Wednesday, October 18th 2017

DRAM Output in 2018 Planned for Continued High Pricing - TrendForce

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, has come forward with the expected announcement that DRAM output in 2018 likely won't be enough to fully satisfy supply. This has been the case for some time now. However, what started with simple insufficient output that could contain the explosion of DRAM capacity in smartphones seems to now be turning into a conscious decision by the three top memory manufacturers. Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix are seemingly setting output at a lower than required level so as to artificially inflate pricing due to low supply. TrendForce themselves say so, in that these suppliers "(...) have opted to slow down their capacity expansions and technology migrations so that they can keep next year's prices at the same high level as during this year's second half. Doing so will also help them to sustain a strong profit margin."

DRAM production is expected to increase by 19,6% in 2018; however, this ratio is lower than the expected growth in demand, which is being pegged at 20,6%. This means 2018 is likely to see increased constraint in the supply channels (whereas 2018 was actually expected to see a slight relief in supply issues). This means that pricing will either stabilize or tend to increase from current levels. To be fair, semiconductor production isn't as simple as hitting a "increase production by 10x" button; reports say that all three players are contending with insufficient room to expand output on their production lines, and getting a new production facility online isn't a trivial effort - neither in funds, nor on time. However... All involved companies would much rather keep prices as they are than see them being brought down by oversupply.
Source: TrendForce
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46 Comments on DRAM Output in 2018 Planned for Continued High Pricing - TrendForce

#26
NC37
I remember the last time they did this, they got sued. Funny, it took maybe a decade to get a pocket change check from that settlement but it did come. Oh well, looks like I'll be a little richer in another decade or two once this goes to trial.
Posted on Reply
#27
wurschti
I remember when buying 32GB DDR3 cost $99. RIP those times
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#28
wiyosaya
noname00This also happened with hard drives six years ago. Floods stopped production, supply depleted, prices rose, production got back to normal, prices didn't.
Willfully slowing production is something far different than production being slowed because factories are overcoming the effects of a natural disaster.
evernessinceActually there is something you can do about it. File a complaint, in the EU price fixing is heavily regulated. If you live in the USA though you are screwed since the government has let giant monopolies form and allowed companies to consort all to the loss of the average citizen. Only advice I can give to those in the states is stop electing business man and lobbyists with obviously dubious motives to office.
As a US citizen not aligned with the current national party, the "coalition of not-national-party-in-power-aligned states" ;) may file (a) law suit(s) over this anyway. Collusion to inflate prices is called "price fixing" and is generally illegal; the "coalition of not-national-party-in-power-aligned states" still wields a lot of power, and the national-party-in-power is finding out that it does not wield as much power as it thinks. Even the now more conservative SCOTUS is issuing a few slaps to the national-party-in-power, and I suspect that if the national-party-in-power continues down its current capitalistic monarchical path, SCOTUS will go beyond simple slaps.
Posted on Reply
#29
Parn
Now I regret I didn't stock up on some 16 - 32GB DDR4 kit when they were cheap. I'm actually in need of some more RAM for my home server in order to be able to run more VMs.
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#30
Fasola
wiyosayaWillfully slowing production is something far different than production being slowed because factories are overcoming the effects of a natural disaster.
Western Digital was the only one impacted by the flood. All of them raised prices by 100%+ in a week.
Posted on Reply
#31
wiyosaya
FasolaWestern Digital was the only one impacted by the flood. All of them raised prices by 100%+ in a week.
In this case, the price increase may be more due to a restricted supply; collusion might be hard to prove since one manufacturer was unable to participate due to their factory being offline. I am not saying that I approve of the 100% increase, just that it would be harder to prove the manufacturers colluded to increase prices.

In the case of DRAM, collusion may also be not so easy to prove. Perhaps the only way would be to prove that all the manufacturers have more production capacity than they claim. Price fixing lawsuits have been brought to court in many different industries.
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#32
StrayKAT
RelayerWhy not, that's what OPEC does. This is what happens when you over rely on imports.
Well, I'd love less imports. I barely even remember what that looks like though..
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#33
dicktracy
They're using the flooding incident as an excuse to charge more. "The toilet flooded at one of our factories. RAM prices increase by 50%!"
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#34
evernessince
StrayKATWell, the funny thing is the current "business man" with the highest office in the land actually put a ban on some lobbies and prevents anyone who's ever worked for his administration to have a lobbying job for 5 years if they leave their government job. And he donates his salary. That's more than most have done. So on a federal level, it's not so bad right now. It's State governments that don't worry about this.

Nor does he get much credit for it btw (he's "literally Hitler" and all that ;) ).
O'rly? www.businessinsider.nl/trump-lobbyist-ban-cabinet-waiver-oge-2017-5/?international=true&r=US

Aside from that Flynn forgot to mention that he was working with turkey

Scott Pruit has taken more money from Oil companies than I can count.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Pruitt

Steve Mnuchin was part of the banking crisis, where he made millions foreclosing on misfortune Americans.

