Friday, December 14th 2018

NVIDIA's Stock Has Been Plunging Since October; Softbank Reported to be Looking for a Way Out

The stock markets are the financial equivalent of a fickle mistress. Just ask NVIDIA. The company has, in recent months, introduced their Turing architecture and derived products - a move NVIDIA deemed such a significant leap over its previous generations that it prompted a change from the GTX of old to a new RTX moniker. The company's latest financial results also reported a 21% increase in revenue YoY, and a 2% increase relative to the last quarter. Despite this and increased cash dividends being delivered to the hands of investors, festive must not be NVIDIA's mind right now.

The dive, which practically halved the company's stock valuation since October, moving from an all-time peak of $289.36 on October 1, to just under $149 (a 48.8% decline). This fall has mostly been attributed to the crypto slump, which left NVIDIA with excess inventory in its channels and may have pushed some of the company's plans for their 2000 series over the edge - particularly in the midrange graphics department. However, overall reception of their RTX 2000-series cards wasn't all that glamorous - and that surely moved investors' minds as well. Now, it appears that Softbank, one of the tech world's giants, is pulling its weight from NVIDIA and racking in a $3 billion profit, as is being reported by numerous outlets. Apparently, the deal isn't finalized as of writing, but that must be rocking NVIDIA's boat all the same. Sources: Bloomberg, via TechSpot
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71 Comments on NVIDIA's Stock Has Been Plunging Since October; Softbank Reported to be Looking for a Way Out

#1
xkm1948
Crypto mining took off, gamers suffer. Crypto mining collapse, GPU maker suffer.

Conclusion: kill crypto mining with extreme prejudice
Posted on Reply
#2
Vya Domus
I remember an interview with Huang when he was talking how important the evaluation of your company's stock is. Well, about that ...
Posted on Reply
#3
FreedomEclipse
~Technological Technocrat~
IMO, Nvidia should of kept low-key about Ray Tracing and DLSS and attempted to change the industry from the software side first rather than just dropping it like a bomb and expecting the whole world to give them a round of applause and standing ovation.

If Nvidia had been slowly pushing developers to pick up Ray Tracing then at least people who bought RTX cards from the moment they were released wouldnt feel like theyve been short changed.

2080 came out and no games supported this wonderful amazing feature that Nvidia had been harping about and at best the only software support was a benchmark or a tech demo...

they should of held back until software support was more substantial. People will always remember the first release of the RTX in a negative light as it being ludicrously expensive compared to the previous generation and not really out performing the previous generation either.

Like my manager always says.... you can do a million things correctly and nobody will remember it. but the moment you do one thing wrong, they will remember that one thing forever.
Posted on Reply
#4
R-T-B
xkm1948, post: 3960644, member: 50521"
Crypto mining took off, gamers suffer. Crypto mining collapse, GPU maker suffer.

Conclusion: kill crypto mining with extreme prejudice
They'll just find something else irrational to invest in...
Posted on Reply
#5
Vya Domus
I don't think this massive plunge in stock price had much to do with their gaming products and their reception. Nvidia has tried for years to convince everyone they're going to be huge in the automotive and data-center sectors but here we are years later and they didn't think twice about openly taking the plunge with elusive markets like crypto mining. Big investors pay attention to these sorts of things and they don't forget/forgive.
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#6
the54thvoid
Neither AMD nor Nvidia control their stock price - it is entirely investment driven. That Nvidia and AMD pushed resources into pumping out more gfx cards for mining was inevitable, given the investment in shares it brought. Crypto was like steroids for Nvidia and AMD. But it was not of their doing. Things are simply normalising now.

EDIT: and Softbank is an investment firm - they know when to ride and when to cash out. It's only a pointer to the demise of gfx card mining.
Posted on Reply
#7
silentbogo
xkm1948, post: 3960644, member: 50521"
Crypto mining took off, gamers suffer. Crypto mining collapse, GPU maker suffer.

