Friday, January 14th 2022

Shipments of Notebooks in 2022 Expected to Reach 238 Million Units, Says TrendForce

Due to the pandemic, laptops shipments reached a record high of 240 million units in 2021, according to TrendForce's investigations. However, the market has been abuzz recently and, as the global population of the fully vaccinated has exceeded 50%, relevant demand driven by the pandemic is expected to gradually weaken. Shipment volume will decrease by 3.3% year-on-year, revised down slightly to 238 million units. Chromebooks will account for approximately 12.3% of shipment volume, though it accounted for approximately 15.2% in 2021. The momentum of shipments has slowed down significantly which indicates that demand derived from the economic effect of remote working and teaching has subsided.
TrendForce further states that Chromebook shipments declined sharply by nearly 50% in 2H21 due to the end of the Japanese government's education tender and an increase in U.S. market share. However, thanks to the sequential return to the office of European and American companies driving a wave of commercial equipment replacement, shipments of commercial laptops have grown rapidly to make up for the shortfall. In turn, the shipment of laptops in 4Q21 hit the highest levels of the year, reaching 64.6 million units. In addition, due to the severe shortage of IC materials in mature processes, the backlog of orders extends to 1Q22 and the off-season is expected to be short. Compared with the average quarterly reduction of 15% in previous years, this year's pullback is expected to be less than 10%.

It is worth noting that due to the shortage of container ships and issues with port congestion, shipping time has been prolonged, increasing by two to three times from manufacturers in mainland China to the United States compared to before the epidemic. Notebook brands have all been shipping in advance and the proportion of air freight shipments has increased. However, shipping time still exceeds expectations, which may flood the supply chain with duplicate orders from downstream customers, resulting in overstocked inventories and the risk of subsequent orders being canceled. In addition, the wave of commercial equipment replacement driven by a return to the office will be a major variable that will affect the demand for notebooks in 2022, resulting in near-term buzz in the market.

TrendForce indicated that in the past, due to factors such as fewer working days during the Lunar New Year Holiday and labor shortages in mainland China, brands would often require large OEMs to produce and ship before the Lunar New Year. This first quarter end-of-season surge will start from this month. Even though changes in end-user demand is unclear, March will see the beginning of a production surge to end the first quarter. If there is a major change in demand at that time, it may lead to an accumulation of distribution channel inventory, leading to a downward revision in demand, and a return to the normal equipment replacement cycle.
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15 Comments on Shipments of Notebooks in 2022 Expected to Reach 238 Million Units, Says TrendForce

#1
lynx29
I guess when the supply chain for the basic minerals needed in laptops comes from slave labor in the Congo its easy to churn out hundreds of millions of electronics cheaply every year... I guess that character from the original matrix movie was right, ignorance is bliss... :roll:
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#2
seth1911
I did look for a new one but no one is an option, i just want:
AMD APU or with Intel G7 IGP
15-18" IPS
2x RAM Sockets
Diskdrive (will change it with my BD)
Changeable Battery

For about ~700€


My last one i bought as new for 750€ in 2013 had (yeah it was a Vaio):
Intel I7 QM
GT 540M (yeah it was not the best one)
2x RAM Sockets
Bluray Drive
1080p IPS
Changeable Battey
2x HDD Bays
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#3
TheinsanegamerN
seth1911I did look for a new one but no one is an option, i just want:
AMD APU or with Intel G7 IGP
15-18" IPS
2x RAM Sockets
Diskdrive (will change it with my BD)
Changeable Battery

For about ~700€


My last one i bought as new for 750€ in 2013 had (yeah it was a Vaio):
Intel I7 QM
GT 540M (yeah it was not the best one)
2x RAM Sockets
Bluray Drive
1080p IPS
Changeable Battey
2x HDD Bays
The mechrevio1 uses an AMD 4800h, has a 92Wh battery, ram sockets, and M.2 ports. It's available from several european retailers like XMG.

It doesnt have a hot swappable battery, but NOTHING does anymore. You can easily change it with a screwdriver.
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#4
seth1911
It have no diskdrive..... :laugh:

Not useable for me.


I use Bluray for everything like backups, archiv, etc.
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#5
TheinsanegamerN
seth1911It have no diskdrive..... :laugh:

Not useable for me.


I use Bluray for everything like backups, archiv, etc.
I mean, get an external? It might be time to move on, the ODD is well and truly dead in the laptop space, and much of the desktop space as well. Even the big 17" workstations dont have them anymore. Most manufacturers dropped the DVD drive with 8th gen intel models back in 2016. AFAIK there are no models on the market anymore.
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#6
seth1911
This isnt true discs are not dead (maybe open your horizon and look to X Series X or PS5), i still use Blurays thats it if u like it or not dont interesst me, im using it .


I found a interessting noteboook for me, yeah no changebale Battery and no IPS but I5 G7, 2x RAM Socket and Disc Drive Bay from Fujitsu.
But its possible to change the Display via Aftermarket to IPS.

I think in a 2 Months this will be my new Notebook with 32GB RAM and a BD Drive :p .


Another thing not all is good what stupid consumers accept, Bluray have a really good Backup Time:
Normal Disc Quad Layer about 10 years, Dual and Single Layer 25 years, M Disc are live longer than u.

Flashdrive or SD Card maybe 8 years, my oldest one was 10 years in a Box (yeah i archived it if i was 19 years old),
had troubble to read it.


