Thursday, August 24th 2017

Overall GPU Shipments Increased 7.2% From Last Quarter, Boosted by Mining - JPR

This is the latest report from Jon Peddie Research on the GPUs used in PCs. It is reporting on the results of Q2'17 GPU shipments world-wide. Overall GPU shipments increased 7.2% from last quarter, AMD increased 8% Nvidia increased 10% and Intel, increased 6%. Year-to-year total GPU shipments increased 6.4%, desktop graphics increased 5%, notebooks increased 7%.

Up to now, the GPU and PC market had been showing a return to what has been normal seasonality. That pattern is typically flat to down in Q1, a significant drop in Q2 as OEMs and the channel deplete inventory before the summer months. A restocking with the latest products in Q3 in anticipation of the holiday season, and mild increase to flat change in Q4. All, of that subject to an overall decline in the PC market since the great recession of '07 and the influx of tablets and smartphones. However, this year, Q2 dGPU shipments were completely out of sync, and remarkably high, as shown in the following chart.
As the chart shows, this is the first time in over 20 years that Q2 has seen an increase in shipments, and never one this dramatic. The big difference is the impact Bitcoin, Ethereum and other coin miners are having on the market.

Why Ethereum? There was a similar uptick in GPU sales for Bitcoin and Litcoin mining 2013. It drove up sales of GPUs and especially AMD GPUs because of AMD's GCN architecture favored mining. Low cost application specific integrated circuits (ASICs) were then employed to do the job and that boom went bust, much to the relief of gamers looking for better deals on GPUs. Bitcoin miners who had built large GPU structures for mining, dumped their AIBs on eBay, cannibalizing the GPU market for a couple of quarters. Due to the architecture of Ethereum, that won't happen.

Ethereum uses a different hashing algorithm to Bitcoin, which makes it incompatible with the special hashing hardware, ASICs, developed for Bitcoin mining. Ethereum's algorithm is known as Ethash. It's a memory-hard algorithm; meaning it's designed to resist the development of Ethereum-mining ASICs. Instead, Ethash is deliberately best-suited to GPU-mining. As long as Bitcoin process keep going up, new people will be attracted to the mining market. It will eventually flatten out because the ROI just won't be there. At that point AIB sales for mining will roll off, and we may even see some dumping by the marginal players/miners. And there still is the social issue of what kinds of transactions the miners are verifying.

After years of incursion into the discrete GPU market, it appears the discrete GPUs (dGPU) are gaining market share over iGPUs. The long-term CAGR has been positive, while iGPUs have been negative. However, some of the increase in dGPU sales has to be attributed to the blockchain mining demand for GPUs. The continued decline in the overall PC market shows up in the integrated GPU shipment numbers.
Quick highlights
  • AMD's overall unit shipments increased 7.81% quarter-to-quarter, Intel's total shipments increased 6.31% from last quarter, and Nvidia's increased 10.42%.
  • The attach rate of GPUs (includes integrated and discrete GPUs) to PCs for the quarter was 146% which was up 9.57% from last quarter.
  • Discrete GPUs were in 35.38% of PCs, which is up 4.02%.
  • The overall PC market increase 0.12% quarter-to-quarter, and decrease -3.98% year-to-year.
  • Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs) that use discrete GPUs increased 30.88% from last quarter.
  • Q2'17 saw a decrease in tablet shipments from last quarter.
GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market, since a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped, and most of the PC vendors are guiding cautiously for Q4'14. The Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, was a bright spot in the market in the quarter.

The quarter in general
  • AMD's shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs, for desktops decreased -22.2% from the previous quarter. AMD's APU shipments were down -18.8% in notebooks. Desktop discrete GPUs decreased -34.6% from last quarter, and notebook discrete shipments decreased -16.0%. AMD's total PC graphics shipments decreased -24.8% from the previous quarter.
  • Intel's desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by -10.5% and notebook processors decreased by -8.0%, and total PC graphics shipments decreased -13.9% from last quarter.
  • Nvidia's desktop discrete GPU shipments were down -27.8% from last quarter; and the company's notebook discrete GPU shipments decreased -23.0%, and total PC graphics shipments decreased -25.6% from last quarter.
Total discrete GPUs (desktop and notebook) shipments for the industry decreased -25.5% from the last quarter, and decreased -6.0% from last year. Sales of discrete GPUs fluctuate due to a variety of factors (timing, memory pricing, etc.), new product introductions, and the influence of integrated graphics. Overall, the CAGR from 2014 to 2017 is now -9%. Ninety nine percent of Intel's non-server processors have graphics, and over 66% of AMD's non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships integrated graphics chipsets (IGPs).
Source: Jon Peddie Research
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18 Comments on Overall GPU Shipments Increased 7.2% From Last Quarter, Boosted by Mining - JPR

#1
_JP_
Inb4 Matrox launches a mining-centric chip and pulls the rug on nVidia and AMD, henceforth stopping being classed as "Others" on JPR's tables.
Posted on Reply
#2
bug
Which begs the question: if miners only increased demand by 7%, who actually inflated the prices?
Posted on Reply
#3
silentbogo
bug said:
Which begs the question: if miners only increased demand by 7%, who actually inflated the prices?
Posted on Reply
#4
phanbuey
bug said:
Which begs the question: if miners only increased demand by 7%, who actually inflated the prices?
I think it was disproportionate on the mid-high end desktop cards. So if you look at all dGPU its 5% but if you look at RX480 + class GPU it's like 400% (exaggerated guess)...

