y2faultyIt could also be that other people are gonna start manufacturing memory (or other components) , if there is such a demand for it

Who is "other people"? It is not like RAM can be made in the kitchen by your grandma, only 3 major manufacturers exist (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) with a few more regional players that *might* become a global seller (pretty much YMTC). This stuff requires advanced lithography machines with fully automated foundries to make.

Prices have already begun to creep up in Brazil. I've just placed an emergency order for a 2x8 5600 C36 Kingston Fury kit, one of the last few I found at the old prices, it's barebones as it gets, but if I miss this window, I probably won't have any DDR5 in case my kit fails or for another build project.

TechBuyingHavocWho is "other people"? It is not like RAM can be made in the kitchen by your grandma, only 3 major manufacturers exist (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) with a few more regional players that *might* become a global seller (pretty much YMTC). This stuff requires advanced lithography machines with fully automated foundries to make.

I just discovered that Nanya(!) makes DDR5/LPDDR5/5X chips, and also DIMM/SODIMM/LPCAMM2 modules. I thought they were far behind, filling the gaps that the big three have abandoned. Available (but barely) in retail.

TechBuyingHavocWho is "other people"? It is not like RAM can be made in the kitchen by your grandma, only 3 major manufacturers exist (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) with a few more regional players that *might* become a global seller (pretty much YMTC). This stuff requires advanced lithography machines with fully automated foundries to make.

these three aren't the only electronics manufacturers in the whole world

if there is such a huge demand, others might see it convenient to jump in and try to get in the market (ram or anything else IA would require, even gpus eventually)

in fact it's what usually happens when a market expands

wNotyarDIs it too soon to say a new storm is coming to the automotive manufacturing sector, especially with how "smart" the products have become?

Yeah that is a concern also, I don't know if automotive products use the same latest nodes as PC or server DRAM, but hopefully we don't have another vehicle shortage.

R-T-BMy gskills ddr5 kits are SK Hynix dies. It varies.

Yeah. Mine are Samsung

Hecate91Yeah that is a concern also, I don't know if automotive products use the same latest nodes as PC or server DRAM, but hopefully we don't have another vehicle shortage.

Are you aware that a two-liter car engine can power half a rack of Blackwell?

We are moving quickly toward a significant shortage of practically half of all computer parts. Perhaps everything is being well managed by the industry, but in the end, it doesn't matter.
If anyone is wondering, it's better not to, just take what you can buy now.
Micron isn't doing anything wrong; they're a company and they're just following the big money. I don't see anything wrong with that.

That's my two cents.

AVATARATWe are moving quickly toward a significant shortage of practically half of all computer parts. Perhaps everything is being well managed by the industry, but in the end, it doesn't matter.
If anyone is wondering, it's better not to, just take what you can buy now.
Micron isn't doing anything wrong; they're a company and they're just following the big money. I don't see anything wrong with that.

That's my two cents.

I agree it ain't wrong. I still don't like the decision.

TheinsanegamerNThe biggest folly of the consumer is believing they have no power.

In this case we literally don't. Case in point: the article you are commenting on. Enterprise money is bigger and even if AI goes enterprise is here to stay. Show them you are a unreliable and/or emotional customer and only you stand to lose.

You can lobby for change in government of course (and probably should) but that's a whole different animal than consumer buying power being waived around.

maxli86Unclear so customer have to check with them.

It's right in the OP:

Warranty coverage and support will remain in place.

The moment I find a job, and start making money to essentially upgrade a 8 year old system and this happens.... Ai fucking the consumer once more!!

FlameSparrowThe moment I find a job, and start making money to essentially upgrade a 8 year old system and this happens.... Ai fucking the consumer once more!!

Ai bubble needs to pop

I just noticed... Just by rearranging the words in the main page title, you get "killing Micron is Crucial". :wtf:

I'll see myself out. :oops:

FlameSparrowThe moment I find a job, and start making money to essentially upgrade a 8 year old system and this happens.... Ai fucking the consumer once more!!

