Sunday, September 25th 2011
Sunday Special: PC Gaming On the Rise, Set To Outsell Consoles by 2014 - NVIDIA
Some claim that PC gaming is dying. However, recent trends as explained by NVIDIA, disagree and it is in fact console gaming that will soon decline, as PCs have some compelling advantages such as ever improving graphics and moddability, to keep the gaming scene thriving. Techgage held a conference call with NVIDIA, where the company explained why PC gaming is on the up and up. PC gaming software sales are growing fast, according to this comparative graph and the predicted crossover point is 2014:
PC processing power is increasing rapidly and is now estimated to be around ten times that of consoles - a compelling advantage and one that will only increase:
So, how long can consoles hold out with their static, aging technology? Not much longer, one would expect.
Another way to measure PC game sales success, is to look at the continuing rise of online digital distribution. As you can see, sales of retail boxed copies have declined, while online sales have shot up:
While not shown on this graph, there's no arguing that the biggest online platform, Steam, is extremely successful and shows no sign of slowing down. PC hardware can now render near photo-realistic graphics that could only be dreamed of a few years ago, making them a much better platform for gaming from a technical perspective. Also, the PC platform is very amenable to modding, which can build huge fanbases for a particular game which helps to drive sales, something consoles sorely lack. Many gamers much prefer the control offered by a keyboard and mouse too. So, console gamers have long mocked PC gamers for the "decline" of their platform, but for how much longer? All this is excellent news for PC enthusiasts who like to play graphically intensive games and gives them a reason to upgrade their hardware regularly to the latest and greatest. No doubt, it makes hardware manufacturers equally happy.
Note that this is NVIDIAs take on it and they have an interest in selling ever more powerful graphics cards, so it's a good idea to watch market trends from various different sources. However, their information seems reasonable enough.
Head on over to the original Techgage article for more details and some comparative screenshots between Battlefield 2 and Battlefield 3. The improvement in realism is really quite amazing and makes BF2 look a bit dated now.
Source:
Techgage
Another way to measure PC game sales success, is to look at the continuing rise of online digital distribution. As you can see, sales of retail boxed copies have declined, while online sales have shot up:
Note that this is NVIDIAs take on it and they have an interest in selling ever more powerful graphics cards, so it's a good idea to watch market trends from various different sources. However, their information seems reasonable enough.
Head on over to the original Techgage article for more details and some comparative screenshots between Battlefield 2 and Battlefield 3. The improvement in realism is really quite amazing and makes BF2 look a bit dated now.
64 Comments on Sunday Special: PC Gaming On the Rise, Set To Outsell Consoles by 2014 - NVIDIA
I think they earn a lot of cash with older titles at lower prices and it wasn't possible without the ability to sell it via web.
as the new consoles reach market the games for these will be made and again the chart will switch
unfortunately we'll have less&less 1st pc game releases only stupid ports with endless patches...
However it should be noted that the data comes from DFC (as is specified in the charts), which is a market research and consulting firm centered on the gaming bussiness since 1993 (I googled DFC to see what it is). Nvidia is just basing these charts in DFC's forecasts released recently, just like I supose many other companies whose bussines is centered around gaming are doing at least to a degree, I guess they use many sources.
www.dfcint.com/wp/?p=311
www.dfcint.com/wp/?p=48
My point is that Nvidia is not "smoking anything" or doing anything like that as it has been suggested more than once, they are just using which is (probably) the most optimistic forecast out there, because it benefits them. But the forecast is legit and is out there for anyone to use. I think it is important to be accurate on this, a market research firm has published these results, it's not wishful thinking on Nvidia's part. Whether DFC is smoking anything or not, that's a different thing, but I guess that if they are in the bussiness since 1993 it means they do their work as well as any other market research firm.
EDIT: I'd like to also point out that the decrease on concole games makes a lot of sense to me. Next-gen consoles are expected sometime around 2014 or 2015 last time I heard. So I expect far lower console games sales from 1 year prior to the release to 1 year after the release. The reasons are
1- No more Xbox360/PS3 consoles sold in anticipation of the new gen, which means no growth in that market. In part is this influx of new consoles which drives a large proportion of games sales. People with new consoles need to build up a portfolio of games. People with a good portfolio tend to buy a lot less.
2- People will save up for a new console, so that will prevent them from buying games other than the most anticipated ones.
That was true when Xbox360 and PS3 were released* and it will be true again in the future, and that's without accounting for the fact that PC gaming is becoming much stronger (awareness, digital distribution, stronger IGP/basic GPU) and that mobile devices such as phones or tablets may steal a large part of casual gamers off consoles.
* And even then sales were probably better than they could have been if both consoles had been released at the same time, since PS2 games still sold a lot more than XB360 or PS3 games most probably will in the coming years, because the past generation sold a lot more consoles than this one, specifically the PS2.
Instead of spending up to £200 pounds on a console, buy a £100 graphics card and a controller if you're playing 3rd person games and bam, a device that does everything.
Lets not forget all the £20 savings you get from buying pc games vs console games ( typical retail price for console games is £50 at launch here, PC games are 29.99 typically )
Regarding longevity, if you run your games at console settings then no need to upgrade. at all.
/nvidia fanboy here. :p