Tuesday, September 4th 2018

Analyst Firm Susquehanna: "Intel Lost its Manufacturing Leadership"

Intel was once the shining star in the semiconductor manufacturing industry, with a perfectly integrated, vertical product design and manufacturing scheme. Intel was one of the few companies in the world to be able to both develop its architectures and gear their manufacturing facilities to their design characteristics, ensuring a perfect marriage of design and manufacturing. However, not all is rosy on that field, as we've seen; AMD itself also was a fully integrated company, but decided to spin-off its manufacturing arm so as to survive - thus creating GLOBALFOUNDRIES.But Intel was seen as many as the leader in semiconductor manufacturing, always at the cutting edge of - well - Moore's Law, named after Intel's founding father Gordon Moore. Now, Mehdi Hosseini, an analyst with Susquehanna, has gone on to say that the blue giant has effectively lost its semiconductor leadership. And it has, in a way, even if its 10 nm (which is in development hell, so to speak) is technically more advanced than some 7 nm implementations waiting to be delivered to market by its competitors. However, there's one area where Intel will stop being able to claim leadership: manufacturing techniques involving EUV (Extreme UltraViolet).
It's being reported that intel has decided to postpone its EUV efforts to other processes, not taking it up on its 7 nm process development. This saves Intel money in adding yet another technique and technology to an already hard to manufacture node, but leaves the door ajar for the likes of TSMC and Samsung (of which the latter is expected to have the more complex EUV implementation, in more layers, at least in the beginning). TSMC is looking to develop both 7 nm and 7 nm+ manufacturing processes, where only the latter will feature EUV integration - a way to divide costs and reduce reliance on a still exotic technology. But while Samsung and TSMC are both looking towards some level of EUV integration by 2019, intel is looking towards a farther 2021.
According to Susquehanna's Mehdi Hosseini, TSMC is the company to look out for as the semiconductor manufacturer leader, as it "appears to be winning most of the leading-edge design wins due to better 7nm process technology performance, lower power consumption and better area density." Indeed "the times, they are a changin'." Source: EETimes
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61 Comments on Analyst Firm Susquehanna: "Intel Lost its Manufacturing Leadership"

#1
lynx29
and yet, Intel is still the best gaming chip there is, and will be dominating AMD in min-FPS across the board even vs the 3rd gen ryzen next year (most likely) but eh i suppose it doesn't matter anymore.
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#2
B-Real
lynx29, post: 3897840, member: 153071"
and yet, Intel is still the best gaming chip there is, and will be dominating AMD in min-FPS across the board even vs the 3rd gen ryzen next year (most likely) but eh i suppose it doesn't matter anymore.
Gamer segment is a tiny bit of the CPU as whole.
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#3
Gungar
The "analyst" says that based on the use of EUV?!?
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#4
R-T-B
lynx29, post: 3897840, member: 153071"
and yet, Intel is still the best gaming chip there is, and will be dominating AMD in min-FPS across the board even vs the 3rd gen ryzen next year (most likely) but eh i suppose it doesn't matter anymore.
That's not really what this article is about. It's much more broad.
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#5
Vya Domus
lynx29, post: 3897840, member: 153071"
but eh i suppose it doesn't matter anymore.
Yeah, it doesn't and thank God for that.

R-T-B, post: 3897845, member: 41983"
That's not really what this article is about. It's much more broad.
Nah man it's all about that 5% better gaming performance. That's what is on the whiteboards in boardrooms at Intel :roll:
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#6
lynx29
Vya Domus, post: 3897847, member: 169281"
Yeah, it doesn't and thank God for that.
With freesync/gsync and high refresh it doesn't matter anymore at all, I am actually skipping this upgrade cycle because GSYNC does so well for me even on newer games lol

I am guessing vega 3 vs rtx 3080 ti is when i will upgrade next. i stopped caring about 4 months ago
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#7
Vya Domus
lynx29, post: 3897850, member: 153071"
I am guessing vega 3 vs rtx 3080 ti is when i will upgrade next. i stopped caring about 4 months ago
Vega 3, what's that ? Was there a Vega 2 already, I don't follow ?
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#8
hardcore_gamer
This "analyst" doesn't have any clue on how CMOS process works. Try comparing the half pitch and gate insulator thickness of Intel's 14nm and TSMC's "7nm" nodes.
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#9
theoneandonlymrk
Personally I think people are to quick to knock intels foundry , regardless of issues with 7nm(effectively tsmcs 5 or something) they are ahead of the game in other areas, emib for example has no equal and few equivalents same with fiveR ,like GF it's not just about a number.