Welcome to TPU! The silver lining is that not all is lost, yet, anyways. Achieving a decent build is still possible, with smart purchasing decisions and making use of all available roads, like AliExpress and purchasing used gear in good condition.

Forum B/S/T section should help those who can make use of it as well, and the community will support itself for a while longer.

However, the situation is indeed precarious and will deteriorate over time. I suggest you waste no time in securing a RAM kit and an SSD for your build as the prices will be increasing over the next few weeks.

Bill_BrightI see this as the first domino being knocked over. The question becomes, will it knock over any more?

While your statement is an excellent example of the 'slippery slope' logical fallacy, the exact opposite is true. The exit of one consumer memory manufacturer makes the environment more hospitable for the remaining competitors, not less.

TheinsanegamerNToken based prediction isnt new. A fancy new coat of paint and buzzwords made all the investors horny for money again.

AI-based medical diagnostics that exceeds human performance is new. AI-empowered materials science research is new. Realtime generation of ultra-realistic video clips from textual scene descriptions is new.

Those whose experience with AI is limited to playing with a few LLM chatbots should do at least a minimum of research. That isn't isn't a tenth of a tenth of a tenth of the total AI market.

remixedcatAi bubble needs to pop

That reminds me of all the people I talked to in the early '90s who thought the Internet was a passing pad. There were many of them ... they just didn't post their opinions on web forums though, primarily because they couldn't find any.

EndymioThe exit of one consumer memory manufacturer makes the environment more hospitable for the remaining competitors, not less.

One of the few memory manufacturers leaving the market only means the remaining companies can price gouge consumers more.

EndymioAI-based medical diagnostics that exceeds human performance is new. AI-empowered materials science research is new. Realtime generation of ultra-realistic video clips from textual scene descriptions is new.

Those whose experience with AI is limited to playing with a few LLM chatbots should do at least a minimum of research. That isn't isn't a tenth of a tenth of a tenth of the total AI market.

Before it was AI, it was just LLMs, and real-time generated AI slop videos aren't worth the amount of electricity it takes to generate them.

EndymioThat reminds me of all the people I talked to in the early '90s who thought the Internet was a passing pad. There were many of them ... they just didn't post their opinions on web forums though, primarily because they couldn't find any.

The rate at these companies pushing AI isn't sustainable, not while companies are hoarding all the memory, causing pollution with data centers, and electrical grids not being enough so entire nuclear power stations are being built to power chat bots and glorified search engines.
The tech bros said blockchain would change the entire economy, or how NFT's would be the future. Except in reality no one cares because people eventually seen crypto and nfts as a massive scam. AI for consumers has very little to no real usefulness and has no real world value.

Hecate91One of the few memory manufacturers only means the remaining companies can price gouge consumers more.

Only for those who believe "price gouging" equates to "charging me more than I want to pay". Why not learn the law of supply and demand?

Hecate91Before it was AI, it was just LLMs...

Again: LLMs are an infinitesimal fraction of the total AI/ML field. They're no longer even a majority of generative AI.

Hecate91The rate at these companies pushing AI isn't sustainable, not while companies are hoarding all the memory....

They're using the memory, not hoarding it. And if you understand economics, you understand that, over the medium and long term, the increased demand they're generating is vastly accelerating the memory industry's expansion and adoption of new process nodes. Do you honestly think some gamers buying ram upgrades generate enough revenue to finance early adoption of semi process nodes costing tens of billions of dollars?

Hecate91...Except in reality no one cares because people eventually seen crypto and nfts as a massive scam....

Who's talking about crypto and NFTs? Stay on topic. You might as well claim AI is a scam because the 1600s Dutch Tulip Bubble collapsed.

This is sad 😐 I' ve had lots of fun with Crucial ram that usually had lots of headrom for oc/tweaking. They will be missed!

EndymioOnly for those who believe "price gouging" equates to "charging me more than I want to pay". Why not learn the law of supply and demand?

RAM manufacturers and retailers had RAM in stock the whole time before AI companies decided to gobble it all up, it's price gouging when the same item is artificially price hiked without a real lack of supply.

