Tuesday, May 2nd 2017

AMD Increases Its Market Share on the Back of Strong Ryzen Sales

There have been some reports that Intel's CPU division has gotten a sales decline of about $150 million, and that AMD has, conversely, seen its processor sales increase by around the same amount. This would seem to beget a straight, logic leap - that AMD was calling to itself sales that would have belonged to Intel. With Ryzen, AMD did make a great product that consumers are looking to buy, and if recent Passmark statistics are anything to go by, it would seem that yes, AMD achieved its sales increase on the back of Intel sales.

The data, pulled from PassMark's quarterly report, shows AMD gaining 2.2% of the processor market share against Intel - and one needs only look at the market share curve, its ups and downs, to notice just how much this occurrence looks against the trend. And one glance towards the blue Intel line is enough to notice that the company's market share has seemingly dropped by an approximate amount. Breaking a trend is usually the hardest part, and it would seem that AMD has done so, even through platform and motherboard availability issues, increasing consumer awareness for its brand and products and capitalizing on strong execution - an execution that too a long while to bring to fruition. This might be a tide-turner from AMD, and with its recent financial results announcement, it would seem AMD is working itself up, slowly, but surely. Here's hoping this marks a return to form from the red camp. You should, however, take these numbers with a grain of salt, since their origin (Passmark and its benchmarking suites) are hardly representative of the entire consumer spectrum.They do, however, give us a glimpse - if a frayed one at that.

EDIT: On account of the mention of AMD's 2017 fiscal year Q1 results, which have brought its stock tumbling, it's important to note the period Q1 F2017 pertains to only includes Ryzen's launch month of March, which was marred by low inventories and some availability problems with AM4 motherboards. As such, Ryzen sales only account for a month of these fiscal results. So, besides a knee-jerk reaction on a report that people expected to see much better than it is on account of Ryzen, let's just wait a bit until the dust settles and the selling-frenzy ends. I'm by no means a financial expert (not even close), but I would take up the falling AMD stocks right now, and look towards increasing share value on Q2 and Q3 fiscal 2017 reports.
Sources: ETeknix, Passmark, ETeknix Intel Denies Ryzen Impact
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22 Comments on AMD Increases Its Market Share on the Back of Strong Ryzen Sales

#1
ssdpro
I have no idea what the last part of the article is about, the financial report yesterday was a disaster and the stock is crashing because of it. Instead of citing "passmark" system scans as market share evidence, I'll post actual data:

Stock value day before launch, $14.96. Stock value right now, $10.92. That's 30% of value just wiped out by Ryzen (still, great value just not what it needed to be). Increasing market share is good but not so good when you increase from almost nothing to very little. The actual info is devastating. About as devastating as the crashing stock after that quarterly report.

Sources:
www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-plunges-toward-biggest-loss-in-over-12-years-2017-05-02
www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/goldman-analyst-who-nailed-amd-plunge-sees-more-downside-for-chipmaker.html
fortune.com/2017/05/02/amd-ryzen-intel/
Posted on Reply
#2
Raevenlord
News Editor
ssdproI have no idea what the last part of the article is about, the financial report yesterday was a disaster and the stock is crashing because of it. Instead of citing "passmark" system scans as market share evidence, I'll post actual data:

Stock value day before launch, $14.96. Stock value right now, $10.92. That's 30% of value just wiped out by Ryzen (still, great value just not what it needed to be). Increasing market share is good but not so good when you increase from almost nothing to very little. The actual info is devastating. About as devastating as the crashing stock after that quarterly report.

Sources:
www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-plunges-toward-biggest-loss-in-over-12-years-2017-05-02
www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/goldman-analyst-who-nailed-amd-plunge-sees-more-downside-for-chipmaker.html
fortune.com/2017/05/02/amd-ryzen-intel/
I agree with what you're saying. I expected stronger AMD results than what they delivered, but it's also important to consider that the US government's fiscal year for 2017 is:
  • 1st quarter: 1 October 2016 – 31 December 2016
  • 2nd quarter: 1 January 2017 – 31 March 2017
  • 3rd quarter: 1 April 2017 – 30 June 2017
  • 4th quarter: 1 July 2017 – 30 September 2017
So, Ryzen sales are not impacting AMD's fiscal bottom line for this quarter results. They will, however, do so in the 2nd quarter, even if only with a month of Ryzen platform sales. So I think we just have to wait and see. Markets always knee-jerk when things don't go as they plan. This would seem to be one of those occasions. I find this odd to consider, but perhaps some investors thought these results count Ryzen sales? I know I did, at first, before remembering how Fiscal years are set up. If so, these results would be selling-spasm inducing indeed.
Posted on Reply
#3
Xzibit
ssdproI have no idea what the last part of the article is about, the financial report yesterday was a disaster and the stock is crashing because of it. Instead of citing "passmark" system scans as market share evidence, I'll post actual data:

