Tuesday, September 7th 2021

Intel CEO Predicts Chips Will Cost 20% of Future Cars' Bill of Materials by 2030

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger predicts that chips and semiconductors will make up as much of the car's bill-of-materials (BOM) as the engine (or main propulsion) itself. This change will happen as early as in 2030, said Gelsinger, speaking at a keynote address, at the IAA Mobility 2021 show in Munich. Gelsinger's prediction is backed by internal research conducted by Roland Berger, and McKinsey.

As of 2019, chips barely made 4% of a vehicle's BOM, confining mainly to the ECU and an optional infotainment system. By 2030, electronics will take over a more complex set of roles, including full automation, and AI that can drive anywhere. A fully automated vehicle, or AV, will be next big thing in personal transport. Gelsinger predicts a $115 billion TAM (total addressable market) size for automobile semiconductors by the end of the decade.
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73 Comments on Intel CEO Predicts Chips Will Cost 20% of Future Cars' Bill of Materials by 2030

#1
Darmok N Jalad
Maybe by then, car companies will offer 15 and 30 year loans, too.
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#2
MentalAcetylide
Darmok N JaladMaybe by then, car companies will offer 15 and 30 year loans, too.
I would also expect 15 and 30 year towage + rental coverage as well for when every time a software or computer glitch "bricks" the car. Some cars nowadays don't even have keys for the ignition. I think the addition of so much computerization to vehicles is a bad idea, because if and when simple stuff like this breaks, its going to be a lot more inconvenient than a flat tire.
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#3
Xex360
Why don't we have now basic cars instead, lighter, easier to repair, resulting in more affordable and ecological cars.
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#4
TheLostSwede
Xex360Why don't we have now basic cars instead, lighter, easier to repair, resulting in more affordable and ecological cars.
Because no-one wants a Trabant or Lada.
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#5
Daisho11
I'll stick with my dumb car, but thanks. Last thing anyone needs is an AI/self-driving car with more government backdoors waiting to be hijacked. "We saw that you posted X opinion instead of Y on your Faceberg account, so we have decided to revoke your cars driving functionality."
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#6
Rithsom
TheLostSwedeBecause no-one wants a Trabant or Lada.
There is a middle ground that is perfectly acceptable for 99% of all people. It's not like everyone is dying to own a car with a feature set as expansive as that of the Tesla Model X. And it's not like a car with anything less might as well be a Trabant. Everyday, I see plenty of people happily driving around in their 10, 15, or even 20-year-old cars. As long as it has an automatic gearbox, climate control, powered steering, and airbags, your average Joe will more likely than not consider it adequate for daily use.
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#7
lynx29
Xex360Why don't we have now basic cars instead, lighter, easier to repair, resulting in more affordable and ecological cars.
TheLostSwedeBecause no-one wants a Trabant or Lada.
check this thread out Xe

and lostswede... how do you explain every Kia Rio selling out of stock as soon as it comes in stock, yet SUV's and trucks are sitting on car lots as far as the eye can see... and this $4700 car in the link below is outselling Tesla in China. 200k cars a month being sold. people want budget cars, the free markets are just out touch.

www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/cost-effective-transportation-how-to-live-a-better-life-with-more-money-in-your-pocket-8-1-kwh-per-100-km-ev-cars-lets-discuss.286398/#post-4600313
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#8
Metroid
This is what they want us consumers to accept, if china and taiwan rises the price then globalists will go to the next country with cheap labor, in the end supply and demand will speak louder than words, manufactures already want us to accept their manipulation of prices.
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#9
Turmania
First it was the smart phones and tablets now this....
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#10
elghinnarisa
lynx29check this thread out Xe

and lostswede... how do you explain every Kia Rio selling out of stock as soon as it comes in stock, yet SUV's and trucks are sitting on car lots as far as the eye can see... and this $4700 car in the link below is outselling Tesla in China. 200k cars a month being sold. people want budget cars, the free markets are just out touch.

www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/cost-effective-transportation-how-to-live-a-better-life-with-more-money-in-your-pocket-8-1-kwh-per-100-km-ev-cars-lets-discuss.286398/#post-4600313
That seems like a extremely regional specific occurrence, they are mostly unsold here, some sitting for almost 7 years now without moving an inch.

And what sells out in China is relevant... why? Have you been to China? First thing I noticed when i stepped foot there the first time many years ago was that the overwhelming majority of vehicles on the street were electric scooters, with a range of nope and the torque of a toddler. Point is, its a place where vehicles are expensive and income is on average a lot lower.
Wonder why a super cheap car would be popular in such a place?
For reference, those scooters cost 400-500 bucks, brand new. You wanna see what sells well, look at those. Because they are outselling any electric car.
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#11
watzupken
Xex360Why don't we have now basic cars instead, lighter, easier to repair, resulting in more affordable and ecological cars.
Smart cars are an in thing now. Everything needs to be smart, i.e. smart lights, fridge, etc. As electronics get smarter, humans get dumber/ lazier. So now we have AI to do the thinking too. In short, we are planning for our own demise.