EndymioAgain: LLMs are an infinitesimal fraction of the total AI/ML field. They're no longer even a majority of generative AI.

A majority of generative AI is also pointless slop, entire datacenters to generate fake videos for brainrotted tiktok users.

EndymioThey're using the memory, not hoarding it. And if you understand economics, you understand that, over the medium and long term, the increased demand they're generating is vastly accelerating the memory industry's expansion and adoption of new process nodes. Do you honestly think some gamers buying ram upgrades generate enough revenue to finance early adoption of semi process nodes costing tens of billions of dollars?

I guess you didn't hear the news about openAI taking 40% of the entire memory supply as wafers to store in warehouses. The economics are obvious, it's a massive bubble that isn't sustainable and needs to be regulated.
Also it takes years for memory companies to expand with new factories, but apparently gamers buying RAM wasn't good enough even with it being 3X more expensive than it was a few months ago.
The AI companies are hoarding everything to the point that some companies aren't able to source memory, AI is supposed to make everything better, easier and cheaper, but I have yet to see any of that, and the funny thing is these companies want us to have AI in everything but consumers won't be able to afford or buy anything to use AI.

EndymioWho's talking about crypto and NFTs? Stay on topic. You might as well claim AI is a scam because the 1600s Dutch Tulip Bubble collapsed.

Do you not see the connection with past bubbles popping? Crypto didn't go away however the bubble was unsustainable, only a few winners were left after the crypto bubble burst and it caused a massive amount of waste in hardware.

EndymioAI-based medical diagnostics that exceeds human performance is new. AI-empowered materials science research is new.

Not even that is new. The fields of science and technology where ML is incumbent, not new, include medical image analysis, insurance fraud detection, route planning for anything that travels, analysis of shopping habits, and probably much more. (I prefer to say ML because ML/DL is programmed in Python while AI is programmed in PowerPoint.)

Hecate91RAM manufacturers and retailers had RAM in stock the whole time before AI companies decided to gobble it all up

And RAM manufacturers and retailers still have RAM in stock today. That's the great thing about the law of supply and demand in a free market: prices rise to equalize supply with demand. And the higher revenues the industry is now generating has resulted in every single major RAM manufacturer announcing and/or accelerating capacity expansion and new node introduction.

Hecate91...it's price gouging when the same item is artificially price hiked without a real lack of supply.

You just spent several posts bemoaning the tight supply; now you're attempting to convince us there's plenty to go around? There's nothing "artificial" about the high demand for memory right now.

Hecate91A majority of generative AI is also pointless slop

Correction: "pointless slop" is what a majority of videogamers with zero real connection to the ML industry see when they play with free online generative AI tools.

Hecate91I guess you didn't hear the news about openAI taking 40% of the entire memory supply as wafers to store in warehouses.

Except that isn't happening, of course. OpenAI is buying undiced wafers not "to store in warehouses" but to convert into memory chips.

Hecate91The economics are obvious, it's a massive bubble that isn't sustainable and needs to be regulated.

You want to see how well regulation works, move to Cuba, North Korea, or a former USSR Republic. I understand you're upset because a transformational industry is temporarily interfering with your hobby, but in a year's time, the additional memory capacity will flood the market, prices will drop like a stone, and everyone -- including you videogamers -- will reap the benefits.

Hecate91.... but apparently gamers buying RAM wasn't good enough.

Gamers buying RAM don't pay the bills for nodes like A14. They don't even pay the water bill for those fabs, much less the base Capex costs.

EndymioThat reminds me of all the people I talked to in the early '90s who thought the Internet was a passing pad. There were many of them ... they just didn't post their opinions on web forums though, primarily because they couldn't find any.

When I personally say "the AI bubble will pop", what I really mean is a similar situation: AI will be recognised for what it is (LLM), and be relegated to the tasks it is good at - sifting through large amounts of data. It can be good in research that involves analysing thousands of data points. I've read that it is great at looking at wide spectrum telescope photos and segregating stars by their types, for example. What it is not good at is creating genuine content, especially when the learning pool itself contains much AI-generated content. People will eventually realise that, and treat AI as the tool that it is, and not "the next best thing".

