Monday, March 11th 2019

Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019

Supplies of Intel processors will worsen in the second quarter of 2019 according to Taiwan-based industry observer DigiTimes. In a research-based report covering not just the DIY channel, but also the OEM channel focusing on notebook manufacturer, DigiTimes notes that heading into Q2, growth in demand for entry-level portables such as Chromebooks based on entry-level Intel processors, and mainstream notebooks powered by Core i3 processors, which make up the largest demographic of PC consumers in the market.

A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
Source: DigiTimes
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66 Comments on Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019

#2
lexluthermiester
This opens the door for AMD to make inroads to greater market share.
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#3
eidairaman1
The Exiled Airman
lexluthermiester said:
This opens the door for AMD to make inroads to greater market share.
Which all would benefit from
Posted on Reply
#4
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
How...could Intel...let this...happen!?! You'd think the board of directors would be making heads roll at this point. The lack of planning and/or incompetence on their product cycles is on the apocalyptic scale of "fail."

Yeah, I get 10nm is a problem but these are 14-freakin'-nanometer which Intel has been kicking around since 2014!!! :wtf:
[insert all of the facepalm memes here]

:shadedshu:

Edit: I think Intel bet the house on 10nm and...the house burned down. It's like Global Foundries all over again... just a decade later.
Posted on Reply
#5
Sp33d Junki3
my next upgrade is going to by Ryzen. The price for the 2600 $210 is no brainer, when coming from 3770k.
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#6
kastriot
Perfect time for zen 2 3XXX and intel watching in despair.
Posted on Reply
#7
mtcn77
FordGT90Concept said:
How...could Intel...let this...happen!?! You'd think the board of directors would be making heads roll at this point. The lack of planning and/or incompetence on their product cycles is on the apocalyptic scale of "fail."

Yeah, I get 10nm is a problem but these are 14-freakin'-nanometer which Intel has been kicking around since 2014!!! :wtf:
[insert all of the facepalm memes here]

:shadedshu:

Edit: I think Intel bet the house on 10nm and...the house burned down. It's like Global Foundries all over again... just a decade later.
Intel had a do-whatever-I-want attitude. I still believe they do it on purpose as a markup strategy, invitational cpus and all.
Posted on Reply
#8
ixi
mtcn77 said:
Intel had a do-whatever-I-want attitude. I still believe they do it on purpose as a markup strategy, invitational cpus and all.
Same, I do not believe they have problems with supplies. Just being ******* to get more $. Haven't upgraded since I bought 6700k. Which is good. Waiting for ryzen second generation.
Posted on Reply
#9
notb
Bad news for all the "hurray AMD" people. You do understand that "shortage" happens when demand for products is higher than supply, right?

And it's even worse if Intel is doing this on purpose - to raise profit margin. That would mean Ryzen is not an attractive mass product and Intel can apply even more aggressive price policy than in the FX era.
Posted on Reply
#10
Mats
notb said:
And it's even worse if Intel is doing this on purpose - to raise profit margin. That would mean Ryzen is not an attractive mass product and Intel can apply even more aggressive price policy than in the FX era.
At the cost of losing market share? Doesn't sound like a good idea to me. AMD has gained market share from Intel, that's a fact.
From what I understand, Ryzen is popular, and nothing like FX.

Intel could have raised the prices like this back when the competition was down, without risking as much as now. Now is not the time.
Posted on Reply
#11
notb
Mats said:
At the cost of losing market share? Doesn't sound like a good idea to me.
Why do you think they're losing market share because of shortages? Maybe it's about extra CPUs not included in the forecast? :)
AMD has gained market share from Intel, that's a fact.
But not because of these shortages. AMD gained share because they have good products in some segments.
From what I understand, Ryzen is popular
In some segments, yes.
Intel could have raised the prices like this back when the competition was down, without risking as much as now. Now is not the time.
I think they were afraid. AMD holds the key patents to x86. For years they were worth under 10 bln USD. They went as low as 2 bln in 2015 - that's 1/3 of Mallanox - an IT company most people on this forum haven't heard about until last week.
If Intel raised problem back then, how long would it take before someone like Amazon, Microsoft or Google would buy AMD and start making their own CPUs (or even worse: sell them)?

Today, with AMD somehow stable financially and much bigger (23 bln USD), it a different situation.
But AMD is still behind in many aspects. Intel may rise their prices by 10% and that could mean just 1% less market share.
Even if this is just a temporary action (until Zen 2 arrives) that's still a lot of money to be made.
They analyze it and they know best.
Posted on Reply
#12
Mats
notb said:
Why do you think they're losing market share because of shortages?
I don't. You got my post all backwards.
They have been losing market share because of competition (hence why I mentioned AMD). Creating shortages will only make it worse, there's no headroom to do it anymore because the competition is too strong.

notb said:
In some segments, yes.
What segments are you referring to? What are the other segments?

notb said:

But AMD is still behind in many aspects. Intel may rise their prices by 10% and that could mean just 1% less market share.
Even if this is just a temporary action (until Zen 2 arrives) that's still a lot of money to be made.
They analyze it and they know best.
It sounds more like your analysis, not Intels.
Posted on Reply
#13
R0H1T
notb said:
Bad news for all the "hurray AMD" people. You do understand that "shortage" happens when demand for products is higher than supply, right?

