Monday, August 29th 2016

Vega Not Before 2017: AMD to Investors

In a leaked presentation meant for its investors, AMD states that it expects to launch the "Vega" GPU architecture no sooner than 2017. The company plans to get it out within the first half of 2017. What makes this decision significant is that the company isn't planning on making bigger GPUs on its existing "Polaris" architecture, and its biggest product is the $249 Radeon RX 480. This leaves the company's discrete GPU lineup virtually untended at key price-points above, against NVIDIA's GeForce GTX 1070, GTX 1080, and TITAN X Pascal, at least for the next five months.

In the mean time, AMD could launch additional mobile SKUs based on the Polaris 10 and Polaris 11 chips. The reasons behind this slow-crawl could be many - AMD could be turning its chip-design resources to the various semi-custom SoCs it's working on, for Microsoft and Sony, with their next-generation game consoles; AMD Vega development could also be running in-sync with market availability of HBM2 memory. 2017 promises to be a hectic year for AMD, with launch of not just Vega, but also its "ZEN" CPU architecture, the "Summit Ridge" processor, and APUs based on the CPU micro-architecture.
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65 Comments on Vega Not Before 2017: AMD to Investors

#1
Slizzo
Sucks, but it's no different than what they'd been saying all along.

Lucky for them the majority of GPUs bought are in the segments they've released already.
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#2
Brusfantomet
"major" price point of the Titan? Only major thing about it is the prize. I would also argue that the 1080 also is in the enthusiast range prize wise.

Sucks for those of us that like new and fast hardware, but i would rather they get all the little kinks out of the cards, drivers and CF so we maybe get a worldwide launch with good availability, and that they match the 1080 at least. One can hope
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#3
lemkeant
Agreed with the others that it sucks, but it is not unexpected. I just switched from Green to Red and grabbed a 480 to use with my new freesync monitor. Now I'm even happier that I did that and decided not to wait.

It's unfortunate that it lets Nvidia run the high-end without competition and price checks, but as long as Vega comes out and is able to beat the 1070/1080, then all will be forgotten in time
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#4
mcraygsx
For those waiting for an upgrade, might as well as buy those expensive 1070/1080, since the price drop seems unlikely. Unfortunately AMD the opportunity to do business with enthusiasts class this time around.
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#5
chr0nos
lemkeant
Agreed with the others that it sucks, but it is not unexpected. I just switched from Green to Red and grabbed a 480 to use with my new freesync monitor. Now I'm even happier that I did that and decided not to wait.

It's unfortunate that it lets Nvidia run the high-end without competition and price checks, but as long as Vega comes out and is able to beat the 1070/1080, then all will be forgotten in time
In that frame time it should be at least 20% faster than 1080 if not total waste....

I was Team AMD but after so much time hyping so much their hardware and fail(Fury OC) after fail(RX480 OC/ PCI-Sig issue) I lost confidence on them.
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#6
64K
2017 might be one more step towards irrelevance for AMD. Nvidia Volta will come by then and even though it's probably on the 16nm process it will have improved features.
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#7
mcraygsx
chr0nos
In that frame time it should be at least 20% faster than 1080 if not total waste....

I was Team AMD but after so much time hyping so much their hardware and fail(Fury OC) after fail(RX480 OC/ PCI-Sig issue) I lost confidence on them.
Right by time AMD is ready to release big boy Polaris/Vega in 2017, nVidia can/will easily counter it with even better energy efficient and performance line of GPUs aka 1170/1180 etc.
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#8
Assimilator
The fact that AMD didn't promise Vega in the 1st quarter does not bode well. Even if it arrives at the beginning of March 2017, that's still another whole 6 months from now for nVIDIA to rule the performance roost. Furthermore there are now rumours that nVIDIA have pushed Volta forward on 16nm instead of waiting for 10nm, with the result that we could be seeing the successor to Pascal as early as May 2017. Even assuming Vega is the performance monster we're all hoping for, that doesn't give it nearly as much time to shine as Pascal will have had.

On the plus side, this hopefully means a dual-Polaris card this year, probably swiftly countered by the 1080 Ti.
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#9
evernessince
chr0nos
In that frame time it should be at least 20% faster than 1080 if not total waste....

I was Team AMD but after so much time hyping so much their hardware and fail(Fury OC) after fail(RX480 OC/ PCI-Sig issue) I lost confidence on them.
So you base your opinion on the perspective performance of overclocking? That's disappointment waiting to happen.

