Tuesday, October 15th 2024

Increased Production and Weakened Demand to Drive NAND Flash Prices Down 3-8% in 4Q24

TrendForce's latest findings reveal that NAND Flash products have been impacted by weaker-than-expected seasonal demand in the second half of 2024, leading to a decline in wafer contract prices in Q3. This downward trend is projected to deepen, with prices expected to drop by more than 10% in Q4.

Enterprise SSDs are the only segment likely to see modest price growth—supported by stable order momentum—with contract prices forecast to rise by 0-5% in Q4. However, PC SSDs and UFS will see more cautious procurement strategies from buyers, as weaker-than-expected sales of end products drive buyers to adopt a conservative approach. As a result, TrendForce projects overall NAND Flash contract prices will decline by 3-8% in Q4.
Client SSD prices expected to decline 5-10%
From a demand perspective, inflation and limited practical use cases for AI have hindered any significant upgrade cycles despite manufacturers actively introducing AI-powered PCs. Meanwhile, on the supply side, several major manufacturers returned to full capacity utilization in Q3, while other suppliers increased production through process upgrades, resulting in a modest rise in overall capacity. However, stable server-side demand alone is insufficient to support price increases, given the sluggish consumer market.

The widening gap between spot market prices, channel prices, and OEM contract prices has further restricted suppliers' ability to raise prices. Consequently, TrendForce forecasts that PC client SSD contract prices will decline by 5-10% in Q4.

Growth momentum of enterprise SSD slows down and prices set to rise 0-5%
Q4 server OEM orders have experienced a noticeable decline due to delays in AI server deployments by some enterprise customers. In addition, the peak purchasing period for CSPs has passed, resulting in lower overall procurement volumes compared to Q3.

Meanwhile, smartphone and notebook manufacturers have adopted inventory reduction strategies, leading to more conservative NAND Flash orders. However, ongoing production increases by suppliers have led to oversupply.

TrendForce notes that enterprise SSDs remain more profitable and in higher demand compared to other NAND Flash products, prompting suppliers to aggressively pursue orders and increase bit shipments. This strategy is expected to constrain price growth. Thus, enterprise SSD contract prices in Q4 are projected to rise only marginally by 0-5%.

eMMC prices expected to drop 8-13% amid buyer leverage
The smartphone market showed no signs of recovery in Q3, with many manufacturers depleting eMMC inventory and resisting price increases, resulting in limited transaction volume. While new models—such as the iPhone 16 series, Huawei's foldable phone, and several Chinese brand launches—appear to bring fresh momentum to the eMMC market, buyers are likely to adopt more conservative stocking strategies to avoid over-inventory risks.

TrendForce reports that after prolonged price standoffs between buyers and suppliers in Q3, increased supplier inventory and ample stock in both module and spot markets have tipped the balance in favor of buyers. As a result, Q4 eMMC contract prices are expected to decline by 8-13%.

UFS prices to decline 8-13% as demand stagnates
UFS, mainly used in premium and flagship smartphones, faces a similar market to eMMC. Sluggish economic growth has extended the average smartphone replacement cycle from under two years to three, and the market still lacks a breakthrough application to drive significant upgrades.

With both manufacturers and module makers competing for market share in a soft demand environment, suppliers are likely to offer price concessions to avoid overstocking and meet sales targets. Consequently, TrendForce projects UFS contract prices will also drop 8-13% in Q4.

NAND Flash wafer prices expected to drop 10-15%
Retail demand for client SSDs, memory cards, and USB drives has remained sluggish since the beginning of 2024. Seasonal back-to-school and holiday sales in Europe and the US have failed to boost consumer interest, while China's economic slowdown is expected to weaken demand during this year's Double 11 Shopping Festival. These factors are likely to further exacerbate the decline in NAND Flash wafer demand in Q4.

TrendForce points out that with module makers holding excessive inventory and some suppliers engaging in price-cutting strategies to stay competitive, NAND Flash wafer contract prices are set to decline significantly. TrendForce forecasts a 10-15% drop in Q4, with the possibility of even steeper reductions if market conditions deteriorate further.
Source: TrendForce
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16 Comments on Increased Production and Weakened Demand to Drive NAND Flash Prices Down 3-8% in 4Q24