Conclusion: kill crypto mining with extreme prejudice
I don't think (at least personally) it has anything to do with Crypto.
A couple of years back Softbank and several other tech giants have invested lots of money into AI and AI-related industries (through their Vision Fund, and with some help from Saudi's PIF).
Most of these fields conflict with what's NVidia been doing for the past few years.
So, even though Softbank owns 5% of NVidia, they are probably more content with "cutting losses" by selling NV stock at pretty much the same price of what they paid back in 2017, and trashing it even further on the stock market to get some freedom in pushing their own agenda in the field of AI.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/samshead/2018/08/06/softbank-billionaire-devoting-97-of-time-and-brain-to-ai/#23733d69537d
Posted on Reply
#8
natr0n
Nvidia cant ray trace their way out of this one.
Posted on Reply
#9
bug
silentbogo, post: 3960669, member: 141875"
So, even though Softbank owns 5% of NVidia, they are probably more content with "cutting losses" by selling NV stock at pretty much the same price of what they paid back in 2017, and trashing it even further on the stock market to get some freedom in pushing their own agenda in the field of AI.
Hm, where do I invest so I can make $3bn cutting my losses? ;)
Posted on Reply
#10
yakk
As mentioned in a news post a few weeks ago... it'll get a lot worst for nvidia in Q1 next year and institutional investors still holding this stock are seeing this and need to exit, fast.

Crypto has little to do with this. BAD BUSINESS DECISIONS have everything to do with this.
Posted on Reply
#11
The Quim Reaper
Oh dear, what a shame, never mind.

If ever a company was in need of a good kicking, Nvidia is it.
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#12
moproblems99
xkm1948, post: 3960644, member: 50521"
Crypto mining took off, gamers suffer. Crypto mining collapse, GPU maker suffer.

Conclusion: kill crypto mining with extreme prejudice
I'm pretty sure no GPU makers were harmed in the making of the crypto boom. Only AIBs, who were banking heavily for quite a while. The crypto boom should have had little negative impacts if they had used any sort of logical forecasting techniques.

In the grander scheme, the whole GPU boom impacted relatively few people. Only those too stoopid, too impatient, or didn't care. There were largely GPUs available at normal prices for much of the time if you made any sort of effort.
Posted on Reply
#13
eidairaman1
The Exiled Airman
FreedomEclipse, post: 3960649, member: 38411"
IMO, Nvidia should of kept low-key about Ray Tracing and DLSS and attempted to change the industry from the software side first rather than just dropping it like a bomb and expecting the whole world to give them a round of applause and standing ovation.

If Nvidia had been slowly pushing developers to pick up Ray Tracing then at least people who bought RTX cards from the moment they were released wouldnt feel like theyve been short changed.

2080 came out and no games supported this wonderful amazing feature that Nvidia had been harping about and at best the only software support was a benchmark or a tech demo...

they should of held back until software support was more substantial. People will always remember the first release of the RTX in a negative light as it being ludicrously expensive compared to the previous generation and not really out performing the previous generation either.

Like my manager always says.... you can do a million things correctly and nobody will remember it. but the moment you do one thing wrong, they will remember that one thing forever.
Physx comes to mind.
Posted on Reply
#14
cucker tarlson
FreedomEclipse, post: 3960649, member: 38411"
IMO, Nvidia should of kept low-key about Ray Tracing and DLSS and attempted to change the industry from the software side first rather than just dropping it like a bomb and expecting the whole world to give them a round of applause and standing ovation.
"Who wants some Huang"




true,way I see turing is more like a card for developers to build on,though acceptable framerates can be managed with proper optimization as was seen in latest bf5 patch.
Posted on Reply
#15
Darmok N Jalad
Maybe they just see the market as played out for a while. Turing seems to have a lukewarm reception, and there’s no guarantee that RT will take off because NVIDIA wants it to. They may dominate PC sales, but AMD makes the console SOCs, and developers (that are hopefully fixing bugs) may not be willing to put extra time into a solution that only a small number of customers will enjoy. Until the gaming market as a whole adopts this, it will just be a novelty, and I don’t see next gen consoles having the power to handle it anyway.
Posted on Reply
#16
Shihabyooo
FreedomEclipse, post: 3960649, member: 38411"
IMO, Nvidia should of kept low-key about Ray Tracing and DLSS and attempted to change the industry from the software side first rather than just dropping it like a bomb and expecting the whole world to give them a round of applause and standing ovation.