And it's even worse if Intel is doing this on purpose - to raise profit margin. That would mean Ryzen is not an attractive mass product and Intel can apply even more aggressive price policy than in the FX era.
No in this case the shortage is artificial or have you forgotten about this so easily?

Intel cuts off DiY desktop processor supply chain deliveries for Q4 2018
https://www.guru3d.com/.../intel-cuts-off-diy-desktop-processor-supply-chain-deliveri...
Posted on Reply
#14
Turmania
If it's Intel, then it's planned by them. Might make no sense from our point of view but they have something up their sleeve.
Posted on Reply
#15
mtcn77
Mats said:


It sounds more like your analysis, not Intels.
HR lady is puppeteering the accountant CEO - you heard it first.
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#16
Robcostyle
Someone still beleive this bullshit, intel pushes to justify its own errogance and dumb greed?
I9-9900K goes for 600$ in doubtfull stores here, better have 650-750$ if you dont want possible problems with warranty claim. And THAT is way too much for a lga115x cpu. But still, if intel feels itself confident to play with prices this aggressive - that means there’re still thousands of dummies ready to buy intel even at 300-400-500% overprice
Posted on Reply
#17
Mats
It's funny how everyone thinks the reason is anything else than what's said in the text. Tinfoil hat party time! :D
Posted on Reply
#18
las
Sp33d Junki3 said:
my next upgrade is going to by Ryzen. The price for the 2600 $210 is no brainer, when coming from 3770k.
Depends on what you do. I had 3770K at 4.8 GHz and bought 2700 at 4.15 GHz, gaming perf went down in numerous of games (100+ fps goal tho).

I'd wait for Zen 2 and hope for higher clocks.
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#19
TheDeeGee
Running my last Intel CPU anyways.
Posted on Reply
#20
laszlo
notb said:
AMD holds the key patents to x86.
correct should be Intel for x86 patents; amd holds x86-64 ones...and they're cross-licensing between them all..
Posted on Reply
#21
Darmok N Jalad
Shortages are not out of the question. Intel is stuck on 14nm, and they had to increase core counts across their lineup to compete. This means they are making bigger CPUs that they want to. 10nm would have solved this, but we know how that has been going. It’s also possible yields on these bigger chips at 14nm aren’t as good as they should be. Hopefully AMD can make gains and put themselves in a stronger market position to keep the pressure on. And Apple going to its own chips soon won’t help Intel either.
Posted on Reply
#22
Manu_PT
Sp33d Junki3 said:
my next upgrade is going to by Ryzen. The price for the 2600 $210 is no brainer, when coming from 3770k.
Plot twist, If you overclock your 3770k it is almost as good as a Ryzen chip
Posted on Reply
#23
Bones
notb said:
Bad news for all the "hurray AMD" people. You do understand that "shortage" happens when demand for products is higher than supply, right?

And it's even worse if Intel is doing this on purpose - to raise profit margin. That would mean Ryzen is not an attractive mass product and Intel can apply even more aggressive price policy than in the FX era.
This is what I was thinking as possibly being the case when I saw the article.

Intel could (Note I say could, not is) be banking on it's current market share to stay loyal to the brandname.
Those that love Intel have done this before, refusing to go with AMD simply because it isn't an Intel and in turn paying more for these chips. Gamers make up at least a decent share of the PC market for them and the gaming guys will pay, esp if they happen to be Intel-loyal and Intel knows it.

Even other customers involved with other parts of their overall market can be brandname loyal too and subject to this, BTW I do know directly Intel WILL make deals to sell chips cheap to certain parts of the market (Think server) just to edge out AMD, passing the cost towards other parts of their market to make up the difference.... And you can guess which part(s) of the market ultimately pays for it.

Creating a shortage to leverage prices isn't something out of bounds for Intel to do with their known history of business practice in terms of it being anti-competition, they've been doing this for years now and I don't see anything changing anytime soon on that.

To be fair, they all do these "Things" related to grabbing and keeping market share but with Intel's recent woes and AMD still coming on strong, it's not exactly a smart move to make if that's what they're up to.

I do know one thing - The next build I do will be an AMD setup no matter the outcome of this.

Can't complain about this current build (7700K - Maximus IX Hero) because it's been doing great as a DD and was able to score parts for it cheap, it's just I'm wanting to keep things current and to do a build once done will be viable for at least a few years down the line.
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#24
Valantar
I really hope AMD has sorted out its idle power issues with the second generation of Ryzen APUs - if so, this could spell real trouble for Intel.
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#25
Steevo
The biggest downside is this may allow AMD to continue to push 1700-2700 CPUs and wait for Intel to respond with a newer architecture.
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