Wednesday, February 24th 2021

Industry Specialists Expect Chip Shortages to Last Until 2022

Industry specialists with various analysis groups have stated that they expect the world's current chip supply shortages to not only fail to be mitigated in the first half of 2021, but that they might actually last well into 2022. It's not just a matter of existing chip supply being diverted by scalpers, miners, or other secondary-market funnels; it's a matter of fundamental lack of resources and production capacity to meet demand throughout various quadrants of the semiconductor industry. With the increased demand due to COVID-19 and the overall increasingly complex design of modern chips - and increased abundance of individual chips within the same products - foundries aren't being able to scale their capacity to meet growing demand.

As we know, the timeframe between start and finish of a given semiconductor chip can sometimes take months. And foundries have had to extend their lead times (the time between a client placing an order and that order being fulfilled) already. This happens as a way to better plan out their capacity allocation, and due to the increased complexity of installing, testing, and putting to production increasingly complex chip designs and fabrication technologies. And analysts with J.P. Morgan and Susquehanna that are in touch with the pulse of the semiconductor industry say that current demand levels are 10% to 30% higher than those that can be satisfied by the fabrication and supply subsystems for fulfilling that demand.
All in all, industry analysts expect the supply situation to actually worsen throughout 2021 as countries and businesses cease lockdown policies - and the impact of this happens after supplies have already been exhausted by increased demand from the COVID 19-induced run to information technologies, particularly at the consumer level. And while foundries (such as TSMC and Globalfoundries) have announced capacity expansion plans to occur throughout this year, the actual effect of those supply increases will only be felt at the very least a full quarter after production is running on all cylinders. A dire time for those looking for some semblance of normality from their favored technology suppliers.
Source: Tom's Hardware
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9 Comments on Industry Specialists Expect Chip Shortages to Last Until 2022

#1
Tomgang
I seriously hope he's wrong about this. Else this can litterly destroy my plans for a new pc.

Still waiting for Zen 3 and rtx 3000 series to come back in stock. But if it will not normalize before in 2022. This can mean I have to ask my X58 to take yet another year as my main pc or change my original plans and go Intel and keep my old gpu for the rest of 2021. Maybe even go on the used market and that's not what I want to do s I have my hardware for years.
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#2
yotano211
Tomgang
I seriously hope he's wrong about this. Else this can litterly destroy my plans for a new pc.

Still waiting for Zen 3 and rtx 3000 series to come back in stock. But if it will not normalize before in 2022. This can mean I have to ask my X58 to take yet another year as my main pc or change my original plans and go Intel and keep my old gpu for the rest of 2021. Maybe even go on the used market and that's not what I want to do s I have my hardware for years.
Change your plans, the world has had to change there's.
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#3
hv43082
Damn. May be I should have not cancelled my AMD 5900x pre-order...sigh.
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#4
Searing
hv43082
Damn. May be I should have not cancelled my AMD 5900x pre-order...sigh.
Honestly it doesn't matter. Buy Intel, or get a Ryzen 3600. The 5800x also comes in stock daily, just get one of those. You don't have to set your heart on one specific product and one specific price.
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#5
ixi
Tomgang
I seriously hope he's wrong about this. Else this can litterly destroy my plans for a new pc.

Still waiting for Zen 3 and rtx 3000 series to come back in stock. But if it will not normalize before in 2022. This can mean I have to ask my X58 to take yet another year as my main pc or change my original plans and go Intel and keep my old gpu for the rest of 2021. Maybe even go on the used market and that's not what I want to do s I have my hardware for years.
I'm without pc since summer. In other topics said that looks like I'll be able to wait until next gen releases, haha.
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#6
Tomgang
yotano211
Change your plans, the world has had to change there's.
I think you're right about that.
Right now I am considering alternatives choices and now that intels rocket lake is around the corner, that might be a thing to consider. Unless that as well is no we're to find after release.
ixi
I'm without pc since summer. In other topics said that looks like I'll be able to wait until next gen releases, haha.
Holy crap. Something you chose your self or are forced to do?
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#7
Easo
And in 2022 there will be another issue leading to more shortages, then it will be something else. Damn I am a pessimist.
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#8
watzupken
Searing
Honestly it doesn't matter. Buy Intel, or get a Ryzen 3600. The 5800x also comes in stock daily, just get one of those. You don't have to set your heart on one specific product and one specific price.
I agree. I was previously planning to get a R9 5900X, but looking at the stock situation and the sky high price, I went for a more sane 5800X. There is always the option of Intel as well indeed. Otherwise if you don't think you need to upgrade, then I think best to stick with whatever you have for now.

I actually agree that the chip shortage will not go away anytime soon. I think most will just kick the can down the road by saying that supply is going to bad for Q1, then Q2, then Q3, etc. Initially I was thinking the earliest we can see supply vs demand stabilizing in Q3. I am still hopeful, but as you read about supply issues due to shortage of this and that, that don't sound like something that will just go away in a quarter or 2. I suspect most PC makers are also very low on inventory since they were selling whatever PCs/ laptops they can produce like hot cakes due to COVID lockdowns and working from home. All the while with barely any supply for them because China was locked down for months, and most get their goods from China. So they must be working very hard to spruce up their inventory.
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