 2018 financial guidance reflects that.

We appreciate the time and attention that investors continue to pay to Blockchain and cryptocurrency, but would also like to keep it in perspective with the multiple other growth opportunities ahead for AMD."
Source: AMD News Releases
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32 Comments on AMD Corrects Analyst's Cryptomining Revenue Estimate in Defense of Its Share Value

#1
Casecutter
The information not making production cost came out of when they were having to start production for Apple... yes.
At this time (and basically since the initial reference build) the complete package (chip, memory, interposer) is indicated to have costs in-line with the original projections. Stop peddling that old recycled crap.

Also, you obviously don't understand the business... AMD (Nvidia) negotiates with AIB's to set a price to supply chips/package, AMD can't just change price until that contact is fulfill. Normally they set price stronger for new releases and prices are designed (morally the more pedestrian silicone) to tapper back as the market is saturated and mature. AMD didn't make as this article indicates but pennies more on silicone production, but they can't jack it at will. That said, for Vega they would be smart as the can't control memory price (just like any AIB) probably pass along any increase of that in supplying that Vega package.
Posted on Reply
#2
Vya Domus
Fabio
If it wasn't for the crypto amd would have sell all vega card under the production cost...
Nope , Vega was sold with minimal margins , even if they sold a crap ton of them the profit is still small. Polaris was the big money generator.
Posted on Reply
#3
Fabio
Vya Domus
Nope , Vega was sold with minimal margins , even if they sold a crap ton of them the profit is still small. Polaris was the big money generator.
and polaris, for the pricee it was supposed to have, about 200 for the RX580 8GB it could have been a far better deal then vega
Posted on Reply
#4
Imsochobo
Fabio
LOL criptosh*t minig was the f**** savior of amd graphic dep. If it wasn't for the crypto amd would have sell all vega card under the production cost...
AMD STILL sells vega's at msrp, if that is under production cost no mining helps them, prices have NOT increased due to mining and there are the vendors and aib's that bring prices up, NOT AMD and Nvidia.

AMD is fine without mining.
Posted on Reply
#5
silentbogo
That's not correcting, that's denial, just like last year and the year before that.
Always sticking to a script: "Crypto is too small to waste time on planning for it", "Crypto is short-lived, so we don't want to risk", "Crypto is only a single-percentile part of our business and it won't affect our stock". They honestly think that RTG made almost a billion USD last quarter from empty store shelves and non-existing MI25 accelerators... :banghead:
Posted on Reply
#6
Fabio
Imsochobo
AMD STILL sells vega's at msrp, if that is under production cost no mining helps them, prices have NOT increased due to mining and there are the vendors and aib's that bring prices up, NOT AMD and Nvidia.

AMD is fine without mining.
there are weeks mining became something far of a remunerative practice. buy a card and wait for 16 month to be repayed lol.
But prices still skyrocket, dunno if it cause of reseller or ddr shortage, but that's it.
c mon, nobody will buy vega even at 500 if at the same price there is a gtx 1080...
Posted on Reply
#7
Vya Domus
Fabio
nobody will buy vega even at 500 if at the same price there is a gtx 1080...
Guess what , they did. Vega was mostly out of stock even before it got engulfed by the mining craze.
Posted on Reply
#8
Fabio
Vya Domus
Guess what , they did. Vega was mostly out of stock even before it got engulfed by the mining craze.
because of high demand or because of low demand and very very low availability?
Posted on Reply
#9
Vya Domus
Fabio
because of high demand or because of low demand and very very low availability?
Well , the demand was there without question , otherwise they wouldn't have disappeared from the shelves so fast. As far as availability , pretty much the same as it was with Pascal , they didn't have piles of cards available at launch either. Low availability is pretty much guaranteed upon launch with every CPU/GPU within the last few years.
Posted on Reply
#10
Mescalamba
Just wait what happens during next crypto bull run. :D Might take a while tho..
Posted on Reply
#11
JB_Gamer
Fabio
there are weeks mining became something far of a remunerative practice. buy a card and wait for 16 month to be repayed lol.
But prices still skyrocket, dunno if it cause of reseller or ddr shortage, but that's it.
c mon, nobody will buy vega even at 500 if at the same price there is a gtx 1080...
I did, and I'm quite happy with that.
Posted on Reply
#12
Fatalfury
AMD likes to always sail in their ship of lies..
1) first they said vega was delayed to produce enough stock & meet gamers demand...yet they failed to kepp nominal stock
before crypto took over later..
2)they again said amd was not affected by meltdown or spectre vulnerabilities.. then they silently said very little impact & so on..
3)everybody knows cryptocoin was the only thing that saved amd'a$$ in 2017 because raja scrwed everybody & ran over everyone with the failed vega train..in the GPU side.

well we just have to wait & see when cryptomining is no longer profitable..then lets see what AMD says then...
Posted on Reply
#13
Fabio
Fatalfury
AMD likes to always sail in their ship of lies..
1) first they said vega was delayed to produce enough stock & meet gamers demand...yet they failed to kepp nominal stock
before crypto took over later..
2)they again said amd was not affected by meltdown or spectre vulnerabilities.. then they silently said very little impact & so on..
3)everybody knows cryptocoin was the only thing that saved amd'a$$ in 2017 because raja scrwed everybody & ran over everyone with the failed vega train..in the GPU side.