In generaly Tapes/Disks are the Future for people they want to play them after a long time, even still every burned CD or DVD by my and familie works some older than 20 years.
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#7
TheinsanegamerN
seth1911This isnt true discs are not dead (maybe open your horizon and look to X Series X or PS5),
In laptops they are pretty dead, in PCs in general they are pretty dead. Even the consoles you have specified, over 2/3rds of game sales are digital now. The writing is on the wall for physical media (and really, you're using a game console to justify ODDs not being dead in laptops? Heard of a red herring argument?"
seth1911i still use Blurays thats it if u like it or not dont interesst me, im using it .
Dude, I was just offering suggestions on laptops, no need to be a dick about it.
seth1911I found a interessting noteboook for me, yeah no changebale Battery and no IPS but I5 G7, 2x RAM Socket and Disc Drive Bay from Fujitsu.
But its possible to change the Display via Aftermarket to IPS.

I think in a 2 Months this will be my new Notebook with 32GB RAM and a BD Drive :p .
Good for you for finding the last laptop on earth with a disk drive.
seth1911Another thing not all is good what stupid consumers accept,
Consumers moved away from optical media because it was fragile, slow, and increasingly limited compared to flash drives which at this point are capable of expanding well outside of a blu ray's storage.
seth1911Bluray have a really good Backup Time:
Normal Disc Quad Layer about 10 years, Dual and Single Layer 25 years, M Disc are live longer than u.
Tape backups are measured in decades as well and are far cheaper per GB, nobody who is serious about archiving uses blu rays. Also, that 25 years is for DVD-Rs, and was measured using accelerated aging. We know today that 25 years is a stretch for most DVD-Rs, especially as they are kept in real world conditions and not climate controlled vaults. The blu ray estimate is actually 50 years, but that is just an estimate.
seth1911Flashdrive or SD Card maybe 8 years, my oldest one was 10 years in a Box (yeah i archived it if i was 19 years old),
had troubble to read it.
Flash memory cold storage is measured in weeks, months for specialized storage, not years. Of cours emost people are not using cold storage, so long as flash memory gets some power to refrash itself it will never lose data sand hardware failure.
seth1911In generaly Tapes/Disks are the Future for people they want to play them after a long time, even still every burned CD or DVD by my and familie works some older than 20 years.
Tape is the future for server archiving. It's hard to see how disks are The Future (TM) when most machines dont have them anymore. I though it was pretty obvious that USB HDDs and NAS units were the future for home archiving.
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#8
seth1911
No more comment to you, Disks are slow yeah Bluray Disks are faster in writting than 80% of the internet connection of the americans in the download, a BD can be written with 140 MBit.

80% of the amcerican people can download with 100 Mbit and less.


Edit:
My fastest BD here is a 50GB from Sony with write rate x12 about 430 Mbit
Posted on Reply
#9
Prince Valiant
Get an external drive and save yourself the headache of trying to find something acceptable with an internal.
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#10
seth1911
Nope i want what i want, im not like u and accept shit in different colors. :laugh:
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#11
Tom Sunday
seth1911Nope i want what i want...
Off the cuff. Indeed I know what I want. The article introductory commentary here suggests among other things that the global population of the ‘fully vaccinated’ has exceeded 50%? Good for business? COVID unfortunately has now become a country leader or Presidents political manipulation. Everybody wants to look good! Africa, India, Russia and China are continued principal data violators! The US sets global record with over 1 million COVID cases in one day 2-week ago? The CDC and WHO are at oughts as well over the reports! I am not sure who to believe any more. Who cares about 1-2-3 shot reports? I simply want to know where we are going with all of this with or without a notebook!
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#12
Chrispy_
seth1911Nope i want what i want, im not like u and accept shit in different colors. :laugh:
Modern laptops with an optical drive are extremely rare and mostly limited to the ultra-budget all-plastic laptops running 1366x768 TN panels and have a Celeron/Pentium Silver and 4GB of RAM. They're as garbage as they sound and are practically e-waste before you even open the box they come in.

Your best bet is to stop looking at consumer laptops altogether and look for rugged/military/industrial laptops that have to remain compatible with ports and standards for about a decade longer than consumer stuff. Hell, you can still buy new hardware with serial ports, parallel ports, and PS/2 connectors but it's specialist gear for industry and your regular retailer/e-tailer won't stock it or even list it. Dell, HP, Panasonic, Fujitsu.

The downside? $1500 starting price for weak specs; Don't expect value for money because they won't be highly competitive models for the cutthroat consumer industry, they're certified and standardised to industry requirements and that commands a premium.
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#13
Rakhmaninov3
I bought an ASUS 15.3” laptop with a 4K touchscreen and tablet functionality with 512GB SSD and 2TB HD and an i7 2/4 and discreet 950 for $1300 at Best Buy 4 years ago and it’s still awesome for my use. Battery still good for 4ish hours. I think BB had it mismarked or something

MacBook Air still looks nice
Posted on Reply
#14
Atomic77
It is very hard to find a laptop these days with a cd rom or dvd drive. My laptop a HP which is now just a little over a year old has one build in. as for shipments increasing or decreasing im sure as said before the covid 19 and technology shortages have effected it quite a bit.
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#15
Prince Valiant
seth1911Nope i want what i want, im not like u and accept shit in different colors. :laugh:
A 5.25" drive in an external case will be superior except for size and need of an outlet. Best of luck in your search.
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