Sunday, September 24th 2017

More Buyers for AMD Due to Intel CPU Shortages, OEMs Unhappy

Intel is hit by crippling inventory shortages for many of its fast-selling 8th generation Core desktop processor SKUs. A number of factors are contributing to these shortages, as we discussed in this article. A key short-term consequence of shortages in Intel's inventories is more uninitiated buyers discovering AMD processors, now that they've achieved the highest levels of competitiveness against Intel in over a decade. Stock market analyst firm Jefferies has raised AMD's outlook for Q4-2018, and projects that its $30 stock price could hit $36, by raising its target price.

OEMs are not happy with Intel. Haphazard roadmap and platform changes have forced them to revise their product designs way too frequently, and now they're faced with the prospect of a short-supply. A report from research firm Fubon predicts that by next year, 1 in every 3 personal computers sold by HP (Hewlett Packard) will run an AMD processor. "Fubon's report that Intel will undersupply the PC market between 4Q18 and 2Q19 leaves us with higher conviction that AMD will report improving revenue, pricing and margins near term, and that is positioned to take share in the high end PC MPU and server market long term," said stock market analyst Mark Lipacis. He predicts that AMD's CPU market-share climbing to 30% through next year (a very huge feat for AMD).
Source: HotHardware
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44 Comments on More Buyers for AMD Due to Intel CPU Shortages, OEMs Unhappy

#1
hat
Enthusiast
Yikes. So much for the idea that Intel is having shortages because they're so great they can't keep their stuff in stock. Looks like there really is great trouble at the Intel foundries (as if the related TSMC story wasn't enough). Good for AMD, though.
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#2
kastriot
Good good, AMD continue like this in the near 7nm future..
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#3
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
At first I thought 33% was too low of a forecast then I remembered that AMD is now dependent on TSMC's ability to produce. AMD can run into supply problems too because of that relationship.
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#4
hat
Enthusiast
FordGT90Concept said:
At first I thought 33% was too low of a forecast then I remembered that AMD is now dependent on TSMC's ability to produce. AMD can run into supply problems too because of that relationship.
TSMC is going to have a lot of work to do, that's for sure...
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#5
btarunr
Editor & Senior Moderator
FordGT90Concept said:
At first I thought 33% was too low of a forecast then I remembered that AMD is now dependent on TSMC's ability to produce. AMD can run into supply problems too because of that relationship.
Right now people are drawn to the AMD chips that are fabbed in Upstate NY. I don't think Zen 2 will reach client-segment before mid-2019, and by then TSMC 7 nm will go critical. AMD can always cannibalize its 7 nm GPU allocation to make more CPUs. I have a hunch that they'll seek out other 7 nm foundries as well.
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#6
R0H1T
This at a time when AMD still haven't fully populated their desktop/laptop portfolio. Imagine the results if they'd have had a competing product for Intel in every segment.
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#7
Shamalamadingdong
btarunr said:
Right now people are drawn to the AMD chips that are fabbed in Upstate NY. I don't think Zen 2 will reach client-segment before mid-2019, and by then TSMC 7 nm will go critical. AMD can always cannibalize its 7 nm GPU allocation to make more CPUs. I have a hunch that they'll seek out other 7 nm foundries as well.
That would be Samsung. No other choices. Generally Samsung hasn't been as good as TSMC though so it could cause problems.
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#8
Imsochobo
Shamalamadingdong said:
That would be Samsung. No other choices. Generally Samsung hasn't been as good as TSMC though so it could cause problems.
Amd will utilize Glofo for 14nm and lower, That being controller die's, chipset etc which is still quite high volume.
Rumors say offdie memory,pci-e etc controller for the chiplet design while cores are 7nm and absolutely tiny chips to increase yield and throughput so I don't believe there will be a major issue if those rumors are true.
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#9
Liviu Cojocaru
Maybe this will help AMD to invest a bit more in the GPU segment and create some competitive cards :)
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#10
zelnep
good to know, because I need and want upgrade and was entertaining idea about i9-9900k or i7-9700k and was like: "ok, I know Ryzen 2700X is and will be better value, but I will wait for these intel reviews and see how I feel about it" but now ( from all I red in last few weeks) - thx intel for making this choice much more clear and easy now :rolleyes:. now the only question for my upgrade "problem" is: can I wait for Zen 2 (can we peak a Epyc benches soon and conclude something how good Zen 2 will be?) or to grab 2700X now?
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#11
punani
kastriot said:
Good good, AMD continue like this in the near 7nm future..
Teams are soon in perfect balance. As they should be.
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#12
hat
Enthusiast
Makes me wonder who's buying all this stuff, though... these places are constantly cranking out products, where are they all going?
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#13
Upgrayedd
Anybody here get in on the stock when it was at like $1.67 a few years ago?
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#14
medi01
Does shortage have anything to do with... cough, lower prices per core?