Now intel on the whole, they are in trouble.
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#10
R0H1T
hardcore_gamer, post: 3897857, member: 92204"
This "analyst" doesn't have any clue on how CMOS process works. Try comparing the half pitch and gate insulator thickness of Intel's 14nm and TSMC's "7nm" nodes.
The "analyst" also knows that Intel's 10nm was supposed to be launched back in 2016 (2017?) & yet it won't be here till 2019 or even later for consumers. Just because their projections can be bad, doesn't mean their data is BS :rolleyes:
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#11
DeathtoGnomes
So who will be first to call the analyst an AMD fanboi and this article a PR stunt paid for by AMD?

TBH, some of us has seen this coming, that Intel has lost an edge on the ice.
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#12
notb
As someone already mentioned: the analyst doesn't really know much about semiconductor manufacturing. But that's a smaller problem.

The bigger problem is what's happening with AMD stock right now. AMD hasn't updated plans, they haven't surprised us with a new product or anything. The only unexpected piece of news about AMD lately is that they lost one 7nm partner.
Yet, the stock keeps rising based on recommendations. It's +11% today because another US-based financial company decided to write a text about 7nm. :-o
Just look at the evolution of price targets:
https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amd/ratings

I wonder who's buying. It seems a lot of AMD followers started investing... ;-)
Just think what would happen if TSMC also announced delay in 7nm introduction...
B-Real, post: 3897842, member: 170068"
Gamer segment is a tiny bit of the CPU as whole.
If only forum members spend so much time studying computer science or business as they spend studying gaming benchmarks...
IMO the non-gaming news are only generating chaos here. I wonder how many gamers on TPU bought a Ryzen because Zen is so great for workstations... :-P
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#13
Steevo
hardcore_gamer, post: 3897857, member: 92204"
This "analyst" doesn't have any clue on how CMOS process works. Try comparing the half pitch and gate insulator thickness of Intel's 14nm and TSMC's "7nm" nodes.
This analysis was spot on, the etch cleanliness of Intel 10nm is close to what 7nm from TSMC is, which is where silicon is going to stop for now, except companies that are finding ways around the wavelength of EUV not being small enough to focus the pattern and the lack of photo etch energy and reactive product with the control prior processes have had.

We are so close to quantum issues with this process this only ways forward involves massive R&D and the payback costs are too low to facilitate the transition forward to 5nm profitably.
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#14
deu
LOOK AT ME!
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#15
efikkan
Gungar, post: 3897844, member: 163163"
The "analyst" says that based on the use of EUV?!?
Strange, TSMC's CLN7FF relies on DUV with triple/quad patterning like Intel. Earlier this year they said they were on track to achieve EUV on CLN7FF+ in 2H 2019, so they don't even have the technology yet.
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#16
Harakhti
Steevo, post: 3897878, member: 19251"
We are so close to quantum issues with this process this only ways forward involves massive R&D and the payback costs are too low to facilitate the transition forward to 5nm profitably.
There's a very awkward but possible card in the form of hitting the "rewind" button and just making increased die size instead of shrinks sans early 1990s. Guaranteed, it'd be awkward, but hey, HEDT is coming to consumer markets with fist-sized CPUs anyway and people don't seem to mind.
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#17
theoneandonlymrk
DeathtoGnomes, post: 3897863, member: 151150"
So who will be first to call the analyst an AMD fanboi and this article a PR stunt paid for by AMD?

TBH, some of us has seen this coming, that Intel has lost an edge on the ice.
I guess you got that answer.

@notb /Susan,v funny stuff love it.