But yes, according to you, Trump's white house is ethical. Expect that they have already been issued more ethic violations than any administration in US history. It's a lucky day when the Trump administration doesn't start a twitter war or diplomatic catastrophe.

I'm from New York and the reason NY didn't vote for Trump, even though this is his home state, it because we can spot a bull shitter when we see one. Trump's story is a classic one, city slicker cons country bumpkins.
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#35
StrayKAT
evernessincecity slicker cons country bumpkins.
The reason he got elected is partly because of this attitude. Democrats have become a coastal party that plays in identity politics and looks down on the rest of the country's working class.

And like I said to the other guy, I actually voted for Hillary myself (although I probably shouldn't have). You don't need to make this about me or imagine I'm a Trump supporter. I consider myself just a centrist -- and one who doesn't villainize people or engage in exaggerations. "More ethic violations than any administration in US history". This is the other reason why things are falling apart. People can't simply present a good argument without turning it up to 11. Some of the old moral instincts are good, but his opponents have become hysterical. It just ruins whatever good instincts they might have had.

Flynn didn't even make the cut before inauguration. But none of these names you mentioned are relevant, if they're not engaging lobbyists now or Trump has set a rule that they can't lobby for 5 years after leaving. That was my only point. Not their life history.

edit: Oh and whatever Mnuchin's faults are, Trump has actually proposed bringing back Glass-Steagall.. Or something similar to it. The same Glass-Steagall that Bill Clinton tore down and gave us the makings of that very housing crisis. Mnuchin probably doesn't want it himself, but he's tried proposing it and took his marching orders.

One of the only proponents left for Democrats who wants the same is Elizabeth Warren. But even she's so frothing with hatred for Trump that she wouldn't work with him on this. Too purist and idealistic for her own good. I'd say it's time to be pragmatic..
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#36
InVasMani
I didn't vote to hell with that I'm not into finger pointing popularity games.
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#37
StrayKAT
InVasManiI didn't vote to hell with that I'm not into finger pointing popularity games.
Well, I don't really want to point fingers. In fact, I think the two people who've called me out here are people I agree with, in principle. We hate lobbyists and probably unregulated investment banks. I'm just not an idealist. I don't care how the hell we solve those problems. I think the majority of both parties in the US are Globalist Neo-Liberals, with very little distinction. Probably most of Europe and Asia as well. I'll side with anyone who fights against it. Even "Drumph".
Posted on Reply
#38
InVasMani
There are a lot of wolves in sheep's clothing unfortunately. I think the parties themselves should be able to vote out candidates within their parties that really don't align with it properly. That plus independent party needs a real platform or should be done away with entirely since it has no real control or power and is just a means for a candidate to run for office w/o being labeled to one party or the other despite how they actually caucus and vote.
Posted on Reply
#39
evernessince
StrayKATThe reason he got elected is partly because of this attitude. Democrats have become a coastal party that plays in identity politics and looks down on the rest of the country's working class.

And like I said to the other guy, I actually voted for Hillary myself (although I probably shouldn't have). You don't need to make this about me or imagine I'm a Trump supporter. I consider myself just a centrist -- and one who doesn't villainize people or engage in exaggerations. "More ethic violations than any administration in US history". This is the other reason why things are falling apart. People can't simply present a good argument without turning it up to 11. Some of the old moral instincts are good, but his opponents have become hysterical. It just ruins whatever good instincts they might have had.

Flynn didn't even make the cut before inauguration. But none of these names you mentioned are relevant, if they're not engaging lobbyists now or Trump has set a rule that they can't lobby for 5 years after leaving. That was my only point. Not their life history.

edit: Oh and whatever Mnuchin's faults are, Trump has actually proposed bringing back Glass-Steagall.. Or something similar to it. The same Glass-Steagall that Bill Clinton tore down and gave us the makings of that very housing crisis. Mnuchin probably doesn't want it himself, but he's tried proposing it and took his marching orders.

One of the only proponents left for Democrats who wants the same is Elizabeth Warren. But even she's so frothing with hatred for Trump that she wouldn't work with him on this. Too purist and idealistic for her own good. I'd say it's time to be pragmatic..
I didn't vote for either either but what I said "city slicker cons country bumpkins." is completely true. And by country bumpkins, I mean
wiyosayaWillfully slowing production is something far different than production being slowed because factories are overcoming the effects of a natural disaster.