I guess you didn't get the memo that many Nvidia cards also exceeded the PCIe slot's 75w spec by much more grievous amounts. Please, you are just here to bash one side.

The RX 480 is a good chip but so are the pascal video cards. The RX 480 brought AMD much closer to Nvidia in power consumption and with similar performance. Considering that they are already setup for DX 12 and Vulkan, I would not call it a fail.
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#10
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
On one hand, NVIDIA doesn't have competition in the high performance segment. On the other hand, I see this as an acknowledgement that a better process is needed (be it improvement at Global Foundries, switch to Samsung, or switch to TSMC). AMD probably could make Vega on Global Foundries now for November/December shipping but they wouldn't even be able to maintain the 1.2 GHz they have Polaris 10 running at. Long story short: it would be an expensive cripple. AMD needs the processed improved for it to make any sense to push forward with a gigantic chip. On top of that, they need a healthy HBM2 and interposer supply. It's better to wait.

But this damn price stagnation. It sucks man.
Assimilator
On the plus side, this hopefully means a dual-Polaris card this year, probably swiftly countered by the 1080 Ti.
I doubt it. I get the distinct impression that there aren't enough chips for single GPU cards. They need a surplus of chips to drive the price down to where the dual GPU can be offered for $400-450.
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#11
TheGuruStud
So, basically, there's zero hbm2 production. Real nice.

Looks like 980ti is still it.
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#12
Supercrit
Just don't end up as another 1800XT or HD 2900XT
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#13
RejZoR
AMD playing a constant catch up with still inferior products is not doing them any good. Vega in Fall 2016 would be good option. But releasing it in 2017 when NVIDIA will be releasing their new line, they'll be playing the catch up game again most likely. Not cool.
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#14
CounterZeus
Oh man, I wanted to buy a new card at the end of the year, but without competition, I'm not shelling out too much for a high end Nvidia.

Still wondering if Nvidia is doing their refresh now on 14nm as AMD has nothing to offer they can't compete with or just crush.
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#15
FordGT90Concept
"I go fast!1!11!1!"
Pretty sure the Titan is the end for now. NVIDIA is likely focusing on the lower end cards (950 and down) in the near future.
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#16
dj-electric
I'm just sitting here, sad about having no competition in the CPU and GPU world.

That's cruel. I didn't ask for this. No one asked for this. Something's gotta happen, soon.
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#17
alucasa
Dj-ElectriC
Something's gotta happen, soon.
Jen-Hsun Huang and Lisa Su will be seen kissing and heading into a hotel........

Fu @#$@#^@#%
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#18
GhostRyder
Well they are missing the Christmas months which would have been an opportune time for a card to come out. Oh well, guess its just a waiting game.
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#19
the54thvoid
That's quite a way off. It's been a long time since AMD have been this far behind on timescales and performance.
The mid end may be important but even there the 480 isn't on its own (1060). Sucks for upgrading right now. No Zen, no Vega, means both Intel and Nvidia ride the gravy train while we all wait for AMD to get the platform.
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#22
TheGuruStud
$ReaPeR$
well, this was expected..
Early next year was expected (jan-feb). This isn't going to be an early release.
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#23
$ReaPeR$
TheGuruStud
Early next year was expected (jan-feb). This isn't going to be an early release.
i think that they will be forced to release vega before june. things are tight for AMD as it is, if they allow that much time with no presence in the performance market things will be very hard for them.
edit: now that i think about it, if vega is good enough to counter the next generation of Nvidia cards maybe they will be fine. i dont expect the next gen of Nv cards to widen the gap that much. i may be mistaken though.
Fluffmeister
AMD fans like to wait, so no biggy.
LOL yes, but the market doesnt wait for anyone..
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#24
xkm1948
With new DX12 and Vulkan games AMD cards are performing a lot better than DX11 games.







Volta will be a completely new design with Async compute in mind. Thus explains the lack of new flagship product from AMD.

RTG can put 8192ALU to make a flagship, however without good DX12 applications it will still loose to Nvidia's Pascal in DX11 games.
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#25
$ReaPeR$
xkm1948
With new DX12 and Vulkan games AMD cards are performing a lot better than DX11 games.







Volta will be a completely new design with Async compute in mind. Thus explains the lack of new flagship product from AMD.

RTG can put 8192ALU to make a flagship, however without good DX12 applications it will still loose to Nvidia's Pascal in DX11 games.
thats not enough, games will not come out that quickly, also Nvidia will not sit with their hands on their asses.
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