Thursday, May 26th 2016

Rosenblatt Securities: "Buy" Rating to AMD Stock, "Sell" for Intel

On the back of impressive performance, yield, and cost metric for AMD's market-warping Ryzen and server-shaking EPYC processors, securities firm Rosenblatt Securities' Hans Mosesmann has affirmed a "Buy" rating for AMD's stock, while saddling Intel with a seldom-seen "Sell". All in all, there have been a number of changes in Intel's market ratings; there seems to be a downgrade trend towards either "Hold" or "Sell" scenarios compared to the usual "Buy" ratings given by hedge funds and financial analysts - ratings which are undoubtedly affected (at least in part) by AMD's Ryzen and EPYC execution.
Rosenblatt Securities' move stands mainly on two factors: AMD's EPYC single and dual-socket outlooks, with higher core-count and PCIe lanes in their single-socket offerings compared to Intel's dual-socket Xeon, with "half the area, big memory bandwidth and I/O advantages for EPYC." AMD's single-socket is expected to offer around 30% savings in total cost over a comparable Intel dual-socket platform. Mosesmann also mentions Ryzen's wins in die-area compared to Intel (with Ryzen being up to 10% smaller than Intel's platform. Additional news (well, more like rumors at this point, but analysts may have more information than we do) on Ryzen's yields beating expectations, at over 80% for fully-functional 8-core dies, also served to shake this recommendation. This speaks to AMD's current momentum in the high-performance x86 market. Hands and hats down to AMD, Jim Keller and his team, as well as to Lisa Su's leadership, for this momentous fight-back, clawing their way to relevance again.
Sources: Barrons, NASDAQ, American banking News, SportsPerspectives, NextPlatform, EETimes, Bits and Chips
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59 Comments on Rosenblatt Securities: "Buy" Rating to AMD Stock, "Sell" for Intel

#1
RejZoR
AMD is really attacking with full force on all fronts as far as CPU's go. I wish they were so aggressive on the GPU front as well.
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#2
qubit
Overclocked quantum bit
It's financial analyst news like this more than anything else which tells you that AMD is doing something right.

rejzor, hopefully Vega will be decent as well. We really don't have enough solid information yet to judge it. I'd love to see NVIDIA put in their place with decent competition.
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#3
ratirt
I only hope that AMD didn't put all the effort for CPU market and will leave the GPU behind a bit. NV is strong too and those announcements, leaks of the Volta architecture are kinda grim for AMD. I only hope Vega will be a good product and they didn't ditch GPU market just to CPU fight with Intel.
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#4
R0H1T
ratirt said:
I only hope that AMD didn't put all the effort for CPU market and will leave the GPU behind a bit. NV is strong too and those announcements, leaks of the Volta architecture are kinda grim for AMD. I only hope Vega will be a good product and they didn't ditch GPU market just to CPU fight with Intel.
They can't afford to, even with Ryzen CPU's they'll need the upcoming APU to gain traction in the desktop & notebook market, especially the latter. You have to remember that the APU is still the biggest seller for Intel, outside of servers, plus lately they've made a lot of money selling high end APU for MS' Surface & Apple's Macbook.

A Vega based APU will go a long way to bring AMD back into the notebook fold, APU is where the real fight is & I bet Intel will have to lower their prices in the segment, unlike HEDT or high(er) end i5/i7 lineup.
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#5
john_
The only certain is that Intel's stock is locked at around 36 dollars. It's like putting your money in the bank with interest rates whatever is the percentage of dividends Intel pays.
On the other hand we have AMD and Nvidia. As long as GPU is looking like the future for many new compute tasks, Nvidia is a money maker and AMD a probable fortune maker. Of course things can change rapidly in just one day, that's how it is with technology.
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#6
bug
It's good news for AMD, though I expect this to happen before any product launch.
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#7
the54thvoid
The unfortunate reality though is this:

What would you rather have:

A 4/8 CPU at 5.0Ghz or 4.1Ghz

A 8/16 CPU at 4.5Ghz or 4.1Ghz

I chose AMD and opted for the 8/16 but it is only at a 95% stable 3.9Ghz. I could shortly buy a base clocked Skylake-E at 4Ghz base clock (if rumours are true).