If Nvidia had been slowly pushing developers to pick up Ray Tracing then at least people who bought RTX cards from the moment they were released wouldnt feel like theyve been short changed.

2080 came out and no games supported this wonderful amazing feature that Nvidia had been harping about and at best the only software support was a benchmark or a tech demo...

they should of held back until software support was more substantial. People will always remember the first release of the RTX in a negative light as it being ludicrously expensive compared to the previous generation and not really out performing the previous generation either.

Like my manager always says.... you can do a million things correctly and nobody will remember it. but the moment you do one thing wrong, they will remember that one thing forever.
Raytracing isn't a simple post-processing filter you can make feasible with just software work. Go that route you've proposed and you're just creating a circular problem: Devs won't release RTRT renderers because it's not feasible because no hardware can run it, no hardware for RTRT will be made because no software for it exists, software won't be created because no hardware exists, ad infinitum.
What Nvidia did, no matter how many "WTFs!" and "Greedy bastards!" I've personally exclaimed, was an attempt that really deserves an applause (even if it wasn't the most economically efficient route). Releasing the RTX cards broke that cyclical problem and left the ball entirely in the game/engine/renderer developers' field.

And I don't really think any early adopter of a cutting-edge tech that is clearly in its infancy should complain about being "short changed."
Posted on Reply
#17
trparky
cucker tarlson, post: 3960724, member: 173472"
though acceptable framerates can be managed with proper optimization as was seen in latest bf5 patch.
I read somewhere that they turned down the graphics quality to achieve those better frame rates. That kind of sucks.
Posted on Reply
#18
theoneandonlymrk
cucker tarlson, post: 3960724, member: 173472"
"Who wants some Huang"




true,way I see turing is more like a card for developers to build on,though acceptable framerates can be managed with proper optimization as was seen in latest bf5 patch.
That would be fine If it were the case, but there sold as consumer(at high prices) with 3 bits of software to demo them with , sold seperatly.

I think the writing is on the wall ,AI driven cars are a liability that wont end up happening for a while (since they drive like crap)and it's not soon enough to massage Nvidias investment into it.

Their out of consoles bar Nintendo and their liable for fecking Nintendo's security on that console (Nintendo love their security), i doubt Nintendo took the tab for the rework for switch 1b

Most web servers are making their own ai options Or their is something cheaper from someone else.

They flat out failed at Mobile, and can't sell enough tegras for TVs (sheild) to get rid of t2s

And they can only make arm core processors, but not better then Qualcomm for example or apple.

They've had time in a few of these markets, enough to count for a lead in them yet they didn't make enough of one.
Posted on Reply
#19
bogami
I hope that we will have some of this because the price of GPU products did not fall to such a level! Yes and what has been developed by nVidia in recent years, Some software I would say and nothing more, VOLTA is not a new product and so I'm not surprised. The relationship is baad, with which they sells more requirements than the product ! All is consequently and then a product that is so abnormally expensive, breaks down in operation, not to mention the new and many bugs! The overrating of the past years has to showe somewhere.
Posted on Reply
#20
Darmok N Jalad
Shihabyooo, post: 3960740, member: 91709"
Raytracing isn't a simple post-processing filter you can make feasible with just software work. Go that route you've proposed and you're just creating a circular problem: Devs won't release RTRT renderers because it's not feasible because no hardware can run it, no hardware for RTRT will be made because no software for it exists, software won't be created because no hardware exists, ad infinitum.
What Nvidia did, no matter how many "WTFs!" and "Greedy bastards!" I've personally exclaimed, was an attempt that really deserves an applause (even if it wasn't the most economically efficient route). Releasing the RTX cards broke that cyclical problem and left the ball entirely in the game/engine/renderer developers' field.