Liviu Cojocaru said:
Maybe this will help AMD to invest a bit more in the GPU segment and create some competitive cards :)
Yeah, but no thanks, I'd rather they focus on CPUs and Huang kills PC market and boosts consoles with ngreediness.

Upgrayedd said:
Anybody here get in on the stock when it was at like $1.67 a few years ago?
No, although I remember price at around 1.8$. Everything looked bad back then, Zen was yet to be seen and GPU front was a disaster too.
On the other hand, mcap was soo low, that one could have said, hell, patents alone cost more and took the bait.
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#15
R0H1T
punani said:
Teams are soon in perfect balance. As they should be.

Wait till Avengers 4 :pimp:
hat said:
Makes me wonder who's buying all this stuff, though... these places are constantly cranking out products, where are they all going?
OEM, ODM, HPC & even cloud vendors might be stockpiling some of these products in anticipation of a price hike/tariffs so it might create an artificial shortage in the short to medium term. There's definitely accelerated growth in the PC & server segments (in part due to Ryzen) but not as much so as to make Intel scramble for cover.
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#16
Mr.Origami696
PAYBACK TIME!! (Duke Nukem's Theme by Megadeath starts...)
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#17
Vayra86
Liviu Cojocaru said:
Maybe this will help AMD to invest a bit more in the GPU segment and create some competitive cards :)
Any new investment done today will probably start paying off 3-5 years from now so... yeah :D

Either way these shortages, for all those people cheering at it, are no good for any of us. If Intel can't deliver AMD will raise prices or at least be less inclined to lower them. On top of that its creating a fake inflated interest for AMD product - no longer on the basis of the product being the choice, but rather because there are no other options. While this can help AMD, it can also backfire. Look at Nvidia's stock of Pascal cards for a good example of that.
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#18
XiGMAKiD
Good for AMD, another proof that their strategy for Ryzen is solid
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#19
Shamalamadingdong
Imsochobo said:
Amd will utilize Glofo for 14nm and lower, That being controller die's, chipset etc which is still quite high volume.
Rumors say offdie memory,pci-e etc controller for the chiplet design while cores are 7nm and absolutely tiny chips to increase yield and throughput so I don't believe there will be a major issue if those rumors are true.
We're talking about 7nm. There are only two 7nm foundries: TSMC and Samsung so your correction makes little sense. And it's very optimistic to expect chiplet designs when we aren't there yet. The rumors are about massive off-die LLC. However you're adding latency when moving things off-die even if they're in close proximity. So consumer designs where Samsung might make sense do not benefit from bandwidth and capacities as much - often low latency is better.
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#20
HTC
From what i understand, the whole problem was brought by the 10nm failing to start mass producing on schedule: the stuff that was being produced in older nodes (larger then 14nm) started to move to 14nm but what was supposed to move from 14nm to 10nm didn't, and that created a bottleneck where a vast majority of Intel's products are 14nm.

They have fab(s) tied to producing 10nm which can't yet because they still haven't sorted out the problem with their 10nm process but don't have enough fabs for all the 14nm products they currently produce: the fact that the current gen and next gen are being done in 14nm instead of 10nm only exacerbates the problem.

No wonder they are having shortages!
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#21
Robcostyle
Wait a moment......but AMD CPUs are also at a price rise.

So now AMD is being sold by intel prices, while Intel tries out ngreedia tactics. Well done, capitalism! Screw the competition, screw all regulating institutes! Lets completely milk the customers dry!
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#22
medi01
Robcostyle said:
So now AMD is being sold by intel prices
Robcostyle said:
AMD CPUs are also at a price rise.
Yeah, right, but no:

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#23
oxidized
punani said:
Teams are soon in perfect balance. As they should be.
"As they should be"
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#24
Robcostyle
medi01 said:
Yeah, right, but no:


Lol, I though clever people should attach screenshots with prices from amazon, newegg, cu.de or whatever your local dealer is.

2700X is 329$ in us already. Waiting 350$ in couple of weeks
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#25
Imsochobo
Shamalamadingdong said:
We're talking about 7nm. There are only two 7nm foundries: TSMC and Samsung so your correction makes little sense. And it's very optimistic to expect chiplet designs when we aren't there yet. The rumors are about massive off-die LLC. However you're adding latency when moving things off-die even if they're in close proximity. So consumer designs where Samsung might make sense do not benefit from bandwidth and capacities as much - often low latency is better.
Off die memory access is already done today on TR and Epyc without any Huge concern, it will actually bring latency uniformity to all latencies except cross die L3 cache which will improve AMD's standing in the server space as it will operate with 100% shared memory rather than numa nodes. make it easier to optimize, consistent performance etc.
I see it as a very doable solution.

Latency is a concern and if so it might be a big seller for enterprise but less for gamers.

Robcostyle said:
Lol, I though clever people should attach screenshots with prices from amazon, newegg, cu.de or whatever your local dealer is.

2700X is 329$ in us already. Waiting 350$ in couple of weeks
Prices have dropped well below MSRP in Norway on 2700X.
while 8700K is way up there now.
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