Monday, October 22nd 2018

Intel Could Have Killed 10 nm Process According to SemiAccurate Report [Updated]

Update: Intel has made an official statement on Twitter denying this and explaining that "Media reports published today that Intel is ending work on the 10nm process are untrue. We are making good progress on 10nm. Yields are improving consistent with the timeline we shared during our last earnings report."

Intel has been talking for years about the leap to the 10 nm process, a technology whose launch has been delayed time and time again. We were supposed to start seeing these microprocessors in 2016, but that date was postponed to 2017 and later to 2018. The manufacturer assumed the problems once again this year, but made a new promise: you will have 10 nm processors by the end of 2019.

The market seems to continue to trust Intel despite everything. Others, on the other hand, say that Intel is about to announce the total cancellation of this project. You have to take this news of Charlie Demerjian in SemiAccurate not with a grain of salt, but with a lot of grains of salt, because according to their sources, Intel would have already killed the process of 10 nm. This analyst has maintained the theory that Intel would never take that step, and in his analysis indicates that in his opinion this is the right decision. Evidently there has not been any official confirmation or comment from Intel, so for the moment Demerjian's statement raises many doubts and could be mere speculation.
In SemiAccurate they mention reliable sources that indicate that Intel has already taken this decision, which they welcome as being the most accurate despite the economic cost that such abandonment could cause in Intel. Demerjian not only reveals that Intel has decided to abandon this 10 nm process, but also adds that Intel's discourse has been deceptive all along: what it said publicly and its internal discourse were very different things.

Events at Intel don't help to clarify the situation. With Krzanich out, there is now new information that indicates Intel splitting manufacturing into three different segments. The problems with 10 nm silicon fabrication continue, and some analysts have mentioned how Intel is at least 5 years behind TSMC and may never catch up. On the other hand, recent reports give us (and their stock) some optimism, but the recent piece published at SemiAccurate shakes things up again. Source: SemiAccurate
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32 Comments on Intel Could Have Killed 10 nm Process According to SemiAccurate Report [Updated]

#1
Durvelle27
Now lets just see how things play out
Posted on Reply
#2
R0H1T
Intel's discourse has been deceptive all along: what it said publicly and its internal discourse were very different things.
If you've followed Intel over the years, this is their modus operandi. Having said that if 10nm is indeed shelved they'll have to publicly acknowledge it sooner or later, then we'll see the investor reactions.
Posted on Reply
#3
john_
It's Charlie. 90% possibility of not happening, 10% of being a huge exclusivity.

Intel is in a position that probably is examining three scenarios.

- Changing specs and going for 12nm, but in this case, can it stay competitive?(I can't believe I am writing this for Intel's manufacturing)

- Keep trying with 10nm. But what if it keeps failing?

- Do what Charlie says and announce plans to move quickly to 7nm.
Posted on Reply
#4
TheGuruStud
john_, post: 3927616, member: 137560"
It's Charlie. 90% possibility of not happening, 10% of being a huge exclusivity.

Intel is in a position that probably is examining three scenarios.

- Changing specs and going for 12nm, but in this case, can it stay competitive?(I can't believe I am writing this for Intel's manufacturing)

- Keep trying with 10nm. But what if it keeps failing?

- Do what Charlie says and announce plans to move quickly to 7nm.
I assume the rumors of a reworked process are true. Basically, they'll make it slightly less dense, so it actually possible to produce. But they would have had to start that a long time ago, I guess.

IF cancellation were true, then their stock would tank like 1929. That would be the best present ever. You would be able to see the rats fleeing in droves.
Posted on Reply
#5
lexluthermiester
dmartin, post: 3927601, member: 181885"
so for the moment Demerjian's statement raises many doubts and could be mere speculation.
This is all there is to say until Intel chimes in. This theory is doubtful for many reasons.

dmartin, post: 3927601, member: 181885"
The problems with 10 nm silicon fabrication continue, and some analysts have mentioned how Intel is at least 5 years behind TSMC and may never catch up.
This is a total nonsense statement. Intel is, at most, 9 months behind TSMC and only because Intel uses different lithography and wafer production methods. They won't stay behind for long. Those analyst's are making assumptions they can not back up with evidence.
Posted on Reply
#6
Src
Intel's response
[MEDIA=twitter]1054397715071651841[/MEDIA]
Posted on Reply
#7
ppn
In favor of 7nm EUV no less.
Posted on Reply
#8
Octavean
Duke Nukem Forever called, he wants his king of procrastination crown back.
Posted on Reply
#9
hat
Enthusiast
They've been working on 10nm for so long, and just recently they've said they're making progress with it... now they're just gonna dump it? They'd be wasting billions in R&D money and so much time to get to this point. Seems unlikely to me.
Posted on Reply
#10
champsilva
SemiAccurate is kinda known for t4lk shit about intel.