Or someone in BizDev just really wanted to gouge the crap out of everyone.
Posted on Reply
#5
Solaris17
Creator Solaris Utility DVD
Raevenlord said:
Ethash is deliberately best-suited to GPU-mining
"But this isnt the miners fault"
Posted on Reply
#6
Vayra86
_JP_ said:
Inb4 Matrox launches a mining-centric chip and pulls the rug on nVidia and AMD, henceforth stopping being classed as "Others" on JPR's tables.
...and then continues to buy RTG and take over Nvidia's leading share :P

One can dream...
Posted on Reply
#7
dj-electric
bug said:
Which begs the question: if miners only increased demand by 7%, who actually inflated the prices?
I dont believe this is true at all. Stores were instantly cleaned out of cards by miners.
Posted on Reply
#8
Xzibit
This part of the report isn't too promising

JPR
The continued decline in the overall PC market shows up in the integrated GPU shipment numbers.

The overall PC market increase 0.12% quarter-to-quarter, and decrease -3.98% year-to-year.
The shrinking pie continues
Posted on Reply
#9
bug
Dj-ElectriC said:
I dont believe this is true at all. Stores were instantly cleaned out of cards by miners.
You don't believe what is true?
Posted on Reply
#10
Shihabyooo
Avoiding turning this into an ETH-hate thread is difficult...

bug said:
Which begs the question: if miners only increased demand by 7%, who actually inflated the prices?
Isn't shipment = Supply?
Supply response isn't always linearly proportional to demand, hell, I wonder if it ever is!

The only conclusion I can infer from this is that 7% increase in shipments isn't even close enough to cover the ETH-driven increase in demand. It seems we have one of two things to hope for:
a- That mining will fade away to obscurity (doesn't seem likely, and the DAG epochs aren't coming around fast enough to make sub-Titan Xp cards unfeasible for mining).
b- That GPU industry will embrace mining as a long term market and ramp up production to satisfy demand 1 (or greater) to 1. But looking at how everyone's been calling the demise of the PC industry for ages now, I also wonder if that will ever happen.

*sigh*


Ah! Don't mind me. Just another simple, non-miner user annoyed with all this mining crap...
Posted on Reply
#11
yotano211
another thread of blame it on miners from poor gamers
Posted on Reply
#12
cdawall
where the hell are my stars
yotano211 said:
another thread of blame it on miners from poor gamers
Its fine I think from now on I'm building 1080ti based rigs unless a certain and AMD driver goes public
Posted on Reply
#13
R0H1T
yotano211 said:
another thread of blame it on miners from poor gamers
But many of them are also miners, so there's that.
Posted on Reply
#14
ppn
7 up and 7 down is the way forward. It will compensate in ugly manner for those invested in this ponzi. I would like to get GTX 1070 fresh new sealed box at 250$ soon just like the GTX 670/ 760. the former priced at 400$ the latter 250, and offering performance around 10% slower. Look at the block time of ETH, it is now taking 25 seconds to complete the work that took 15 seconds 2 months ago. The exchange rate is up, so there is that too.
Posted on Reply
#15
R-T-B
ppn said:
7 up and 7 down is the way forward. It will compensate in ugly manner for those invested in this ponzi.
You can't really call something with a market cap this big a "ponzi" anymore.

Yes, it could be artificially inflated. Yes, it could cave. That doesn't make it a ponzi anymore than the stock market.
Posted on Reply
#16
Shihabyooo
R-T-B said:
That doesn't make it a ponzi anymore than the stock market.
So, it is?
Posted on Reply
#17
R-T-B
Shihabyooo said:
So, it is?
No.

A ponzi is something that only makes the top rich, and has no legitimate use.

People on the bottom have gotten rich with both bitcoin and the stock market. Crypto also doubles as a currency.

It's not a ponzi.
Posted on Reply
#18
bug
R-T-B said:
No.

A ponzi is something that only makes the top rich, and has no legitimate use.

People on the bottom have gotten rich with both bitcoin and the stock market. Crypto also doubles as a currency.

It's not a ponzi.
I think was just trying to tell the world he doesn't get the stock market. Almost everyone that doesn't believes it's somehow evil.
Posted on Reply
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