Monday, March 11th 2019
Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019
Supplies of Intel processors will worsen in the second quarter of 2019 according to Taiwan-based industry observer DigiTimes. In a research-based report covering not just the DIY channel, but also the OEM channel focusing on notebook manufacturer, DigiTimes notes that heading into Q2, growth in demand for entry-level portables such as Chromebooks based on entry-level Intel processors, and mainstream notebooks powered by Core i3 processors, which make up the largest demographic of PC consumers in the market.
A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
Source:
DigiTimes
A pertinent concept to this report is supply-gap, the percentage difference between demand and supply. A positive supply-gap indicates demand exceeding supply and shortages. Leading notebook vendors HP, Dell, and Lenovo, reported supply-gaps of 5% going into Q3-2018, which severely impacted their bottom-lines. The companies waded through Q4 with 4-5%. DigiTimes reports that even Apple wasn't spared from shortages in "Amber Lake" processors. "In the first quarter of 2019, the Core i5 processors featuring Coffee Lake architecture are now having the worst supply shortfall. Some of the demand for Intel's entry-level Atom processors has turned to AMD, while some others have opted for Core i3 processors," the report reads. AMD's market-share among OEMs increased from 9.8% in Q1-2018 to 15.8% in Q1-2019.
72 Comments on Intel CPU Shortages to Worsen Thru Q2-2019
Yeah, I get 10nm is a problem but these are 14-freakin'-nanometer which Intel has been kicking around since 2014!!! :wtf:
[insert all of the facepalm memes here]
:shadedshu:
Edit: I think Intel bet the house on 10nm and...the house burned down. It's like Global Foundries all over again... just a decade later.
And it's even worse if Intel is doing this on purpose - to raise profit margin. That would mean Ryzen is not an attractive mass product and Intel can apply even more aggressive price policy than in the FX era.
From what I understand, Ryzen is popular, and nothing like FX.
Intel could have raised the prices like this back when the competition was down, without risking as much as now. Now is not the time.
If Intel raised problem back then, how long would it take before someone like Amazon, Microsoft or Google would buy AMD and start making their own CPUs (or even worse: sell them)?
Today, with AMD somehow stable financially and much bigger (23 bln USD), it a different situation.
But AMD is still behind in many aspects. Intel may rise their prices by 10% and that could mean just 1% less market share.
Even if this is just a temporary action (until Zen 2 arrives) that's still a lot of money to be made.
They analyze it and they know best.
They have been losing market share because of competition (hence why I mentioned AMD). Creating shortages will only make it worse, there's no headroom to do it anymore because the competition is too strong.What segments are you referring to? What are the other segments?It sounds more like your analysis, not Intels.
Intel cuts off DiY desktop processor supply chain deliveries for Q4 2018
https://www.guru3d.com/.../intel-cuts-off-diy-desktop-processor-supply-chain-deliveri...
I9-9900K goes for 600$ in doubtfull stores here, better have 650-750$ if you dont want possible problems with warranty claim. And THAT is way too much for a lga115x cpu. But still, if intel feels itself confident to play with prices this aggressive - that means there’re still thousands of dummies ready to buy intel even at 300-400-500% overprice
I'd wait for Zen 2 and hope for higher clocks.
Intel could (Note I say could, not is) be banking on it's current market share to stay loyal to the brandname.
Those that love Intel have done this before, refusing to go with AMD simply because it isn't an Intel and in turn paying more for these chips. Gamers make up at least a decent share of the PC market for them and the gaming guys will pay, esp if they happen to be Intel-loyal and Intel knows it.
Even other customers involved with other parts of their overall market can be brandname loyal too and subject to this, BTW I do know directly Intel WILL make deals to sell chips cheap to certain parts of the market (Think server) just to edge out AMD, passing the cost towards other parts of their market to make up the difference.... And you can guess which part(s) of the market ultimately pays for it.
Creating a shortage to leverage prices isn't something out of bounds for Intel to do with their known history of business practice in terms of it being anti-competition, they've been doing this for years now and I don't see anything changing anytime soon on that.
To be fair, they all do these "Things" related to grabbing and keeping market share but with Intel's recent woes and AMD still coming on strong, it's not exactly a smart move to make if that's what they're up to.
I do know one thing - The next build I do will be an AMD setup no matter the outcome of this.
Can't complain about this current build (7700K - Maximus IX Hero) because it's been doing great as a DD and was able to score parts for it cheap, it's just I'm wanting to keep things current and to do a build once done will be viable for at least a few years down the line.