The only thing that keeps AMD alive is their cheaper pricing for a slightly inferior CPU. If they had frequency and performance parity with INtel, AMD chips probably wouldn't be as cheap. Both companies might well meet in the middle. I look forward to Ryzen+ so i can use my existing mobo and get 10% better clocks.
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#8
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
the54thvoid said:
The unfortunate reality though is this:

What would you rather have:

A 4/8 CPU at 5.0Ghz or 4.1Ghz

A 8/16 CPU at 4.5Ghz or 4.1Ghz

I chose AMD and opted for the 8/16 but it is only at a 95% stable 3.9Ghz. I could shortly buy a base clocked Skylake-E at 4Ghz base clock (if rumours are true).

The only thing that keeps AMD alive is their cheaper pricing for a slightly inferior CPU. If they had frequency and performance parity with INtel, AMD chips probably wouldn't be as cheap. Both companies might well meet in the middle. I look forward to Ryzen+ so i can use my existing mobo and get 10% better clocks.
<=50% of the investment for >=90% of the performance seems like a great deal to me. I honestly don't see the problem.
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#9
bug
Frick said:
<=50% of the investment for >=90% of the performance seems like a great deal to me. I honestly don't see the problem.
The thing is, it's not always like that. If you're already on intel, you may have the option to keep your motherboard, thus the cost is very different. For Ryzen, you'll definitely need a new motherboard.
And it's not always >=90% of the performance either. Ryzen has the habit of losing in benchmarks in many apps you normally use at home, because they're not heavily multithreaded. Choosing the right CPU these days is a bitch. Still, it's better to have options other than "intel if you want performance, amd if you're on a budget".
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#10
Imsochobo
bug said:
The thing is, it's not always like that. If you're already on intel, you may have the option to keep your motherboard, thus the cost is very different. For Ryzen, you'll definitely need a new motherboard.
And it's not always >=90% of the performance either. Ryzen has the habit of losing in benchmarks in many apps you normally use at home, because they're not heavily multithreaded. Choosing the right CPU these days is a bitch. Still, it's better to have options other than "intel if you want performance, amd if you're on a budget".
Newer Intel cpu's will be on new socket.

AMD is now Performance and Budget and Value choice not HEDT. they've already improved massively.!
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#11
the54thvoid
Frick said:
<=50% of the investment for >=90% of the performance seems like a great deal to me. I honestly don't see the problem.
Hence why I bought a Ryzen 8 core.

But if you want the best....

And look at Fury X. It was good enough to match stock 980ti's at the higher resolutions and it was pitched at the same price. AMD have no option but to be cheaper because the CPU isn't as good. Yet.
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#12
64K
My opinion is that once AMD gets all of their Ryzen CPUs and Vega GPUs into the supply channels there will be a pretty big rise in AMD stock. Possibly up to around $19 a share after this summer but as always buying individual stocks is a gamble for most people.
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#13
Aretak
the54thvoid said:
I could shortly buy a base clocked Skylake-E at 4Ghz base clock (if rumours are true).
You could. For twice the price. Underselling AMD's price advantage is silly. Intel's chips are obscenely overpriced for the small potential performance uplift they offer (so long as you're willing to deal with the truly insane heat and power draw when they're pushed significantly beyond 4GHz).
bug said:
If you're already on intel, you may have the option to keep your motherboard, thus the cost is very different. For Ryzen, you'll definitely need a new motherboard.
If you want an upcoming Intel HEDT chip, you will definetly need a new motherboard. LGA 2011-v3 is a dead socket.
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#14
Gasaraki
Please this is so bullshit. I bought AMD stocks before Ryzen came out, look where it has gotten me. Never trusting AMD again.
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#15
Frick
Fishfaced Nincompoop
bug said:
The thing is, it's not always like that. If you're already on intel, you may have the option to keep your motherboard, thus the cost is very different. For Ryzen, you'll definitely need a new motherboard.
And it's not always >=90% of the performance either. Ryzen has the habit of losing in benchmarks in many apps you normally use at home, because they're not heavily multithreaded. Choosing the right CPU these days is a bitch. Still, it's better to have options other than "intel if you want performance, amd if you're on a budget".
You've never been able to keep Intel motherboards for very long. See LGA1150. And besides, that argument only makes sense if you already have a new system, if you do a total upgrade you'd have to replace everything in any case.
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#16
phanbuey
the54thvoid said:
Hence why I bought a Ryzen 8 core.

