Thursday, March 25th 2021

ASUS: "Lower Yields Upstream" Responsible for Lack of NVIDIA Chips

In a recent ASUS investor call from March 17th, a company representative explained the company's financial outlook and what it sees as its successes and failures in Q42020. In it, the company referenced the lack of NVIDIA graphics cards to satisfy demand as one of the major hurdles it has had to face. As the company said, "Our guess is that the gap might have been caused by lower yields upstream. As for when [Nvidia] can increase that yield is something hard for us to predict."

This is likely the clearest indicator we've had since NVIDIA's RTX 30-series launch that there is more than a demand problem for NVIDIA's Ampere graphics cards - there's a yield one as well. NVIDIA could have simply failed to predict demand for its graphics cards in wake of the recent cryptomining craze, and asome theorize a miscalculated allocation of wafers with Samsung on expectations of lower demand post-holiday season. That one doesn't make much sense, as by that time, COVID and its effects on tech market demand were already pretty clear. And while NVIDIA certainly doesn't have all available capacity at Samsung's 8 nm at its disposal, there should certainly be more available capacity for NVIDIA's RTX 30-series than say, for AMD's Navi graphics cards, which have to share the 7 nm wafers with virtually all other AMD products (from CPUs to mobile chips to enterprise solutions). The idea of lower upstream yields than would be ideal for NVIDIA does certainly come as a possible reason - a change in foundry partner comes with certain additional difficulties in adapting the design to that given processes' strengths and issues. As always, we'll just have to wait and see.
Sources: via TechSpot, ASUS
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42 Comments on ASUS: "Lower Yields Upstream" Responsible for Lack of NVIDIA Chips

#1
mtcn77
As again, I take credit.
mtcn77Frank Azor is the Alienware dude.
The more important thing is AMD is using TSMC. You won't believe me when I say this, but TSMC likely has better packaging resources than hot headed Samsung. There could arise problems even for the sudden change. TSMC allows IP buildup, but there is zero mention of infrequently changed blocks being transferable to a contemporary foundry. Good luck Nvidia.
mtcn77I'm not raining down on somebody you know someone's parade, but a different foundry and packaging means bye bye quality assurance standard of production, right? People stick to their suppliers and build lasting relationships for a reason.

This is so definitively a 1st world problem, I cannot wrap my head around it.

And you guys wouldn't believe me @R-T-B, such a noob I was...
R-T-BIt's not that I don't/didn't believe you, it's that I don't believe anyone until the facts are present.

So, you guessed right? Woohoo, you still guessed.
The facts?
Posted on Reply
#2
Anymal
From Nvidia's standpoint, the drop of supply in Q1 compared to Q4 makes sense. Fabless chip designers book production capacities quarters in advance. Typically, sales of graphics cards peak in Q3, then drop in Q4, then drop once again in Q1.
Also:
Nvidia supplied about 9.1 million of standalone graphics processors for desktop PCs in Q4 2020, about a million more than it shipped in Q4 2019, according to data by Jon Peddie Research.
Posted on Reply
#3
DeathtoGnomes
caused by lower yields upstream.
what exactly does this mean? is that like expected yields? or Yields that didnt float downstream? or did the Salmon stop swimming farther upstream to mate and birth more cards?
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#4
londiste
DeathtoGnomeswhat exactly does this mean? is that like expected yields? or Yields that didnt float downstream? or did the Salmon stop swimming farther upstream to mate and birth more cards?
Upstream as in things that are upstream to them and float down :D
Basically ASUS is not getting enough components to produce stuff (graphics cards in this case). They do not really know why and throw the "maybe yields" claim into the wind.
Posted on Reply
#5
bug
Our guess is that the gap might have been caused by lower yields upstream.
Just sayin'.
Posted on Reply
#6
Anymal
Upstream as which way only healthy salmons go. Btw, 1mil more gpus in q4 2020 than q4 2019 means Samsung is not the problem, nvidia is hence too small batches going to the end of upstream.

I wish category:

Where all Strixes go.
Posted on Reply
#7
AusWolf
This is exactly what I said at the 30 series launch when there wasn't (and still isn't) a single fully unlocked GPU die anywhere in the product stack. I also said this when rumours emerged of nvidia abandoning Samsung for TSMC to produce their later chips. I also said this when the GA104 die that already had locked parts in the 3070 made its way into the 3060 Ti with more locked parts. Everybody was like "nooo, it's the scalpers", "nooo, it's the miners". Yeah, right. :rolleyes: The scalpers are exploiting a pre-existing problem, they're not the source of it.

I still hold my opinion that we're seeing a shortage of nvidia GPUs mostly because yields at Samsung's 8 nm fab are bad. As for AMD, their allocation at TSMC goes mostly into console chip production and CPUs, that I personally see a lot more of in stock. Ryzen 5000 series have been widely available in the UK for months now (except for Ryzen 9 chips that tend to run out of stock from time to time).
Posted on Reply
#8
trog100
all it really means is that the shortage of graphics cards is gonna get worse and the prices will go higher..

trog
Posted on Reply
#9
neatfeatguy
I don't know....

