That's one possible path to the grave.

Twist: they are moving to release Sony exclusives.

I've mentioned this before, but I think the best path forward for both Xbox and Sony to regain their status and make exclusives worthwhile is to leverage AI tools on-device in games. This is probably why their next-gen consoles are rumored to have 40GB+ of RAM. You can have 16GB to run a LLM powering interactive NPCs and still have enough to run the game itself.

This could never be done on PC, no game can be successful (yet) if it can only be played by people with a 5090 or 6090, or 64GB of RAM and an NPU. But consoles would provide a market for those games.

So console exclusives would return to being an actual technical limitation of the console, where it provides capabilities that the vast majority of PC gamers do not have.

The problem with exclusive in this day and age is, consoles are not cheap,the first-party games are a smaller slice of the pie of great games on the systems.
Sony by virtue of having a large install base mostly, and sure there may be enough first-party sony games to make it worth it too.
Nintendo can use it because most people buy Nintendo systems for Nintendo games anyway.
Microsoft as much as they have bought, not sure if they have enough system sellers, that are unique enough.

If MS and Sony are serious about maintaining their console business then time-limited exclusives are necessary to drive sales from the FOMO crowd. This seems like a simple business decision, especially if you can count on non-FOMO PC gamers to wait 1-2 years for exclusivity expiration to buy. Seems like it worked for a lot of games like GTA, H:ZD/FW, Forza, GoW and others. Sony and MS' bean counters will define it though, do they make more from console sales (at a loss, d'oh!) plus game profits vs. releasing on PC? Is there even a case where these can be compared effectively?

If microsoft and Sony are trying to motivate sales of their console systems, it's not going to work. Why? Because there are A LOT of games to play and choice is not a problem. We don't need the exclusives or the console system they're running on. We'll just move along and that's money microsoft and Sony won't get.

TADA!

While Sony and Nintendo can get away with console exclusives, if Microsoft tries it, I bet it will backfire spectacularly. Microsoft is currently in no position to attempt it. Besides, with console prices on the increase, it really would be a stupid time; that goes for Sony as well.

Console exclusives I’ve always found to be absolutely stupid, especially in this day and age where games can cost an insane amount of money. Why cut out millions of potential customers just because you want to make a little extra selling consoles?

lexluthermiesterIf microsoft and Sony are trying to motivate sales of their console systems, it's not going to work. Why? Because there are A LOT of games to play and choice is not a problem. We don't need the exclusives or the console system they're running on. We'll just move along and that's money microsoft and Sony won't get.

TADA!

Yeah, it's not like those AAA/AAAA games are the money makers to begin with. Infact, they've been hot garbage the past few years.

Yeah for sure they are. She totally killed “this is an Xbox”.

It's not likely to work with Xbox, esp. if they're just going to also release it on PC at the same time or with a slight delay (either as a Gamepass exclusive before hitting Steam/Epic/GoG, or just on the Xbox console).

Sony and Nintendo can afford to keep a closed garden arrangement, though I do expect Sony will just make theirs timed exclusives; after all, they did gain extra money selling games on PC later. The timed delay didn't actually hurt them in the long run, even granting some of them second wind as hype built towards the PC release and inspired fresh runs on PS before then.

And if anything, making exclusives will hopefully force studios to make better games and force publishers and console makers to demand better quality games, period. Optimized for the console (and basically PC, given the above mid-range PC specs), and interesting enough to want to buy a console and the game in the first place. Not just push out generic AAA slop that has nothing of value to them. Sony themselves are sitting on a massive pile of dormant IP to make ranging from the low-end, fun games probably worth a 10 dollar drop to high-end AAA games. Xbox is too, but again, they're kind of tied to releasing on PC, blunting their advantage.

The only thing that needs to remain the same is universal cross-play in online games, esp. once a former exclusive goes to PC (or to Nintendo).

An Xbox exclusive is really just an Xbox/GamePass ecosystem exclusive. It covers PC, Xbox, handhelds, and browsers. You can still literally play it on any device you want (besides Switch and PlayStation?). Having said PlayStation, it has a browser right? Should be able to cloud play Xbox games on their browser, no? Just won't be able to buy certain games on Steam, Epic, etc.

Don't really see how not releasing on Steam is going to push Xbox console sales. Main thing it would push is people who only play on PlayStation buy an Xbox. So then the question is, how many PS players also already own and game on a PC? Not really sure their would be much to gain there. But outside actual Xbox consoles, they are also in the business to sell accessories which I am sure have great margins.

It'll be interesting but I don't think it will "save" Xbox consoles. Or increase hardware sales in a meaningful way. And really, selling 35-50million units isn't anything to laugh at. Might end up just being better getting more people into the Xbox/GamePass ecosystem. Selling more subs.

mrnagantBut outside actual Xbox consoles, they are also in the business to sell accessories which I am sure have great margins.

At this point, given that most of Xbox' peripherals can also be used with Windows, they're probably not going to be making any more sales than they already are.