And I don't really think any early adopter of a cutting-edge tech that is clearly in its infancy should complain about being "short changed."
Exactly. They launched new hardware that can only really be used if a game supports it, otherwise it’s a pretty expensive upgrade. Really, I’m not sure what they can do about this, short of giving AAA developers early hardware and then only release the cards when a decent list of games is ready. Otherwise your best customers (ones willing to spend top dollar on day one) are buying a 1.0 product with little to show for it. It’s possible this first line of RTX cards won’t really be good enough and that next gen will have the proper/usable configuration of RT hardware.
Posted on Reply
#21
Vayra86
Vya Domus, post: 3960653, member: 169281"
I don't think this massive plunge in stock price had much to do with their gaming products and their reception. Nvidia has tried for years to convince everyone they're going to be huge in the automotive and data-center sectors but here we are years later and they didn't think twice about openly taking the plunge with elusive markets like crypto mining. Big investors pay attention to these sorts of things and they don't forget/forgive.
This, exactly. Tesla already pulled out. Crypto is just a small part of their problems.
Posted on Reply
#22
AsRock
TPU addict
yakk, post: 3960680, member: 158293"
As mentioned in a news post a few weeks ago... it'll get a lot worst for nvidia in Q1 next year and institutional investors still holding this stock are seeing this and need to exit, fast.

Crypto has little to do with this. BAD BUSINESS DECISIONS have everything to do with this.
You understand a hell lot of people were buying GTX cards and now the RTX is out at a greater cost of which the GTX was already expensive in the first place, and to add to it it supports some thing that is not available and even if it was available cannot do it on a large scale.

A lot will just buy secondhand.
Posted on Reply
#23
Ravenmaster
Well, this is what you get for screwing over your customers and your board partners. The performance gains from GTX 1080Ti to the RTX 2080 were almost non-existent. Yet they sold the RTX 2080 at a higher price than the GTX 1080Ti. As for the RTX 2080Ti, high failure rates + a massive price gouge left a bad taste in many long time Nvidia fans' mouthes. And after dumping a ton of unwanted GTX overstock onto their partners, its no wonder people are getting sick of their shit.
Posted on Reply
#24
Sasqui
the54thvoid, post: 3960658, member: 79251"
Neither AMD nor Nvidia control their stock price - it is entirely investment driven. That Nvidia and AMD pushed resources into pumping out more gfx cards for mining was inevitable, given the investment in shares it brought. Crypto was like steroids for Nvidia and AMD. But it was not of their doing. Things are simply normalising now.

EDIT: and Softbank is an investment firm - they know when to ride and when to cash out. It's only a pointer to the demise of gfx card mining.
Well put, and no doubt the crypto hangover has only begun for them. Just speculating here, but NVDA Q3 numbers looked better than reality, they were playing shell games with inventory and probably still are. It remains to be seen what the numbers look like for Q4, they come out in Feb, so it's all a waiting game right now... while watching crypto markets continue to slowly implode.
Posted on Reply
#25
HTC
silentbogo, post: 3960669, member: 141875"
I don't think (at least personally) it has anything to do with Crypto.
A couple of years back Softbank and several other tech giants have invested lots of money into AI and AI-related industries (through their Vision Fund, and with some help from Saudi's PIF).
Most of these fields conflict with what's NVidia been doing for the past few years.
So, even though Softbank owns 5% of NVidia, they are probably more content with "cutting losses" by selling NV stock at pretty much the same price of what they paid back in 2017, and trashing it even further on the stock market to get some freedom in pushing their own agenda in the field of AI.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/samshead/2018/08/06/softbank-billionaire-devoting-97-of-time-and-brain-to-ai/#23733d69537d
Something doesn't seem right: they won't be getting "pretty much the same price" because they will in fact make a $3B profit.
Now, it appears that Softbank, one of the tech world's giants, is pulling its weight from NVIDIA and racking in a $3 billion profit, as is being reported by numerous outlets.
Between the "fall of crypto" and the "warm reception" of RTX line of cards, i was expecting some sort of hit to strike nVidia but it never crossed my mind something of this magnitude.
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