Stock value day before launch, $14.96. Stock value right now, $10.92. That's 30% of value just wiped out by Ryzen (still, great value just not what it needed to be). Increasing market share is good but not so good when you increase from almost nothing to very little. The actual info is devastating. About as devastating as the crashing stock after that quarterly report.

Sources:
www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-plunges-toward-biggest-loss-in-over-12-years-2017-05-02
www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/goldman-analyst-who-nailed-amd-plunge-sees-more-downside-for-chipmaker.html
fortune.com/2017/05/02/amd-ryzen-intel/
I'm sure you did but all the 3 links you posted. All the worries are due to future projections on margins. The margins are +2% this quarter.
Posted on Reply
#4
xkm1948
2006 was a good time. Built multiple Athlon64X2 rigs for my friends. Then about a year later Intel starts taking over everything and I ended up with my first intel since pentium133, Q6600.

Good to see AMD CPU bounces back. I am keeping my eyes on the 16core32threads HEDT bad boy.
Posted on Reply
#5
EarthDog
Amd stock has, on the whole, gone up over the past year. Only the laat few days has it gone down. Its still a couple times higher than it was a year ago...its also seemed to flatten out for the moment...

www.google.com/search?q=amd.stock&oq=amd.stock&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.1810j0j4&client=ms-android-verizon&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Also, arent quarterly reports for companies based on THEIR fiscal year???

Sans the drop after the data was released, it didnt go down much because of ryzen. The bigger dropp seems to be from the report.
Posted on Reply
#6
PhantomTaco
EarthDogAmd stock has, on the whole, gone up over the past year. Only the laat few days has it gone down. Its still a couple times higher than it was a year ago...its also seemed to flatten out for the moment...

www.google.com/search?q=amd.stock&oq=amd.stock&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.1810j0j4&client=ms-android-verizon&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8

Also, arent quarterly reports for companies based on THEIR fiscal year???

Sans the drop after the data was released, it didnt go down much because of ryzen. The bigger dropp seems to be from the report.
Yes it's based on their own financial reporting year. AMD Q1 is Jan 1-Apr 1. Since Ryzen launch was (I believe) March 2nd, it's included (a month's worth) in their Q1 statements. For some reason TPU is reporting it as Oct-Dec. Source

Also I think TPU is wrong in it not including Ryzen because the Press Release explicitly says it does in several instances:
“We achieved 18 percent year-over-year revenue growth driven by strong demand for our high performance Ryzen CPUs as well as graphics processors,” said Dr. Lisa Su, AMD president and CEO.
However, Computing and Graphics segment revenue decline was better than seasonal due to the initial sales from high performance Ryzen™ desktop processors
Posted on Reply
#7
TheLaughingMan
PhantomTacoYes it's based on their own financial reporting year. AMD Q1 is Jan 1-Apr 1. Since Ryzen launch was (I believe) March 2nd, it's included (a month's worth) in their Q1 statements. For some reason TPU is reporting it as Oct-Dec. Source