#1
csendesmark
That is great news!
So it will cancel the inflation and the prices will stagnate :laugh:
Posted on Reply
#2
Ferrum Master
They should quit fooling around and wasting silicon with making small sized NANDs, that's pretty much it... didn't read the room, as there is enough of that crap.
Posted on Reply
#3
kapone32
The day one of these RAM vendors releases a capable 8TB NVME for around $300 US the market will eat them up. Even 4TB drives are still too expensive. Storage, like Games is part of the PC ecosystem and as such should evolve with the space. There was a time when a 2 GB Game was big but today Games consistently near or pass the 100GB mark. Just look up how many videos on Youtube there are of people upgrading their Ally to 4TB. There is even a popular bracket to make 2280 compatible. Then the MBs now come with 4+ M2 slots. Even USB 4 is great for External M2. There are only so many 2 TB drives you can fit though and we still get 4 SATA ports so a nice inexpensive 8 TB in that form factor would be fine too.
Posted on Reply
#4
3DVCash
kapone32The day one of these RAM vendors releases a capable 8TB NVME for around $300 US the market will eat them up.
Sign me up! ITX/SFF builders would be allllll over that.
Posted on Reply
#5
Bwaze
kapone32The day one of these RAM vendors releases a capable 8TB NVME for around $300 US the market will eat them up. Even 4TB drives are still too expensive. Storage, like Games is part of the PC ecosystem and as such should evolve with the space. There was a time when a 2 GB Game was big but today Games consistently near or pass the 100GB mark. Just look up how many videos on Youtube there are of people upgrading their Ally to 4TB. There is even a popular bracket to make 2280 compatible. Then the MBs now come with 4+ M2 slots. Even USB 4 is great for External M2. There are only so many 2 TB drives you can fit though and we still get 4 SATA ports so a nice inexpensive 8 TB in that form factor would be fine too.
Allegedly "there just isn't enough interest" - if there was a need for 8 TB SSDs and up, they would have been bought (in lesser numbers) even for 700 - 1000 USD / EUR, but they apparently aren't, so manufacturers don't want to risk larger production runs that would bring the prices down. "In a world where everything is streamed, even gaming, there is no need for larger capacity drives", apparently.

So we are still offered capacities that were offered already n 2019. That kind of technological stagnation would be unheard of in 80', 90', 2000', 2010'...

This year we have seen several makers of NAND announcing higher density processes that will bring the cost of larger drives down, and even enable larger consumer SSDs - 12, 16 TB. And it remains just at that, announcements that such products could be coming.

Such news articles have a bit of a two-edged effect - who in their right mind would pay a $1000 for 8TB, or even $200 - 250 for a 4TB, if allegedly every NAND maker already has a process in the works that will double the capacity per chip and so drive the cost significantly down?
Posted on Reply
#6
NoneRain
kapone32The day one of these RAM vendors releases a capable 8TB NVME for around $300 US the market will eat them up. Even 4TB drives are still too expensive. Storage, like Games is part of the PC ecosystem and as such should evolve with the space. There was a time when a 2 GB Game was big but today Games consistently near or pass the 100GB mark. Just look up how many videos on Youtube there are of people upgrading their Ally to 4TB. There is even a popular bracket to make 2280 compatible. Then the MBs now come with 4+ M2 slots. Even USB 4 is great for External M2. There are only so many 2 TB drives you can fit though and we still get 4 SATA ports so a nice inexpensive 8 TB in that form factor would be fine too.
Maybe it can't be done cheaper, or the numbers says they profit more focusing on less storage. Everyone would love affordable 8TB NVMEs tho.
Posted on Reply
#7
Bwaze
NoneRainMaybe it can't be done cheaper, or the numbers says they profit more focusing on less storage. Everyone would love affordable 8TB NVMEs tho.
But they are complaining that the market is contracting, so there must be something they are doing wrong?

Maybe focussing on ever faster sequential speeds, even for the price of large power draw and heat output, all the while this benchmark trophy numbers don't actually bring anything to the user experience wasn't the best strategy?

But in every such debate there are comments that no, some users aren't interested even in the capacities available now - that even 4TB is so massively oversized for their use of PC they don't imagine ever needing that, let alone several of them their motherboards supports, so 8 TB and larger is just useless product.
Posted on Reply
#8
bonehead123
Prices going down you say...

oh my, we know what's coming next....

A factory fire, flood, power outage, or other work interruption & WAMMO..... instant justification for jacking up the prices !

But to the point, my company is currently operating with ~800TB of local networked storage to keep all of our CAD files & apps safe & secure, in addition to the cloud backups, but they are getting bids for ~4-8PB in early '25, so hopefully the prices will stabilize by then, but it won't really matter, since they have the deep pockets to make it happen, unlike most consumers, who are probably well served by the huge number of affordable 2 & 4TB drives that are currently available, and until that changes, the market for larger drives won't really take off IMHO....

Personally, I'm all set for the forseeable future, with my 24TB of nvme's that I got at bottom barrel prices late last year.. :D
Posted on Reply
#9
Bwaze
Damn, that's large... I'm waiting for affordable 8 TB drive, because my photo folder is over 4 TB - right now I have it divided to "current year" on main SSD, and the rest on internal HDD. With 8 TB drive I'd just dedicate it to photo folder, and simplify the backup process. And photography is just my hobby!
Posted on Reply
#10
64K
This is good news for gamers. There are already some games that recommend an SSD just to play the game and I expect there will be more on the way. I will be leaving HDDs behind on my upcoming gaming build and don't expect to ever buy another one but I do see why HDDs are still important and practical for a lot of people.
Posted on Reply
#11
Wirko
bonehead123Prices going down you say...

oh my, we know what's coming next....

