Monday, March 11th 2019
Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019
Supplies of Intel processors will worsen in the second quarter of 2019 according to Taiwan-based industry observer DigiTimes. In a research-based report covering not just the DIY channel, but also the OEM channel focusing on notebook manufacturer, DigiTimes notes that heading into Q2, growth in demand for entry-level portables such as Chromebooks based on entry-level Intel processors, and mainstream notebooks powered by Core i3 processors, which make up the largest demographic of PC consumers in the market.
A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
Source:
DigiTimes
A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
72 Comments on Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019
It might hurt their image if they had to admit AMD was making inroads into their once dominant market, so they make up a story to save face as to why they won't be reducing Processor pricing to compete more aggressively.
Business as usual. :roll::roll::roll::roll:
I'm still waiting to see the after affects of those alleged price drops being passed on to the consumer.
So such huge market share gonna be tempt to finally upgrade their PC this year with the new Ryzen 3000 or even Ryzen 1x00/2x00 with high discounts, this market share will be lost for Intel for the next 3 years min + AM4 gonna have also another refresh next years with 7nm+ and it will be much easier to upgrade just the CPU for upto 16c. if upto Quad Core was good enough for them for last 10 years- why shopuld they jump back to intel if they will be using upto 16C Ryzen's?
I also had Q6600 for many years, then i7 860.
Also after AMD gain's enough market share on Descktop PC- then we gonna see more optimization for their CPU's too (ahmm MS and TR 2990WX :) ).
P.S: just saw on Guru3D that TPU listed Zen 2 lineup with released date as March?:
www.techpowerup.com/cpudb/?mfgr=AMD&codename=Zen 2&sort=name
That mean implementation of PCI-E 5.0 and DDR5 will be my next upgrade.
It's very low improvement in real life between chipsets and IMC with DDR4 memory.
I expect 10 core CPU with DDR5 4400+ MHz during first half of 2021.
Good.
Memory not over 400$, motherboard not over 400$, everything else on processor.
Maintaining a process leadership means squat if chip design and production efficiency/capacity falls by the wayside. Its pretty obvious the process R&D team is having too much sway inside Intel and they are undermining the overall interests in the company.
You might be right that the process R&D team has pushed for keeping an impossible goal rather than lowering requirements for the 10nm process, but considering how good 14nm has grown over its revisions, they don't really have a choice. Even best-case roadmaps show 10nm to be mostly inferior to 14nm except for density. Stepping back goals would likely mean scrapping the node entirely.
In a broader perspective, Intel (the CPU/chip maker, not so much the fab owner) has coped with this crisis as well as could be reasonably expected, but they've also pretty much hit the worst case scenario: fab capacity running out long before an upgrade is available, and chip sizes increasing at the same time. The only thing they could have done to make it better would be unplanned large-scale fab upgrades to 14nm, but that would both be a very expensive short term investment (as the entire purpose of it would be to alleviate pressure until 10nm arrives) and cause investors to run for the hills (as it would be a very clear admission that 10nm was nowhere close). Their current plan has two major issues: it pisses off customers (both large and small), and it is still reliant on 10nm arriving soon. The longer 10nm stays out of reach, the more precarious Intel's situation becomes both in terms of product competitiveness, production capacity, and customer goodwill. If this keeps up for another year, I wouldn't be surprised if AMD's market share came close to overtaking them. For now, they can get out of this "unscathed" (only having lost their 3+ year process advantage and a lot of customer/partner goodwill), but in a year? They'd survive (they're Intel, after all), but it would be a bloodbath.
If they'd set fab upgrades in motion in late 2016 or early 2017, they'd be in volume production already - but Intel's stocks would also have taken a significant dive, and the arrival of Ryzen would likely have been much worse for them. Intel gambled (big) on this being a short-term predicament, but they're running dangerously close to losing that bet outright. If they start fab upgrades now they won't be in volume production for at least a year, which won't help them much.
www.notebookcheck.net/Asus-TUF-FX505DY-Ryzen-5-3550H-Radeon-RX-560X-Laptop-Review.412117.0.html