I still find it hard to believe that any AIB or direct manufacturer had difficulties making enough GPUs to feed a lot of the gamer's needs. All the images floating around with tons of current gen GPUs mining shortly after the GPUs launched (and some even before they officially went on sale).....these places didn't just walk into their local Best Buy and purchase carts or pallets worth of GPUs from them.

Now that so much has gone out to places, other than retail, companies are now having troubles keeping up due to supply being spread out amongst all manufacturers. What better way to shrug off the blame of how the company has behaved other than to point fingers at someone else....

So, here's to Nvidia and Samsung. It is all your fault for the shortage of cards that have made it out gamers. AIB partners are now suffering because your inability to drown these companies in enough chips for them to push out mass production. For shame, Nvidia and Samsung. For shame!
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#10
HD64G
Yields or direct sell to big mining farms? Your choice but both are nVidia's problem to solve and thus far haven't managed to do so.
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#11
Dristun
Look, Nvidia posted record revenues in Gaming and Data Center segments just a month ago. Those revenues are up way more than just the respective increases in their ASP across the product line would suggest, meaning that almost certainly the actual shipment numbers are also higher. They made a ton of chips and they all sold out immediately. Then you have multiple reports of AIBs selling directly to miners.

When you put it all together, it's hard to reconcile this with all the "rumours and guesses" we hear every time someone asks the vendors "where are the cards?".
You know where they are, lol, come on!
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#12
commission3r
This is old news being confirmed. If anyone here had watched or followed AdoredTV or Moore's Law Is Dead then this wouldn't come as a surprise to you although Asus exposing Nvidia, i did not expect.
Strategy for Nvidia was to keep supply low and prices high
Posted on Reply
#13
bug
commission3rThis is old news being confirmed. If anyone here had watched or followed AdoredTV or Moore's Law Is Dead then this wouldn't come as a surprise to you although Asus exposing Nvidia, i did not expect.
Strategy for Nvidia was to keep supply low and prices high
Really, Asus' guess is "news being confirmed"?
Oh, who am I kidding, that's why the article exists, I knew this will happen.
Posted on Reply
#14
sepheronx
It becomes even harder when bots are used to obtain these cards whenever they drop.
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#15
rodneyhchef
3080s have completely dried up in the UK. I still get stock notifications of the 3070 and 3090 but the 3080 is crazy short in comparison

A UK Twitter page posted a link to a clothing website that started to sell MSI products. They accidentally listed a 3080 gaming X trio among the products. They apparently sold 5000 units in 1 day but they didn’t actually have any.

Scan UK had about 500 preorders at the start of the year for the 3080 and they still have over 200 that haven’t been fulfilled yet

really bad here right now!
Posted on Reply
#16
Anymal
Even mighty mindfactory.
mindfactory.de
Total Gaming GPU Sales Week 12
Nvidia Units 2255 = 67.61%
Radeon Units 1080 = 32.39%


Radeon Top 5 Selling Brand Line

RX 6700XT = +285 Units.
RX 6800XT = 285 Units.
RX 6800 = 270 Units
RX 6900XT = 170 Units.
RX 550 = 50 Units.


Nvidia Top 5 Selling Brand Lines!

RTX 3070 10GB = 690 Units.
RTX 3060 12GB = 470 Units
GTX 1660 Super = 350 Units.
RTX 2060 6GB = 165 Units.
RTX 3090 24GB = 130 Units.
Posted on Reply
#17
sepheronx
so that means my best bet is a 3090 instead of a 3080?
Posted on Reply
#18
bug
sepheronxso that means my best bet is a 3090 instead of a 3080?
I think your best bet is keeping your money and enjoying your current card for a while longer.
Posted on Reply
#19
Anymal
If only he stays with 1080p display.
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#20
bug
AnymalIf only he stays with 1080p display.
I've been gaming at 640x480 and even 320x200. I will never complain about FHD ;)
Posted on Reply
#21
Anymal
Me2. From 320x240 to 640x480 on 14" CRT was great in 1998. Half life on 800x600? Gorgeous!
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#22
AusWolf
AnymalMe2. From 320x240 to 640x480 on 14" CRT was great in 1998. Half life on 800x600? Gorgeous!
That's a luxury. I used to play Half-Life at 320x240 because my 4 MB S3 ViRGE graphics card wasn't very happy with Direct3D. Good old times! :rolleyes:

Anyway, I don't think anybody needs a certain monitor resolution, or a certain input. More depends on the size of your panel. I can imagine you'd want 1440p above 25", but below that, I think 1080 is absolutely fine.
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#23
dicobalt
Smells like Samsung 8nm is about as ready for showtime as Intel 10nm.
Posted on Reply
#24
Anymal
Smells like..., NOT!
In q4 2020 Nvidia supplied 1 mil gpus more than in q4 2019.
Posted on Reply
#25
AusWolf
AnymalSmells like..., NOT!
In q4 2020 Nvidia supplied 1 mil gpus more than in q4 2019.
Supplied whom?

A friend/colleague of mine ordered a Palit 3070 in November. She was #28 on the preorder list. Now she's #2, and has been for the last month. If one of the largest retailers of the UK gets only 26 graphics cards of a certain brand during 5 months, then no sales statistic data can tell me that the situation is nice and shiny. Statistics can easily be falsified.
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