A factory fire, flood, power outage, or other work interruption & WAMMO..... instant justification for jacking up the prices !

But to the point, my company is currently operating with ~800TB of local networked storage to keep all of our CAD files & apps safe & secure, in addition to the cloud backups, but they are getting bids for ~4-8PB in early '25, so hopefully the prices will stabilize by then, but it won't really matter, since they have the deep pockets to make it happen, unlike most consumers, who are probably well served by the huge number of affordable 2 & 4TB drives that are currently available, and until that changes, the market for larger drives won't really take off IMHO....

Personally, I'm all set for the forseeable future, with my 24TB of nvme's that I got at bottom barrel prices late last year.. :D
At your company, what capacity SSDs are those going to be? I see crazy prices for enterprise 15TB and 30TB drives, while 8 TB models are somewhat closer to Earth... but I guess you won't be building petabyte storage with those smaller ones...
Posted on Reply
#12
bonehead123
WirkoAt your company, what capacity SSDs are those going to be? I see crazy prices for enterprise 15TB and 30TB drives, while 8 TB models are somewhat closer to Earth... but I guess you won't be building petabyte storage with those smaller ones...
I would think it will be a mixture of various sizes, depending on which sets of files will go on which drives, but if their previous purchasing patterns hold firm, they will get whatever sizes gives them the best "bang for the buck" at the time when the execs release the funds, of which they have ALOT available, and our IT guys are extremely proficient at utilizing our resources :)
Posted on Reply
#13
kapone32
BwazeAllegedly "there just isn't enough interest" - if there was a need for 8 TB SSDs and up, they would have been bought (in lesser numbers) even for 700 - 1000 USD / EUR, but they apparently aren't, so manufacturers don't want to risk larger production runs that would bring the prices down. "In a world where everything is streamed, even gaming, there is no need for larger capacity drives", apparently.

So we are still offered capacities that were offered already n 2019. That kind of technological stagnation would be unheard of in 80', 90', 2000', 2010'...

This year we have seen several makers of NAND announcing higher density processes that will bring the cost of larger drives down, and even enable larger consumer SSDs - 12, 16 TB. And it remains just at that, announcements that such products could be coming.

Such news articles have a bit of a two-edged effect - who in their right mind would pay a $1000 for 8TB, or even $200 - 250 for a 4TB, if allegedly every NAND maker already has a process in the works that will double the capacity per chip and so drive the cost significantly down?
What makes it worse is that every consumer based board also supports 22110. To me it is a real slap in the face. The narrative is just that. If it is in the Enterprise world it can easily transition to consumer. Remember the first days of AM4 when you could run 2 M2s using a RAID 0 card int he 2nd slot on X370/X470? Most adapters actually were NVME and SATA but Supermicro had a add in card that came from enterprise that supported both NVME that sold on Newegg for $50. The cards on Amazon were in the $30-40 range. They are milking us with new drives that are too expensive. There is no reason that NVME should be the reverse of HDD in price per GB. As I said if NVME is too much SATA please.
Posted on Reply
#14
iuliug
Gotta love these Bust-Boom Cycles. If entreprise Ai drive market gets into minus, prices will noise dive. After my 85E 2 TB last summer, i will shell that again for a 4 TB tyvm.
Posted on Reply
#15
Bwaze
I'm afraid at this stage that would bring lower prices for a while, yes, but also contraction of production, and in time higher prices due to scarcity. And I wouldn't put it past them to cut their costs by delaying or even stopping development of all those teased large capacity SSDs.
Posted on Reply
#16
Scrizz
kapone32What makes it worse is that every consumer based board also supports 22110. To me it is a real slap in the face. The narrative is just that. If it is in the Enterprise world it can easily transition to consumer. Remember the first days of AM4 when you could run 2 M2s using a RAID 0 card int he 2nd slot on X370/X470? Most adapters actually were NVME and SATA but Supermicro had a add in card that came from enterprise that supported both NVME that sold on Newegg for $50. The cards on Amazon were in the $30-40 range. They are milking us with new drives that are too expensive. There is no reason that NVME should be the reverse of HDD in price per GB. As I said if NVME is too much SATA please.
Well.. enterprise has moved away from m.2. Enterprise form-factors for the most part are E1.L, E1.S, E3.S, U.2, U.3.
You can find 15TB ssds for around ~$1300 :ohwell:
I personally still use HDDs for bulk storage in a NAS. I am neither agreeing nor disagreeing with you.
Posted on Reply
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