Isnt the first, nor the second time.
Posted on Reply
#12
lexluthermiester
hat, post: 3927703, member: 32804"
They've been working on 10nm for so long, and just recently they've said they're making progress with it... now they're just gonna dump it? They'd be wasting billions in R&D money and so much time to get to this point. Seems unlikely to me.
Exactly. Makes zero sense.
Posted on Reply
#14
TheGuruStud
lexluthermiester, post: 3927667, member: 134537"
This is all there is to say until Intel chimes in. This theory is doubtful for many reasons.


This is a total nonsense statement. Intel is, at most, 9 months behind TSMC and only because Intel uses different lithography and wafer production methods. They won't stay behind for long. Those analyst's are making assumptions they can not back up with evidence.
What did they say is coming end of 2019 (if they said anything)? I doubt it's 8 core+. Low end and mobile, I bet. The power and clocks aren't there and won't be. They could be 2 yrs behind. Ice lake high end/server could easily be end of 2020.
Posted on Reply
#15
RealNeil
All they have to do is get the date right, and they're SemiAccurate!
Posted on Reply
#16
XiGMAKiD
This and Intel backing off from 3D Xpoint, there are something awful going on Intel's inside. But I still hope that their dGPU is actually gonna worth a consideration though
Posted on Reply
#17
Captain_Tom
Two things are true: SemiAccurate should only ever be taken for EXACTLY what their sources say (because Charlie's extrapolation is always anti-intel, but his sources are good), and also it's not crazy to say Intel lied about anything.

Intel lies all the time lol, it's kinda their thing. It's certainly possible for Intel to cancel 10nm at this point. In fact only a fanboy or simpleton would think this is surprising news. I mean really people, 10nm has been delayed so many times that it would be a deviation from the norm if they DIDNT delay it again...
Posted on Reply
#18
hat
Enthusiast
XiGMAKiD, post: 3927808, member: 161561"
This and Intel backing off from 3D Xpoint, there are something awful going on Intel's inside. But I still hope that their dGPU is actually gonna worth a consideration though
I thought Micron essentially bought that out? Optane was always a niche thing anyways... small and expensive even if it is really fast, in a world where bigger, cheaper NVMe drives already exist with blistering speeds...
Posted on Reply
#19
XiGMAKiD
hat, post: 3927815, member: 32804"
I thought Micron essentially bought that out? Optane was always a niche thing anyways... small and expensive even if it is really fast, in a world where bigger, cheaper NVMe drives already exist with blistering speeds...
Yes, and I like the idea of Optane memory but somehow Intel and Micron decided to not go with what Samsung does with their PRO drive by making a slightly faster but more expensive options for the market by using 3D MLC, the 3D TLC on EVO is good enough for most people but for people with expendable income the PRO is there
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#20
StrayKAT
I didn't buy it for this, but I'm starting to see my Optane also has the benefit of U.2.. and not being as hot as one of those 970s sitting on your motherboard.
Posted on Reply
#21
mtcn77
If anything, they would have renamed it to 6nm since they always use this as a branding scheme.
Posted on Reply
#22
TheGuruStud
Captain_Tom, post: 3927810, member: 155434"
Two things are true: SemiAccurate should only ever be taken for EXACTLY what their sources say (because Charlie's extrapolation is always anti-intel, but his sources are good), and also it's not crazy to say Intel lied about anything.

Intel lies all the time lol, it's kinda their thing. It's certainly possible for Intel to cancel 10nm at this point. In fact only a fanboy or simpleton would think this is surprising news. I mean really people, 10nm has been delayed so many times that it would be a deviation from the norm if they DIDNT delay it again...
Makes me think that if there's truth in his sources that intel has killed 10nm for mainstream and up, b/c it's too fundamentally broken to save. They could do modems, mobile and maybe low end desktop. Obviously, the rest they would just have to bleed and lose half their value on in the next 2 years haha. Cmon intel losers, I need this as a b-day present. It is pretty damning that we're at the end of 2018 and besides the couple dies that weren't defective that were sold to lenovo, we've still seen NOTHING. And given the BS lenovo chips, you know intel is trying to tout that 10nm isn't broken. So much silence.
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#23
Dave65
Sorry, but I have a very hard time believing Intel these days.
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#24
Xzibit
Intels earning call is this Thurday.

Got to see what their outlook is like, especially how they word it.
Posted on Reply
#25
First Strike
Well I don't know how you think about the source. But after reading 2 articles from Mr. Demerjian @ SemiAccurate, specifically the two linked in your article, I think they are trolls, and very bad trolls. A crank and narcissist in my opinion.

They infer i3-8121U's power consumption from ark.intel.com, I don't know if it is professionalism or pure foolishness.
Posted on Reply
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