Thursday, December 21st 2017

4Q DRAM Sales Put Exclamation Point On An Amazing Year of Growth

Throughout 2017, DRAM manufacturers faced pressure to boost output of their devices-particularly high-performance DRAM used in data center servers, and low-power high-density DRAM used in smartphones and other mobile products. Strong, ongoing demand put significant upward pressure on DRAM average selling prices. This trend continued into 4Q17 and is expected to drive quarterly DRAM sales to an all time high mark of $21.1 billion (Figure 1), capping an incredible year of growth in which DRAM sales set a new all time high sales mark each quarter. The forecast $21.1 billion sales level in 4Q17 would be an increase of 65% compared to the $12.8 billion DRAM market of 4Q16.
Annual DRAM market growth of 74% is forecast for 2017, which would be the highest growth rate since the 78% increase in 1994-23 years ago-and 61 points more than the 13% average DRAM market growth rate from 1993-2017 (Figure 2). The expected 74% DRAM market growth in 2017 will mark the fourth time since 1993 that the DRAM market has increased by more than 50%. This near-historic high market spike in 2017 was brought on by several factors, including constrained supply attributed to a lack of major fab expansion plans, yield difficulties with leading-edge (≤20nm) processes, demand for high performance (graphics) DRAM from gaming systems and data center-based server applications, and increased average content for mobile DRAM used in smartphones.
There is an increasing need for high-speed but inexpensive data storage in smartphone handsets for multi-tasking, which is boosting the average DRAM content in a smartphone. The Apple iPhone 8 features 2GB of DRAM and the iPhone X has 3GB of DRAM. The Samsung Galaxy S8 is sold with 4GB of DRAM (6GB in China). Huawei's P10 Plus, and HTC's U11 come with 6GB of DRAM. The One Plus 5 model and the first smartphone from Razer, a Singapore-based company that is primarily known for its video game equipment, have 8GB of DRAM.

With virtual and augmented reality and artificial intelligence becoming prominent features on new smartphones and apps, DRAM content in high-end smartphones shows no signs of slowing. Meanwhile, DRAM growth for smartphones is also stemming from less developed countries, where much of the population is moving from feature phones to their first smartphone-literally transitioning from zero to 1GB of mobile DRAM.

Based on historical trends, the DRAM industry will likely experience a decline (possibly a big market decline) in its growth rate in the not-too-distant future as prices begin to tumble with significant capacity additions and an increase in DRAM output expected over the next year or two. Announcements by Samsung and SK Hynix in the second half of 2017 confirmed that new DRAM capacity is set to come online in 2018, which likely will ease the upward trend of DRAM ASPs next year. Samsung has stated its semiconductor capital expenditure budget for 2017 will be an enormous $26.0 billion, and SK Hynix has announced plans to build a new manufacturing line at its massive facility in Wuxi, China. Micron has gone on record as saying it doubts that it will ever need to build another new DRAM fab, but it is hard to imagine that Micron will sit still as its two fiercest rivals capture additional marketshare. (For the record, Micron and Intel are developing Crosspoint memory as a potential replacement for DRAM). Source: IC Insights
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19 Comments on 4Q DRAM Sales Put Exclamation Point On An Amazing Year of Growth

#1
dj-electric
And the DRAM cartel keeps laughing at our faces, knowing we can't do jack when they artificially increase their prices to get these kind of numbers.

Disgusting.
Posted on Reply
#3
lynx29
I wish AMD would start making their own RAM again. They did for awhile. If Vega 2 can do halfway decent... man I would love to build an all AMD rig just to spite all these greedy companies, even if it meant a little less performance but better bang for my buck.

Come on AMD. Come back in a big way this year. I'm still being patient.
Posted on Reply
#4
Vya Domus
lynx29 said:
Come back in a big way this year.
They did that in the past and people still haven't bought their products. For AMD , going all out has failed to become a viable tactic.
Posted on Reply
#5
FreedomEclipse
~Technological Technocrat~
Vya Domus said:
They did that in the past and people still haven't bought their products. For AMD , going all out has failed to become a viable tactic.
Depends what you mean by 'going all out', I know for certain their PR and marketing department were 'going all out' when it came to new releases like Bulldozer/piledriver. Pitty for them that campaign only told half the story and benchmarks were all cherry picked to show the new CPUs off in a positive light rather than the half baked ones that they were.
Posted on Reply
#6
Vya Domus
I am referring more to their GPUs , they had cards in the past that were genuine faster and cheaper but they still didn't succeed.
Posted on Reply
#7
FreedomEclipse
~Technological Technocrat~
Vya Domus said:
I am referring more to their GPUs , they had cards in the past that were genuine faster and cheaper but they still didn't succeed.
Which ones?
Posted on Reply
#9
FreedomEclipse
~Technological Technocrat~
Vya Domus said:
290 and 290X most notably.
AMD might of went all out and while they performed pretty well they just ran too hot and chugged too much power. If that was AMD's 'Best Efforts' Id be a little disappointed too...