Also I think TPU is wrong in it not including Ryzen because the Press Release explicitly says it does in several instances:
So buy now and ride until next quarter announcements. Get them while its cheap.
Posted on Reply
#8
Joss
ssdprothe financial report yesterday was a disaster
Financial reports and other data reflect the (short term) view and/or (narrow) concern of said financial actors.
This is not, repeat: is not the concern of industrials and consumers. A rise in a company's prospects my counter the interest of financial investors; the opposite is common: a bankruptcy generously fills the pockets of investors and lawyers.
What concerns us, consumers, is sales and market share and those are rosy; go AMD !!!
Posted on Reply
#9
PhantomTaco
JossFinancial reports and other data reflect the (short term) view and/or (narrow) concern of said financial actors.
This is not, repeat: is not the concern of industrials and consumers. A rise in a company's prospects my counter the interest of financial investors; the opposite is common: a bankruptcy generously fills the pockets of investors and lawyers.
What concerns us, consumers, is sales and market share and those are rosy; go AMD !!!
Not remotely true. If all you look at is the income statement and cash flows then yeah, that's true. The balance sheet, however, is both short and long term in it's implications and information. Things like PP&E, long term debt, and long term assets tell a lot.
Posted on Reply
#10
jabbadap
RaevenlordI agree with what you're saying. I expected stronger AMD results than what they delivered, but it's also important to consider that the US government's fiscal year for 2017 is:
  • 1st quarter: 1 October 2016 – 31 December 2016
  • 2nd quarter: 1 January 2017 – 31 March 2017
  • 3rd quarter: 1 April 2017 – 30 June 2017
  • 4th quarter: 1 July 2017 – 30 September 2017
So, Ryzen sales are not impacting AMD's fiscal bottom line for this quarter results. They will, however, do so in the 2nd quarter, even if only with a month of Ryzen platform sales. So I think we just have to wait and see. Markets always knee-jerk when things don't go as they plan. This would seem to be one of those occasions. I find this odd to consider, but perhaps some investors thought these results count Ryzen sales? I know I did, at first, before remembering how Fiscal years are set up. If so, these results would be selling-spasm inducing indeed.
"US government's fiscal year for 2017", uhm what that have to do with anything? Every company has their own fiscal year structure, AMD:s is
AMD’s fiscal year follows the standard calendar year. Fiscal quarters for the 2017 year (exact dates are adjusted early):
  • First Quarter: January 1, 2017 - April 1, 2017
  • Second Quarter: April 2, 2017 – July 1, 2017
  • Third Quarter: July 2, 2017 - September 30, 2017
  • Fourth Quarter: October 1, 2017 – December 30, 2017
But yes you are right Ryzen sales have sold only one month of that fiscal and not only that: cheaper parts were not in sale on that quarter.
Posted on Reply
#11
erocker
*
ssdproI have no idea what the last part of the article is about, the financial report yesterday was a disaster and the stock is crashing because of it. Instead of citing "passmark" system scans as market share evidence, I'll post actual data:

Stock value day before launch, $14.96. Stock value right now, $10.92. That's 30% of value just wiped out by Ryzen (still, great value just not what it needed to be). Increasing market share is good but not so good when you increase from almost nothing to very little. The actual info is devastating. About as devastating as the crashing stock after that quarterly report.

Sources:
www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-plunges-toward-biggest-loss-in-over-12-years-2017-05-02
www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/goldman-analyst-who-nailed-amd-plunge-sees-more-downside-for-chipmaker.html
fortune.com/2017/05/02/amd-ryzen-intel/
The time between "$14.96" and "$10.92" was in a matter of a few months. From a market perspective it's almost insignificant as the initial inflation of the stock was based upon "hope". The stock is stronger than it was last year, almost double what it was... Though things seem to be going downhill the past few days, it'll settle where it should.
Posted on Reply
#12
ZoneDymo
should really stop buying Intel for a while, this is rather disturbing
Posted on Reply
#13
rruff
PhantomTacoThe balance sheet, however, is both short and long term in it's implications and information. Things like PP&E, long term debt, and long term assets tell a lot.
AMD has been riding a wave of fanboy optimism, but reality is starting to set in. This isn't like 2004. I was hoping for a strong showing from Polaris and Ryzen, but performance-wise they are a mixed bag. Going forward AMD is a small company with bigger competitors in fields where innovation and tech are super important. It's still uncertain if they will continue to make incremental gains without suffering another major setback, which would likely be fatal.
Posted on Reply
#14
ssdpro
RaevenlordI agree with what you're saying. I expected stronger AMD results than what they delivered, but it's also important to consider that the US government's fiscal year for 2017 is:
  • 1st quarter: 1 October 2016 – 31 December 2016
  • 2nd quarter: 1 January 2017 – 31 March 2017
  • 3rd quarter: 1 April 2017 – 30 June 2017
  • 4th quarter: 1 July 2017 – 30 September 2017
So, Ryzen sales are not impacting AMD's fiscal bottom line for this quarter results. They will, however, do so in the 2nd quarter, even if only with a month of Ryzen platform sales. So I think we just have to wait and see.
I agree with your comments and story edit, mostly. I think Ryzen is a good product. I think they priced it a bit below even my best case predictions making it a tremendous value. The problem was the market (and most users) wanted a product that exceeded Intel's offerings and pushed them hard. They succeeded in some push, since some launch dates are accelerating.