But if you want the best....

And look at Fury X. It was good enough to match stock 980ti's at the higher resolutions and it was pitched at the same price. AMD have no option but to be cheaper because the CPU isn't as good. Yet.
Totally agree...

Also these guys have it backwards, now is the time for intel to strike back since they have had time to get their bearings after the Ryzen release. Buying AMD and Selling Intel on the eve of Core i9 releases is about the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

I've made some serious money off AMD, but there is no way now is the time to buy unless you're buying put options.
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#17
bug
Frick said:
You've never been able to keep Intel motherboards for very long. See LGA1150. And besides, that argument only makes sense if you already have a new system, if you do a total upgrade you'd have to replace everything in any case.
I didn't say you were. But if you're running an i3 on socket 1151, there are many options to upgrade while keeping your motherboard. Not everyone is in this situation, all I'm saying is Ryzen is not a no-brainer for everyone.
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#18
Aquinus
Resident Wat-man
Gasaraki said:
Please this is so bullshit. I bought AMD stocks before Ryzen came out, look where it has gotten me. Never trusting AMD again.
Yeah, you needed to invest 1-2 years ago when their stock was as low as it was going to get without getting ejected from the NASDAQ. Buying right now is quite the risk IMHO.
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#19
64K
Aquinus said:
Yeah, you needed to invest 1-2 years ago when their stock was as low as it was going to get without getting ejected from the NASDAQ. Buying right now is quite the risk IMHO.
Indeed that was a golden opportunity for some. Most investors were very anxious to dump their AMD shares and it went as low as $1.60 a share at one point. Buying in at around $2 a share would have netted you around a 550% profit if selling today. As Warren Buffet once said, "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" and "Most investors are on the wrong side of Wall Street so don't do what they are doing" and "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Being a Contrarian seems to have worked out pretty well for him.
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#20
Dimi
You'd have to be in idiot to sell your Intel stock right now. Right BEFORE computex, really? Who will be making money from these so called analyst opinions?
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#21
R-T-B
Dimi said:
You'd have to be in idiot to sell your Intel stock right now. Right BEFORE computex, really? Who will be making money from these so called analyst opinions?
The hype before an event is exactly when you want to sell something like stock, actually.
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#22
bug
Gasaraki said:
Please this is so bullshit. I bought AMD stocks before Ryzen came out, look where it has gotten me. Never trusting AMD again.
Maybe they're hinting at shorting? Buy before Epyc comes out, wait for the hype to inflate the prices then sell?
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#23
Dimi
R-T-B said:
The hype before an event is exactly when you want to sell something like stock, actually.
Study some stock, look at AMD's stock for instance, it dropped hard AFTER release when the real benchmarks came out. HYPE makes stocks go up.
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#24
R-T-B
Dimi said:
Study some stock, look at AMD's stock for instance, it dropped hard AFTER release when the real benchmarks came out. HYPE makes stocks go up.
Hence me saying the words "hype" in my post.

That said, Computex is basically a hype-show, so you may be right.
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#25
FR@NK
While AMD is doing great compared to the last afew years; I still dont see them being profitable in the long term. Ryzen isnt fast enough to keep them competitive for 3-5 years until they release their next architecture.
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