Tuesday, October 3rd 2023

Analyst Forecasts TSMC Raking in $100 Billion by 2025

Pierre Ferragu, the Global Technology Infrastructure chief at New Street Research, has predicted a very positive 2025 financial outcome for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC). A global slowdown in consumer purchasing of personal computers and smartphones has affected a number of companies including the likes of NVIDIA and AMD—their financial reports have projected a 10% annual revenue drop for 2023. TSMC has similarly forecast that its full year revenue for 2023 will settle at $68.31 billion, after an approximate 10% fall. Ferragu did not contest these figures—via his team's analysis—TSMC is expected to pull in $68 billion in net sales for this financial year.

The rumor mill has TSMC revising its revenue guidance for a third time this year—but company leadership has denied that this will occur. New Street Research estimates that conditions will improve next year, with an uptick in client orders placed at TSMC's foundries. Ferragu reckons that TSMC could hit an all-time revenue high of $100 billion by 2025. His hunch is based on the upcoming spending habits of VIP foundry patrons encompassing: "a bottom-up perspective, looking at how TSMC's top customers, which we all know very well, will contribute to such growth." The Taiwanese foundry's order books are reported to be filling up for next year, with Apple and NVIDIA seizing the moment to stand firmly at the front of the 3 nm process queue.
Sources: Barron's, Wccftech, NSR
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9 Comments on Analyst Forecasts TSMC Raking in $100 Billion by 2025

#1
AnotherReader
Apple has no contenders for early access to N3. In fact, most are expected to use the slightly looser N3E node.
Posted on Reply
#2
sethmatrix7
Or depending on China they could be raking in 0 dollars.
Posted on Reply
#3
AnotherReader
sethmatrix7Or depending on China they could be raking in 0 dollars.
That's rather unlikely. China likes to saber rattle, but when was the last time they invaded another country?
Posted on Reply
#4
Easo
sethmatrix7Or depending on China they could be raking in 0 dollars.
Not sooner than 2025, even by Taiwan's own judgement. Their fleet building program will have done the minimum needed by then, possibly later.
Posted on Reply
#5
Space Lynx
Astronaut
TSMC is actually pretty dumb of a company really, they are pretty much a monopoly and everyone in the world wants them, there is no reason they shouldn't be a trillion dollar company.

Raise them prices, and guess what, the buyers will still come TSMC. Cause AI is the new God King that the short term wealthy folks are frothing at the mouth for.
Posted on Reply
#6
shoskunk
AnotherReaderApple has no contenders for early access to N3. In fact, most are expected to use the slightly looser N3E node.
N3E is not a "slightly looser node":

www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/technology/logic/l_3nm
Space LynxTSMC is actually pretty dumb of a company really, they are pretty much a monopoly and everyone in the world wants them, there is no reason they shouldn't be a trillion dollar company.

Raise them prices, and guess what, the buyers will still come TSMC. Cause AI is the new God King that the short term wealthy folks are frothing at the mouth for.
TSMC, Intel, Samsung. AMD is going to rework their fabs and will be back in the game, similar to Intel.

If anything, TSMC will lose cpu and gpu volume long-term. These companies don't just make cpus and gpus..

Current AI offerings are pretty dumb when compared with actual measured intelligence. It's a flash in the pan for now and will settle down to more realistic goals, near-term.
Posted on Reply
#7
AnotherReader
shoskunkN3E is not a "slightly looser node":

www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/technology/logic/l_3nm




TSMC, Intel, Samsung. AMD is going to rework their fabs and will be back in the game, similar to Intel.

If anything, TSMC will lose cpu and gpu volume long-term. These companies don't just make cpus and gpus..

Current AI offerings are pretty dumb when compared with actual measured intelligence. It's a flash in the pan for now and will settle down to more realistic goals, near-term.
N3E is less dense than what Apple is using:
The trade-off is that N3E offers lower logic density than N3, and it has the same SRAM cell size as TSMC's N5 node, making it somewhat less attractive to those customers who are driving for density/area gains
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