No unicorn though sad face.
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#18
CMOT_Bourgeoisie
R0H1T, post: 3897861, member: 131092"
The "analyst" also knows that Intel's 10nm was supposed to be launched back in 2016 (2017?) & yet it won't be here till 2019 or even later for consumers. Just because their projections can be bad, doesn't mean their data is BS :rolleyes:
Truth. This -> TSMC, Not Intel, Has The Lead In Semiconductor Processes
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#19
nemesis.ie
@deu This isn't WCCFTech. ;)

Although it is feeling a lot more like it by the day ...
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#20
notb
efikkan, post: 3897884, member: 150226"
Strange, TSMC's CLN7FF relies on DUV with triple/quad patterning like Intel. Earlier this year they said they were on track to achieve EUV on CLN7FF+ in 2H 2019, so they don't even have the technology yet.
As I said earlier. Just find a comfortable seat. This will be fun, I promise. :-)

"TSMC intends to introduce a more advanced 7nm fabrication process that will use EUV for critical layers, taking a page from GlobalFoundries’ book (which is set tp start 7 nm with DUV and then introduces second-gen 7 nm with EUV). "
https://www.anandtech.com/show/11337/samsung-and-tsmc-roadmaps-12-nm-8-nm-and-6-nm-added/2

This might not be the last page from GF's book that they're going to take. :-)
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#21
efikkan
CMOT_Bourgeoisie, post: 3897903, member: 181499"
Truth. This -> TSMC, Not Intel, Has The Lead In Semiconductor Processes
Yet another misguided by the "7nm" vs. "10nm" name. Intel's 10 nm have a comparable theoretical density to TSMC's 7nm.
Intel have not yet lost the manufacturing leadership, we still don't know the yields, volume and performance of TSMC's 7nm. We still don't know who will take leadership in terms of the highest performing node, and who will ship the highest volume.
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#22
deu
nemesis.ie, post: 3897909, member: 22637"
@deu This isn't WCCFTech. ;)

Although it is feeling a lot more like it by the day ...
It didnt post my picture :/ (updated)
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#23
GreiverBlade
lynx29, post: 3897840, member: 153071"
and yet, Intel is still the best gaming chip there is, and will be dominating AMD in min-FPS across the board even vs the 3rd gen ryzen next year (most likely) but eh i suppose it doesn't matter anymore.
Define "dominating" ... because right now price to price i rather take a R7 2700 than a I5-6/7/8/9XXK well ... from 6 to 9 ... the price is the same ... a 6600K is still 249chf/$, even worse in second hand ... as soon as it's labeled Intel buyer go crazy over it for no reason at all which can also be an advantage ... selling my 6600K for an insane price and just putting a few $ missing for a R7 2700 that is nearing 269chf/$ atm (ofc i could also take a R5 2600 since at 1440p it's in the same range )

oh ... min fps, what kind? 1-5% suuure it's dominating 10% ? nope still not dominating... 50% ? ah there we talk but ... well ... that case is not real :p

2nd gen Ryzen compete easily ... so ... "even the 3rd gen will not scratch the base of the sole of Intel" is a fantasy, "the 2nd gen is already touching his nose" not "head and shoulders" above ... but damn near...
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#24
Dante Uchiha
efikkan, post: 3897933, member: 150226"
Yet another misguided by the "7nm" vs. "10nm" name. Intel's 10 nm have a comparable theoretical density to TSMC's 7nm.
Intel have not yet lost the manufacturing leadership, we still don't know the yields, volume and performance of TSMC's 7nm. We still don't know who will take leadership in terms of the highest performing node, and who will ship the highest volume.


7nm seems superior. I wonder what will happen when both AMD (7nm) and Intel(10nm) have CPUs with clocks near the 5Ghz barrier. Are we going to start the Battle of IPC improvement or will the CPUs market stagnate? Would a "simple lithography change" bring IPC gains?
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#25
efikkan
Dante Uchiha, post: 3897949, member: 161713"
7nm seems superior. I wonder what will happen when both AMD (7nm) and Intel(10nm) have CPUs with clocks near the 5Ghz barrier. Are we going to start the Battle of IPC improvement or will the CPUs market stagnate? Would a "simple lithography change" bring IPC gains?
We'll let the actual products be the judge of that. We wouldn't reach the full potential of the nodes in the first iteration anyway, many of the advantages depend on EUV.

And no, the node or "lithography change" doesn't impact IPC.
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