Wednesday, March 6th 2019

TrendForce: Recent DRAM Pricing Decline Biggest Since 2011, Nearly 30% Decrease

The latest analysis of the PC DRAM market from DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, finds that most contracts are now monthly deals rather than quarterly deals, with February even seeing a most unusual, large down-correction in prices. The current quarterly decline dropped from the originally projected 25% to nearly 30%, resulting in the sharpest decline in a single season since 2011.

DRAMeXchange points out that, according to the most recent market observations, inventory levels have kept climbing ever since overall contract prices dropped in the fourth quarter of last year, and most DRAM suppliers are currently holding around a whopping six weeks' worth of inventory (wafer banks included). Meanwhile, Intel's low-end CPU supply shortage is expected to last until the end of 3Q19, and PC-OEMs are unable to carry out the consumption of DRAM chips under demand suppression. The overall market has thus entered freefall, meaning that large reductions in prices aren't going to be effective in driving sales. The excessively high inventory will continue to cause down-corrections in prices this year if demand doesn't make a strong comeback.
Looking at the DRAM market one or two years into the future, the big trio aren't going to roll over in the competition for market shares any time soon. SK Hynix has recently announced that it will invest 120 trillion won (around US$107 billion ) to build four new wafer fabs as part of its strategy to improve its competitiveness. Micron, on the other hand, doubled down and commenced construction of an IC testing and packaging plant in Taiwan. At the same time, its subsidiary Micron Memory Taiwan ( formerly Rexchip) in Houli, Taichung, is considering building a new 12-inch DRAM wafer fab, which could finish construction as early as the end of next year, and massively contribute to production in 2021. As for the world's largest DRAM supplier Samsung, it is currently building a second fab at Pyeongtaek.

"The rich stay rich"-such is the immutable trend of the DRAM market; furthermore, new competitors are aided by a wealth of resources and capital upon entering the market. Hence, if smaller DRAM suppliers don't find ways to catch up on production processes and scale, they may risk being marginalized in the near future. Source: TrendForce
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28 Comments on TrendForce: Recent DRAM Pricing Decline Biggest Since 2011, Nearly 30% Decrease

#1
Robcostyle
32GB 3000/3200CL14 kit costs like 400$ At this moment in neares store. What DRAM price drop are you talking about?

All this agenda looks like good old Soviet propaganda - they kepp twlling you how great comunism is, how wealthy people are and what a bright future is coming. IRL you get goods shortage, mediocre salary and 1991
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#2
HaKN !
Robcostyle, post: 4006929, member: 176192"
32GB 3000/3200CL14 kit costs like 400$ At this moment in neares store. What DRAM price drop are you talking about?

All this agenda looks like good old Soviet propaganda - they kepp twlling you how great comunism is, how wealthy people are and what a bright future is coming. IRL you get goods shortage, mediocre salary and 1991
Aye , agree on that mate. Dram prices in Denmark are INSANE !!
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#3
R0H1T
Robcostyle, post: 4006929, member: 176192"
32GB 3000/3200CL14 kit costs like 400$ At this moment in neares store. What DRAM price drop are you talking about?

All this agenda looks like good old Soviet propaganda - they kepp twlling you how great comunism is, how wealthy people are and what a bright future is coming. IRL you get goods shortage, mediocre salary and 1991
These aren't retail prices we're talking about, the decline will take some time to filter through the entire supply chain. Also we've seen time & again retailers price gouging in such cases, I'd say not everything is the cartel's fault.
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#4
jmcslob
I'm seeing 16gb 3200mhz kits for $120.
8gb kits are starting around $50....
Methinks this will be the lowest before ddr5.
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#5
kastriot
When i see 16GB kit for 60$ then we can talk about price drop and about more cheap cpu-s on market it's almost there(Zen 2).
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#6
Flyordie
You got 2 different levels of DRAM pricing... B-Die pricing and SK/Other pricing. B-Die kits will ALWAYS have a price premium. The B-Die kit I got in Sept of last year was at $520. (I got lucky and got it on sale while an Ebay 15% off sale was going on and bam... $380 for 32GB of GSkill RGB goodness with B-Die memory chips) The price now.. $440.
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#7
eidairaman1
The Exiled Airman
Yup until the EU gets involved...
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#9
ArbitraryAffection
I recently bought the G.SKill 3200-14-14-14-34 B-die kit (2x8GB) the Non RGB ones from Amazon for £190. OCUK have a Bdie Teamgroup kit with the same spec for £180 (but i get free shipping cuz Prime).