TL,DR: Surely, AI will never go away, but when the techbros are finished pooping their pants in excitement, it'll get its appropriate place in society, and we'll have relative normalcy again.

EndymioAnd RAM manufacturers and retailers still have RAM in stock today. That's the great thing about the law of supply and demand in a free market: prices rise to equalize supply with demand. And the higher revenues the industry is now generating has resulted in every single major RAM manufacturer announcing and/or accelerating capacity expansion and new node introduction.

RAM manufacturers and retailers only have items in stock because they're all price gouging, and the market is anything but free when the consumer is powerless against these companies telling buyers they're not worthy of even selling to.
Extra capacity and new nodes aren't going to be for consumer or OEM supply, that much should be obvious with what's happening.

EndymioYou just spent several posts bemoaning the tight supply; now you're attempting to convince us there's plenty to go around? There's nothing "artificial" about the high demand for memory right now.

It is artificial when a handful of companies are allowed to grab the entire RAM supply and have filled order capacity for an entire year.

EndymioCorrection: "pointless slop" is what a majority of videogamers with zero real connection to the ML industry see when they play with free online generative AI tools.

ML has its use, as mentioned for large amounts of data,research, shipping logistics, or assisting in design.
But it sucks at creating any good content itself, AI models for generating art is just a result of immense amounts of art theft and plagiarism.

EndymioExcept that isn't happening, of course. OpenAI is buying undiced wafers not "to store in warehouses" but to convert into memory chips.

Source?
OpenAI is buying whole wafers and isn't going use all of those chips right away. OpenAI itself as a company is a scam, it hasn't generated any profit at all, somehow they keep getting govt grants and corporate funding to generate nothing.

EndymioYou want to see how well regulation works, move to Cuba, North Korea, or a former USSR Republic. I understand you're upset because a transformational industry is temporarily interfering with your hobby, but in a year's time, the additional memory capacity will flood the market, prices will drop like a stone, and everyone -- including you videogamers -- will reap the benefits.

Regulation exists to keep companies in check, we're at a point where companies have more money and power than entire countries do, and that's as far as I'll elaborate because anything more would be getting political.
There isn't anything "transformative" about AI for consumers except putting people out of work, increases in energy bill cost, and causing goods to increase in price, I expect companies might push things like computers as a subscription service when people can't afford a new PC.
Thinking RAM prices will return to what they were before the AI tech bro RAM hoard is some very wishful thinking, the crypto bubble ruined GPU pricing and GPU prices never retuned to before crypto level pricing, consumers were willing or were forced to pay more, and of course companies would like to charge as much as the consumer is willing to pay, RAM makers have no reason to drop prices because all they have to do is cut supply. And the fact of RAM manufacturers have been caught price fixing before.

EndymioGamers buying RAM don't pay the bills for nodes like A14. They don't even pay the water bill for those fabs, much less the base Capex costs.

Stop with the "gamers bad" nonsense.
It isn't just gamers, OEM's won't be able to buy memory either if the AI caused "shortage" goes on for another year or more.

AusWolfWhen I personally say "the AI bubble will pop", what I really mean is a similar situation: AI will be recognised for what it is (LLM), and be relegated to the tasks it is good at - sifting through large amounts of data. It can be good in research that involves analysing thousands of data points. I've read that it is great at looking at wide spectrum telescope photos and segregating stars by their types, for example. What it is not good at is creating genuine content, especially when the learning pool itself contains much AI-generated content. People will eventually realise that, and treat AI as the tool that it is, and not "the next best thing".

TL,DR: Surely, AI will never go away, but when the techbros are finished pooping their pants in excitement, it'll get its appropriate place in society, and we'll have relative normalcy again.

Shush AusWolf, you can't just go make a reasonable and level-headed position and take away the lazy strawman argument (AI skepticism has to mean you believe all AI is useless) that AI boosters love to heap on people opposing their position as a cheap tactic to de-legitimize their argument.