Wednesday, April 3rd 2019

PC Memory Prices in Free Fall, Time to Upgrade

Prices of PC DDR4 memory modules are normalizing to 3-year lows as the pre-Summer PC upgrade season looms and several AAA game launches line up. 8 GB (2x 4 GB) dual-channel DDR4 memory kits have dropped to around USD $50 on popular PC component retailers such as Newegg, 16 GB (2x 8 GB) kits can be had for $80 at DDR4-2667 speeds. Premium 16 GB dual-channel kits (DDR4-3200 and above) start at $99. Premium 16 GB kits with RGB embellishments now typically start at $120.

Perhaps the biggest news from these memory price drops come in the form of capacity. 32 GB dual-channel (2x 16 GB) memory kits now start for as little as $144, for a kit with two dual-rank DDR4-2667 modules. Premium 32 GB kits, with RGB lighting and speeds as high as DDR4-3000 now start at $180. HEDT builders also have reason to cheer, as 32 GB quad-channel (4x 8 GB) kits start for as little as $150, and premium kits with DDR4-3000 frequency can be had for as little as $184. Newegg and the US aren't the only places you can find sharp drops in memory prices. Even across the big pond in Germany, we've been tracking significant drops in memory prices, with 16 GB dual-channel kits starting at 79€, premium 16 GB kits around 100€, 32 GB kits at 160€, and premium 32 GB kits around 190€.
Memory prices showed an upward trend since the start of 2017 as the industry witnessed DRAM shortages. Some companies such as Samsung even put out brazen statements that it favors memory prices remaining high as it lets them be profitable and offset losses from their NAND flash portfolio. Market regulators around the world, including the Chinese, found massive evidence of price-fixing among DRAM makers, threatening them with heavy fines and market-access denial. The DRAM industry showed early signs of buckling to pressure from regulators as they revised their Q1-2019 outlook to expect fall in revenue from DRAM, signalling drop in DRAM prices.
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63 Comments on PC Memory Prices in Free Fall, Time to Upgrade

#1
kastriot
Almost there but still no cigar.
Posted on Reply
#2
s3thra
I held off for what seemed like the longest time to upgrade my Ivy Bridge system from 2012, hoping that RAM prices would drop below what I paid for the equivalent amount of memory way back then. After watching prices slowly-but-surely rise, then plateau, then having no immediate signs of dropping, I finally bit the bullet at the end of last year and built my Ryzen system. As much as I now love the upgrade, I still don't feel good about paying so much for RAM.

It's good to see that RAM is finally starting to trickle back down in price.
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#3
sam_86314
So close...

My plan is to buy a 32GB kit once prices get back down to how they were in 2016.
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#4
tigger
I'm the only one
hurry up and free fall in the UK please
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#5
cyneater
Hurry Up Australia go back to the 2014 prices ... Around $350 for 64GB
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#6
tigger
I'm the only one
cyneater, post: 4024069, member: 113386"
Hurry Up Australia go back to the 2014 prices ... Around $350 for 64GB
It's about £250 here just for a 32gb 3000 kit lol
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#9
Robcostyle
Lol, 200$ here for 32gb 2400CL17 kit. What premium for 190 are u talking about? Premium 3200CL14 kit costs like 450$, top-notch 16gb kits over4000mhz with low latency 450$ aswell.
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#11
BakerMan1971
Quad channel kits seem to be holding their own price-wise
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#13
bug
Apparently "I already have all the RAM I need" is not an option. Neither is "I have all the RAM I need, but at these prices, why not?"
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#14
fynxer
Why buy now?! The prices will continue to drop until end of summer.

And even then you buy used memory to cut prices even further.

So if 32GB kit is £80 in shop's you will get them used for around £50-60 depending on speed of course.

Also some thing that is note worthy is that as soon as DDR5 is introduced and manufacturers start move over to DDR5, prices of new DDR4 will stabilize or ever increase so buy your DDR4 memory before that happens.

Use dramexchange.com to predict when prices hit rock bottom, they can ahead of time reliably predict when prices are about to increase by watching supply and demand on the spot market.
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#15
R0H1T
DDR5 is at least a couple of years away, between then & now there's a lot of room for price drop besides another price rise - like you said. What such major price crash does is force DRAM makers to lower production &/or cut R&D, so DDR5 could in theory be delayed even further. Personally I'd say there should be some sort of cap on price rise & crashes of such magnitude, also the sales & marketing dept should get major budget cuts but sadly when revenues drop the dept which gets shafted first isn't this one.
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#16
fynxer
R0H1T, post: 4024125, member: 131092"
DDR5 is at least a couple of years away, between then & now there's a lot of room for price drop besides another price rise - like you said. What such major price crash does is force DRAM makers to lower production &/or cut R&D, so DDR5 could in theory be delayed even further. Personally I'd say there should be some sort of cap on price rise & crashes of such magnitude, also the sales & marketing dept should get major budget cuts but sadly when revenues drop the dept which gets shafted first isn't this one.
DDR5 will NOT be delayed because of DDR4 prices, DDR5 i scheduled to hit data centers in 2019. It is the need from data centers that drive DDR5 development, you can be sure manufacturers are already racing to fill data center demands for more bandwidth with DDR5.