I have noticed they are dropping in price now though. Can pick up an 2x4 kit of 2400 c14 for like £50. Two of my rigs use this kit, 8GB is fine for WCG...This is good news because I will need a lot of RAM for the systems i plan to build. lol.:D
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#10
Casecutter
kastriot, post: 4006965, member: 165334"
When i see 16GB kit for 60$
And not the messily DDR4-2133 / DDR4-3000 spec junk. Right today we should get 16Gb (2x8Gb) kits of DDR4-3200 and generic/acceptable heat spreaders (no RGB) for $50 from lesser brand companies. Stuff like; Corsair Vengeance, Crucial Ballistix, G. Skill Trident should be like $60.
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#11
kid41212003
Most 16GB ddr4 kit have dropped in price. The kit I got 6 months ago for $145 is now only $105.
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#12
SiRoCu
I’ve got G.SKILL 16GB(8x2) 3600MHz C15 from Neweggs $216 at 3 months ago and now!! the price is $222
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#13
windwhirl
The price drop is happening, at least in some markets.

Today, I can buy a 16 GB 3000 MHz single stick of RAM at a price range between AR$7000 and 9000. Almost a year ago, they were around AR$6000 to 7000. At the time, the currency exchange rate was around AR$20=1 US dollar. Today, it is around 40:1.

More or less, the drop would be between 70 and 120 dollars. Pretty nice, for me at least.
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#14
Casecutter
Like this... isn't any deal to me.
G.Skill 16GB (2x8GB) Aegis DDR4 3000 (F4-3000C16D-16GISB) for $80 with free shipping.

Egg has this stuff up presently and even if it was $60 it wouldn't "tickle-my-fancy".
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#15
HD64G
Since RAM has over-doubled their price for the last 2 years, they need to fall MUCH MORE to become price-friendly for us customers.
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#16
Nephilim666
What do retailers truly contribute? Why don't the manufacturers sell direct? I have never gone into a computer store and received usable advice, they are glorified middle men.
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#17
xenocide
RAM has definitely been decreasing in price for people ordering from the US. I remember pricing out a build sometime last year and almost every 16GB kit of DDR4-3000 or higher was ~$160+. I recently upgraded and got a 16GB kit for $110. So the prices are falling, but not nearly fast enough for a lot of peoples liking. I would say in a few months we'll see $60-80 for 16GB (2x8GB) kits of DDR4-3000 and such.
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#18
Minus Infinity
I guess that's why 32GB DDR4 3200 costs on average $500 with CAS 14 timings in Australia. Yeah real cheap.
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#20
Fatalfury
So 200% price increase over 2 years and now they cant take a 30% drop?
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#21
Khonjel
windwhirl, post: 4007044, member: 175818"
The price drop is happening, at least in some markets.

Today, I can buy a 16 GB 3000 MHz single stick of RAM at a price range between AR$7000 and 9000. Almost a year ago, they were around AR$6000 to 7000. At the time, the currency exchange rate was around AR$20=1 US dollar. Today, it is around 40:1.

More or less, the drop would be between 70 and 120 dollars. Pretty nice, for me at least.
Holy! Wth happened with your currency? Is it always so volatile? Or Venezuela crisis is spiraling to their neighbours.
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#22
Prima.Vera
Aye. Only crappy RAM has seen decrease in prices. 3200+ Mhz are actually getting more expensive....
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#23
windwhirl
Khonjel, post: 4007394, member: 154148"
Holy! Wth happened with your currency? Is it always so volatile? Or Venezuela crisis is spiraling to their neighbours.
Public spending goes out of control, taxes get raised instead of lowered, corruption, inflation rates always high (15% in a year is a good year here)... The list goes on.

Besides that, Argentinians have a never-ending thirst for US dollars (I think that the Fed said somewhere a couple years ago that around 20% of all the dollars outside the US are in Argentina or owned by Argentinians). Here, some of us consider foreign currency, specifically US and sometimes European currency, that loyal friend that never fails when things get tough and always has your back.

The whole Venezuelan crisis is considered by some the alternative outcome of Argentina, due to both countries leaning too much towards the left. In Argentina's case, the crisis was partially avoided due to the current administration leaning less towards the left and ending the anti-US speech of previous administrations, which helped convince the IMF (read: Trump) into lending us money. I personally think they are insane, doing that of all things, but maybe it's just a really expensive research for them...

The sad thing is that we got used to this constant, semi-controlled, economic chaos...

Anyhow, back to topic. Pricing seems to be going down quite a bit, at least against last year's April, for me. Maybe now I can consider planning that Ryzen rig I postponed...
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#24
Easo
eidairaman1, post: 4007014, member: 40556"
Yup until the EU gets involved...
I would not be surprised if a process for dragging the cartel to court has been started some time ago already and is under wraps while proof is being gathered. Problem is, that cases like these always take years until the final decision of the court. And, cartel being the shit they are, will put any fines on us, in form of increased prices, blaming another bullshit issue.
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#25
Khonjel
That's why at least in memory's case I'm excited for Chinese products. Do it. Steal our tech. Undercut them. At least we'll get cheaper products.
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