Tuesday, April 20th 2021

DRAM Prices Projected to Rise by 18-23% QoQ in 2Q21 Owing to Peak Season Demand, Says TrendForce

TrendForce's investigations find that DRAM suppliers and major PC OEMs are currently participating in the critical period of negotiating with each other over contract prices for 2Q21. Although these negotiations have yet to be finalized, the ASP of mainstream DDR4 1G*8 2666 Mbps modules has already increased by nearly 25% QoQ as of now, according to data on ongoing transactions. This represents a higher price hike than TrendForce's prior forecast of "nearly 20%". On the other hand, prices are likewise rising across various DRAM product categories in 2Q21, including DDR3/4 specialty DRAM, mobile DRAM, graphics DRAM, and in particular server DRAM, which is highly related to PC DRAM and is therefore also undergoing a higher price hike than previously expected. TrendForce is therefore revising up its forecast of overall DRAM price hike for 2Q21 from 13-18% QoQ to 18-23% QoQ instead. However, the actual increase in prices of various DRAM product categories will depend on the production capacities allocated to the respective products by DRAM suppliers.
PC DRAM prices are now expected to undergo a 23-28% QoQ growth in 2Q21 due to the increased production of notebook computers
PC DRAM contract prices are rising by a higher margin than previously expected for 2Q21 primarily because major PC OEMs are now aggressively expanding their production targets. Furthermore, as second quarters are generally peak seasons for notebook production, PC ODMs are now estimated to increase their quarterly production of notebook computers by about 7.9% QoQ in 2Q21. Finally, with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccination rates remain relatively low across the globe, meaning WFH and distance education are likely to persist and create continued demand for notebook computers, thereby further expanding the hike in PC DRAM prices.

DRAM Suppliers will enjoy increased bargaining power in price negotiations as server DRAM prices are expected to increase by 20-25% QoQ in 2Q21
Apart from the issue of short DRAM supply, server DRAM procurement in 2Q21 has benefitted from the positive turn in the view of enterprises toward IT investments as well as the stronger-than-expected demand related to cloud migration. There was already a supply gap in 1Q21, and these developments will further drive up demand in 2Q21. Hence, difficulty has increased for buyers and suppliers in reaching an agreement on price. Suppliers are in a more advantageous position in contract negotiations since the DRAM market is an oligopoly. Therefore, compared to the previous forecast of nearly 20%, TrendForce is now expecting server DRAM contract prices to increase by 20-25% QoQ in 2Q21.
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15 Comments on DRAM Prices Projected to Rise by 18-23% QoQ in 2Q21 Owing to Peak Season Demand, Says TrendForce

#1
Arcdar
yeah.... luckily DRAM prices didn't already rise more than three times since the beginning of 2020 and the limitations right now (increasing the Supply/Demand preasure on the market) are not artificial.

capacity limits are known since end of 2019 in all areas from DDR4 for consumer/server products as well as gddr-products yet the overall volume/capacity in production facilities didn't increase in the way they could have - and should have looking at the investments into plants/hardware making it obvious that everyone is happy to take a piece of the cake knowing that even those who waited upgrading through the last spikes will soon get to a point where they will need to upgrade / don't want to push the upgrade even further down the line and "suck it up" ...
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#2
sepheronx
Purchased this at $90 CAD.

www.amazon.ca/Corsair-CMK16GX4M2Z3200C16-Vengeance-Memory-PC4-25600/dp/B072LX99L9/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?dchild=1&keywords=corsair+LPX+3600+16gb&qid=1618909224&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEyUlgzNVBYSkZDUzFKJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwNDk3NDU3MlJZNTFGSENKUTUzNCZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUEwNzk3MTYwMlRNSjlWSTM3NlpaNSZ3aWRnZXROYW1lPXNwX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU=

Look at the price now. I expect it to get worst.
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#3
stimpy88
... More honest than a "fire", I suppose, although it feels like the latest industry dogpiling trend.
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#4
TheDeeGee
Peak season of people stumbling over water buckets.
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#5
Wirko
Hum hum, I've heard that the DAG size only goes up and never down, and Trendforce has heard of that, too.
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#6
AusWolf
Maybe I'm too ignorant to know such common facts, but... what's QoQ? :wtf:
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#7
TheinsanegamerN
AusWolf
Maybe I'm too ignorant to know such common facts, but... what's QoQ? :wtf:
Quarter over quarter.

In relation to the article: fucking bullshit. Every single claim these memory manufacturers spread is total bullshit.
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#8
Prime2515102
If this is true, sweet! My RAM will be the same price I paid three years ago and I can finally sell it for a decent price.

Two graphics cards I bought at the same time are actually selling for more than I paid too.

What a wacky world we live in...
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#9
Chomiq
Let me know when they'll actually announce price decrease for a change.
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#10
milewski1015
sepheronx
Purchased this at $90 CAD.

www.amazon.ca/Corsair-CMK16GX4M2Z3200C16-Vengeance-Memory-PC4-25600/dp/B072LX99L9/ref=sr_1_1_sspa?dchild=1&keywords=corsair+LPX+3600+16gb&qid=1618909224&sr=8-1-spons&psc=1&spLa=ZW5jcnlwdGVkUXVhbGlmaWVyPUEyUlgzNVBYSkZDUzFKJmVuY3J5cHRlZElkPUEwNDk3NDU3MlJZNTFGSENKUTUzNCZlbmNyeXB0ZWRBZElkPUEwNzk3MTYwMlRNSjlWSTM3NlpaNSZ3aWRnZXROYW1lPXNwX2F0ZiZhY3Rpb249Y2xpY2tSZWRpcmVjdCZkb05vdExvZ0NsaWNrPXRydWU=

Look at the price now. I expect it to get worst.
I got my current 2x8 Vengeance LPX 3000 C15 kit for 124 USD on sale back in 2018. Sad to see the prices for everything increasing again.
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#11
Colddecked
Memory has been pretty cheap for a long time. I've gotten 2 sets of 16gb 3200+ ddr4 for under 50 dollars each the past year, one of those being micron edie. It was only a matter of time before they started raising prices unfortunately.
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#12
milewski1015
Colddecked
Memory has been pretty cheap for a long time. I've gotten 2 sets of 16gb 3200+ ddr4 for under 50 dollars each the past year, one of those being micron edie. It was only a matter of time before they started raising prices unfortunately.
Yeah, it really dropped for a while. If I had needed an upgrade I would've jumped on one back then. Inevitable for them to go back up, sure, but it's sad to see them up to crypto craze prices again instead of just slightly increased over the low prices they were.
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#13
Minus Infinity
So glad I got my 32GB memory last month at excellent price and have now finally built my new system. I can hoipefully ride out the next 12-24 months without any need to do upgrades barring hardware failures.
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