well we just have to wait & see when cryptomining is no longer profitable..then lets see what AMD says then...
This, and not to mention advertised features that are disabled in the final product like primitive shader and other...
Posted on Reply
#14
Vya Domus
Fabio
This, and not to mention advertised features that are disabled in the final product like primitive shader and other...
Fatalfury
AMD likes to always sail in their ship of lies..
1) first they said vega was delayed to produce enough stock & meet gamers demand...yet they failed to kepp nominal stock
before crypto took over later..
2)they again said amd was not affected by meltdown or spectre vulnerabilities.. then they silently said very little impact & so on..
3)everybody knows cryptocoin was the only thing that saved amd'a$$ in 2017 because raja scrwed everybody & ran over everyone with the failed vega train..in the GPU side.

well we just have to wait & see when cryptomining is no longer profitable..then lets see what AMD says then...
Ya'll really don't want to stop with the FUD , do you ?
Posted on Reply
#15
Fabio
Vya Domus
Ya'll really don't want to stop with the FUD , do you ?
but it is not about FUD, c'mon be realistic... Initialy vega card was so few, and card by card, one by one, as they were arrived in resellers warehouse they were gobbled by cryptominer. So they always been very low on stock , and no matter if they where shipped regulary, the reseller keep prices up...
AMD could at least open a direct shop where sell gpu at msrp just like nvidia. But no....
So, for what i care, amd have to face the consecuences of their behavior
Posted on Reply
#16
Casecutter
I'll just say, when some nice AIB partner Vega 56 finally get back to like under $400 there are plenty of gamers who will be ready for them.
Posted on Reply
#17
Fabio
Casecutter
I'll just say, when some nice AIB partner Vega 56 finally get back to like under $400 there are plenty of gamers who will be ready for them.
i think the day vega drop under 400 new nvidia gpu will be already on the shelf...
Posted on Reply
#18
tvamos
Fabio
i think the day vega drop under 400 new nvidia gpu will be already on the shelf...
So what? Not everybody likes supporting nvidia. I would buy vega when they drop in price, its not like amd gpus are bad its just nvidia has better. But I couldn't care less.
Posted on Reply
#19
Casecutter
"Q4'17 earnings conference call we stated that the percentage of annual revenue related to Blockchain was approximately mid-single digit percentage in 2017."

Let's not get off track here... A company can stretch a "goal" in conference call, but as to revenue (especially that already reported) to lie/mislead would place them in real legal jeopardy. So who do you believe these two "analyst" who are not bound (legally) by any B.S. they can float, or a company that could have the full weight of the SCC come down on them?

IMO it does seem there's a consorted effort to de-value AMD stock.
Posted on Reply
#20
Fluffmeister
While it's good they won't take a massive hit if and when the mining bubble deflates, it must also be disappointing they only saw a mid-single digit increase in revenue with all their cards selling like hot cakes.
Posted on Reply
#21
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
I tend to believe AMD on this one considering I can't even find an RX 550 for reasonable prices. AMD simply did not respond to mining; hence, the graphics card shortage. AMD is certain they could have sold most of the cards produced regardless of mining.

The bulk of AMD revenue is coming from CPU sales. The 2400G has a better GPU than the RX 550 for not much less than the RX 550. And it's a CPU too.
Casecutter
IMO it does seem there's a consorted effort to de-value AMD stock.
Yup, the way the CTS-Labs thing rolled out showed that intention too.
Posted on Reply
#22
Casecutter
Here's my thinking on that. AMD has only so much 14nm wafer production with GloFlo. Being Ryzen moved to the 12nm (what I/we don't know is how many of the same tool/machines might be common for both) there perhaps means more 14nm wafer production. AMD has all their production at GloFlo and I think they've been at/above max capacity. That good thing... while hard to boost revenue in component sales, using all your capacity and hit/exceeding targets told to investors, it's what you ask for when investing.
Posted on Reply
#23
evernessince
Fabio
but it is not about FUD, c'mon be realistic... Initialy vega card was so few, and card by card, one by one, as they were arrived in resellers warehouse they were gobbled by cryptominer. So they always been very low on stock , and no matter if they where shipped regulary, the reseller keep prices up...
AMD could at least open a direct shop where sell gpu at msrp just like nvidia. But no....
So, for what i care, amd have to face the consecuences of their behavior
Do you have overall sales numbers for Vega? Didn't think so, stop with the assumptions.

Unlike Nvidia, AMD can't afford to screw over it's AIBs by selling directly. You do realize that the last company before Nvidia to try that went out of business because AIBs left them. Nvidia can do it because it has the GPU market by the balls.
Posted on Reply
#24
InVasMani
FordGT90Concept
I tend to believe AMD on this one considering I can't even find an RX 550 for reasonable prices. AMD simply did not respond to mining; hence, the graphics card shortage. AMD is certain they could have sold most of the cards produced regardless of mining.

The bulk of AMD revenue is coming from CPU sales. The 2400G has a better GPU than the RX 550 for not much less than the RX 550. And it's a CPU too.


Yup, the way the CTS-Labs thing rolled out showed that intention too.
I nearly bought a RX580 8GB before the prices skyrocketed. I sort of regret it now, but it's all good I can wait til next generation of cards arrive.
Posted on Reply
#25
jigar2speed
Seems someone one is looking ways to devalue AMD stock and finally buy AMD, no wonder their stocks have been attacked lately.
Posted on Reply
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