Energy Efficiency is the new buzz word these days
Posted on Reply
#10
MopeyMartian
Dj-ElectriC said:
And the DRAM cartel keeps laughing at our faces, knowing we can't do jack when they artificially increase their prices to get these kind of numbers.

Disgusting.
Money talks louder than words. If everyone refused to pay their fixed prices they'd go back to normal real quick.
Posted on Reply
#11
Vya Domus
FreedomEclipse said:
AMD might of went all out and while they performed pretty well they just ran too hot and chugged too much power. If that was AMD's 'Best Efforts' Id be a little disappointed too...
Regardless , my point still stands. That was the last time they made the fastest card they possibly could with gaming in mind and they also undercut the completion by a significant margin. One can't realistically ask for more, yet it still wasn't enough. You will literally never see a leap like that again from both AMD and Nvidia.

FreedomEclipse said:

Energy Efficiency is the new buzz word these days
And at the same time one of the most insignificant aspect of these products turned into a massive thing by tech sites/reviewers and fanboys. No consumer truly gives a shit they pay 2 extra bucks for their electricity bill each month or that the added cost of that over whatever X amount of years turns into a somewhat significant amount that would otherwise matter.
Posted on Reply
#12
Slizzo
lynx29 said:
I wish AMD would start making their own RAM again. They did for awhile. If Vega 2 can do halfway decent... man I would love to build an all AMD rig just to spite all these greedy companies, even if it meant a little less performance but better bang for my buck.

Come on AMD. Come back in a big way this year. I'm still being patient.
AMD didn't actually make the memory. It's was just rebranded Hynix or Samsung memory.
Posted on Reply
#13
cadaveca
My name is Dave
lynx29 said:
I wish AMD would start making their own RAM again.
Slizzo said:
AMD didn't actually make the memory. It's was just rebranded Hynix or Samsung memory.
Patriot made the DDR3 memory with AMD branding; AMD didn't actually have much at all to do with it.
Posted on Reply
#14
Manu_PT
Vya Domus said:
Regardless , my point still stands. That was the last time they made the fastest card they possibly could with gaming in mind and they also undercut the completion by a significant margin. One can't realistically ask for more, yet it still wasn't enough. You will literally never see a leap like that again from both AMD and Nvidia.



And at the same time one of the most insignificant aspect of these products turned into a massive thing by tech sites/reviewers and fanboys. No consumer truly gives a shit they pay 2 extra bucks for their electricity bill each month or that the added cost of that over whatever X amount of years turns into a somewhat significant amount that would otherwise matter.
You obviously don´t live in a country where electricity is very expensive. In my country everyone pays attention to every single detail about some product power consumption. It can end on a 500€ saving at the end of year if you combine all possible lowest power consumption devices instead of going for more power hungry ones. The fact AMD didn´t have a single product that was better than a nvidia model, and it used more power to produce the same plus low availability due to mining craze, made things go this way. Simple. Is not because of fanboys or tech sites. Is all together.

AMD Vega was not competitive enough, simple.
Posted on Reply
#15
Vya Domus
Manu_PT said:
You obviously don´t live in a country where electricity is very expensive. In my country everyone pays attention to every single detail about some product power consumption. It can end on a 500€ saving at the end of year if you combine all possible lowest power consumption devices instead of going for more power hungry ones. The fact AMD didn´t have a single product that was better than a nvidia model, and it used more power to produce the same plus low availability due to mining craze, made things go this way. Simple. Is not because of fanboys or tech sites. Is all together.

AMD Vega was not competitive enough, simple.
Wasn't talking about Vega. Vega is actually the result of past product releases and their success , like the 290X.
Posted on Reply
#16
Zaxx420
Imagine that. Be glad when the ass-rapping is over with...robbin' bastards.
Posted on Reply
#17
Planet
MopeyMartian said:
Money talks louder than words. If everyone refused to pay their fixed prices they'd go back to normal real quick.
Even if all enthusiasts stopped buying DRAM it would be quickly snatched up by guys like Amazon, Google, Facebook that are constantly building and upgrading large data centers.
Posted on Reply
#18
lynx29
cadaveca said:
Patriot made the DDR3 memory with AMD branding; AMD didn't actually have much at all to do with it.
I did not know this, thanks for the info. Well hopefully Crucial will keep undercutting all the other companies to keep them in line. Seems to be a theme with them, and I plan to buy Crucial moving forward for my ram needs just because of their good business practice on the matter.
Posted on Reply
#19
TheGuruStud
Based on historical trends, the DRAM industry will likely experience a decline (possibly a big market decline) in its growth rate in the not-too-distant future as prices begin to tumble with significant capacity additions and an increase in DRAM output expected over the next year or two.


EL O Fing EL. I've heard this crap before...OVER 1 YEAR AGO. They are not increasing production for general consumption. It's for enterprise and embedded (phones). I guess this is the new mantra.
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