"Data-intensive applications like big data analytics and machine learning will be key drivers for the adoption of DDR5, with enterprise close behind.”

Maybe you mean that DDR5 won't arrive in consumer systems before two year and yes that could be correct BUT the raging CPU war between AMD and Intel could force an earlier adoption of DDR5 in the consumer segment driven by competition where a longer period of co existens with DDR4 and DDR5 will take place until DDR5 over takes DDR4 completely.
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#17
phill
Why is it when your looking to save money, there's a good reason to spend it?? Damn it lol :)

Well at least 32Gb+ won't be such a bank breaker as it has been... Gives you a reason to do stupid things doesn't it when things are a bit cheaper? :)
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#18
PerfectWave
here in italy a small drop in price but not those writtten here
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#19
R0H1T
fynxer, post: 4024131, member: 103789"
DDR5 will NOT be delayed because of DDR4 prices, DDR5 i scheduled to hit data centers in 2019. It is the need from data centers that drive DDR5 development, you can be sure manufacturers are already racing to fill data center demands for more bandwidth with DDR5.

"Data-intensive applications like big data analytics and machine learning will be key drivers for the adoption of DDR5, with enterprise close behind.”

Maybe you mean that DDR5 won't arrive in consumer systems before two year and yes that could be correct BUT the raging CPU war between AMD and Intel could force an earlier adoption of DDR5 in the consumer segment driven by competition where a longer period of co existens with DDR4 and DDR5 will take place until DDR5 over takes DDR4 completely.
There's no DDR5 compatible chips coming in 2019 IIRC, DDR5 will likely debut with mobile devices (LPDRR5) next year & possibly Apple bringing them to the masses first. The delay isn't because of DDR4 but there's no chips to make use of DDR5 AFAIK.

Yes I meant to say DDR5 won't be mainstream before 2021, though if it comes in phones (LPDDR5) then it'll be "mainstream" slightly earlier.
Posted on Reply
#20
bug
fynxer, post: 4024131, member: 103789"
DDR5 will NOT be delayed because of DDR4 prices, DDR5 i scheduled to hit data centers in 2019. It is the need from data centers that drive DDR5 development, you can be sure manufacturers are already racing to fill data center demands for more bandwidth with DDR5.

"Data-intensive applications like big data analytics and machine learning will be key drivers for the adoption of DDR5, with enterprise close behind.”

Maybe you mean that DDR5 won't arrive in consumer systems before two year and yes that could be correct BUT the raging CPU war between AMD and Intel could force an earlier adoption of DDR5 in the consumer segment driven by competition where a longer period of co existens with DDR4 and DDR5 will take place until DDR5 over takes DDR4 completely.
Do you know of any incoming consumer CPU with DDR5 support? If no, when do you think is the earliest we could see one?
If Intel gets their game together, they'll release Ice Lake by the end of this year. The next CPU from them will come at least a year after that. AMD is just about to release Zen2. A Zen2 refresh will probably follow next year and the first chance they have to tinker with the memory controller will be one year after that.
It has been hinted the consumers will be able to buy DDR5 in 2020, but right now I don't see that happening.
Posted on Reply
#21
Chloe Price
The first thing I'll do is to replace these 4x4GB 2400MHz sticks to 2x8GB 3200MHz. Not much over 100eur for a kit like that here in Finland.
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#22
bug
R0H1T, post: 4024135, member: 131092"
Yes I meant to say DDR5 won't be mainstream before 2021, though if it comes in phones (LPDDR5) then it'll be "mainstream" slightly earlier.
I doubt even that. No current Snapdragon supports LPDDR5. If such a chip would be unveiled tomorrow, it will still take year to be integrated into a finished product. And even then, we'd be talking flagships only.

It's going to happen, ships have started to be tapped out. But don't make your RAM purchasing plans based on DDR5 just yet.
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#23
R0H1T
Apple's a pioneer in this, so if they're not releasing an LPDDR5 enabled SoC this year, then next year it'll be coming. You could call it a prediction or intuition but that's how it's gonna be. QC usually follows a year after them. I could also add the rumors about Apple releasing Macbooks with Axx but that's the one thing that keeps getting delayed :ohwell:

I'd say LPDDR5 is a key component in their plans to move away from x86, even if it takes more time than some of us expected.
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#24
TheLostSwede
Prices are back close to the same as they were in September 2016 where I live, as that's when I last bought some RAM. The same sticks I got then doubled in price at the peak of the memory pricing, although they've now been superseded by other products. It's really quite interesting how the pricing fluctuates based on production/demand/price fixing.
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#25
R0H1T
Yes "free markets" don't work as well as intended or how they were "supposed" to, but that opens another Pandora's box wrt unchecked capitalism or the dreaded S word.
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