Cars nowadays are no longer easy to repair. Generally if it fails you need to replace the circuit board or some electronic component in there. Cars are getting more "efficient", not because there is some scientific breakthrough or something along that line. Basically car companies are swapping out heavy parts in cars and replacing them with PCBs that are significantly lighter. I am no car expert, but I believe this is why we suddenly see cars getting so efficient, as compared to cars that are 10 or more years old.
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#12
Caring1
RithsomThere is a middle ground that is perfectly acceptable for 99% of all people. It's not like everyone is dying to own a car with a feature set as expansive as that of the Tesla Model X. And it's not like a car with anything less might as well be a Trabant. Everyday, I see plenty of people happily driving around in their 10, 15, or even 20-year-old cars. As long as it has an automatic gearbox, climate control, powered steering, and airbags, your average Joe will more likely than not consider it adequate for daily use.
This.
They are selling us cars we don't need, based on content we didn't ask for.
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#13
watzupken
RithsomThere is a middle ground that is perfectly acceptable for 99% of all people. It's not like everyone is dying to own a car with a feature set as expansive as that of the Tesla Model X. And it's not like a car with anything less might as well be a Trabant. Everyday, I see plenty of people happily driving around in their 10, 15, or even 20-year-old cars. As long as it has an automatic gearbox, climate control, powered steering, and airbags, your average Joe will more likely than not consider it adequate for daily use.
This is true. I guess it depends on which camp you are in,
1. Drive because you like to, or,
2. Drive just for the sake of commuting.

I've known people that love driving around, while some just want a car to fetch them from point A to B everyday. Full automation of car takes the fun out of driving. To me, it is like playing a game, but using a program to cheat. So with the program doing all the work, it just takes the fun out of gaming. In addition, I don't feel comfortable for a car to self drive really. With the car being so connected to the big and dangerous web, I am not surprise someone can hack your car system and drive you into a river.
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#14
lemonadesoda
I’d like a modern, efficient car, without all the gadget gizzmos. No, i dont need a giant infotainment system in my car, in fact i hate modern cars that behave like cheap hotel rooms… as soon as you open the door the music/radio/tv comes on.
There’s a reason classic cars are becoming more popular. Make me a modern classic WITHOUT the gizzmos
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#15
Vya Domus
And all of this is because of the mythical "autonomous driving" feature which will likely never be robust enough to be usable.
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#16
Wirko
It looks like the car manufacturers' supply chains aren't brittle enough yet.
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#17
Chomiq
WirkoIt looks like the car manufacturers' supply chains aren't brittle enough yet.
Maybe they will finally realize that they can't simply depend on companies from two countries to make chips for the entire automotive industry.
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#18
TheLostSwede
ChomiqMaybe they will finally realize that they can't simply depend on companies from two countries to make chips for the entire automotive industry.
Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, US of A, Germany, France, Ireland, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Mexico and Costa Rica adds up to two for you?
ICs for cars aren't made on cutting edge nodes and are often made by companies that don't make things end consumers ever see.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants
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#19
Minus Infinity
I can guarantee if Intel becomes a major chip supplier for the automotive industry, those estimates will balloon to about 40% of the total cost.
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#20
Bomby569
The future is AI, chips, tech. These are the companies that will make the rules, what we need is more capacity and more competition, or things will go downhill very fast because now we are all in the hands of a very few companies.

And we all know that if up to Intel prices would be 400€ for a 4 core and 5000€ for a 16 core and more than that is impossible
TheLostSwedeSingapore, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, US of A, Germany, France, Ireland, Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Mexico and Costa Rica adds up to two for you?
ICs for cars aren't made on cutting edge nodes and are often made by companies that don't make things end consumers ever see.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabrication_plants
i might be wrong but i think this is more for advanced chips for AI and not your average low cost chip to control the power steering
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#21
Tardian
Daisho11I'll stick with my dumb car, but thanks. Last thing anyone needs is an AI/self-driving car with more government backdoors waiting to be hijacked. "We saw that you posted X opinion instead of Y on your Faceberg account, so we have decided to revoke your cars driving functionality."
or more likely the doors are locked, the accelerator is floored, the steering wheel ceases to function, and the car reaches near maximum speed before ...

The We could be AI.
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#22
docnorth
TheLostSwedeBecause no-one wants a Trabant or Lada.
As @Rithsom already wrote there is a huge distance between a Trabant and a vehicle for (rich) gadget-maniacs.
RithsomThere is a middle ground that is perfectly acceptable for 99% of all people. It's not like everyone is dying to own a car with a feature set as expansive as that of the Tesla Model X. And it's not like a car with anything less might as well be a Trabant. Everyday, I see plenty of people happily driving around in their 10, 15, or even 20-year-old cars. As long as it has an automatic gearbox, climate control, powered steering, and airbags, your average Joe will more likely than not consider it adequate for daily use.
You nailed it, except of course for the automatic gearbox (for us living outside USA) lol...
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#23
Bomby569
I think IA in cars is good and can prevent lots of accidents. I just don't like the "connected" part, it should all be done offline.
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#24
Tardian
Bomby569I think IA in cars is good and can prevent lots of accidents. I just don't like the "connected" part, it should all be done offline.
The AI can easily be hacked. We have to trust other humans in taxis, buses, planes, and other road users. Now, do I trust the Blue Screen of Death?
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#25
Bomby569
TardianThe AI can easily be hacked. We have to trust other humans in taxis, buses, planes, and other road users. Now, do I trust the Blue Screen of Death?
it's a valid point. I guess they will do like Tesla, a lot of warnings "don't take your hands off the steering whell" tp avoid liability.
But we all know how that is going to go down. If people are texting while driving now, imagine if the car could drive itself. I'm pretty sure there will be people having sex in the back with the car driving itself.
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