As a US citizen not aligned with the current national party, the "coalition of not-national-party-in-power-aligned states" ;) may file (a) law suit(s) over this anyway. Collusion to inflate prices is called "price fixing" and is generally illegal; the "coalition of not-national-party-in-power-aligned states" still wields a lot of power, and the national-party-in-power is finding out that it does not wield as much power as it thinks. Even the now more conservative SCOTUS is issuing a few slaps to the national-party-in-power, and I suspect that if the national-party-in-power continues down its current capitalistic monarchical path, SCOTUS will go beyond simple slaps.
I hope so but wasn't Gorsuch just appointed to the SCOTUS? If you look at his past rulings he has sided with corporations a quite often.
Posted on Reply
#40
Slizzo
OT, but the problem with this country is the people WHO DON'T VOTE!

We need EVERYONE to VOTE, ALL ELECTIONS. It's the only real way to affect the outcome of elections.

O(n)T, I do hope FTC takes a look at this (and EU) and sees if this is illegal. Sounds like collusion to me.
Posted on Reply
#41
InVasMani
Citizens aren't nearly as well informed on these issues as politicians and it's not our jobs to give a damn to the same extent. Mandatory voting should be for congress not citizens they are the ones elected and paid to give a damn on these issues and represent and inform us not the other way around. They vote and we decide if we want to vote one way or the other based on what we've been presented.
Posted on Reply
#42
Gmr_Chick
I ha
SlizzoOT, but the problem with this country is the people WHO DON'T VOTE!

We need EVERYONE to VOTE, ALL ELECTIONS. It's the only real way to affect the outcome of elections.
Exactly. Not to beat a dead horse, but Orange Hitler basically won because the snot-faced liberals/millennials (and this is coming from a "millennial" Democrat, mind you) decided to act like spoiled children throwing a tantrum just because Precious Bernie didn't win the nomination, when they really should have been putting aside their grudge against Hillary and vote for her anyway, regardless of how they feel about her. Because what's in the White House now is far worse than anything she would have ever done.
Posted on Reply
#43
StrayKAT
Gmr_ChickI ha


Exactly. Not to beat a dead horse, but Orange Hitler basically won because the snot-faced liberals/millennials (and this is coming from a "millennial" Democrat, mind you) decided to act like spoiled children throwing a tantrum just because Precious Bernie didn't win the nomination, when they really should have been putting aside their grudge against Hillary and vote for her anyway, regardless of how they feel about her. Because what's in the White House now is far worse than anything she would have ever done.
Not sure why she'd be better. And I voted for her. I suppose my excuse was that I was simply used to "business as usual" and expected little more from politicians. It was the safe, boring choice. My other excuse is that I was a victim of the Matrix. lol, I'm kind of grateful to Trump for shattering it. Especially the media's push for Hillary and all the high poll numbers she had. It shows how much we were being lied to, when the race wasn't a landslide in the end. The DNC and Wikleak's emails also show how much they controlled the narrative and how Bernie never stood a chance.

As for orange Hitler, I'm too much of a WW2 aficionado to call him Hitler. I implore everyone to live by their 5 senses first, not their intuition. In order to be like Hitler, he has to do things like Hitler first. He hasn't done anything close. Not yet. It especially irks me that Bush came out of hiding and spoke out against him too --- when it was Bush that has very tangible things I can point to that were destructive and killed thousands. Same with McCain, who all the Democrats love now because he hates Trump. Trump hasn't even caused Egypt and Syria to implode like the "Arab Spring" did either under Obama's watch... and afaik, hasn't hit random villages with drone strikes yet. He still has time though. :)
Posted on Reply
#44
Athlonite
wiyosayaIn this case, the price increase may be more due to a restricted supply; collusion might be hard to prove since one manufacturer was unable to participate due to their factory being offline. I am not saying that I approve of the 100% increase, just that it would be harder to prove the manufacturers colluded to increase prices.

In the case of DRAM, collusion may also be not so easy to prove. Perhaps the only way would be to prove that all the manufacturers have more production capacity than they claim. Price fixing lawsuits have been brought to court in many different industries.
One would tend to think if one factory is down then increased sales to the others would have lead to prices going down but it didn't they all put their prices up WD might have been out of the running but proving collusion/price fixing between the other manufacturers of HDD's would have been simple
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#45
Prima.Vera
To be honest, the smartphones are becoming so boring. There is absolutely no reason to upgrade from a 2 or even 3 years old phone. The new ones don't bring anything new to the table to justify 1K Euros / device. This is ridiculous. I still don't understand why people are mindless shipple any change their phone every year for almost no gain in anything.... In a normal world those phones would never sell --> no DRAM so call crisis excuse...
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#46
InVasMani
They pay more for their smart phones primarily so they can have the latest and greatest low profile camera. Til that jack*** with the Canon Rebel spoils the party with his fancy larger better quality camera that ****'s all over their dinky pocket camera and they go take pouty bathroom selfies to cope.
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