I also agree that there is plenty of room to turn it around with long term increasing sales. The question is are the margins high enough on these or are these laying groundwork for the next product and will that come fast enough? On the flip, the big problem here is prior to launch the stock was at 14.96 as previously stated. It did take that first big hit on the initial reviews and dropped down to 13.03 but then it recovered back to 14.64 over the next month. This is a second even bigger crash all the way down to $10.30. The one year trend is great. The two month trend is really bad. It just happens that two months ago today was the Ryzen launch - coincidence?
Posted on Reply
#15
TheGuruStud
This is no different than wall street crying that the stock was overvalued 2 weeks ago. They want to crash it, so they can buy. Someone should keep tabs on how much stock is bought, now. How many stocks do they get to safely invest in that will double and more in a short period of time (therefore fast profits)? Without insider knowledge, I say not that many. This is an excellent buy (for the fat cats) even at 10 bucks if you want to double your cash in a year or less.
Posted on Reply
#17
Manu_PT
Conversation between me and the guy from the most famous computer store here in Lisbon, Portugal.

Me: "Would like to ask you if you guys are having any problems/RMA/troubleshooting/unstability/reliability with Ryzen hardware that your customers have been buying."

Worker:" I can´t really reply to that because we barely sold Ryzen CPUs, not selling well."

Was surprised myself tbh. I think Ryzen 5 line up is very strong product, but needed a bit higher clocks. Still between a 7600k and a Ryzen 5 1600 I would go with AMD. Problem is that 7700k with a cheap memory kit of 2133/2400mhz still rapes Ryzen in games, for almost the same price as a Ryzen 3000mhz ddr4 + X370 combo. Yes you can use 2133 ddr4 on Ryzen too, but then the gap between it and 7700k would be even bigger (is already 30% in some games, at the same clocks).

When Intel launches their upcoming 6 core CPU for 350/400 bucks, clocked at 4,4ghz/4,5ghz, can only see we back to the same thing again. Ryzen irrelevant, the differences will be massive again like they were between an 8 core bulldozer and a 8 threaded 2600k.

Now, if only the upcoming Bios updates could allow you to use 3800mhz DDR 4 kits at least... would be a massive jump on performance for 144hz/CPU bound gaming.
Posted on Reply
#18
Bansaku
Looking at the graph, it's shocking how AMD tanked once Intel launched the Core series CPU. Coincidentally, that was the same time I moved on from AMD.

:toast:
Posted on Reply
#19
Ravenas
ssdproI have no idea what the last part of the article is about, the financial report yesterday was a disaster and the stock is crashing because of it. Instead of citing "passmark" system scans as market share evidence, I'll post actual data:

Stock value day before launch, $14.96. Stock value right now, $10.92. That's 30% of value just wiped out by Ryzen (still, great value just not what it needed to be). Increasing market share is good but not so good when you increase from almost nothing to very little. The actual info is devastating. About as devastating as the crashing stock after that quarterly report.

Sources:
www.marketwatch.com/story/amds-stock-plunges-toward-biggest-loss-in-over-12-years-2017-05-02
www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/goldman-analyst-who-nailed-amd-plunge-sees-more-downside-for-chipmaker.html
fortune.com/2017/05/02/amd-ryzen-intel/
Prior to Ryzen launch, AMD had a market share of ~ 2 billion. Your argument is really nothing but mute. Any form of slight success at this time is great news for AMD.
Posted on Reply
#20
Caring1
ssdproI have no idea what the last part of the article is about, the financial report yesterday was a disaster and the stock is crashing because of it.
I disagree, the report released was positive, it shows improved growth and will lead to a R.O.I. if continued.
Posted on Reply
#21
Boosnie
I C lotsa fine stock analysts.

Yesterday drop was well expected as a consolidation of the gains credited since june 2016 as incentive over the new platform (AM4+Ryzen)
Once the fiscal trunk in which the launch happens is over, investors start to ponder hard data and the market reacts accordingly. That's expected.
When the supply line will start to pump as it is intended to be, when ryzen will be sold into pre-built towers, NUCs(?), laptops and the like, the stock will rise accordingly (Given AMD will be able to make the supply machine tic).
You just have to take a look at the last year stock trend to see for yourself what Ryzen really did for AMD.
Posted on Reply
#22
medi01
I think Ryzen would sell better, had Vega been released.
A bunch of customers plans to have AMD only builds and 580/1060 level performance is not what many are after.
Manu_PTProblem is that 7700k with a cheap memory kit of 2133/2400mhz still rapes Ryzen in games
The perf difference is vastly vastly exaggerated.
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