Tuesday, November 22nd 2022
GPU Sales See Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2009 Recession: JPR
Jon Peddie Research reports the growth of the global PC-based graphics processor unit (GPU) market reached 75.5 million units in Q3'22 and PC CPU shipments decreased by -19% year over year. Overall, GPUs will have a compound annual growth rate of 2.8% during 2022-2026 and reach an installed base of 3,138 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next five years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPUs) in the PC will grow to reach a level of 26%.
Year-to-year total GPU shipments, which include all platforms and all types of GPUs, decreased by -25.1%, desktop graphics decreased by -15.43%, and notebooks decreased by -30%—the biggest drop since the 2009 recession. AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter decreased by -8.5%, Intel's market share increased by 10.3%, and NVIDIA's market share decreased by -1.87%, as indicated in the following chart.
Overall GPU unit shipments decreased by -10.3% from last quarter, AMD shipments decreased by -47.6%, Intel's shipments rose by 4.7%, and NVIDIA's shipments decreased by -19.7%.
Quick highlights
GPUs have been a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter, an average of -0.21%. Last quarter, they guided -2.79%, which was too high.
Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "The third quarter is usually the high point of the year for the GPU and PC suppliers, and even though the suppliers had guided down in Q2, the results came much below their expectations.
"All the companies gave various and sometimes similar reasons for the downturn: the shutdown of crypto mining, headwinds from China's zero-tolerance rules and rolling shutdowns, sanctions by the US, user situation from the purchasing run-up during Covid, the Osborne effect on AMD while gamers wait for the new AIBs, inflation and the higher prices of AIBs, overhang inventory run-down, and a bad moon out tonight.
"Generally, the feeling is Q4 shipments will be down, but ASPs will be up, supply will be fine, and everyone will have a happy holiday," Peddie said.
JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries.
Pricing and availability
JPR's Market Watch is available and sells for $2,750. This report includes an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's Market Watch is $5,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive TechWatch (the company's bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription.
Click here to learn more about this significant report or to download it now. For more information, call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at www.jonpeddie.com.
Year-to-year total GPU shipments, which include all platforms and all types of GPUs, decreased by -25.1%, desktop graphics decreased by -15.43%, and notebooks decreased by -30%—the biggest drop since the 2009 recession. AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter decreased by -8.5%, Intel's market share increased by 10.3%, and NVIDIA's market share decreased by -1.87%, as indicated in the following chart.
Quick highlights
- The GPU's overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktop, notebook, and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 115%, down -6.0% from last quarter.
- The overall PC CPU market decreased by -5.7% quarter to quarter and decreased -by 18.6% from year to year.
- Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -33.5% from the last quarter.
- This quarter saw 0.5% change in tablet shipments from last quarter.
GPUs have been a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into a system before the suppliers ship the PC. Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding down for the next quarter, an average of -0.21%. Last quarter, they guided -2.79%, which was too high.
Jon Peddie, president of JPR, noted, "The third quarter is usually the high point of the year for the GPU and PC suppliers, and even though the suppliers had guided down in Q2, the results came much below their expectations.
"All the companies gave various and sometimes similar reasons for the downturn: the shutdown of crypto mining, headwinds from China's zero-tolerance rules and rolling shutdowns, sanctions by the US, user situation from the purchasing run-up during Covid, the Osborne effect on AMD while gamers wait for the new AIBs, inflation and the higher prices of AIBs, overhang inventory run-down, and a bad moon out tonight.
"Generally, the feeling is Q4 shipments will be down, but ASPs will be up, supply will be fine, and everyone will have a happy holiday," Peddie said.
JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market, including systems and accessories, and looks at 31 countries.
Pricing and availability
JPR's Market Watch is available and sells for $2,750. This report includes an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's Market Watch is $5,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive TechWatch (the company's bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription.
Click here to learn more about this significant report or to download it now. For more information, call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at www.jonpeddie.com.
46 Comments on GPU Sales See Biggest Quarterly Drop Since 2009 Recession: JPR
It doesn't take JPR to tell us something we all already know.
This hobby (gaming) on PC's (specifically) has literally become a rich mans game. You pay more and more for a serious set of diminishing returns. You can watch comparison videos until your eyes bleed between "Ray Tracing ON versus Ray Tracing OFF" and you are left going..."ok but, the RT off one...still looks really good!" and in at least more than a few cases, you can't even TELL if it's on or off, and that's a real slap in the face when they ask you to spend double for the new hardware or at least a 40 to 50% increase.
At least that's my experience, yeah there are always going to be 1 or 2 outliers where you go "Ok that looks SUPER nice with RT on....but what a performance or power hit you take to do it", plus then you get into the uncomfortable argument that you're scaling....AI scaling but....you're still running that game native at 1080 or 1440 to achieve those results. Finally, you ever notice how a lot of Ray Tracing ON functions just....look wrong? Like....floors and cars are *never* that reflective in real life, windows are NOT always mirrors like every RT ON video game tries to portray them as, etc, etc.
Meanwhile, every game I play with some uber-raw-power $2000 video card still has blocky shadows that magically materialize 30 (or 10) feet away from my character, totally breaking immersion...or LOD's change noticeably as I get closer to objects.....the $200 old card and the $2000 new super card behave exactly the same way in regards to those game-engine problems.
Video Cards just aren't worth the money they want for them now unless you gotta be that Alpha-Gamer, or you are convinced that your life and game experience suck if you aren't getting a consistent 140+FPS at 4K......which I just don't understand. Why not upgrade to 8k and be *really* disappointed then? :)
The last 4 years they doubled their gaming revenue. And if dumb customers continue to throw money at them, the gold pile they are sitting on just gets bigger & bigger.
(Source: IG Bank)
And a last strike to this situation: in 2017-2018, you could go for highest GPU range for $/€400-500 and still play FHD max details or 1440 medium/high... equivalent category is now twice the price. And RT thingies are not appealling enough yet to push most of gamers into these RT oriented gens.
The only positive point I can identify is lower power consumption for the same perf.
Still waiting to replace my Vega56.
The miners certainly weren't using "datacenter cards" (A100) or "workstation cards" (Quatro) to make their mining rigs. They used 'gaming' cards for that.
so AMD share of DGPU under 10%
Me: Finally upgrade from a 1060 3gb to a 6750 xt for $390.
I'm sure if I waited a few more months I could find a better deal. Maybe if the 6950 xt or 3090 ti fall under $200 I will pick one up. I doubt it though.
And the reason behind is not that they are selling them like hot cakes, but because either have a very low amount in stock (3-4 at tops), or most likely the shops don't have any in stock anyways and they only buy them if they have a request for them, usually with callous prices.